Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[Adam da bomb]

I think there is lots of room for a fair deal for Ehlers given his impact/performance (reg season + playoffs) and health.

Considering his impact this season.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Loose puck retrievals is another. Unforced turnovers and where on the ice they occur

I promise you that all teams track some or all of those to some extent

The statsnerds will tell you that those things aren't important because they'll show up in the spreadsheets they love, but that's not true in every case

How is it not true in any case? Tracking all of those other things provides useful information. But they all show up in shot attempts. They can either lead to a shot attempt by one team or the other team or they can suppress a shot attempt by one team or the other.

 

[Buffdog]

How is it not true in any case? Tracking all of those other things provides useful information. But they all show up in shot attempts. They can either lead to a shot attempt by one team or the other team or they can suppress a shot attempt by one team or the other.

Huh?

Example: Ehlers carries the puck into the zone, does two laps then turns it over up high by the blue line. Everyone on the Jets busts their asses to get back and they prevent the opposition from getting a shot off. The puck turns over and heads back up the ice and rhe Jets change

No shot attempt recorded but the stats don't reflect anything different from if Ehlers would have just cycled it down low instead of giving it away at blue line

BUT every Jet on the ice with Ehlers is pissed because they went from O zone time to busting their ass on a backcheck for no good reason

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Huh?

Example: Ehlers carries the puck into the zone, does two laps then turns it over up high by the blue line. Everyone on the Jets busts their asses to get back and they prevent the opposition from getting a shot off. The puck turns over and heads back up the ice and rhe Jets change

No shot attempt recorded but the stats don't reflect anything different from if Ehlers would have just cycled it down low instead of giving it away at blue line

BUT every Jet on the ice with Ehlers is pissed because they went from O zone time to busting their ass on a backcheck for no good reason

If no shot attempt was recorded then there is 1 less shot attempt recorded than there would have been if he had played it differently. And, in your example, the puck turned over and headed up the ice. Did the opposition get off a shot attempt? If not, there was 30 seconds of play with no SA by either side. That is a fact that shows up in the totals at the end of the game.

Does every Jet on the ice being pissed not affect their play which affects the total SA? What about the shot attempts they would have had if they had kept the puck in the O zone? Every single thing they do, or don't do, has some effect on the total shot attempts by both teams. If it doesn't lead to a SA by either team then it is the absence of a SA that could otherwise have been there. It is like that butterfly flapping its wings. Everything has a down stream effect.

 

[Whileee]

Huh?

Example: Ehlers carries the puck into the zone, does two laps then turns it over up high by the blue line. Everyone on the Jets busts their asses to get back and they prevent the opposition from getting a shot off. The puck turns over and heads back up the ice and rhe Jets change

No shot attempt recorded but the stats don't reflect anything different from if Ehlers would have just cycled it down low instead of giving it away at blue line

BUT every Jet on the ice with Ehlers is pissed because they went from O zone time to busting their ass on a backcheck for no good reason

Well sure, that might happen on occasion but the reality is that over the past 5 seasons the Jets have had more shot attempts, shots on goal and goals scored per 60 minutes with Ehlers on the ice than with any other forward (except Nino for shot attempts and shots). Ehlers is a clear leader in on-ice goals scored per 60. So, on average players playing with Ehlers get more shot attempts, more shots on goal and score more goals than when playing with other forwards. They also get better plus-minus stats, which can also help in contract negotiations.

 

[Buffdog]

If no shot attempt was recorded then there is 1 less shot attempt recorded than there would have been if he had played it differently. And, in your example, the puck turned over and headed up the ice. Did the opposition get off a shot attempt? If not, there was 30 seconds of play with no SA by either side. That is a fact that shows up in the totals at the end of the game.

Does every Jet on the ice being pissed not affect their play which affects the total SA? What about the shot attempts they would have had if they had kept the puck in the O zone? Every single thing they do, or don't do, has some effect on the total shot attempts by both teams. If it doesn't lead to a SA by either team then it is the absence of a SA that could otherwise have been there. It is like that butterfly flapping its wings. Everything has a down stream effect.

You're missing the point

Maybe the Jets get a shot attempt off if ehlers doesn't turn the puck over. Maybe they don't. But don't treat the sequence that I've outlined as equivalent to if the Jets cycled the puck around the perimeter, maintained possession and got a change in - all in the offensive zone

Or are you saying that the only thing that's important in the game is shot attempts? And not how they came to be? They aren't all equal. Some are presentable, some less so

 

[Whileee]

You're missing the point

Maybe the Jets get a shot attempt off if ehlers doesn't turn the puck over. Maybe they don't. But don't treat the sequence that I've outlined as equivalent to if the Jets cycled the puck around the perimeter, maintained possession and got a change in - all in the offensive zone

Or are you saying that the only thing that's important in the game is shot attempts? And not how they came to be? They aren't all equal. Some are presentable, some less so

Sure, but only 4 current forwards have fewer shot attempts against per 60 minutes than Ehlers over the past several seasons. So, on average whatever the process, the Jets give up few shots against when Ehlers is on the Jets ice. Same for goals against... the rates are low when Ehlers is on the ice.

 

[Gm0ney]

Great question... and it brings up another one

What's more important? The outcome, or how it's arrived at?

Seems like stats guys will overlook all the stupid shit Ehlers does because he makes the spreadsheets look pretty

But at the same time, they don't like a game that the Jets win if they got outchanced (or even if one line got outchanced)

Can't have your cake and eat it too

By the eye test, he seems high-risk/high-reward and coaches (and a lot of fans) just hate the high-risk part of that equation. But the "spreadsheets look pretty" because the results are good. The results are good, despite the bad stuff that sticks in our brains as Ehlers making a dumb play. He's far more reward than risk.

I think I speak on behalf of all Jets-fan stats-guys when I say that we're as happy as anyone to bank points when the Jets get outplayed and win anyway. We just like to occasionally point out that hey, pump the brakes, Line X is not playing well and it's going to come back and bite us (and maybe switching player Y and Z and firing Brad Lauer might help). Occasionally point out, or point it out all the time...it varies. And I know that sometimes seems like it's raining on the parade.

Not sure why I can't have my "Ehlers is better than you think" cake and eat the "didn't like Line X" cake as well. How many cakes are involved?

 

[DRW204]

Ehlers is a +56 over the last three full seasons at 5v5. The next best Jet is in the 20s. IMO if his play, process or whatever was as bad as being described when on the ice, the Jets would be feeling it negatively in the GF or GA department.

 

[DRW204]

Sure, but only 4 current forwards have fewer shot attempts against per 60 minutes than Ehlers over the past several seasons. So, on average whatever the process, the Jets give up few shots against when Ehlers is on the Jets ice. Same for goals against... the rates are low when Ehlers is on the ice.

Yeah his offense imo is moreso the catalyst to the good defensive numbers, rather than his actual defensive play. On a macro scale may not matter since at the end of the day it leads to less shots, chances or GA. However, I don't peg him as some good individual defensive fwd.

 

[bumblebeeman]

I really hope Ehlers reasons for a reasonable amount. I actually don't really care the amount it's not my money, he's just a good hockey player and fun to watch. Also seems like a good dude

 

[WolfHouse]

Funny how the anti-advanced stat crowd is kind of accidentally arguing for the use of advanced stats... Ehlers definitely has some moments where he coughs up the puck or cycles three times through the zone for no reason - those stand out more than when he puts the D off balances and opens space fo Scheif etc...

Scheif-Connor score sweet goals and this covers up for their defensive lapses or lack of backchecking (its coming later in the season dont worry...)

Advanced stats exists to be compared to the eye test and then reviewed if they conflict...

If players making $1 million a season minimum can't adjust to their team mates style and get 'huffy' about it - thats on the coaches...

What surprises me is that coaches ignored Ehlers chemsitry with Copp - ie a reliable D, speed forechecker with no hands but crashes the net... as in Barron or Kupari

If we are sticking with CSV and Lowry line - try Iafallo-Kupari-Ehlers and Barron-Names-Perfetti

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

What surprises me is that coaches ignored Ehlers chemsitry with Copp - ie a reliable D, speed forechecker with no hands but crashes the net... as in Barron or Kupari

If we are sticking with CSV and Lowry line - try Iafallo-Kupari-Ehlers and Barron-Names-Perfetti

I wondered about Ehlers with Vilardi being on the same line, and the top line going with a prototypical PF/banger instead. The two top lines, as they're currently constructed, will do fine (IMO) over the course of the season, but you'll still run into the same problems once the playoffs start.

The two most physical players on the top two lines (avoiding the semantics of what really is the 2nd line), are Scheifele who can do that here and there but can't sustain it, and Names in more of an aggressive way, and I'd hardly call him "physical". They're the heavy lifters along the boards and such, but they're in over their heads in that role over the course of an 82 game season. Everyone else gets rubbed out, especially the 2nd line, they'll all wear out by the 2nd half of the season, and will be pronounced dead once the playoffs begin.

We might have size on the team, but weight and physicality is really missing on the top 2 lines.

The problem that's really hard to workaround, is dividing up the minutes. They really could roll out 3 scoring lines, with a grunt on each line. As it is, they're too top-heavy with the skill-guys all bunched up together. Getting past the first few games that Arniel took over for Bowness last Fall, he did a very good of distributing the minutes a little more evenly.

I'm glad to see that KFC is moving his feet a lot more when he doesn't have the puck, and being more assertive in communicating. He seems like a different player this year.

At any rate, we're 3-0.

 

[Buffdog]

By the eye test, he seems high-risk/high-reward and coaches (and a lot of fans) just hate the high-risk part of that equation. But the "spreadsheets look pretty" because the results are good. The results are good, despite the bad stuff that sticks in our brains as Ehlers making a dumb play. He's far more reward than risk.

I think I speak on behalf of all Jets-fan stats-guys when I say that we're as happy as anyone to bank points when the Jets get outplayed and win anyway. We just like to occasionally point out that hey, pump the brakes, Line X is not playing well and it's going to come back and bite us (and maybe switching player Y and Z and firing Brad Lauer might help). Occasionally point out, or point it out all the time...it varies. And I know that sometimes seems like it's raining on the parade.

Not sure why I can't have my "Ehlers is better than you think" cake and eat the "didn't like Line X" cake as well. How many cakes are involved?

I don't think that Ehlers is better than i think. I like him a lot. BUT I also see the things that may make him difficult or frustrating to play with - which is (in my opinion) why we see Schief and Connor glued together at the hip

Just saying to Schief "you should play with Ehlers because your advanced stats are better with him than without him" won't mean anything if playing with Ehlers frustrates him and makes him dislike coming to the rink. At the end of the day, these guys want to enjoy their work as much as they can - just like the rest of us

You can't boil a hockey game or season down to a bunch of numbers anymore than you can boil a symphony down to auditory frequencies, a work of art down to visual wavelengths or falling in love into phermonal chemical reactions. I mean you COULD, but you'd be missing out on the beauty of all of them

There's more to playing hockey than generating pretty heat graphs and nice spreadsheets. There is emotion, creativity, etc. Same can be said for the locker room experirience. I think sometimes statwatchers lose sight of that, or don't understand it because they've never experienced it

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You're missing the point

Maybe the Jets get a shot attempt off if ehlers doesn't turn the puck over. Maybe they don't. But don't treat the sequence that I've outlined as equivalent to if the Jets cycled the puck around the perimeter, maintained possession and got a change in - all in the offensive zone

Or are you saying that the only thing that's important in the game is shot attempts? And not how they came to be? They aren't all equal. Some are presentable, some less so

I suggest it is you who are missing the point - and no, I am not saying that shot attempts are the only important thing. Nothing like that.

Everything that happens, every single thing, eventually influences shot attempts, one way or another. All of those other important things that you might like to see tracked have an influence on shot attempts. Some of them also affect shot quality, which is not reflected in simply counting shot attempts. Some of them can inform as to how to get more SA for and/or fewer against. Those other things are important. But it is simply wrong to state that things happen which do not affect the number of SA.

 

[Buffdog]

I suggest it is you who are missing the point - and no, I am not saying that shot attempts are the only important thing. Nothing like that.

Everything that happens, every single thing, eventually influences shot attempts, one way or another. All of those other important things that you might like to see tracked have an influence on shot attempts. Some of them also affect shot quality, which is not reflected in simply counting shot attempts. Some of them can inform as to how to get more SA for and/or fewer against. Those other things are important. But it is simply wrong to state that things happen which do not affect the number of SA.

At this point you're becoming philosophical.... "the butterfly flapping it's wings in Africa leads to a hurricane" type stuff

What I'm saying is that coaches and teammates HATE certain things that Ehlers does on the ice. Turnovers at the offensive zone blue line for example. When he does that and it leads to a shot attempt the other way, it's a sin. Same with turnovers at the d zone blueline

When you hear a player or coach say "we need to clean up our game", what it means it that they have to cut stupid shit like that out. Make the smart play

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

At this point you're becoming philosophical.... "the butterfly flapping it's wings in Africa leads to a hurricane" type stuff

What I'm saying is that coaches and teammates HATE certain things that Ehlers does on the ice. Turnovers at the offensive zone blue line for example. When he does that and it leads to a shot attempt the other way, it's a sin. Same with turnovers at the d zone blueline

When you hear a player or coach say "we need to clean up our game", what it means it that they have to cut stupid shit like that out. Make the smart play

I have no argument with any of that. But I'm not talking about any particular player.

You have talked about events that don't show up in the spreadsheets that count Corsi, shot attempts. I disagree. It all shows up. That does not make it unimportant. The important and the unimportant all show up.

As for Ehlers, you have to take the good with the bad. The same goes for all players. He is a good puck carrier. He is very good at zone exits and entries. But carrying the puck a lot means he is going to turn it over sometimes. His linemates need to be alert for that possibility. That's what makes him more work to play with.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

At this point you're becoming philosophical.... "the butterfly flapping it's wings in Africa leads to a hurricane" type stuff

Wait, I thought the butterfly had to flap its wings in China for that to happen. OMG, I'm so confused. This chaos theory is just too complicated for me.

 

[Flair Hay]

Considering his impact this season.

It's game 3 of the season, it's okay to zoom out a bit

 

[Flair Hay]

I don't think that Ehlers is better than i think. I like him a lot. BUT I also see the things that may make him difficult or frustrating to play with - which is (in my opinion) why we see Schief and Connor glued together at the hip

Just saying to Schief "you should play with Ehlers because your advanced stats are better with him than without him" won't mean anything if playing with Ehlers frustrates him and makes him dislike coming to the rink. At the end of the day, these guys want to enjoy their work as much as they can - just like the rest of us

You can't boil a hockey game or season down to a bunch of numbers anymore than you can boil a symphony down to auditory frequencies, a work of art down to visual wavelengths or falling in love into phermonal chemical reactions. I mean you COULD, but you'd be missing out on the beauty of all of them

There's more to playing hockey than generating pretty heat graphs and nice spreadsheets. There is emotion, creativity, etc. Same can be said for the locker room experirience. I think sometimes statwatchers lose sight of that, or don't understand it because they've never experienced it

The beauty and locker room experience of Scheifele and Connor vs the cold, lifeless spreadsheet numbers of Scheifele and Ehlers

Ehlers is a +56 over the last three full seasons at 5v5. The next best Jet is in the 20s. IMO if his play, process or whatever was as bad as being described when on the ice, the Jets would be feeling it negatively in the GF or GA department.

Scary part is it likely looks even better the more time he spends with Scheifele

 

[voyageur]

Funny how the anti-advanced stat crowd is kind of accidentally arguing for the use of advanced stats... Ehlers definitely has some moments where he coughs up the puck or cycles three times through the zone for no reason - those stand out more than when he puts the D off balances and opens space fo Scheif etc...

Scheif-Connor score sweet goals and this covers up for their defensive lapses or lack of backchecking (its coming later in the season dont worry...)

Advanced stats exists to be compared to the eye test and then reviewed if they conflict...

If players making $1 million a season minimum can't adjust to their team mates style and get 'huffy' about it - thats on the coaches...

What surprises me is that coaches ignored Ehlers chemsitry with Copp - ie a reliable D, speed forechecker with no hands but crashes the net... as in Barron or Kupari

If we are sticking with CSV and Lowry line - try Iafallo-Kupari-Ehlers and Barron-Names-Perfetti

I just wonder sometimes if there is any stats nerd on here who thinks they have the answer to the Jets problems with the empirical data they use. Are there fans that really believe they are smarter than the people in the organization? By virtue of statistics, and only statistics publicly available?

You start going back anywhere beyond last year statistically with line combinations and you have Wheeler as a variable as opposed to Vilardi. What's the variable impact of Wheeler (presumably it's negative beginning in 2021-22)?

A 5 game stretch is the basis for Ehlers being promoted then. Anyone want to hedge a bet with me that that combination was a variable rate of chance (bad goaltending, teams who were just passing through on back to backs), and might be more similar to the numbers that line produced after those 5 games (modestly positive, but not dissimilar to the rates of success the top line had before Vilardi's injury)?.

Then you factor in systematic changes with the same personnel. Can you expect the same results out of different systems?

It's going to be a long season. Finding respectful common ground in the internet era is difficult but let's try to enjoy the ride. With its ebbs and flows.

Respectfully I would say that Copp has better hands than either Barron or Kupari. Smarts too. Hard to imagine either of the latter 2 returning Brad Lambert and Elias Salomonsson in a trade.

 

[Gil Fisher]

[Buffdog gets destroyed by reasonable posters, so voyager pivots with a strawman.]

 

[Buffdog]

[Buffdog gets destroyed by reasonable posters, so voyager pivots with a strawman.]

Destroyed how?

By pointing out that there's more to playing hockey than spreadsheets and shot attempts?

Yeah, I sure got wrecked on that one

 

[Gil Fisher]

Destroyed how?

By pointing out that there's more to playing hockey than spreadsheets and shot attempts?

Yeah, I sure got wrecked on that one

Pat yourself on the back, son.