Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[Gm0ney]

That'll happen when you have the best goalie on the planet

People talk about it like it's a bad thing because it's not how they think we should win

"Top line HAS to win it's matchups", they'll say

Yeah everything is great until your goalie shits the bed in the playoffs...but what are the chances of that happening?

Anyway, solid goaltending is a piece of the puzzle, but it's not the only thing. And it can obscure some more fundamental flaws if management's goal is, say, just make the playoffs and hope for the best.

You're not a true contender until you have enough to overcome your weaknesses elsewhere - and few teams win the Cup with obvious weaknesses (like a 1st line that can't outscore its opposition).

 

[Buffdog]

Yeah everything is great until your goalie shits the bed in the playoffs...but what are the chances of that happening?

Anyway, solid goaltending is a piece of the puzzle, but it's not the only thing. And it can obscure some more fundamental flaws if management's goal is, say, just make the playoffs and hope for the best.

You're not a true contender until you have enough to overcome your weaknesses elsewhere - and few teams win the Cup with obvious weaknesses (like a 1st line that can't outscore its opposition).

I don't think this team is constructed to win a cup regardless of who's on the first line (unfortunately) unless they catch lightening in a bottle - which is always possible

That said, no team in the NHL has a chance of winning the cup if their best player shits the bed. Not only that, but our playoff failures last spring extended way beyond Helle

 

[Gm0ney]

Ok, so why then?

For coaches, perhaps the eye test outweighs reality? Even though the Jets perform better with Ehlers on the ice than just about anyone else, the egregious nature of his giveaways just provokes an instinctual "No!"

For the other players, maybe it's a personality thing, maybe it's a playing style thing, maybe it's egos, maybe it's just comfort level (e.g. Scheifele wants Connor on his wing because he just feels more comfortable - and since he considers stats to be "hogwash" then there's no convincing him otherwise).

 

[KingBogo]

I know it’s without precedent but I think Chevy unloads Ehlers regardless of playoff position. Especially if, as Buffdog mentioned, another young player steps up. Ehlers has exceptional game changing abilities, but they always seem to disappear in the playoffs. I have a feeling Ehlers gets moved sooner than later.

What happens with Ehlers is the big question. In and around the draft and the start of free agency would have been the best time to make a hockey trade. Maybe the market was soft or maybe Chevy is holding to a high price? Now there is a lot of unknowns. I still think he ultimately re-signs with the Jets. If he is eventually traded does Chevy settle for the standard TDL deal of a late 1st and B prospect?

 

[10Ducky10]

Ehlers for an unproven Kulich (4 games, no points)?
Peterka for Ehlers and Stanley.

 

[Buffdog]

For coaches, perhaps the eye test outweighs reality? Even though the Jets perform better with Ehlers on the ice than just about anyone else, the egregious nature of his giveaways just provokes an instinctual "No!"

For the other players, maybe it's a personality thing, maybe it's a playing style thing, maybe it's egos, maybe it's just comfort level (e.g. Scheifele wants Connor on his wing because he just feels more comfortable - and since he considers stats to be "hogwash" then there's no convincing him otherwise).

An interesting stat that I found in all this is that Ehlers has more turnovers than takeaways - unique among Jets top 6 guys

My first reaction is that it's because he has the puck more often, but I'm not sure that's the whole explanation (based on eye test and the fact that Arniel in his summer presser stressed that the coaching staff has issues with how Ehlers plays without the puck)

I just think that there are layers and nuances to Ehlers game that don't jump off the screen or stats sheet that the coaching staff has identified but that we're unclear on

 

[Gm0ney]

View attachment 917485

On-ice goals/60 is a goal metric, not a shot metric.

Over the past 3 years at 5v5:
Ehlers + Scheifele, 918 minutes, 54 GF, 30 GA (+24)
Ehlers - Scheifele, 1616 minutes, 90 GF, 58 GA (+32)
Scheifele - Ehlers, 2620 minutes, 116 GF, 128 GA (-12)
Neither on ice, 6747 minutes, 232 GF, 214 GA (+18)

Seems like a no brainer to put them together. Like all the arguments against it are just speculating about some unknown intangible reasons.

 

[Buffdog]

On-ice goals/60 is a goal metric, not a shot metric.

Over the past 3 years at 5v5:
Ehlers + Scheifele, 918 minutes, 54 GF, 30 GA (+24)
Ehlers - Scheifele, 1616 minutes, 90 GF, 58 GA (+32)
Scheifele - Ehlers, 2620 minutes, 116 GF, 128 GA (-12)
Neither on ice, 6747 minutes, 232 GF, 214 GA (+18)

Seems like a no brainer to put them together. Like all the arguments against it are just speculating about some unknown intangible reasons.

I'm referring to xGF

Obviously there's a reason they aren't playing together despite every stat all y'all bring up. It would make sense to speculate what that might be

It's like looking at a super hot chick who is with a guy who she's obviously out of his league and wondering how he ever ended up with her - only to find out later that he's hung like a horse

 

[Gm0ney]

An interesting stat that I found in all this is that Ehlers has more turnovers than takeaways - unique among Jets top 6 guys

My first reaction is that it's because he has the puck more often, but I'm not sure that's the whole explanation (based on eye test and the fact that Arniel in his summer presser stressed that the coaching staff has issues with how Ehlers plays without the puck)

I just think that there are layers and nuances to Ehlers game that don't jump off the screen or stats sheet that the coaching staff has identified but that we're unclear on

But still, if those giveaways aren't ending up in the back of the net (and we can see from the goal stats that they aren't - or at least, whatever Connor and Scheifele are doing when not giving the puck away seems to be more consequential in terms of goals-against)...who cares? This is a bit like complaining that Hellebuyck is a poor puck handler...if he's still winning Vezinas, then so what?

Ehlers is 48th in NHL forwards in Giveaways/60 (2.14) over the last 3 seasons. The Top 8 forwards are all over 3 giveaways/60. The Top 40 is a who's who of NHL stars. Pastrnak, Jack Hughes, Draisaitl, Kucherov, Marchand, Panarin, Matthew Tkachuk, Andrei Svechnikov, Marner, Forsberg, McDavid, Kaprizov, Aho, Eichel, Stutzle, MacKinnon, Crosby, Brady Tkachuk, Jason Robertson, Pavelski, Suzuki. Like if you look through the list, the number of guys who wouldn't be on the Jets top line is a mere handful.

If we look at all skaters, Ehlers falls to 84th in the league. Logan Stanley is 8th in the NHL with 3.21 Giveaways/60...so if the Jets have a problem with giveaways, then maybe start with that guy.

 

[Buffdog]

But still, if those giveaways aren't ending up in the back of the net (and we can see from the goal stats that they aren't - or at least, whatever Connor and Scheifele are doing when not giving the puck away seems to be more consequential in terms of goals-against)...who cares? This is a bit like complaining that Hellebuyck is a poor puck handler...if he's still winning Vezinas, then so what?

Ehlers is 48th in NHL forwards in Giveaways/60 (2.14) over the last 3 seasons. The Top 8 forwards are all over 3 giveaways/60. The Top 40 is a who's who of NHL stars. Pastrnak, Jack Hughes, Draisaitl, Kucherov, Marchand, Panarin, Matthew Tkachuk, Andrei Svechnikov, Marner, Forsberg, McDavid, Kaprizov, Aho, Eichel, Stutzle, MacKinnon, Crosby, Brady Tkachuk, Jason Robertson, Pavelski, Suzuki. Like if you look through the list, the number of guys who wouldn't be on the Jets top line is a mere handful.

If we look at all skaters, Ehlers falls to 84th in the league. Logan Stanley is 8th in the NHL with 3.21 Giveaways/60...so if the Jets have a problem with giveaways, then maybe start with that guy.

D men populate the list of turnovers. Demelo led all Jets last season. Pionk, Jomo and Samberg rounded out the top 5 with Ehlers

Schief and Connnor were much lower than Ehlers, which was my point. They play a possession game that involves getting the puck deep and cycling in the O zone.

Ehlers is strong off the rush

That clash of styles probably explains why they don't play together.

You may say "well, who cares since It doesn't show up in the stats"

To which I would reply "who cares that schiefs line gets outchanced since it doesn't end up in the only stat that matters - wins and losses"

 

[Flair Hay]

D men populate the list of turnovers. Demelo led all Jets last season. Pionk, Jomo and Samberg rounded out the top 5 with Ehlers

Schief and Connnor were much lower than Ehlers, which was my point. They play a possession game that involves getting the puck deep and cycling in the O zone.

Ehlers is strong off the rush

That clash of styles probably explains why they don't play together.

You may say "well, who cares since It doesn't show up in the stats"

To which I would reply "who cares that schiefs line gets outchanced since it doesn't end up in the only stat that matters - wins and losses"

If it is ending up in less goals for or more goals against, which this does...

It does end up in wins and losses. That's the reason a lot of people care.

 

[Buffdog]

If it is ending up in less goals for or more goals against, which this does...

It does end up in wins and losses. That's the reason a lot of people care.

So you're talking goal differential. We ended up 4th in the league at +60 last year (FLA was +68)

Sitting 2nd this season

What's the problem again?

 

[WolfHouse]

What a massive amount of arguing three games into the season and here im too busy to really stoke the flames. Tough times.

 

[Thechozen1]

Ok, well, how about this?

Helle has been our goalie for many years now and even with him playing at his high level we couldn't manage to keep the puck out of our own net. Now we magically can?

Could it be were just a better team, now? Could it be it's not just all Hellebuyck?

This team has some great talent and a solid mix of player types.

I think Hellebuyck turns us from a good team to a great one, and that's ok.

That's something not even McDavid can do.

I’m no Oilers fan by any means or a huge McDavid fanboy, although I do appreciate his skill and like him more than Matthews.

I will say that he helped make the Oilers look pretty great last playoffs despite their crappy goalie That’s something Helle has yet to achieve despite the lack of a true superstar skater or suspect playoffs defense.

He needs a 2002-2003 Giguere like playoffs to drag this team into the fight.

 

[Thechozen1]

I know it’s without precedent but I think Chevy unloads Ehlers regardless of playoff position. Especially if, as Buffdog mentioned, another young player steps up. Ehlers has exceptional game changing abilities, but they always seem to disappear in the playoffs. I have a feeling Ehlers gets moved sooner than later.

A franchise like Winnipeg can ill afford to let a player like Ehlers walk for free. If they cannot or will not retain him , they need to recoup some sort of assets for the future or to be flipped for something more immediate that can help.

 

[Thechozen1]

I don't think this team is constructed to win a cup regardless of who's on the first line (unfortunately) unless they catch lightening in a bottle - which is always possible

That said, no team in the NHL has a chance of winning the cup if their best player shits the bed. Not only that, but our playoff failures last spring extended way beyond Helle

Agreed! I will not throw Helle under the bus as the sole reason the Avalanche obliterated the Jets game plan, but I do hope he (and the team) can eventually play to their regular season level, come playoff time and put the entire league on notice.

 

[Bob E]

Ehlers’ injury history concerns me. If they end up trading him, they have to wonder about the timing of that move as it’s possible he might be injured at that time. Of course that’s a risk with any pending UFA, but Ehlers seems to be an even higher risk to possibly be injured by the TDL.

 

[tbcwpg]

Ehlers’ injury history concerns me. If they end up trading him, they have to wonder about the timing of that move as it’s possible he might be injured at that time. Of course that’s a risk with any pending UFA, but Ehlers seems to be an even higher risk to possibly be injured by the TDL.

I think any team trading for him at the deadline would only care if he's ready for the playoffs. Depending on where he goes it might even be a selling point if he's on IR and his cap doesn't count for a bit.

 

[voyageur]

A franchise like Winnipeg can ill afford to let a player like Ehlers walk for free. If they cannot or will not retain him , they need to recoup some sort of assets for the future or to be flipped for something more immediate that can help.

Not sure about that. The development of Yager, Lambert, Chibrikov can offset some losses at forward next year. It's a position of depth. But that depth will be tested if the Jets lose all 4 of their UFA forwards.

 

[Jet]

I think any team trading for him at the deadline would only care if he's ready for the playoffs. Depending on where he goes it might even be a selling point if he's on IR and his cap doesn't count for a bit.

Has he ever been ready for the playoffs?

I don't think there is any chance we move Ehlers at the TDL.

Theres no way this team is not at least competing for a playoff spot.

 

[WaveRaven]

Ehlers should have been moved by now if they can't sign him.

 

[Whileee]

D men populate the list of turnovers. Demelo led all Jets last season. Pionk, Jomo and Samberg rounded out the top 5 with Ehlers

Schief and Connnor were much lower than Ehlers, which was my point. They play a possession game that involves getting the puck deep and cycling in the O zone.

Ehlers is strong off the rush

That clash of styles probably explains why they don't play together.

You may say "well, who cares since It doesn't show up in the stats"

To which I would reply "who cares that schiefs line gets outchanced since it doesn't end up in the only stat that matters - wins and losses"

The debate will never end but I would point out that the Jets' win-loss record was much better with Ehlers playing with Scheifele than when Connor played with him last season.

Last season the Jets had by far the best record in the NHL while Connor was out (13-2-2), while outscoring opponents by a remarkable 58 to 29 during that stretch. Points % without Connor was 0.824 versus 0.630 with Connor.

So they obviously were able to win with Ehlers on the top line with Scheifele, if that's how you prefer to measure success.

 

[Gm0ney]

What a massive amount of arguing three games into the season and here im too busy to really stoke the flames. Tough times.

Blame NHL scheduling for giving us 4 days off...

 

[Howard Chuck]

The debate will never end but I would point out that the Jets' win-loss record was much better with Ehlers playing with Scheifele than when Connor played with him last season.

Last season the Jets had by far the best record in the NHL while Connor was out (13-2-2), while outscoring opponents by a remarkable 58 to 29 during that stretch. Points % without Connor was 0.824 versus 0.630 with Connor.

So they obviously were able to win with Ehlers on the top line with Scheifele, if that's how you prefer to measure success.

At least you're not fanning the flames of this debate

 

[Buffdog]

The debate will never end but I would point out that the Jets' win-loss record was much better with Ehlers playing with Scheifele than when Connor played with him last season.

Last season the Jets had by far the best record in the NHL while Connor was out (13-2-2), while outscoring opponents by a remarkable 58 to 29 during that stretch. Points % without Connor was 0.824 versus 0.630 with Connor.

So they obviously were able to win with Ehlers on the top line with Scheifele, if that's how you prefer to measure success.

Wasn't there someone who brought up wins/losses with Toby in the line up vs Toby out of the line up and it was agreed upon that you can't look at things like that?

Since you used a 15 game sample size of him being injured, the Jets were 11-4 in the 15 games leading up to his injury. In other words, the team as a whole had a great 30 game stretch that spanned him both being in and being out of the lineup