Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[Buffdog]

Kova now ranked in the top ten Dmen in the NHL... model must be 'flawed' right?

100%, yes it's flawed... and that is proof of it

Are you willing to say you'd rank him in the top 10 of all the defencemen in the NHL? Top 10 in the league would put him on Team Canada's roster for the 4 nations. Good luck trying to convince anyone that that's a good idea

 

[Adam da bomb]

100%, yes it's flawed... and that is proof of it

Are you willing to say you'd rank him in the top 10 of all the defencemen in the NHL? Top 10 in the league would put him on Team Canada's roster for the 4 nations. Good luck trying to convince anyone that that's a good idea

Apparently we gave up the guy who would have been our second best d for free.

 

[10Ducky10]

He wouldn't be top 10 in his division.

 

[WolfHouse]

100%, yes it's flawed... and that is proof of it

Are you willing to say you'd rank him in the top 10 of all the defencemen in the NHL? Top 10 in the league would put him on Team Canada's roster for the 4 nations. Good luck trying to convince anyone that that's a good idea

I have not watched all the nhl games this year and the model also acknowledges he ks benefitting from siegenthaler who ranks 1st

It is clear you have preconceived ideas and that you judge your limited access to information as somehow more insightful than advanced stats.... but right now siegenthaler-kovacevic are the best shutdown pair in the league.

If it continues then it would be short sighted not to consider them for the roster tbh.

 

[Buffdog]

I have not watched all the nhl games this year and the model also acknowledges he ks benefitting from siegenthaler who ranks 1st

It is clear you have preconceived ideas and that you judge your limited access to information as somehow more insightful than advanced stats.... but right now siegenthaler-kovacevic are the best shutdown pair in the league.

If it continues then it would be short sighted not to consider them for the roster tbh.

"Norris Candidate Johnathan Kovacevic" lol

My preconceived notion is that he went from waiver-wire to worth a 4th round pick. And that's because it's 100% objectively true

You're worshiping at the alter of some dude's equation that he made up. Get a grip. That's not even an "advanced stat"

 

[Cypruss]

100%, yes it's flawed... and that is proof of it

Are you willing to say you'd rank him in the top 10 of all the defencemen in the NHL? Top 10 in the league would put him on Team Canada's roster for the 4 nations. Good luck trying to convince anyone that that's a good idea

If the "experts" who created this model say it is true - then how dare you question or doubt the "experts".

Give me one single example of when the "experts" were wrong.

 

[Jet]

Kova now ranked in the top ten Dmen in the NHL... model must be 'flawed' right?

yes

He wouldn't be top 10 in his division.

I wonder if he's top 10 on his team.

This is actually silly.

 

[WolfHouse]

"Norris Candidate Johnathan Kovacevic" lol

My preconceived notion is that he went from waiver-wire to worth a 4th round pick. And that's because it's 100% objectively true

You're worshiping at the alter of some dude's equation that he made up. Get a grip. That's not even an "advanced stat"

Yes I keep forgetting that you are the be all end all of knowledge about NHLers haha

I hate to break it to you - but YOU are the 'some dude' and the advanced stat models are 'advanced stat models' using holistic information.

Im not saying he will win the Norris - I am simply saying he is currently half of the best shutdown pairing in the league. Take it or leave it...

Its just hilarious to watch us desperately trying to show Stanley is developing and say hes a late bloomer... while writing off Chisholm and Kova because they didn't win a spot with us - and that's that... ridiculous double standard.

Advanced stats were developed to address the bias created from past seasons and preconceived notions. You are an excellent example of why we need models.

 

[voyageur]

There is a good chance of Heinola refusing a conditioning stint as Stanley didn't do one either. There very little to gain for him and a lot to lose. If he goes down has a good few games then that was expected, no brownie points earned but if he has a couple of bad games, that not only gives the Jets a reason to not play him it also can impact his odds of being picked up on waivers.

I would be surprised if he accepts a conditioning stint and I would imagine his agent will also advise him against it.

Stanley only missed 4 games out of TC, which was 2 weeks from the end of TC because of the 4 day break in the early schedule. . He was ready to play. You are now heading over a month out of game action. I don't see why Heinola refuses conditioning. Hes not immediately going in the lineup. If nothing else a good showing showcases him for a trade.

Kova now ranked in the top ten Dmen in the NHL... model must be 'flawed' right?

I was looking through the games played and it's imprressive that Kovacevic is playing more minutes than Dougie Hamilton regularly. Pesce still plays more than him. He's on the top PK, for a team that is a couple of notches ahead of us, in that respect. Good for the guy, he might get paid as a top 4 d-man this offseason.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Stanley only missed 4 games out of TC, which was a week and a half out of TC because of the 4 game break in the early schedule. . He was ready to play. You are now heading over a month out of game action. I don't see why Heinola refuses conditioning. Hes not immediately going in the lineup. If nothing else a good showing showcases him for a trade.

I was looking through the games played and it's imprressive that Kovacevic is playing more minutes than Dougie Hamilton regularly. Pesce still plays more than him. He's on the top PK, for a team that is a couple of notches ahead of us, in that respect. Good for the guy, he might get paid as a top 4 d-man this offseason.

I am pretty happy for the guy too. He was a good pick by us and really took a long time to cook, hopefully he parley this year into a nice contract for himself. If anything we didn't need to bring in Schmidt during that time but that is likely a Maurice thing then anything else. We don't bring in Schmidt we probably have one of Chisholm/Kova around right now. But I don't think that translate into him playing the way he is with the Devils right now. I think being thrown into the crucible of a terrible Montreal team and learning the NHL game the hard way was way more experience then he would have gotten here

I am still trying to put my finger on what the problem is with what happened there. So far Stanley seems to be maturing nicely and if he is on that same trajectory then we can expect good things this year and next from the guy. Kova and him are a year apart.

 

[Gm0ney]

Kovacevic is a 6'5" De Melo - good RH defensive complement to a solid partner playing top line minutes and getting very good results. He didn't get a proper shot in Winnipeg because Stanley was (and continues to be) the focus of the Jets 9 year project to develop a big defenseman.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Kovacevic is a 6'5" De Melo - good RH defensive complement to a solid partner playing top line minutes and getting very good results. He didn't get a proper shot in Winnipeg because Stanley was (and continues to be) the focus of the Jets 9 year project to develop a big defenseman.

So what you are saying is we should have put Kovacevic in the lineup over Demelo?

 

[Gm0ney]

So what you are saying is we should have put Kovacevic in the lineup over Demelo?

I'm saying that's what he's become. Not that he should've been top pair RHD 3 years ago or whatever.

 

[voyageur]

I am pretty happy for the guy too. He was a good pick by us and really took a long time to cook, hopefully he parley this year into a nice contract for himself. If anything we didn't need to bring in Schmidt during that time but that is likely a Maurice thing then anything else. We don't bring in Schmidt we probably have one of Chisholm/Kova around right now. But I don't think that translate into him playing the way he is with the Devils right now. I think being thrown into the crucible of a terrible Montreal team and learning the NHL game the hard way was way more experience then he would have gotten here

I am still trying to put my finger on what the problem is with what happened there. So far Stanley seems to be maturing nicely and if he is on that same trajectory then we can expect good things this year and next from the guy. Kova and him are a year apart.

The only thing I can think of is that the Jets really thought they were in a position of contention after the Covid year, in which they should have rolled over Montreal to get to Vegas. Samberg was on his way, and I think the Jets might have had something with Samberg and Kovacevic, I remember there was some fanfare around those 2, but the Jets never have promoted 2 young players simultaneously. The closest was Morrissey-Trouba, and Trouba was already established by then. Schmidt turned oout to be a pretty good mentor to Samberg, I think at one point they were the highest rated d-pairing last year. And Schmidt had a certain value to a maturing team, as the guy who keep the room loose. Something Wheeler, I imagine, did not do.

The decision to waive him to keep Capobianco will always linger, but it's done. Kovacevic didn't exactly set the league on fire in Montreal, like you said, it was a trial by fire. Maybe Ryan Mc Gill is helping him out. Devils probably have the biggest defense in the league on paper. Only Hughes under 200, so it might just be a systematic fit, that Keefe tried to establish in Toronto. Not sure if Kovacevic would have had the same results here, or would be a fit for Arniel/Chynoweth. We'll never know, but makes for a good rant the better Kovacevic plays.

 

[Buffdog]

Yes I keep forgetting that you are the be all end all of knowledge about NHLers haha

I hate to break it to you - but YOU are the 'some dude' and the advanced stat models are 'advanced stat models' using holistic information.

Im not saying he will win the Norris - I am simply saying he is currently half of the best shutdown pairing in the league. Take it or leave it...

Its just hilarious to watch us desperately trying to show Stanley is developing and say hes a late bloomer... while writing off Chisholm and Kova because they didn't win a spot with us - and that's that... ridiculous double standard.

Advanced stats were developed to address the bias created from past seasons and preconceived notions. You are an excellent example of why we need models.

You don't "develop" stats - they are what they are. A player gets a hit. Or a pitcher strikes someone out. Or a guy scores a goal or a goalie makes a save. A stat is an objective representation of an event. Like "it's 25 degrees today".

Models aren't stats. They take a stat and weigh it based on the how person who developed that model weighs it. At this point, it's ceased being objective and is at least, in part, subjective

Why did you bring up Stanley? My opinion of this bullshit model has nothing to do with him. Aren't you always accusing ME of strawmen?

So if you're building a team today, which one of these guys do you take Kovacevic over?

Kovacevic is a 6'5" De Melo - good RH defensive complement to a solid partner playing top line minutes and getting very good results. He didn't get a proper shot in Winnipeg because Stanley was (and continues to be) the focus of the Jets 9 year project to develop a big defenseman.

I don't think Stanley had anything to do with it. It was Demelo/Pionk/Schmidt who blocked Kovacevic. There was no path to him passing any one of those guys on the depth chart and the waiver wire did exactly what it's designed to do - give a guy buried on the depth chart a chance yo play in the NHL on a different team

 

[Weezeric]

I’m glad the Jets having among the best starts in NHL history can’t distract from the real issue, a player lost on waivers years ago.

 

[Gil Fisher]

100%, yes it's flawed... and that is proof of it

Are you willing to say you'd rank him in the top 10 of all the defencemen in the NHL? Top 10 in the league would put him on Team Canada's roster for the 4 nations. Good luck trying to convince anyone that that's a good idea

Who is in the top 10? If the model gets 8 or 9 right, is it flawed because of Kovacevic?

 

[Buffdog]

Who is in the top 10? If the model gets 8 or 9 right, is it flawed because of Kovacevic?

Yes, but the inclusion of an outlier should give the modeler feedback to improve it

 

[Cypruss]

The Kovacevic rating was pure defensive rating on their model - Hockey Stat Cards

Defense Rating (after 10-15 games played)

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Jonas Siegenthaler	+ 4.2
2		Vladislav Gavrikov	+ 3.8
3		Brock Faber	+ 3.4
4		Quinn Hughes	+ 3.3
5		Johnathan Kovacevic	+ 3.2
6		Filip Hronek	+ 3.1
7		Ryan Pulock	+ 3.0
8		Jonas Brodin	+ 3.0
9		Mikey Anderson	+ 2.8
10		Moritz Seider	+ 2.8

Doesn't make the top 10 overall list however:

Net Rating

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Quinn Hughes	+ 6.3
2		Victor Hedman	+ 4.9
3		John Carlson	+ 4.2
4		Shayne Gostisbehere	+ 4.2
5		Vladislav Gavrikov	+ 3.9
6		Mattias Ekholm	+ 3.9
7		Brock Faber	+ 3.7
8		Evan Bouchard	+ 3.7
9		Cale Makar	+ 3.4
10		Dmitry Orlov	+ 3.3

 

[Gil Fisher]

Yes, but the inclusion of an outlier should give the modeler feedback to improve it

Perfection is a waste of time.

The Kovacevic rating was pure defensive rating on their model - Hockey Stat Cards

Defense Rating (after 10-15 games played)

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Jonas Siegenthaler	+ 4.2
2		Vladislav Gavrikov	+ 3.8
3		Brock Faber	+ 3.4
4		Quinn Hughes	+ 3.3
5		Johnathan Kovacevic	+ 3.2
6		Filip Hronek	+ 3.1
7		Ryan Pulock	+ 3.0
8		Jonas Brodin	+ 3.0
9		Mikey Anderson	+ 2.8
10		Moritz Seider	+ 2.8

Doesn't make the top 10 overall list however:

Net Rating

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Quinn Hughes	+ 6.3
2		Victor Hedman	+ 4.9
3		John Carlson	+ 4.2
4		Shayne Gostisbehere	+ 4.2
5		Vladislav Gavrikov	+ 3.9
6		Mattias Ekholm	+ 3.9
7		Brock Faber	+ 3.7
8		Evan Bouchard	+ 3.7
9		Cale Makar	+ 3.4
10		Dmitry Orlov	+ 3.3

Still a small sample size.

Guessing the model doesn't take into account the three times Hedman fanned on passes on Sunday.

 

[Gil Fisher]

@Cypruss would you be comfortable posting a Table of Jets' ratings through 13 games?

 

[surixon]

The Kovacevic rating was pure defensive rating on their model - Hockey Stat Cards

Defense Rating (after 10-15 games played)

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Jonas Siegenthaler	+ 4.2
2		Vladislav Gavrikov	+ 3.8
3		Brock Faber	+ 3.4
4		Quinn Hughes	+ 3.3
5		Johnathan Kovacevic	+ 3.2
6		Filip Hronek	+ 3.1
7		Ryan Pulock	+ 3.0
8		Jonas Brodin	+ 3.0
9		Mikey Anderson	+ 2.8
10		Moritz Seider	+ 2.8

Doesn't make the top 10 overall list however:

Net Rating

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Quinn Hughes	+ 6.3
2		Victor Hedman	+ 4.9
3		John Carlson	+ 4.2
4		Shayne Gostisbehere	+ 4.2
5		Vladislav Gavrikov	+ 3.9
6		Mattias Ekholm	+ 3.9
7		Brock Faber	+ 3.7
8		Evan Bouchard	+ 3.7
9		Cale Makar	+ 3.4
10		Dmitry Orlov	+ 3.3

Hard to take a model seriously when JoMo who has double the points of Ghost but has a lower offensive rating.

 

[Gm0ney]

I don't think Stanley had anything to do with it. It was Demelo/Pionk/Schmidt who blocked Kovacevic. There was no path to him passing any one of those guys on the depth chart and the waiver wire did exactly what it's designed to do - give a guy buried on the depth chart a chance yo play in the NHL on a different team

Yet they were willing to move Samberg to his off side - in the playoffs! - to accommodate the Stanley Project? Also sitting Schmidt in the pressbox for a stretch of games wouldn't have been any big loss during the time when Kovacevic was here.

 

[surixon]

Yet they were willing to move Samberg to his off side - in the playoffs! - to accommodate the Stanley Project? Also sitting Schmidt in the pressbox for a stretch of games wouldn't have been any big loss during the time when Kovacevic was here.

Agreed, they have been hell bent on making it work with Stanley. They could have easily kept Kovacevik over that other waiver dmen they kept.

Even if I don't think the player is as good as these models they clearly missread the player in this case as he now could easily be doing the Miller role better and for much cheaper.

 

[Cypruss]

@Cypruss would you be comfortable posting a Table of Jets' ratings through 13 games?

Forwards​

Offense Rating

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Kyle Connor	+ 2.4
2		Nino Niederreiter	+ 2.2
3		Nikolaj Ehlers	+ 1.8
4		Mark Scheifele	+ 1.7
5		Mason Appleton	+ 1.1
6		Adam Lowry	+ 0.7
7		Cole Perfetti	+ 0.6
8		Gabriel Vilardi	+ 0.3
9		Vladislav Namestnikov	+ 0.1
10		Alex Iafallo	-1.6

Defense Rating

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Mason Appleton	+ 1.2
2		Nino Niederreiter	+ 0.9
3		Adam Lowry	+ 0.9
4		Alex Iafallo	+ 0.8
5		Morgan Barron	+ 0.7
6		Rasmus Kupari	+ 0.5
7		Mark Scheifele	+ 0.2
8		Kyle Connor	-0.1
9		Gabriel Vilardi	-0.1
10		Cole Perfetti	-0.1

Net Rating

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Nino Niederreiter	+ 3.1
2		Kyle Connor	+ 2.3
3		Mason Appleton	+ 2.3
4		Mark Scheifele	+ 1.8
5		Nikolaj Ehlers	+ 1.5
6		Adam Lowry	+ 1.5
7		Cole Perfetti	+ 0.5
8		Gabriel Vilardi	+ 0.2
9		Vladislav Namestnikov	-0.2
10		Alex Iafallo	-0.8

Defense​

Offense Rating

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Neal Pionk	+ 2.7
2		Dylan Samberg	+ 0.7
3		Josh Morrissey	+ 0.5
4		Colin Miller	0.0
5		Logan Stanley	-0.7
6		Dylan DeMelo	-2.2

Defense Rating

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Josh Morrissey	+ 2.1
2		Colin Miller	+ 1.4
3		Logan Stanley	+ 1.1
4		Dylan DeMelo	+ 0.9
5		Dylan Samberg	-1.0
6		Neal Pionk	-1.1

Net Rating

#	Team	Player	Rating
1		Josh Morrissey	+ 2.6
2		Neal Pionk	+ 1.6
3		Colin Miller	+ 1.3
4		Logan Stanley	+ 0.5
5		Dylan Samberg	-0.3
6		Dylan DeMelo	-1.3