Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[Adam da bomb]

I think there is lots of room for a fair deal for Ehlers given his impact/performance (reg season + playoffs) and health.

Considering his impact this season.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Loose puck retrievals is another. Unforced turnovers and where on the ice they occur

I promise you that all teams track some or all of those to some extent

The statsnerds will tell you that those things aren't important because they'll show up in the spreadsheets they love, but that's not true in every case

How is it not true in any case? Tracking all of those other things provides useful information. But they all show up in shot attempts. They can either lead to a shot attempt by one team or the other team or they can suppress a shot attempt by one team or the other.

 

[Buffdog]

How is it not true in any case? Tracking all of those other things provides useful information. But they all show up in shot attempts. They can either lead to a shot attempt by one team or the other team or they can suppress a shot attempt by one team or the other.

Huh?

Example: Ehlers carries the puck into the zone, does two laps then turns it over up high by the blue line. Everyone on the Jets busts their asses to get back and they prevent the opposition from getting a shot off. The puck turns over and heads back up the ice and rhe Jets change

No shot attempt recorded but the stats don't reflect anything different from if Ehlers would have just cycled it down low instead of giving it away at blue line

BUT every Jet on the ice with Ehlers is pissed because they went from O zone time to busting their ass on a backcheck for no good reason

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Huh?

Example: Ehlers carries the puck into the zone, does two laps then turns it over up high by the blue line. Everyone on the Jets busts their asses to get back and they prevent the opposition from getting a shot off. The puck turns over and heads back up the ice and rhe Jets change

No shot attempt recorded but the stats don't reflect anything different from if Ehlers would have just cycled it down low instead of giving it away at blue line

BUT every Jet on the ice with Ehlers is pissed because they went from O zone time to busting their ass on a backcheck for no good reason

If no shot attempt was recorded then there is 1 less shot attempt recorded than there would have been if he had played it differently. And, in your example, the puck turned over and headed up the ice. Did the opposition get off a shot attempt? If not, there was 30 seconds of play with no SA by either side. That is a fact that shows up in the totals at the end of the game.

Does every Jet on the ice being pissed not affect their play which affects the total SA? What about the shot attempts they would have had if they had kept the puck in the O zone? Every single thing they do, or don't do, has some effect on the total shot attempts by both teams. If it doesn't lead to a SA by either team then it is the absence of a SA that could otherwise have been there. It is like that butterfly flapping its wings. Everything has a down stream effect.

 

[Whileee]

Huh?

Example: Ehlers carries the puck into the zone, does two laps then turns it over up high by the blue line. Everyone on the Jets busts their asses to get back and they prevent the opposition from getting a shot off. The puck turns over and heads back up the ice and rhe Jets change

No shot attempt recorded but the stats don't reflect anything different from if Ehlers would have just cycled it down low instead of giving it away at blue line

BUT every Jet on the ice with Ehlers is pissed because they went from O zone time to busting their ass on a backcheck for no good reason

Well sure, that might happen on occasion but the reality is that over the past 5 seasons the Jets have had more shot attempts, shots on goal and goals scored per 60 minutes with Ehlers on the ice than with any other forward (except Nino for shot attempts and shots). Ehlers is a clear leader in on-ice goals scored per 60. So, on average players playing with Ehlers get more shot attempts, more shots on goal and score more goals than when playing with other forwards. They also get better plus-minus stats, which can also help in contract negotiations.

 

[Buffdog]

If no shot attempt was recorded then there is 1 less shot attempt recorded than there would have been if he had played it differently. And, in your example, the puck turned over and headed up the ice. Did the opposition get off a shot attempt? If not, there was 30 seconds of play with no SA by either side. That is a fact that shows up in the totals at the end of the game.

Does every Jet on the ice being pissed not affect their play which affects the total SA? What about the shot attempts they would have had if they had kept the puck in the O zone? Every single thing they do, or don't do, has some effect on the total shot attempts by both teams. If it doesn't lead to a SA by either team then it is the absence of a SA that could otherwise have been there. It is like that butterfly flapping its wings. Everything has a down stream effect.

You're missing the point

Maybe the Jets get a shot attempt off if ehlers doesn't turn the puck over. Maybe they don't. But don't treat the sequence that I've outlined as equivalent to if the Jets cycled the puck around the perimeter, maintained possession and got a change in - all in the offensive zone

Or are you saying that the only thing that's important in the game is shot attempts? And not how they came to be? They aren't all equal. Some are presentable, some less so

 

[Whileee]

You're missing the point

Maybe the Jets get a shot attempt off if ehlers doesn't turn the puck over. Maybe they don't. But don't treat the sequence that I've outlined as equivalent to if the Jets cycled the puck around the perimeter, maintained possession and got a change in - all in the offensive zone

Or are you saying that the only thing that's important in the game is shot attempts? And not how they came to be? They aren't all equal. Some are presentable, some less so

Sure, but only 4 current forwards have fewer shot attempts against per 60 minutes than Ehlers over the past several seasons. So, on average whatever the process, the Jets give up few shots against when Ehlers is on the Jets ice. Same for goals against... the rates are low when Ehlers is on the ice.

 

[Gm0ney]

Great question... and it brings up another one

What's more important? The outcome, or how it's arrived at?

Seems like stats guys will overlook all the stupid shit Ehlers does because he makes the spreadsheets look pretty

But at the same time, they don't like a game that the Jets win if they got outchanced (or even if one line got outchanced)

Can't have your cake and eat it too

By the eye test, he seems high-risk/high-reward and coaches (and a lot of fans) just hate the high-risk part of that equation. But the "spreadsheets look pretty" because the results are good. The results are good, despite the bad stuff that sticks in our brains as Ehlers making a dumb play. He's far more reward than risk.

I think I speak on behalf of all Jets-fan stats-guys when I say that we're as happy as anyone to bank points when the Jets get outplayed and win anyway. We just like to occasionally point out that hey, pump the brakes, Line X is not playing well and it's going to come back and bite us (and maybe switching player Y and Z and firing Brad Lauer might help). Occasionally point out, or point it out all the time...it varies. And I know that sometimes seems like it's raining on the parade.

Not sure why I can't have my "Ehlers is better than you think" cake and eat the "didn't like Line X" cake as well. How many cakes are involved?

 

[DRW204]

Ehlers is a +56 over the last three full seasons at 5v5. The next best Jet is in the 20s. IMO if his play, process or whatever was as bad as being described when on the ice, the Jets would be feeling it negatively in the GF or GA department.

 

[DRW204]

Sure, but only 4 current forwards have fewer shot attempts against per 60 minutes than Ehlers over the past several seasons. So, on average whatever the process, the Jets give up few shots against when Ehlers is on the Jets ice. Same for goals against... the rates are low when Ehlers is on the ice.

Yeah his offense imo is moreso the catalyst to the good defensive numbers, rather than his actual defensive play. On a macro scale may not matter since at the end of the day it leads to less shots, chances or GA. However, I don't peg him as some good individual defensive fwd.

 

[bumblebeeman]

I really hope Ehlers reasons for a reasonable amount. I actually don't really care the amount it's not my money, he's just a good hockey player and fun to watch. Also seems like a good dude

 

[WolfHouse]

Funny how the anti-advanced stat crowd is kind of accidentally arguing for the use of advanced stats... Ehlers definitely has some moments where he coughs up the puck or cycles three times through the zone for no reason - those stand out more than when he puts the D off balances and opens space fo Scheif etc...

Scheif-Connor score sweet goals and this covers up for their defensive lapses or lack of backchecking (its coming later in the season dont worry...)

Advanced stats exists to be compared to the eye test and then reviewed if they conflict...

If players making $1 million a season minimum can't adjust to their team mates style and get 'huffy' about it - thats on the coaches...

What surprises me is that coaches ignored Ehlers chemsitry with Copp - ie a reliable D, speed forechecker with no hands but crashes the net... as in Barron or Kupari

If we are sticking with CSV and Lowry line - try Iafallo-Kupari-Ehlers and Barron-Names-Perfetti