Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[KingBogo]

It's based on how significant the difference is in goals for and against when 81-55 and 27-55 team up.

That's the agenda. To do better as a team. And there is some real solid info telling us this is a way we can get better.

But what is best for the team as a whole? I isolated Ehlers and Scheifele together over the last 3 complete seasons and they are 54GF - 30GA for a 64.29 GF% and a xGF% of 52.32%. Pretty impressive. However if you isolate Ehlers with Names they are 24GF - 12GA for a 66.67 GF% with a 55.21 xGF%. slightly more impressive. What is the common denominator Nik Ehlers.

Ehlers individual totals over the last 3 years 144GF - 88GA for a 62.07 GF% and a 54.05 xGF%. Pretty much not impacted by the center he plays with as long as it isn't Lowry as they go together like water and vinegar.

As I've argued Ehlers should be expected to drive is own line as he is the least impacted by not playing with the team's #1 center.

 

[DRW204]

I’ve been arguing all along that a team as a whole is the strongest when you balance out the talent throughout the team. You want to stack the 1st line I get it. But what is the evidence that makes us a stronger team as a whole? What are the other line combinations and why would they be better together and make us stronger throughout the team?

The way they have it now may be closer to stacking the first line than what you're suggesting.

Brock Nelson, c’mon down!!!!!

And then re-sign him, then the prospect crew will be in shambles.

 

[DRW204]

But what is best for the team as a whole? I isolated Ehlers and Scheifele together over the last 3 complete seasons and they are 54GF - 30GA for a 64.29 GF% and a xGF% of 52.32%. Pretty impressive. However if you isolate Ehlers with Names they are 24GF - 12GA for a 66.67 GF% with a 55.21 xGF%. slightly more impressive. What is the common denominator Nik Ehlers.

Ehlers individual totals over the last 3 years 144GF - 88GA for a 62.07 GF% and a 54.05 xGF%. Pretty much not impacted by the center he plays with as long as it isn't Lowry as they go together like water and vinegar.

As I've argued Ehlers should be expected to drive is own line as he is the least impacted by not playing with the team's #1 center.

You didn't talk about the team at all. What's the goal differential of the other top 6 line in each scenario.

Add those up and you'd have a net for the top 6 which is closer to talking about the team.

 

[Jet]

Just looking at the games the Jets played without KFC in 2023-24. They had 12 W vs 4 L. Very impressive.

Who did they play against:

• Anaheim
• Arizona
• Boston
• Chicago x2
• Colorado
• Columbus
• Detroit
• Los Angeles
• Minnesota x2
• Montreal
• Philadelphia
• San Jose x2
• Tampa Bay

In 12 of the 16 games, they played against teams that missed the playoffs.

Of the 16 games, 7 were away games.

Josh Morrissey only registered 8 points in those 16 games, which I find interesting, but it is a small sample size.

Outside of Scheifele missing that lone game - still without KFC - vs Philadelphia, which other key member was missing during that time frame?

Looking at the teams that didn't make the playoffs:

• Anaheim (GF 30 of 32, GA 30 of 32)
• Arizona (GF 16 of 32, GA 24 of 32)
• Chicago (GF 32 of 32, GA 29 of 32)
• Columbus (GF 25 of 32, GA 31 of 32)
• Detroit (GF 9 of 32, GA 24 of 32)
• Minnesota (GF 21 of 32, GA 19 of 32)
• Montreal (GF 26 of 32, 28 of 32)
• Philadelphia (GF 27 of 32, GA 18 of 32)
• San Jose (GF 31 of 32, GA 32 of 32)

Interesting for context, thanks for the breakdown

 

[Flair Hay]

But what is best for the team as a whole? I isolated Ehlers and Scheifele together over the last 3 complete seasons and they are 54GF - 30GA for a 64.29 GF% and a xGF% of 52.32%. Pretty impressive. However if you isolate Ehlers with Names they are 24GF - 12GA for a 66.67 GF% with a 55.21 xGF%. slightly more impressive. What is the common denominator Nik Ehlers.

Ehlers individual totals over the last 3 years 144GF - 88GA for a 62.07 GF% and a 54.05 xGF%. Pretty much not impacted by the center he plays with as long as it isn't Lowry as they go together like water and vinegar.

As I've argued Ehlers should be expected to drive is own line as he is the least impacted by not playing with the team's #1 center.

To me having a great top line is a greater priority because they play more.

You bring up a great point about Ehlers though. Worthy of discussing when folks feel like letting him go and backfilling him with Lambert makes sense.

It's hard for me to get accused on not appreciating Kyle Connor for all the offense he brings, while arguing to promote Ehlers... while also being told replacing Ehlers with him on the 3rd line would cause the 3rd line to suffer greatly?

I guess the two ideas can co-exist. I don't see the fear of the unknown (81 on the 3rd line) as a reason not to make a proven improvement (based off results anyway).

 

[Jet]

I know I'm guilty as the rest, but it's there any way we can get this thread back on topic? We can argue about 55+81 in a bunch of other threads. @Romang67 @tbcwpg ?

 

[DRW204]

So for those who bring up being against the whole stacking top line argument...

In the Jets top 6, based on their Jets stats (ie: excluding Names or Vilardi pre jets)

The two most prolific offensive players are who?
The two weakest offensive players are who?

 

[Buffdog]

So for thos who bring up bring against the whole stacking top line argument...

In the Jets top 6, based on their Jets stats (ie: excluding Names or Vilardi pre jets)

The two most prolific offensive players are who?
The two weakest offensive players are who?

I don't think that anyone is against stacking the top line. I know I'm not

I've just offered different reasons why the team has chosen not to do so

Personally, I have zero f***s to give about who plays with who. But it's like some people take it personally that the coaching staff doesn't see things the way they do, and become borderline indignant over it

 

[Flair Hay]

I’ve been arguing all along that a team as a whole is the strongest when you balance out the talent throughout the team. You want to stack the 1st line I get it. But what is the evidence that makes us a stronger team as a whole? What are the other line combinations and why would they be better together and make us stronger throughout the team?

I'm not the one to be answering this that's for sure. I'll try to be objective and go with the numbers from last year

Current 5v5
1) 81 and 55 - 50% of the goals in 16 mins/game
2) 27 on 3rd - 65% (wtf!) in 13 mins per game

=56.7% goals for/against

Proposed 5v5
1) 27 and 55 - 65% of the goals in 16 mins/game (vs 65% last year)
2) 81 on 3rd - 55% of goals (down from 65% with Ehlers) In 13 mins *this one is subjective because we haven't seen it*

=60.5% goals for/against

My "gut feel" is with some drop in efficiency from Ehlers-Scheifele and Connor still doing well, but not at Ehlers level on line 3, we are in the 58-59% range for our two offensive lines combined compared to 56-57% last year.

It's not the difference between President's trophy or playoffs. But when the club motto is to get 5% better every year... well there is more than half of that improvement from switching lines. And that's taking into account a drop off from what's been happening.

Again, I'm not the one who should be doing this. But when I say the math is staring us in the face... well that's how it is working in my brain. Maybe that helps? I'm sure I made a mistake or two in there.

This was a good exercise for me lol

 

[DRW204]

I'm not the one to be answering this that's for sure. I'll try to be objective and go with the numbers from last year

Current 5v5
1) 81 and 55 - 50% of the goals in 16 mins/game
2) 27 on 3rd - 65% (wtf!) in 13 mins per game

=56.7% goals for/against

Proposed 5v5
1) 27 and 55 - 65% of the goals in 16 mins/game (vs 65% last year)
2) 81 on 3rd - 55% of goals (down from 65% with Ehlers) In 13 mins *this one is subjective because we haven't seen it*

=60.5% goals for/against

My "gut feel" is with some drop in efficiency from Ehlers-Scheifele and Connor still doing well, but not at Ehlers level on line 3, we are in the 58-59% range for our two offensive lines combined compared to 56-57% last year.

It's not the difference between President's trophy or playoffs. But when the club motto is to get 5% better every year... well there is more than half of that improvement from switching lines. And that's taking into account a drop off from what's been happening.

Again, I'm not the one who should be doing this. But when I say the math is staring us in the face... well that's how it is working in my brain. Maybe that helps? I'm sure I made a mistake or two in there.

This was a good exercise for me lol

Are you using naturalstattrick?

 

[Flair Hay]

Are you using naturalstattrick?

I went to money puck. Absolutely willing to be corrected if I'm wrong. If there is something I am misunderstanding I'd like to know. Wanted to explain why my thought process and hard line stance is what it is. Willing to get some egg on my face to find out if I'm a big dummy

 

[DRW204]

I went to money puck. Absolutely willing to be corrected if I'm wrong. If there is something I am misunderstanding I'd like to know. Wanted to explain why my thought process and hard line stance is what it is. Willing to get some egg on my face to find out if I'm a big dummy

Ah ok. I haven't used money pucks tool. I know from naturalstattricks line tool you have to exclude ehlers from the Connor-scheifele-(blank) selection bc the tool will pick up any third fwd, including ehlers, which defeats the purpose.

Which would lead to your "current 5v5" wouldn't make sense (ehlers can't play top line and third line at the same time). But don't mind me if it's not the case

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We did have a goal differential of +61 last season and it earned us 4th overall in points.

It was 60. 10 more would have been better. A difference of only 10 would probably have got us a Presidents Trophy. A goal differential of +10 is not insignificant.

Maybe, maybe not. 1st overall was +53, and Florida (who finished 5th behind us) was +68

Nashville (+21) finished a spot ahead of LA (+41)

Lots of examples of that

70 would have been better than 60. No maybe. It just is.

 

[DRW204]

Maybe you have the poster on ignore but post #523.

I don't think that anyone is against stacking the top line. I know I'm not

I've just offered different reasons why the team has chosen not to do so

Personally, I have zero f***s to give about who plays with who. But it's like some people take it personally that the coaching staff doesn't see things the way they do, and become borderline indignant over

 

[Weezeric]

It's not just "posters on this board with an agenda", there are guys who cover hockey at a national level with no dog in this fight like Dimitri Filipovic, JFresh, Dom Luschynshyn etc who have been saying the exact same thing, not to mention people like Murat who cover the Jets.

Ah yes. Dom. He couldn’t possibly be wrong about things. It’s not like he had Morrissey as one of the worst contracts in the league two years ago or anything….

 

[Buffdog]

It was 60. 10 more would have been better. A difference of only 10 would probably have got us a Presidents Trophy. A goal differential of +10 is not insignificant.



70 would have been better than 60. No maybe. It just is.

Is 70 better than 60 if by doing so it pisses of your most prolific offensive players, who can become whiney and petulant and a negative influence in the locker room?

You're being myopic

Maybe you have the poster on ignore but post #523.

I don't have anyone on ignore lol

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I know I'm guilty as the rest, but it's there any way we can get this thread back on topic? We can argue about 55+81 in a bunch of other threads. @Romang67 @tbcwpg ?

What I am hearing is we should trade Connor and Sign Ehlers long term and force Scheif to play with him no matter what

So we kind of are on topic now

 

[Moloch]

Anyways
What would be the ideal move to make concerning Iafallo? trade him at the deadline for a pick and let chibrikov move up if he hasn't already?
(Just trying to move this thread in a different direction...)

 

[Buffdog]

Anyways
What would be the ideal move to make concerning Iafallo? trade him at the deadline for a pick and let chibrikov move up if he hasn't already?
(Just trying to move this thread in a different direction...)

I think Iafallo is an own-rental. What he brings on the ice outweighs his potential return. Maybe they try to get him back at a discount for a couple of years. I like what he brings on the 4th line

That's assuming we haven't fallen out of the playoff picture

 

[gojetsgo]

Anyways
What would be the ideal move to make concerning Iafallo? trade him at the deadline for a pick and let chibrikov move up if he hasn't already?
(Just trying to move this thread in a different direction...)

don't see the point in moving him unless we are out of the playoff race which I don't assume we will be

 

[Flair Hay]

I think Iafallo is an own-rental. What he brings on the ice outweighs his potential return. Maybe they try to get him back at a discount for a couple of years. I like what he brings on the 4th line

That's assuming we haven't fallen out of the playoff picture

Agreed 100%

 

[KingBogo]

What I am hearing is we should trade Connor and Sign Ehlers long term and force Scheif to play with him no matter what

So we kind of are on topic now

And the most likely scenario will be Ehlers gets traded sometime between now and the TDL and Connor re-signs long term next summer and him and Scheifele play together for another 7 years.

I think I will bookmark this post for posterity

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It's a fine line. You get into too many long term over 30 contracts, and you might inevitably get slower, more injured, and you eat up a lot of Cap with your veteran core. I don't think it's inconceivable to move on from Ehlers and improve. These guys coming are going to fight for playing time sooner or later. Where does it come from?

Do you think there is potential in any of Lambert, Yager, or Chibrikov to be perennial 20+ goal scorers? It's the timeline that development and free agency intersect at. What's the timeline for them to hit their peak?

I think that is not the point. Can we move on from Ehlers and improve? Yes, of course, if we get some good value for him rather than letting him walk, or if we find a replacement in the system who is straight up better than he is.

 

[KingBogo]

I think that is not the point. Can we move on from Ehlers and improve? Yes, of course, if we get some good value for him rather than letting him walk, or if we find a replacement in the system who is straight up better than he is.

Not a fan of letting Ehlers walk, especially since he has never been a top playoff player. Ideally Chevy makes a hockey trade for a player with term that can help us now if he can’t be re-signed.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Problem is we don’t have a real #2 Center so basically you are forcing a 40+ goal scorer to play with a bottom 6 center. Does the increase of the first line offset this? And like I said previously this sets up for hard matchups in a tough central when teams don’t have to worry about a second line coming at them.

Would you be willing to trade Ehlers for fair value? Or is he too important as the 2nd line driver?