Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[Jet]

So, in this cyclical argument that we've been having for what seems like forever, here are some undeniable facts:

Ehlers, despite all of his positive advanced stats still doesn't get the prime icetime and trust of THREE coaches now. His usage has remained static, although this year he's getting PP1 time (which I can see being clawed back if he continues to try and force passes for turnovers).

There are valid arguments on both sides. You can't really argue too much with the stats side, his numbers are far superior to pretty much any other Jets forward. The eye test peeps have a valid complaint about how Ehlers needs to make a better choice with the puck on his forays into the offensive zone.

Why do people think he continues to be utilized the way he does by so many coaches (keep in mind it's not just the 3 HC's it's all of the assistants who have a say, plus KC and MC who seem to have some input into this.

Surely they don't hate him? What is driving this?

I wonder if we as a group can climb off the hills we are standing on, avoid the strawmen, non sequitirs, and personal attacks and just try to think about the why from a logical perspective.

In my mind, here are a few reasonable, non conspiracy theory arguments:

• He just can't manage more than the minutes he's getting (this could be supported by how he gets off the ice first, and his health issues in his career)
• Many coaches so far do not want to accept the risk in his game (though he has great stats, situationally in isolation if you are up a goal, one of his high risk passes could end up in our net and potentially lead to a loss)
• The team has statistics that are either not being used by the fandom, or they put weight on other metrics more than what the stats guys do.
• BONUS REASON: They want all our players playing the same way, to form unity, reinforce the system, and ensure plug and play up and down the lines

Anyone want to take a shot at a honest, as unbiased as possible stab at the answer?

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

I don't think that Ehlers is better than i think. I like him a lot. BUT I also see the things that may make him difficult or frustrating to play with - which is (in my opinion) why we see Schief and Connor glued together at the hip

Just saying to Schief "you should play with Ehlers because your advanced stats are better with him than without him" won't mean anything if playing with Ehlers frustrates him and makes him dislike coming to the rink. At the end of the day, these guys want to enjoy their work as much as they can - just like the rest of us

You can't boil a hockey game or season down to a bunch of numbers anymore than you can boil a symphony down to auditory frequencies, a work of art down to visual wavelengths or falling in love into phermonal chemical reactions. I mean you COULD, but you'd be missing out on the beauty of all of them

There's more to playing hockey than generating pretty heat graphs and nice spreadsheets. There is emotion, creativity, etc. Same can be said for the locker room experirience. I think sometimes statwatchers lose sight of that, or don't understand it because they've never experienced it

Honestly if im paying soneone 8+ mill a season they play with whoever and come to the rink happy

Thanks, bucko. I'll do that

Why you always scrappin?!!

So, in this cyclical argument that we've been having for what seems like forever, here are some undeniable facts:

Ehlers, despite all of his positive advanced stats still doesn't get the prime icetime and trust of THREE coaches now. His usage has remained static, although this year he's getting PP1 time (which I can see being clawed back if he continues to try and force passes for turnovers).

There are valid arguments on both sides. You can't really argue too much with the stats side, his numbers are far superior to pretty much any other Jets forward. The eye test peeps have a valid complaint about how Ehlers needs to make a better choice with the puck on his forays into the offensive zone.

Why do people think he continues to be utilized the way he does by so many coaches (keep in mind it's not just the 3 HC's it's all of the assistants who have a say, plus KC and MC who seem to have some input into this.

Surely they don't hate him? What is driving this?

I wonder if we as a group can climb off the hills we are standing on, avoid the strawmen, non sequitirs, and personal attacks and just try to think about the why from a logical perspective.

In my mind, here are a few reasonable, non conspiracy theory arguments:

• He just can't manage more than the minutes he's getting (this could be supported by how he gets off the ice first, and his health issues in his career)
• Many coaches so far do not want to accept the risk in his game (though he has great stats, situationally in isolation if you are up a goal, one of his high risk passes could end up in our net and potentially lead to a loss)
• The team has statistics that are either not being used by the fandom, or they put weight on other metrics more than what the stats guys do.
• BONUS REASON: They want all our players playing the same way, to form unity, reinforce the system, and ensure plug and play up and down the lines

Anyone want to take a shot at a honest, as unbiased as possible stab at the answer?

No clearly they hate him.

 

[Buffdog]

Honestly if im paying soneone 8+ mill a season they play with whoever and come to the rink happy


Why you always scrappin?!!


No clearly they hate him.

You wouldn't be paying schief anything to come to the rink because he likely doesn't extend without some reassurance that he gets input into who he plays with

And without schief, goodbye helle - and then connor

It's time for everyone to just accept that Connor and Schief are going to play together and end up on the short end of things at 5v5 more often than not while still ending up as a net positive when special teams are factored in

Add Helle to that and we still come out ahead vs the alternative

I'm always scrapping becaue some people just can't wrap their heads around this

 

[bumblebeeman]

So, in this cyclical argument that we've been having for what seems like forever, here are some undeniable facts:

Ehlers, despite all of his positive advanced stats still doesn't get the prime icetime and trust of THREE coaches now. His usage has remained static, although this year he's getting PP1 time (which I can see being clawed back if he continues to try and force passes for turnovers).

There are valid arguments on both sides. You can't really argue too much with the stats side, his numbers are far superior to pretty much any other Jets forward. The eye test peeps have a valid complaint about how Ehlers needs to make a better choice with the puck on his forays into the offensive zone.

Why do people think he continues to be utilized the way he does by so many coaches (keep in mind it's not just the 3 HC's it's all of the assistants who have a say, plus KC and MC who seem to have some input into this.

Surely they don't hate him? What is driving this?

I wonder if we as a group can climb off the hills we are standing on, avoid the strawmen, non sequitirs, and personal attacks and just try to think about the why from a logical perspective.

In my mind, here are a few reasonable, non conspiracy theory arguments:

• He just can't manage more than the minutes he's getting (this could be supported by how he gets off the ice first, and his health issues in his career)
• Many coaches so far do not want to accept the risk in his game (though he has great stats, situationally in isolation if you are up a goal, one of his high risk passes could end up in our net and potentially lead to a loss)
• The team has statistics that are either not being used by the fandom, or they put weight on other metrics more than what the stats guys do.
• BONUS REASON: They want all our players playing the same way, to form unity, reinforce the system, and ensure plug and play up and down the lines

Anyone want to take a shot at a honest, as unbiased as possible stab at the answer?

I don't think Ehlers gets less icetime because of him, but because he is on a weaker line. Why it's Vilardi and not him on the first line, who knows. Maybe it's Scheifele's preference, or maybe the coaches want Ehlers driving the 3rd line that they think needs his skill set more. But really the team as been very successful post Dubois trade with mostly this lineup, and that success is probably the biggest reason for sticking with how things are.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I don't think Ehlers gets less icetime because of him, but because he is on a weaker line. Why it's Vilardi and not him on the first line, who knows. Maybe it's Scheifele's preference, or maybe the coaches want Ehlers driving the 3rd line that they think needs his skill set more. But really the team as been very successful post Dubois trade with mostly this lineup, and that success is probably the biggest reason for sticking with how things are.

It's Villardi as every line should have size. A guy who goes to the net not three perimeter players. Villardi's job is to get greasy goals off of rebounds from Kc's shots which Schief sets up.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So, in this cyclical argument that we've been having for what seems like forever, here are some undeniable facts:

Ehlers, despite all of his positive advanced stats still doesn't get the prime icetime and trust of THREE coaches now. His usage has remained static, although this year he's getting PP1 time (which I can see being clawed back if he continues to try and force passes for turnovers).

There are valid arguments on both sides. You can't really argue too much with the stats side, his numbers are far superior to pretty much any other Jets forward. The eye test peeps have a valid complaint about how Ehlers needs to make a better choice with the puck on his forays into the offensive zone.

Why do people think he continues to be utilized the way he does by so many coaches (keep in mind it's not just the 3 HC's it's all of the assistants who have a say, plus KC and MC who seem to have some input into this.

Surely they don't hate him? What is driving this?

I wonder if we as a group can climb off the hills we are standing on, avoid the strawmen, non sequitirs, and personal attacks and just try to think about the why from a logical perspective.

In my mind, here are a few reasonable, non conspiracy theory arguments:

• He just can't manage more than the minutes he's getting (this could be supported by how he gets off the ice first, and his health issues in his career)
• Many coaches so far do not want to accept the risk in his game (though he has great stats, situationally in isolation if you are up a goal, one of his high risk passes could end up in our net and potentially lead to a loss)
• The team has statistics that are either not being used by the fandom, or they put weight on other metrics more than what the stats guys do.
• BONUS REASON: They want all our players playing the same way, to form unity, reinforce the system, and ensure plug and play up and down the lines

Anyone want to take a shot at a honest, as unbiased as possible stab at the answer?

My theory - It is not the coaches making the decision. They have made the decision to let Scheifele make the decision, and he prefers playing with Connor to playing with Ehlers. I don't think he hates Ehlers, but he prefers KC.

If the coaches felt strongly enough that this hurts the team - more than a little - they would overrule Scheifele. They are willing to go along.

Additionally I think there is merit in a couple of your suggestions. "Many coaches so far do not want to accept the risk in his game (though he has great stats, situationally in isolation if you are up a goal, one of his high risk passes could end up in our net and potentially lead to a loss)" and "BONUS REASON: They want all our players playing the same way, to form unity, reinforce the system, and ensure plug and play up and down the lines".

Those last 2 explain why the coaches are willing to defer to Scheifele. Plus, keeping him happy matters.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't think that Ehlers is better than i think. I like him a lot. BUT I also see the things that may make him difficult or frustrating to play with - which is (in my opinion) why we see Schief and Connor glued together at the hip

Just saying to Schief "you should play with Ehlers because your advanced stats are better with him than without him" won't mean anything if playing with Ehlers frustrates him and makes him dislike coming to the rink. At the end of the day, these guys want to enjoy their work as much as they can - just like the rest of us

You can't boil a hockey game or season down to a bunch of numbers anymore than you can boil a symphony down to auditory frequencies, a work of art down to visual wavelengths or falling in love into phermonal chemical reactions. I mean you COULD, but you'd be missing out on the beauty of all of them

There's more to playing hockey than generating pretty heat graphs and nice spreadsheets. There is emotion, creativity, etc. Same can be said for the locker room experirience. I think sometimes statwatchers lose sight of that, or don't understand it because they've never experienced it

How about saying to Scheif, "you should play with Ehlers because you score more G and A when you are with him"? Those are not advanced stats.

You wouldn't be paying schief anything to come to the rink because he likely doesn't extend without some reassurance that he gets input into who he plays with

And without schief, goodbye helle - and then connor

It's time for everyone to just accept that Connor and Schief are going to play together and end up on the short end of things at 5v5 more often than not while still ending up as a net positive when special teams are factored in

Add Helle to that and we still come out ahead vs the alternative

I'm always scrapping becaue some people just can't wrap their heads around this

I can wrap my head around the inevitability of death, taxes and KC / Scheif together.

I don't have to like any of those things.

 

[Buffdog]

How about saying to Scheif, "you should play with Ehlers because you score more G and A when you are with him"? Those are not advanced stats.



I can wrap my head around the inevitability of death, taxes and KC / Scheif together.

I don't have to like any of those things.

Who knows what the thought process of a 31 year old millionaire is. He might be difficult to reason with

 

[KingBogo]

You wouldn't be paying schief anything to come to the rink because he likely doesn't extend without some reassurance that he gets input into who he plays with

And without schief, goodbye helle - and then connor

It's time for everyone to just accept that Connor and Schief are going to play together and end up on the short end of things at 5v5 more often than not while still ending up as a net positive when special teams are factored in

Add Helle to that and we still come out ahead vs the alternative

I'm always scrapping becaue some people just can't wrap their heads around this

There are also other game situations other than 5-5 and special teams that contribute to winning. In the last 2 games Scheifele has 2 6-5 goals and a 3-3 goal. This is also part of hockey and without that we don’t win the last 2 games. And all 3 of those goals are considered even strength.

 

[KingBogo]

My theory - It is not the coaches making the decision. They have made the decision to let Scheifele make the decision, and he prefers playing with Connor to playing with Ehlers. I don't think he hates Ehlers, but he prefers KC.

If the coaches felt strongly enough that this hurts the team - more than a little - they would overrule Scheifele. They are willing to go along.

Additionally I think there is merit in a couple of your suggestions. "Many coaches so far do not want to accept the risk in his game (though he has great stats, situationally in isolation if you are up a goal, one of his high risk passes could end up in our net and potentially lead to a loss)" and "BONUS REASON: They want all our players playing the same way, to form unity, reinforce the system, and ensure plug and play up and down the lines".

Those last 2 explain why the coaches are willing to defer to Scheifele. Plus, keeping him happy matters.

So all 3 coaches that have coached the team all defer to Scheifele to run the team? This includes the coach who just won the cup in Florida who had to manage some pretty big egos to get it done. This conspiracy theory is more plausible to you than a coach wanting Ehlers to drive the 2nd line for example?

 

[Buffdog]

So all 3 coaches that have coached the team all defer to Scheifele to run the team? This includes the coach who just won the cup in Florida who had to manage some pretty big egos to get it done. This conspiracy theory is more plausible to you than a coach wanting Ehlers to drive the 2nd line for example?

I personally think it's a bit of both, plus other factors

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So all 3 coaches that have coached the team all defer to Scheifele to run the team? This includes the coach who just won the cup in Florida who had to manage some pretty big egos to get it done. This conspiracy theory is more plausible to you than a coach wanting Ehlers to drive the 2nd line for example?

I think it is probably pretty much SOP in the NHL for the top players to get that kind of consideration. So 1 coach or 30, no difference. As long as none of the coaches is named Tortorella. I would find it much harder to believe that it is not this way than that it is. It is not deferring to 1 player, or group of players to "run the team". It is having their preference for linemates recognized and accepted.

You've stated that idea several times. I'm skeptical though it is a possibility. It keeps working poorly at the cost of the 1st line also working poorly. Through the same 3 coaches.

 

[KingBogo]

I think it is probably pretty much SOP in the NHL for the top players to get that kind of consideration. So 1 coach or 30, no difference. As long as none of the coaches is named Tortorella. I would find it much harder to believe that it is not this way than that it is. It is not deferring to 1 player, or group of players to "run the team". It is having their preference for linemates recognized and accepted.

You've stated that idea several times. I'm skeptical though it is a possibility. It keeps working poorly at the cost of the 1st line also working poorly. Through the same 3 coaches.

You keep saying the 1st line is working so poorly when they virtually won us the last 2 games and we are 3-0. And if you go look at the advanced stats the 1st line is miles ahead of the 2nd line by any measure possible so far this season.

 

[Buffdog]

You keep saying the 1st line is working so poorly when they virtually won us the last 2 games and we are 3-0. And if you go look at the advanced stats the 1st line is miles ahead of the 2nd line by any measure possible so far this season.

It's crazy that this board can find two 40 goal scorers to use as whipping boys

 

[Bender Duster]

It's crazy that this board can find two 40 goal scorers to use as whipping boys

You mean the same board that picks apart every goal our Vezina winning goalie lets in?

 

[KingBogo]

It's crazy that this board can find two 40 goal scorers to use as whipping boys

I don't even want to think where this team would be without Schiefele's and Connor's offense. My guess is unless Helly got a shutout every 2nd game or so we would soon be in draft lottery discussions.

 

[Flair Hay]

It's crazy that this board can find two 40 goal scorers to use as whipping boys

I don't even think the Scheif and Connor are whipping boys for most of the board. There is a good chunk of people who want them to be potentially even better, on seperate lines, 5 on 5.

I'm sure there are some that don't like either or both, but I think the board overall likes all our good players?

I don't even want to think where this team would be without Schiefele's and Connor's offense. My guess is unless Helly got a shutout every 2nd game or so we would soon be in draft lottery discussions.

No question, we need these guys badly lol

 

[Flair Hay]

You keep saying the 1st line is working so poorly when they virtually won us the last 2 games and we are 3-0. And if you go look at the advanced stats the 1st line is miles ahead of the 2nd line by any measure possible so far this season.

Depends if we are talking 3 seasons or 3 games.

 

[KingBogo]

Depends if we are talking 3 seasons or 3 games.

What’s your personal breakdown of the last few years of advanced stats as there is many ways to break it down? What advanced stats that you think are most telling of performance? What ones are less helpful? I’ll share first as my biggest concern is xGF% as it doesn’t take into skill. Me and Tom Brady in is prime could be in the same position to throw a touchdown pass, but I’m guessing he will have a better percentage then me. Similarly KC is much more likely to score in any given situation than let’s say Kupari so how valuable is xGF% when comparing players with dramatically different offensive skills?

 

[Buffdog]

I don't even think the Scheif and Connor are whipping boys for most of the board. There is a good chunk of people who want them to be potentially even better, on seperate lines, 5 on 5.

I'm sure there are some that don't like either or both, but I think the board overall likes all our good players?


No question, we need these guys badly lol

We are 3-0 and there are posters who want to bring up their 5v5 xGF% for f***s sake - even though they've been the offensive heros

They're always going to play together. Get over it.

Some people just aren't happy unless they aren't happy

 

[Flair Hay]

We are 3-0 and there are posters who want to bring up their 5v5 xGF% for f***s sake - even though they've been the offensive heros

They're always going to play together. Get over it.

Some people just aren't happy unless they aren't happy

Yeah I don't think that stats from your first paragraph is meaningful either. With you there.

Get over it, well I'm still optimistic that could change. Or the results themselves do. Doesn't mean I'll stop arguing against the merit if switching. If that information starts to change I'll be right there with it.

 

[Jack7222]

We are 3-0 and there are posters who want to bring up their 5v5 xGF% for f***s sake - even though they've been the offensive heros

They're always going to play together. Get over it.

Some people just aren't happy unless they aren't happy

Lol come on man. The whole reason anyone is even talking about this right now is because you started going off about the stats guys being in shambles after Schief and Connor scoring some goals and Ehlers line doing badly. Don't turn around and act like people are dumbasses for engaging with the topic you yourself brought up.

 

[Flair Hay]

What’s your personal breakdown of the last few years of advanced stats as there is many ways to break it down? What advanced stats that you think are most telling of performance? What ones are less helpful? I’ll share first as my biggest concern is xGF% as it doesn’t take into skill. Me and Tom Brady in is prime could be in the same position to throw a touchdown pass, but I’m guessing he will have a better percentage then me. Similarly KC is much more likely to score in any given situation than let’s say Kupari so how valuable is xGF% when comparing players with dramatically different offensive skills?

The stats that show how Scheifele and Ehlers outscore teams together by a pretty big margin, and Connor and Scheifele do not. Over the past few years.

It paints such a clear picture. Ehlers better with Scheifele. Scheifele better with Ehlers. Connor better away from Scheifele. It doesn't take anything advanced.

It's being framed as if it's numbers being manipulated to suit a narrative. Or there is some advanced stuff the Jets are looking at we dont have. They may have that. Doesn’t mean its doing much good if they do... if the goals for and against results aren't there, what advanced shit is going to explain that away?

Why reference xGF when the actual GF% says the exact same thing? It's a big difference between the two pairings.

 

[Buffdog]

Yeah I don't think that stats from your first paragraph is meaningful either. With you there.

Get over it, well I'm still optimistic that could change. Or the results themselves do. Doesn't mean I'll stop arguing against the merit if switching. If that information starts to change I'll be right there with it.

Why do you want change so badly?

Do ypu think that we should have finished higher than fourth last season or that we should be better than 3-0?

Would you be happier if we were 1-2 but Schief and Ehlers were playing together and their xGF% was 61%? I get the sense that some of you would be

Lol come on man. The whole reason anyone is even talking about this right now is because you started going off about the stats guys being in shambles after Schief and Connor scoring some goals and Ehlers line doing badly. Don't turn around and act like people are dumbasses for engaging with the topic you yourself brought up.

I brought this up? I did not. I replied to a poster who replied to the guy that did bring it up, though

 

[voyageur]

I don't even think the Scheif and Connor are whipping boys for most of the board. There is a good chunk of people who want them to be potentially even better, on seperate lines, 5 on 5.

I'm sure there are some that don't like either or both, but I think the board overall likes all our good players?


No question, we need these guys badly lol

I don't know these boards are a good place to piss on players, and everyone gets it. Some more than others. But the grass isn't greener. Is it true that the Jets only sold less than 9 000 season tickets? Do the Jets eventually spend well behind the Cap threshhold if fans stop investing in the team?