I woulnt give Gabe more than 3 years, save the cap space. You can't keep everyone forever and he has never been healthy. Especially with so many wanting to give Ehlers, another injury prone player with some big boo boos, a long term deal.
Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread
- Thread starter tbcwpg
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As we move along there are only so many spots. Those spots come at a price.
Top 6- Scheifele, Connor, Gabe, Perfetti, Lambert (I hope), Ehlers. You pay what you have to on term that makes sense.
Lowry has another year and you have to keep him because they can play just about anyone with him and it works.
Which brings us to Apples, who was almost out of the NHL without Lowry. The Jets own him.
Nino here for two more years, love it.
4th line- Barron and Gus. If Names wants to stay its for around the same contract, that's the role because, pray to baby jesus it won't be on an offensive line . Otherwise it's Chibs, Kupari or some JAD/AJF type you hope might play some PK and grab off the scrap pile for cheap.
Top 6- Scheifele, Connor, Gabe, Perfetti, Lambert (I hope), Ehlers. You pay what you have to on term that makes sense.
Lowry has another year and you have to keep him because they can play just about anyone with him and it works.
Which brings us to Apples, who was almost out of the NHL without Lowry. The Jets own him.
Nino here for two more years, love it.
4th line- Barron and Gus. If Names wants to stay its for around the same contract, that's the role because, pray to baby jesus it won't be on an offensive line . Otherwise it's Chibs, Kupari or some JAD/AJF type you hope might play some PK and grab off the scrap pile for cheap.
We are going to need to be careful on what we spend on depth. We have Iafallo coming off at $4 million but my guess is a good chunk of that will be going to Appelton.
Pionk and Snerg will be getting raises on the second pairing. Probably in the neighborhood of 5 to 6 million for the pair.
Then we have Fly and Gabe needing extensions. I know some are hesitant on Gane bit his market value will be North of $6 given he has arb rights. Fly is over $8.
We are going to need some cheap contracts on the team so hopefully Lambert/Chibrikov are ready next season.
See my analysis above for Valardi but in or around 6 mil is probably pretty accurate.
For Snerg I think the Eric Cernak contact is a pretty good comparable so in or around 5.2 mil.
I was really board the other day at work so I made a cap sheet for the Jets out to 2034. Assuming a cap increase of 3 mil per season the team can afford to resign everyone and will still have cap space in excess of 5 million over the next 3 years. I'll try to post the entire excel sheet later but for reference here are the numbers I used. Along with the most comparable contract.
KFC 7 years @9.5 (Guentzel)
Ehlers 6 years @ 8 (Buchnevich)
Valardi 5 years @ 5.8 (Wilson & McCaan)
Lowery 3 years @ 4.0 (Neiederreiter)
Perfetti 7 years @ 7.75 (can't remember my comparable here)
Apples 2 years @ 4.0 (Neiederreiter)
Pionk 6 years @ 6.5 (Roy & Theodore)
Snerg 8 years @ 5.2 (Cernak)
Now that payroll would rise up to 90 million by 26/27 so not sure if the Jets have the internal budget for that but they absolutely do have the cap space.
For Snerg I think the Eric Cernak contact is a pretty good comparable so in or around 5.2 mil.
I was really board the other day at work so I made a cap sheet for the Jets out to 2034. Assuming a cap increase of 3 mil per season the team can afford to resign everyone and will still have cap space in excess of 5 million over the next 3 years. I'll try to post the entire excel sheet later but for reference here are the numbers I used. Along with the most comparable contract.
KFC 7 years @9.5 (Guentzel)
Ehlers 6 years @ 8 (Buchnevich)
Valardi 5 years @ 5.8 (Wilson & McCaan)
Lowery 3 years @ 4.0 (Neiederreiter)
Perfetti 7 years @ 7.75 (can't remember my comparable here)
Apples 2 years @ 4.0 (Neiederreiter)
Pionk 6 years @ 6.5 (Roy & Theodore)
Snerg 8 years @ 5.2 (Cernak)
Now that payroll would rise up to 90 million by 26/27 so not sure if the Jets have the internal budget for that but they absolutely do have the cap space.
I'm not an Appleton hater but he can take at most $1.5m raise or hope he can do better on another team than he did last time. With Lowry and Nino, they can make a career for Barron on that line and I think, now that I'm writing it out might be a wise cap play. The Jets have leverage here. The money on that line is owed to Lowry. He makes it work. Not Tanev or Copp or Appleton or anyone else. Appleton at $3.5 might be pretty generous.
Nice projections. I think you might ve a bit low on some and I doubt Appelton only takes 2 years at this point in his career. He'll be looking to maximize dollars and term as this is his one shot to cash in.
I personally wouldn't want to pay him either but I can't see him not looking to really cash in. He won't have another chance imo.
I also think you are correct that Lowry is likely getting paid on his next deal. My guess is they reward him with more then $5 million a year for 4 years.
Gil Fisher
Registered User
I think we probably could afford to extend one of AI and Rumsie. One is a right handed shot, so probably a better fit.
You could go another year or two with Apples and it wouldn't drastically mess anything up. I'm not sure I'd want to sign him any longer than Lowery those two I see as a pair. If Ehlers keeps playing like this he might be pushing 9 mil but I have a feeling he will slow down a bit.
92.5m for the 25-26 season according to Bettman.
TSN Oct. 4th, 2024.
Good for Appleton if he can cash in. Jets don't need to do it though. Maybe it's just me but after seeing him on the Kracken, after seeing Copp post Jets,after seeing multiple players rotating in and out of Lowry's line, I'm just not worried about it. Good teams lose good 3rd liners and need to replace them. Next man up and all that crap. He's pretty far down my list of priorities on the Jets. If another team wants to pay him $4m or more I'm happy for him, he's been a good soldier but an expendable one. People talk about space for younger players on the team all the time, there becomes a price point for his role where his spot becomes that space.
Personally I think Nino is more important and already signed.
Appleton is tied with Connor for the scoring lead at 5v5. He’s been playing great. It wasn’t long ago that people were lining up Lowry at 4C because he wasn’t producing offence. That ended with the current line, one of the best in the NHL.
Not sure what you are trying to say here. You are comparing Appleton to Connor?
Yeah, the people who wanted Lowry on the 4th line for scoring 36 points are now OK with him after scoring 35 points. I agree people can be dumb.
He’s just a point behind.
My main thought is that you don’t just throw away a line like Nino-Lowry-Appleton. They’re a big reason why the Jets have been successful recently. It’s easy to say that you can just put another winger in there, but chemistry is a tricky thing. It’s not always that simple.
Yep, but, at end of day there is a salary cap. Do you get rid of Pionk who is near the top of the league in points. Do you trade Ehlers. Do you bank on KC taking less than he is worth? Luckily I don't need to figure it out. But, there are always cap casualties.
Buffdog
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Yup, and at some point even the Jets *gasp* will need to start integrating young talent
Does Barron take Apples spot and Chibs takes his?
Or does Lambert bump Names down into Apples spot and Chibs gets Iafallo's place?
Having Lambert, Chibs and Salomonsson contributing on ELCs would help the cap structure too (depending on who they replace)
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There are a lot of decisions to be made and they all overlap.
Do I take Names for another year or two at the same salary? You bet. But he is doing pretty well at 2C this year. Looks like he is going to have the scoring stats to earn more than that. Will Lambert be ready to take that job next year? I would guess he will be ready for the NHL but need to play a year at W B4 he is ready for 2C. So how about 1 more year of Names for a higher AAV? Will we be able to fit that in?
That is just an example of all of the moving pieces associated with signing just one player. We have 7 pending UFAs (including Fleury and Coglan) and 4 pending RFAs.
I think we will need to start at the top. Retain the most impactful players and then work our way down. When we run out of cap space for larger contracts fill in the rest with <1 mil players.
We will have 4-5 mil in cap increase to work with and I think it will be easy to let Iafallo go unless he wants to take a pretty big cut in pay. After that, it gets harder.
Lots of time to see where things settle.
Ehlers, Pionk both have a years of service here to go off of in addition to how they do this year. The team is off to a scorching start and that will cool down as will our teams savage numbers.
Our cap situation is really, really good for keeping most of the group together. Or to make a big move if one did come along.
Also how important is depth vs superstars. Do you take a 8 million Ehlers over a 10 million kc to use the 2 million to keep Appleton. At this point team values Ehlers as a 2nd liner, but, he is one point behind Connor.
Well the team has always valued Connor more. Also, he has more chemistry with their number 1 centre.
Its early days will be interesting how things shape out and whether that’s even a relevant question. It’s easy to compare the two as I think right now both are playing very similar games vs a villardi or a stone.
Buffdog
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One of the "luckiest" things that has happened to the Jets is that our best players have been very good and have earned good salaries but not to a point where they've been paid so much that they make the team top heavy a la Leafs or Oilers. It's given Chevy leeway to build excellent depth (like you're saying)
To me keeping Connor and Ehlers is the priority and everyone else can come after that.
Pionk is putting up ridiculous numbers early on so he is raising his value. Will see what story the first 40 games of the season tells.
Appleton, Namestnikov and Iafallo are all solid contributors and would likely be kept in that order. If you gotta let two of this group go to keep Connor and Ehlers then you do it.
We can afford to keep everyone next year but with the year after needing Connor, Vilardi and Perfetti raises it may not be smart to. We have the cost controlled replacements marinating on the Moose right now for all of these guys pretty much.
voyageur
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I think Connor and Lowry are the priorities this offseason. Lowry should get rewarded for everything he brings to the table, and the identity he creates for the team. Samberg definitely should get a good contract, if the Jets want to keep him long term. Ehlers could be a tough one because I can see him getting top billing somewhere else that he can't get here. And it will be interesting to see how Yager, Lambert and Chibrikov develop in the next year.
The rest, I think the season and playoffs have some weight on their future.
If a type of player doesn’t age well it’s got to be Lowrt and everything he does to his body.
