Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[raideralex99]

Wow what is wrong with some of you people?
Jets are 3-0 but you would be happier if they were 0-3 as long as Ehlers is playing on the top line.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

CS_ will never be an above average 1st line at 5v5, and I can't think of a single poster here that has said that it will be

I think the flaw in your logic (as well as all the other posters banging thr same drum as you are) is thinking that it has to be in order for this team to be successful

It may not have to be in order for this team to be successful, at least in the regular season. But it looks like it would be necessary for this team to reach its full potential.

 

[Section 325]

Wow what is wrong with some of you people?
Jets are 3-0 but you would be happier if they were 0-3 as long as Ehlers is playing on the top line.

You would think that it would be a positive that the team is 3-0 without Ehlers playing his best because the team will likely be that much better with him back to his usual self.

But nope, some people just have to be all negative all the time.

 

[SLAYER]

Wow what is wrong with some of you people?
Jets are 3-0 but you would be happier if they were 0-3 as long as Ehlers is playing on the top line.

I think this is a gross oversimplification and misrepresentation of the discussion happening... Pretty sure literally everyone is happy we're 3-0 right now.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You guys need zoom out a bit

You're making it sound like the choice is play CSX on a line or play ESX on a line together

Obviously everyone and their dogs can look at the numbers and see that ESX gets better results 5v5... yet coaches continue to play Connor and Schief together. So that brings up the obvious question of "why?"

I personally believe that it's because Schief was given assurances during his re-negotiations that he'd have input into who his linemates are and that he likes playing with Connor and not with Ehlers

So had he not been given those assurances, he may have moved on, along with Helle

So there isn't a ESX choice. It's CSX or a lineup without Schief and Helle. That's the choice

TL/DR you guys are advocating for something that isn't even on the table as an option and you might as well just accept that. That said, I'm sure Schief is open to things getting switched up temporarily in the case of injuries (like when Connor went down last season) or a team slide (like when Bones reunited ESV towards the end of last season... which, by the way, went terribly)

I don't know if Scheif got any such assurance during negotiation, or not. I don't think it was necessary since he has had that for years already.

Agree though that we are arguing in favour of a nonexistent option. It couldn't be more plain that that is off the table. Why doesn't matter. That fact is frustrating. Tough.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

As for below average top lines on teams that have won, obviously there aren't any. But that said, even the best teams deploy a forward lineup that is suboptimal

For example, edmonton's best line by far would be McDrai - yet that isn't a permanent fixture. Pit separated sid and geno when they won cups, and Chicago had Kane and toews on seperate lines at 5v5

Every team in the league could stack their top line and make it better, yet they go for depth. Ehlers and Schief are our two best line drivers, it makes sense to have them each driving their own lines

As I've said before, the problem we have is a lack of super top end forwards - so I think the Jets have opted to maximize what they have through depth whereas what you're suggesting would hurt the depth of the forward group

Except that that doesn't achieve optimizing anything. We are talking about optimizing 2 lines, not maximizing 1. Both KC and Scheifele have performed better when split up. Both scoring lines have produced better. That was mostly 1 season with PLD, but it is the data that we have.

Wow what is wrong with some of you people?
Jets are 3-0 but you would be happier if they were 0-3 as long as Ehlers is playing on the top line.

Absolutely no one said that. Or implied that. Or intimated that. Or said anything that remotely hinted at that. Not one - ever.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I would say these 3 games Connor has driven that line more than schief.

Not sure that is right or wrong, but it is an interesting idea.

 

[Jet]

I'm sure the Jets have an analytics team.

I also don't really understand why this is such a contentious topic. If the Jets rolled out Comrie to play 65 games this season, and only put Hellebuyck on the ice when injury demands it, would it be controversial to point out that the lineup decisions the coaches make isn't supported by any tangential results?

LOL that's a reach.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So, is the combination of ESV and CNP collectively better in the metrics you care about than CSV and ENP over the long term? I don't feel like there's proof of that

But I feel like the convo is finally moving in the right direction

Since those line combos have never been tried it would be hard to have proof. Some data that we have suggests that that might be the case.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

TL/DR you guys are advocating for something that isn't even on the table as an option and you might as well just accept that. That said, I'm sure Schief is open to things getting switched up temporarily in the case of injuries (like when Connor went down last season) or a team slide (like when Bones reunited ESV towards the end of last season... which, by the way, went terribly)

Reality check - interesting as this discussion gets sometimes, the above is still the best post on the subject.

Through many seasons and several coaches, through thick and thin, CS_ is the line we get. That is not going to change barring something drastic, like injury or old age.

We would be further ahead discussing who should be the 3rd member of that line, or what they need to do to improve their net results.

I hate to accept that truth because I truly believe we are failing to utilize our most talented player. I especially hate to give up on it at a time when the line he is on is performing badly, but it is what it is.

I'm going to try to move on, so don't go poking me with a stick.
Grudgingly, I think it might be time for the Jets to move on from Ehlers too. If so, then the sooner the better.

 

[Romang67]

Really you are comparing the difference between Ehlers and Connor to Hellebuyck and Comrie and you want me to take you seriously.

Why 5 years go 6 years back fella...who was Scheifele's winger in his 14 goal playoff run. How many goals did Ehlers have in 2018 playoffs?

I'm comparing deliberately rolling out a suboptimal solution over an extended period when we have evidence that another solution performs much better. But fine, let's do an average goalie compared to Hellebuyck. The point isn't the quantity of difference, the point is that we have swaths of evidence that Scheifele and Connor as a duo have bad results, regardless of what metrics you're using to measure it. We also have evidence that's not always the case for Scheifele or Connor. Just when they're together.

Do you think what happened in the playoffs 6 years ago is more relevant than everything we've seen happen since?

 

[Gm0ney]

I'm comparing deliberately rolling out a suboptimal solution over an extended period when we have evidence that another solution performs much better. But fine, let's do an average goalie compared to Hellebuyck. The point isn't the quantity of difference, the point is that we have swaths of evidence that Scheifele and Connor as a duo have bad results, regardless of what metrics you're using to measure it. We also have evidence that's not always the case for Scheifele or Connor. Just when they're together.

Do you think what happened in the playoffs 6 years ago is more relevant than everything we've seen happen since?

If we put Hellebuyck at his career average of .917 against an average goalie who's a career .907 and they each face 1800 shots in a season that's 18 extra goals saved by Hellebuyck. (On an unrelated note, Scheifele+Ehlers last year at 5v5 = +14 goal diff. Scheif-Ehlers = +0).

But if the Jets were actually playing an average goalie ahead of Hellebuyck, I'm sure there'd still be posters coming out of the woodwork saying:

• Maybe he can't handle the workload.
• Maybe he doesn't communicate well with his defense.
• He's hard to play with (bad stickhandling, unpredictable).
• Maybe there are egos involved.
• Maybe the coaches (who see him in practice every day) don't like something about his game.
• ChECk tHe sTAnDiNgS!

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Wow what is wrong with some of you people?
Jets are 3-0 but you would be happier if they were 0-3 as long as Ehlers is playing on the top line.

Absolutely no one said that. Or implied that. Or intimated that. Or said anything that remotely hinted at that. Not one - ever.

Technically, you're right, Mort. It wouldn't matter to me where Ehlers played.

I think this is a gross oversimplification and misrepresentation of the discussion happening... Pretty sure literally everyone is happy we're 3-0 right now.

 

[SLAYER]

I was gonna add a disclaimer, but didn't want to single you out

I'll drop by the tank thread when it gets fired up hahaha

 

[KingBogo]

Except that that doesn't achieve optimizing anything. We are talking about optimizing 2 lines, not maximizing 1. Both KC and Scheifele have performed better when split up. Both scoring lines have produced better. That was mostly 1 season with PLD, but it is the data that we have.



Absolutely no one said that. Or implied that. Or intimated that. Or said anything that remotely hinted at that. Not one - ever.

Mort a few times you made the argument that KC and Scheifele produce more apart but other than a period where PLD actually seemed to give a shit what center are you talking about and are they an actual option for KC to play with?

 

[Frank Cannon PI]

Just looking at the games the Jets played without KFC in 2023-24. They had 12 W vs 4 L. Very impressive.

Who did they play against:

• Anaheim
• Arizona
• Boston
• Chicago x2
• Colorado
• Columbus
• Detroit
• Los Angeles
• Minnesota x2
• Montreal
• Philadelphia
• San Jose x2
• Tampa Bay

In 12 of the 16 games, they played against teams that missed the playoffs.

Of the 16 games, 7 were away games.

Josh Morrissey only registered 8 points in those 16 games, which I find interesting, but it is a small sample size.

Outside of Scheifele missing that lone game - still without KFC - vs Philadelphia, which other key member was missing during that time frame?

Looking at the teams that didn't make the playoffs:

• Anaheim (GF 30 of 32, GA 30 of 32)
• Arizona (GF 16 of 32, GA 24 of 32)
• Chicago (GF 32 of 32, GA 29 of 32)
• Columbus (GF 25 of 32, GA 31 of 32)
• Detroit (GF 9 of 32, GA 24 of 32)
• Minnesota (GF 21 of 32, GA 19 of 32)
• Montreal (GF 26 of 32, 28 of 32)
• Philadelphia (GF 27 of 32, GA 18 of 32)
• San Jose (GF 31 of 32, GA 32 of 32)

 

[Buffdog]

If we put Hellebuyck at his career average of .917 against an average goalie who's a career .907 and they each face 1800 shots in a season that's 18 extra goals saved by Hellebuyck. (On an unrelated note, Scheifele+Ehlers last year at 5v5 = +14 goal diff. Scheif-Ehlers = +0).

But if the Jets were actually playing an average goalie ahead of Hellebuyck, I'm sure there'd still be posters coming out of the woodwork saying:

• Maybe he can't handle the workload.
• Maybe he doesn't communicate well with his defense.
• He's hard to play with (bad stickhandling, unpredictable).
• Maybe there are egos involved.
• Maybe the coaches (who see him in practice every day) don't like something about his game.
• ChECk tHe sTAnDiNgS!

You don't think that if a coach was playing an average goalie ahead of helle that he'd have a valid reason for doing so, regardless if you're privy to what that reason is?

This type of arrogance is mind blowing. "I can't conceive of a reason for a coach to do something, so there isn't any possibility that such a reason could conceivably exist"

 

[voyageur]

I'm comparing deliberately rolling out a suboptimal solution over an extended period when we have evidence that another solution performs much better. But fine, let's do an average goalie compared to Hellebuyck. The point isn't the quantity of difference, the point is that we have swaths of evidence that Scheifele and Connor as a duo have bad results, regardless of what metrics you're using to measure it. We also have evidence that's not always the case for Scheifele or Connor. Just when they're together.

Do you think what happened in the playoffs 6 years ago is more relevant than everything we've seen happen since?

You guys are too much. I mean way too smart for us. It's amazing the Jets haven't fired their coaches and hired you guys yet. We'd easily win every game with all that data you have. Please stop. For the love of God. Stop talking about Ehlers like he's some kind of saviour to our team. Take away the original 5 game stretch and ESV have the same goal differential as CSI.

Enjoy the hockey on the ice.

 

[Skidooboy]

I'm comparing deliberately rolling out a suboptimal solution over an extended period when we have evidence that another solution performs much better. But fine, let's do an average goalie compared to Hellebuyck. The point isn't the quantity of difference, the point is that we have swaths of evidence that Scheifele and Connor as a duo have bad results, regardless of what metrics you're using to measure it. We also have evidence that's not always the case for Scheifele or Connor. Just when they're together.

Do you think what happened in the playoffs 6 years ago is more relevant than everything we've seen happen since?

no you are talking about fancy stats that favor Ehlers, based on zone entry primarily, that don't account for his turnovers and weak easily stopped shot attempts.
When his actual production is below par and he has previously been identified as "Hard to play with" by memebrs of the team.

I agree because Nik is so fast that his body is 15 feet ahead of his brain...which often ends up in the big circle skate, a pointless shot, a bad pass or a crappy turnover.....

So yeah MAYBE the fancy stats point to Ehlers being "better" but the REALIty is #55 and #81 ACTUALLY put pucks in the net. on the ice for real. at an ELITE level not statistically generated "expected goals". so after a 52 win season where our TOP LINE was dominant. I wonder why everyone wants to break up a good thing because ...."spreadsheets".

 

[DRW204]

So which 2C do you think the Jets will trade their 1st+ for this year?

 

[Romang67]

no you are talking about fancy stats that favor Ehlers, based on zone entry primarily, that don't account for his turnovers and weak easily stopped shot attempts.
When his actual production is below par and he has previously been identified as "Hard to play with" by memebrs of the team.

I agree because Nik is so fast that his body is 15 feet ahead of his brain...which often ends up in the big circle skate, a pointless shot, a bad pass or a crappy turnover.....

So yeah MAYBE the fancy stats point to Ehlers being "better" but the REALIty is #55 and #81 ACTUALLY put pucks in the net. on the ice for real. at an ELITE level not statistically generated "expected goals". so after a 52 win season where our TOP LINE was dominant. I wonder why everyone wants to break up a good thing because ...."spreadsheets".

Do you want to guess how Scheifele+Connor compared in actual pucks in the net minus pucks in their own net compared to Scheifele without Connor in recent years? Since those stats aren't fancy?

 

[Bob E]

So which 2C do you think the Jets will trade their 1st+ for this year?

Brock Nelson

 

[Buffdog]

Do you want to guess how Scheifele+Connor compared in actual pucks in the net minus pucks in their own net compared to Scheifele without Connor in recent years? Since those stats aren't fancy?

Just 5v5 though, right?

 

[Romang67]

Just 5v5 though, right?

Are we not talking about the first line?

 

[SLAYER]

So which 2C do you think the Jets will trade their 1st+ for this year?

It saddens me to compile this list, and some of these players may not return a 1st at the deadline (or even be available), but here are some expiring contracts for centers:

Gustav Nyquist (if the Preds are out of the playoff picture early enough that they sell)
Claude Giroux
Frank Vatrano
Mikael Granlund
Nick Bjugstad
Alex Kerfoot
Andrew Mangiapane
Robby Fabbri
JACK ROSLOVIC
Ryan Donato