Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[KingBogo]

It's based on how significant the difference is in goals for and against when 81-55 and 27-55 team up.

That's the agenda. To do better as a team. And there is some real solid info telling us this is a way we can get better.

But what is best for the team as a whole? I isolated Ehlers and Scheifele together over the last 3 complete seasons and they are 54GF - 30GA for a 64.29 GF% and a xGF% of 52.32%. Pretty impressive. However if you isolate Ehlers with Names they are 24GF - 12GA for a 66.67 GF% with a 55.21 xGF%. slightly more impressive. What is the common denominator Nik Ehlers.

Ehlers individual totals over the last 3 years 144GF - 88GA for a 62.07 GF% and a 54.05 xGF%. Pretty much not impacted by the center he plays with as long as it isn't Lowry as they go together like water and vinegar.

As I've argued Ehlers should be expected to drive is own line as he is the least impacted by not playing with the team's #1 center.

 

[DRW204]

I’ve been arguing all along that a team as a whole is the strongest when you balance out the talent throughout the team. You want to stack the 1st line I get it. But what is the evidence that makes us a stronger team as a whole? What are the other line combinations and why would they be better together and make us stronger throughout the team?

The way they have it now may be closer to stacking the first line than what you're suggesting.

Brock Nelson, c’mon down!!!!!

And then re-sign him, then the prospect crew will be in shambles.

 

[DRW204]

But what is best for the team as a whole? I isolated Ehlers and Scheifele together over the last 3 complete seasons and they are 54GF - 30GA for a 64.29 GF% and a xGF% of 52.32%. Pretty impressive. However if you isolate Ehlers with Names they are 24GF - 12GA for a 66.67 GF% with a 55.21 xGF%. slightly more impressive. What is the common denominator Nik Ehlers.

Ehlers individual totals over the last 3 years 144GF - 88GA for a 62.07 GF% and a 54.05 xGF%. Pretty much not impacted by the center he plays with as long as it isn't Lowry as they go together like water and vinegar.

As I've argued Ehlers should be expected to drive is own line as he is the least impacted by not playing with the team's #1 center.

You didn't talk about the team at all. What's the goal differential of the other top 6 line in each scenario.

Add those up and you'd have a net for the top 6 which is closer to talking about the team.

 

[Jet]

Just looking at the games the Jets played without KFC in 2023-24. They had 12 W vs 4 L. Very impressive.

Who did they play against:

• Anaheim
• Arizona
• Boston
• Chicago x2
• Colorado
• Columbus
• Detroit
• Los Angeles
• Minnesota x2
• Montreal
• Philadelphia
• San Jose x2
• Tampa Bay

In 12 of the 16 games, they played against teams that missed the playoffs.

Of the 16 games, 7 were away games.

Josh Morrissey only registered 8 points in those 16 games, which I find interesting, but it is a small sample size.

Outside of Scheifele missing that lone game - still without KFC - vs Philadelphia, which other key member was missing during that time frame?

Looking at the teams that didn't make the playoffs:

• Anaheim (GF 30 of 32, GA 30 of 32)
• Arizona (GF 16 of 32, GA 24 of 32)
• Chicago (GF 32 of 32, GA 29 of 32)
• Columbus (GF 25 of 32, GA 31 of 32)
• Detroit (GF 9 of 32, GA 24 of 32)
• Minnesota (GF 21 of 32, GA 19 of 32)
• Montreal (GF 26 of 32, 28 of 32)
• Philadelphia (GF 27 of 32, GA 18 of 32)
• San Jose (GF 31 of 32, GA 32 of 32)

Interesting for context, thanks for the breakdown

 

[Flair Hay]

But what is best for the team as a whole? I isolated Ehlers and Scheifele together over the last 3 complete seasons and they are 54GF - 30GA for a 64.29 GF% and a xGF% of 52.32%. Pretty impressive. However if you isolate Ehlers with Names they are 24GF - 12GA for a 66.67 GF% with a 55.21 xGF%. slightly more impressive. What is the common denominator Nik Ehlers.

Ehlers individual totals over the last 3 years 144GF - 88GA for a 62.07 GF% and a 54.05 xGF%. Pretty much not impacted by the center he plays with as long as it isn't Lowry as they go together like water and vinegar.

As I've argued Ehlers should be expected to drive is own line as he is the least impacted by not playing with the team's #1 center.

To me having a great top line is a greater priority because they play more.

You bring up a great point about Ehlers though. Worthy of discussing when folks feel like letting him go and backfilling him with Lambert makes sense.

It's hard for me to get accused on not appreciating Kyle Connor for all the offense he brings, while arguing to promote Ehlers... while also being told replacing Ehlers with him on the 3rd line would cause the 3rd line to suffer greatly?

I guess the two ideas can co-exist. I don't see the fear of the unknown (81 on the 3rd line) as a reason not to make a proven improvement (based off results anyway).

 

[Jet]

I know I'm guilty as the rest, but it's there any way we can get this thread back on topic? We can argue about 55+81 in a bunch of other threads. @Romang67 @tbcwpg ?

 

[DRW204]

So for those who bring up being against the whole stacking top line argument...

In the Jets top 6, based on their Jets stats (ie: excluding Names or Vilardi pre jets)

The two most prolific offensive players are who?
The two weakest offensive players are who?

 

[Buffdog]

So for thos who bring up bring against the whole stacking top line argument...

In the Jets top 6, based on their Jets stats (ie: excluding Names or Vilardi pre jets)

The two most prolific offensive players are who?
The two weakest offensive players are who?

I don't think that anyone is against stacking the top line. I know I'm not

I've just offered different reasons why the team has chosen not to do so

Personally, I have zero f***s to give about who plays with who. But it's like some people take it personally that the coaching staff doesn't see things the way they do, and become borderline indignant over it

 

[Flair Hay]

I’ve been arguing all along that a team as a whole is the strongest when you balance out the talent throughout the team. You want to stack the 1st line I get it. But what is the evidence that makes us a stronger team as a whole? What are the other line combinations and why would they be better together and make us stronger throughout the team?

I'm not the one to be answering this that's for sure. I'll try to be objective and go with the numbers from last year

Current 5v5
1) 81 and 55 - 50% of the goals in 16 mins/game
2) 27 on 3rd - 65% (wtf!) in 13 mins per game

=56.7% goals for/against

Proposed 5v5
1) 27 and 55 - 65% of the goals in 16 mins/game (vs 65% last year)
2) 81 on 3rd - 55% of goals (down from 65% with Ehlers) In 13 mins *this one is subjective because we haven't seen it*

=60.5% goals for/against

My "gut feel" is with some drop in efficiency from Ehlers-Scheifele and Connor still doing well, but not at Ehlers level on line 3, we are in the 58-59% range for our two offensive lines combined compared to 56-57% last year.

It's not the difference between President's trophy or playoffs. But when the club motto is to get 5% better every year... well there is more than half of that improvement from switching lines. And that's taking into account a drop off from what's been happening.

Again, I'm not the one who should be doing this. But when I say the math is staring us in the face... well that's how it is working in my brain. Maybe that helps? I'm sure I made a mistake or two in there.

This was a good exercise for me lol

 

[DRW204]

I'm not the one to be answering this that's for sure. I'll try to be objective and go with the numbers from last year

Current 5v5
1) 81 and 55 - 50% of the goals in 16 mins/game
2) 27 on 3rd - 65% (wtf!) in 13 mins per game

=56.7% goals for/against

Proposed 5v5
1) 27 and 55 - 65% of the goals in 16 mins/game (vs 65% last year)
2) 81 on 3rd - 55% of goals (down from 65% with Ehlers) In 13 mins *this one is subjective because we haven't seen it*

=60.5% goals for/against

My "gut feel" is with some drop in efficiency from Ehlers-Scheifele and Connor still doing well, but not at Ehlers level on line 3, we are in the 58-59% range for our two offensive lines combined compared to 56-57% last year.

It's not the difference between President's trophy or playoffs. But when the club motto is to get 5% better every year... well there is more than half of that improvement from switching lines. And that's taking into account a drop off from what's been happening.

Again, I'm not the one who should be doing this. But when I say the math is staring us in the face... well that's how it is working in my brain. Maybe that helps? I'm sure I made a mistake or two in there.

This was a good exercise for me lol

Are you using naturalstattrick?

 

[Flair Hay]

Are you using naturalstattrick?

I went to money puck. Absolutely willing to be corrected if I'm wrong. If there is something I am misunderstanding I'd like to know. Wanted to explain why my thought process and hard line stance is what it is. Willing to get some egg on my face to find out if I'm a big dummy

 

[DRW204]

I went to money puck. Absolutely willing to be corrected if I'm wrong. If there is something I am misunderstanding I'd like to know. Wanted to explain why my thought process and hard line stance is what it is. Willing to get some egg on my face to find out if I'm a big dummy

Ah ok. I haven't used money pucks tool. I know from naturalstattricks line tool you have to exclude ehlers from the Connor-scheifele-(blank) selection bc the tool will pick up any third fwd, including ehlers, which defeats the purpose.

Which would lead to your "current 5v5" wouldn't make sense (ehlers can't play top line and third line at the same time). But don't mind me if it's not the case