Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[Buffdog]

I don't like a game where Jets get badly outplayed but win. This is usually reflected in the shot count. The Edm game did not fall into that category. Jets were outshot by a wide margin. This would make the spreadsheet look bad but it was mostly a result of the score effect. Jets played well in that game.

It is not about the spreadsheets. No one cares if they look pretty or not. People do care if the team is playing well or not. There will always be games where they play badly and win and other games where they play well and lose. Some of that will be down to goaltending being better at one end than at the other. But a badly played win tends to lead to more bad play - and losses.

I overlook some stupid shit by Ehlers, not because he makes the spreadsheets look pretty but because he makes up for it with the good stuff. It is the good stuff that makes the spreadsheets look pretty. More bad play than good leads to ugly spreadsheets.

We can all have our hierchy of how we view games in terms of enjoyment, satisfaction, etc

For me (from most enjoyable to least), it's:

1. We ousthoot opponent and win
2. We get outshot and win
3. We outshoot and lose
4. We get outshot and lose

I swear some people just aren't happy unless it's #1. We can even outshoot our opponent and win and people will bitch if CSV gets outchanced, or their favorite pet player doesn't get the usage they think they should.

Those fans know who they are

Also, I'll mention that in all 4 of those scenarios, I still get enjoyment from watching the Jets play, regardless of outcome

 

[JetsFan815]

why are we trading iaffalo?

They were responding to a scenario where "the jets are on the outside looking in", in that situation Iafallo is probably the easiest trade to make both in terms of the market for him and the Jets willingness to trade him from that spot.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We can all have our hierchy of how we view games in terms of enjoyment, satisfaction, etc

For me (from most enjoyable to least), it's:

1. We ousthoot opponent and win
2. We get outshot and win
3. We outshoot and lose
4. We get outshot and lose

I swear some people just aren't happy unless it's #1. We can even outshoot our opponent and win and people will bitch if CSV gets outchanced, or their favorite pet player doesn't get the usage they think they should.

Those fans know who they are

Also, I'll mention that in all 4 of those scenarios, I still get enjoyment from watching the Jets play, regardless of outcome

I don't enjoy 3 & 4 much. #3 is frustrating and #4 is disappointing and frustrating.

I would prefer using outplayed rather than outshot. I do watch the shot clock quite a bit but it doesn't always reflect the play. I also watch the SA for where they are coming from, in close vs perimeter and are the saves tough or easy. Same with the SF.

Sometimes there is an exception to #3. If it is a good, hard fought, fairly even game I can be disappointed by the outcome and still enjoy watching. I like a game like that where there is a fair amount of scoring and the lead changes hands back and forth.

 

[DRW204]

I think Ehlers makes sense for the Jets long term if it's in the 7M range. The cap is going up and the Jets will have some room on the wings once Nino and Appleton and Iafallo move on.

However, it really depends on whether Arniel is open to expanding his line concept to try to build a more versatile top 9 and more impact from the 4th line. I liked that he tried flipping Nino and Ehlers to generate a bit more offence. But I expect Arniel will stick to a defensive 2nd line led by Lowry.

My take early this season is that Namestnikov and Perfetti have been weak parts of that 3rd line. Namestnikov has messed up a number of offensive possessions and Perfetti needs to play a bit faster and more aggressively with the puck. I actually think that moving Kupari or Lambert into the C role with Perfetti and Ehlers makes some sense. Kupari is actually pretty good in the D zone and he's a good forechecker. He's starting to see the play better on offense and doesn't mind going to the net.

I have confidence that ehlers & perfetti will be fine as a duo. they were a bit slow last year to start however ended up fine & positive in net goals together.

ehlers has a strong track record of playing with a variety of different players or linemates, or play-styles, & that line ending up on the positive side on the net-goals. Perfetti does need to play much much better to the expectations & comparisons some throw around here.

just basing off last year, really this team was carried by their goaltending and middle-6. not talked about enough is how scheifele's line is often on a negative side of the 5v5 game w/o ehlers, & really does not really carry this team at 5v5. maybe it's their duty be the sacrificial lamb against other teams . how many PO/successful team's top line's have a similar strategy or can attest to this (i'll defer to others on this) it was 1 month where scheifele's line really carried this team in net goals. otherwise like i mentioned, this is a team where at 5v5 it's predominantly the middle 6 carrying them.

 

[Buffdog]

I don't enjoy 3 & 4 much. #3 is frustrating and #4 is disappointing and frustrating.

I would prefer using outplayed rather than outshot. I do watch the shot clock quite a bit but it doesn't always reflect the play. I also watch the SA for where they are coming from, in close vs perimeter and are the saves tough or easy. Same with the SF.

Sometimes there is an exception to #3. If it is a good, hard fought, fairly even game I can be disappointed by the outcome and still enjoy watching. I like a game like that where there is a fair amount of scoring and the lead changes hands back and forth.

The reason I don't hate outshooting another team and losing to then is because we do it to other teams all the time lol

 

[Whileee]

Oddly, considering my wanting him waived out of TC, I like the idea of moving Kupari up. I had thought of that earlier in the context of what might get him going. Maybe better wingers would be the answer.

I wouldn't commit too hard to it of course, but it definitely would be worth a try. Especially since that line is floundering anyway.

What Kupari does is create pressure all over the ice with his size and speed, and he's shown some nice decisions with the puck. Perfetti and Ehlers can dangle and create offense but they might benefit from a C that can close gaps and support them defensively and on the forecheck.

I'd bet that Kupari wouldn't clear waivers. NHL teams keep a close tab on players, even if they haven't shown much in game action. It's becoming clear that Kupari generated a lot of positive buzz in training camp with coaches and players, and he's starting to show his skillset and potential in games now. He seems like a player that was rushed in development and then held back by injuries. He is now playing with two effective wingers in Barron and Iafallo, and they've been the Jets' most effective line through two games.

 

[DRW204]

But if he hasn't "meshed well" or was "unpredictable and difficult to play with", then why does the team consistently do better when he's on the ice?

if people want to shit on unpredictable play-styles..... neal pionk defensively is numero uno. terrible defensively in all aspects and can be a mystery box in terms of puck movement. but crickets when it comes to him.

 

[Whileee]

We can all have our hierchy of how we view games in terms of enjoyment, satisfaction, etc

For me (from most enjoyable to least), it's:

1. We ousthoot opponent and win
2. We get outshot and win
3. We outshoot and lose
4. We get outshot and lose

I swear some people just aren't happy unless it's #1. We can even outshoot our opponent and win and people will bitch if CSV gets outchanced, or their favorite pet player doesn't get the usage they think they should.

Those fans know who they are

Also, I'll mention that in all 4 of those scenarios, I still get enjoyment from watching the Jets play, regardless of outcome

Two seasons ago the Jets were out-shooting and out-playing teams but in a big slump and losing because of poor finishing and mediocre goaltending. Everyone hated that version of the team, including the coaches. Last season, the Jets had stretches where they won with good finishing and goaltending, despite being outshot and out-played. They were appreciated by fans and coaches.

Hockey games are often very random and I often think that the shot and xG metrics are misleading. If a team is scoring on their chances, they often get fewer shots and xG while the losing team is taking shots from all over the place and maintaining pressure because nothing is going in. You really can't assess performance through shot pressure in blowout games, especially if the home team is getting blown out.

When you look at a typical slate of games, it's usual for a big discrepancy between xG and goals, and the game outcome. The shot metrics really have more assessment and predictive value over a much larger sample size than a single game.

 

[Heldig]

why are we trading iaffalo?

Just a hunch instead of him walking to UFA.

 

[gojetsgo]

Just a hunch instead of him walking to UFA.

if were in or near a playoff spot there would be no point in trading him, his value isn't that high

 

[DRW204]

if were in or near a playoff spot there would be no point in trading him, his value isn't that high

id be surprised if chevy made any trades involving players off the roster this early. ehlers, iafallo etc. this just isn't something he normally does. the 2 notable trade examples have been Kane+Bogo and Laine.... & those imo were primarily driven b/c of off ice stuff.

 

[Heldig]

if were in or near a playoff spot there would be no point in trading him, his value isn't that high

Unless...

Lambert earns a call up and/or Gustafsson replaces him on the 4th line.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

I have confidence that ehlers & perfetti will be fine as a duo. they were a bit slow last year to start however ended up fine & positive in net goals together.

ehlers has a strong track record of playing with a variety of different players or linemates, or play-styles, & that line ending up on the positive side on the net-goals. Perfetti does need to play much much better to the expectations & comparisons some throw around here.

just basing off last year, really this team was carried by their goaltending and middle-6. not talked about enough is how scheifele's line is often on a negative side of the 5v5 game w/o ehlers, & really does not really carry this team at 5v5. maybe it's their duty be the sacrificial lamb against other teams . how many PO/successful team's top line's have a similar strategy or can attest to this (i'll defer to others on this) it was 1 month where scheifele's line really carried this team in net goals. otherwise like i mentioned, this is a team where at 5v5 it's predominantly the middle 6 carrying them.

View attachment 916142

Pretty strong case for uniting ehlers and scheif haha

 

[voyageur]

Unless...

Lambert earns a call up and/or Gustafsson replaces him on the 4th line.

Gustafsson knows his role and he gets paid near the league minimum for it. Iafallo is a hockey player...He makes plays in both ends of the rink. Seems to be rarely in a bad position. Kind of like another #9 who played here.

Jets can call up as many players as they want after the deadline, no roster limits, just cap space.

 

[voyageur]

We can all have our hierchy of how we view games in terms of enjoyment, satisfaction, etc

For me (from most enjoyable to least), it's:

1. We ousthoot opponent and win
2. We get outshot and win
3. We outshoot and lose
4. We get outshot and lose

I swear some people just aren't happy unless it's #1. We can even outshoot our opponent and win and people will bitch if CSV gets outchanced, or their favorite pet player doesn't get the usage they think they should.

Those fans know who they are

Also, I'll mention that in all 4 of those scenarios, I still get enjoyment from watching the Jets play, regardless of outcome

I've come to accept that no matter how much you want to talk hockey on these boards...hockey players, hockey plays, hockey systems, or even about the opposing team, there is always a graph or a pie chart coloured to capture your attention, to grind an angle or an axe. Or a number that isn't relevant to the score of the game. I want a pie chart for blocked shots, 1 on 1 battles, missed passes in the scoring areas. Zone entries. Not just shots fired, and ex girlfriends.

 

[Buffdog]

I've come to accept that no matter how much you want to talk hockey on these boards...hockey players, hockey plays, hockey systems, or even about the opposing team, there is always a graph or a pie chart coloured to capture your attention, to grind an angle or an axe. Or a number that isn't relevant to the score of the game. I want a pie chart for blocked shots, 1 on 1 battles, missed passes in the scoring areas. Zone entries. Not just shots fired, and ex girlfriends.

Loose puck retrievals is another. Unforced turnovers and where on the ice they occur

I promise you that all teams track some or all of those to some extent

The statsnerds will tell you that those things aren't important because they'll show up in the spreadsheets they love, but that's not true in every case

 

[Flair Hay]

If we overpay it just paints us into a corner. Let’s first see if ehlers can be healthy all season and not serve up pizzas like he did tonight.

I think there is lots of room for a fair deal for Ehlers given his impact/performance (reg season + playoffs) and health.

 

[voyageur]

Loose puck retrievals is another. Unforced turnovers and where on the ice they occur

I promise you that all teams track some or all of those to some extent

The statsnerds will tell you that those things aren't important because they'll show up in the spreadsheets they love, but that's not true in every case

I appreciate statistics but I don't think there is any stat posted on here that the Jets don't already have access to. They have more data for sure than any of us commoners and probably different means of interpreting it, like the Ehlers argument based on a 5 game stretch of 12 goals that has become a rallying cry. So far top line look good. Once Vilardi finds his mojo could be a real force this year.

 

[Flair Hay]

Pretty strong case for uniting ehlers and scheif haha

It's pretty clear to see what the Jets can do to give themselves the best chance to win when it comes to line deployment. I have faith we will get there this season. There are other factors

I appreciate statistics but I don't think there is any stat posted on here that the Jets don't already have access to. They have more data for sure than any of us commoners and probably different means of interpreting it, like the Ehlers argument based on a 5 game stretch of 12 goals that has become a rallying cry. So far top line look good. Once Vilardi finds his mojo could be a real force this year.

I don't think anyone doubts the Jets have access to these fairly common stats posted here frequently.

 

[Whileee]

I've come to accept that no matter how much you want to talk hockey on these boards...hockey players, hockey plays, hockey systems, or even about the opposing team, there is always a graph or a pie chart coloured to capture your attention, to grind an angle or an axe. Or a number that isn't relevant to the score of the game. I want a pie chart for blocked shots, 1 on 1 battles, missed passes in the scoring areas. Zone entries. Not just shots fired, and ex girlfriends.

How about this stat to stimulate discussion...

Connor blocks shots at a rate that is about 60% less frequent than the next lowest Jets forwards, even though he gets some PK time.

Ehlers has more than twice as many hits per 60 minutes than Connor.

 

[LowLefty]

How about this stat to stimulate discussion...

Connor blocks shots at a rate that is about 60% less frequent than the next lowest Jets forwards, even though he gets some PK time.

Ehlers has more than twice as many hits per 60 minutes than Connor.

Conner isn't out there to block shots - he's there to strip pucks up high and put pressure on the D (PK'ing) - as for 5v5, is this really how we want to measure highly skilled forwards?.
Ehlers hits? He's usually the guy that's picking himself up (while wincing) after most of his "hits" - he'd likely play more games and have the opportunity to use his "skill" if he wasn't as physical as he tries to be. Which brings us back to 81.

 

[Buffdog]

How about this stat to stimulate discussion...

Connor blocks shots at a rate that is about 60% less frequent than the next lowest Jets forwards, even though he gets some PK time.

Ehlers has more than twice as many hits per 60 minutes than Connor.

Clearly the other team has the puck more when Ehlers is on the ice

Can't hit someone or block a shot when your team has the puck

 

[Whileee]

Conner isn't out there to block shots - he's there to strip pucks up high and put pressure on the D (PK'ing) - as for 5v5, is this really how we want to measure highly skilled forwards?.
Ehlers hits? He's usually the guy that's picking himself up (while wincing) after most of his "hits" - he'd likely play more games and have the opportunity to use his "skill" if he wasn't as physical as he tries to be. Which brings us back to 81.

I was responding to a poster that specifically wanted more discussion about other stats like blocked shots.

I don't put much stock in those, except that you'd expect Connor to block a few more shots (even deflections are counted as blocks, I think). He tends to shy away from shooting lanes.

In the end, there are a number of metrics that can be used, and Ehlers has historically graded well on most of them.

However, his play this season through pre-season and the first three games has been really disappointing. I wonder if the contract situation and usage is putting him in a poor frame of mind.

 

[voyageur]

How about this stat to stimulate discussion...

Connor blocks shots at a rate that is about 60% less frequent than the next lowest Jets forwards, even though he gets some PK time.

Ehlers has more than twice as many hits per 60 minutes than Connor.

Which guy has more breakaway goals over their career? I think Connor looks dangerous on that PK, because if shoots the gap he's gone.

I do like more skill on the PK. Nice to see Josh contributing. He and Fleury have covered a lot of ice when De Melo has been in the box, and Pionk has been able to step up on the 1st unit effectively.

The coyote is wily, but the roadrunner is quick. All due respect.

 

[LowLefty]

I was responding to a poster that specifically wanted more discussion about other stats like blocked shots.

I don't put much stock in those, except that you'd expect Connor to block a few more shots (even deflections are counted as blocks, I think). He tends to shy away from shooting lanes.

In the end, there are a number of metrics that can be used, and Ehlers has historically graded well on most of them.

However, his play this season through pre-season and the first three games has been really disappointing. I wonder if the contract situation and usage is putting him in a poor frame of mind.

That's fair - I didn't consider context in your post .

But I don't rank either of those points very high with small, skilled players - they are not out there to do much on those fronts and for good reason.

As for Ehlers and his year up to this point, it's frustrating and might be contract related or even usage. If it's contract, we have a problem - the org will need to deal with it.

On the topic of usage, I find that he tries to do more with less sometimes - meaning when is he is out there with 55/81, he is very much aware of his line mates and puts a lot more effort into playmaking and general execution as a line. IOW's, he's not trying to do as much on his own. The opposite might be the case when he's playing with others - just a thought.