Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[Gm0ney]

That'll happen when you have the best goalie on the planet

People talk about it like it's a bad thing because it's not how they think we should win

"Top line HAS to win it's matchups", they'll say

Yeah everything is great until your goalie shits the bed in the playoffs...but what are the chances of that happening?

Anyway, solid goaltending is a piece of the puzzle, but it's not the only thing. And it can obscure some more fundamental flaws if management's goal is, say, just make the playoffs and hope for the best.

You're not a true contender until you have enough to overcome your weaknesses elsewhere - and few teams win the Cup with obvious weaknesses (like a 1st line that can't outscore its opposition).

 

[Buffdog]

Yeah everything is great until your goalie shits the bed in the playoffs...but what are the chances of that happening?

Anyway, solid goaltending is a piece of the puzzle, but it's not the only thing. And it can obscure some more fundamental flaws if management's goal is, say, just make the playoffs and hope for the best.

You're not a true contender until you have enough to overcome your weaknesses elsewhere - and few teams win the Cup with obvious weaknesses (like a 1st line that can't outscore its opposition).

I don't think this team is constructed to win a cup regardless of who's on the first line (unfortunately) unless they catch lightening in a bottle - which is always possible

That said, no team in the NHL has a chance of winning the cup if their best player shits the bed. Not only that, but our playoff failures last spring extended way beyond Helle

 

[Gm0ney]

Ok, so why then?

For coaches, perhaps the eye test outweighs reality? Even though the Jets perform better with Ehlers on the ice than just about anyone else, the egregious nature of his giveaways just provokes an instinctual "No!"

For the other players, maybe it's a personality thing, maybe it's a playing style thing, maybe it's egos, maybe it's just comfort level (e.g. Scheifele wants Connor on his wing because he just feels more comfortable - and since he considers stats to be "hogwash" then there's no convincing him otherwise).

 

[KingBogo]

I know it’s without precedent but I think Chevy unloads Ehlers regardless of playoff position. Especially if, as Buffdog mentioned, another young player steps up. Ehlers has exceptional game changing abilities, but they always seem to disappear in the playoffs. I have a feeling Ehlers gets moved sooner than later.

What happens with Ehlers is the big question. In and around the draft and the start of free agency would have been the best time to make a hockey trade. Maybe the market was soft or maybe Chevy is holding to a high price? Now there is a lot of unknowns. I still think he ultimately re-signs with the Jets. If he is eventually traded does Chevy settle for the standard TDL deal of a late 1st and B prospect?

 

[10Ducky10]

Ehlers for an unproven Kulich (4 games, no points)?
Peterka for Ehlers and Stanley.

 

[Buffdog]

For coaches, perhaps the eye test outweighs reality? Even though the Jets perform better with Ehlers on the ice than just about anyone else, the egregious nature of his giveaways just provokes an instinctual "No!"

For the other players, maybe it's a personality thing, maybe it's a playing style thing, maybe it's egos, maybe it's just comfort level (e.g. Scheifele wants Connor on his wing because he just feels more comfortable - and since he considers stats to be "hogwash" then there's no convincing him otherwise).

An interesting stat that I found in all this is that Ehlers has more turnovers than takeaways - unique among Jets top 6 guys

My first reaction is that it's because he has the puck more often, but I'm not sure that's the whole explanation (based on eye test and the fact that Arniel in his summer presser stressed that the coaching staff has issues with how Ehlers plays without the puck)

I just think that there are layers and nuances to Ehlers game that don't jump off the screen or stats sheet that the coaching staff has identified but that we're unclear on

 

[Gm0ney]

View attachment 917485

On-ice goals/60 is a goal metric, not a shot metric.

Over the past 3 years at 5v5:
Ehlers + Scheifele, 918 minutes, 54 GF, 30 GA (+24)
Ehlers - Scheifele, 1616 minutes, 90 GF, 58 GA (+32)
Scheifele - Ehlers, 2620 minutes, 116 GF, 128 GA (-12)
Neither on ice, 6747 minutes, 232 GF, 214 GA (+18)

Seems like a no brainer to put them together. Like all the arguments against it are just speculating about some unknown intangible reasons.

 

[Buffdog]

On-ice goals/60 is a goal metric, not a shot metric.

Over the past 3 years at 5v5:
Ehlers + Scheifele, 918 minutes, 54 GF, 30 GA (+24)
Ehlers - Scheifele, 1616 minutes, 90 GF, 58 GA (+32)
Scheifele - Ehlers, 2620 minutes, 116 GF, 128 GA (-12)
Neither on ice, 6747 minutes, 232 GF, 214 GA (+18)

Seems like a no brainer to put them together. Like all the arguments against it are just speculating about some unknown intangible reasons.

I'm referring to xGF

Obviously there's a reason they aren't playing together despite every stat all y'all bring up. It would make sense to speculate what that might be

It's like looking at a super hot chick who is with a guy who she's obviously out of his league and wondering how he ever ended up with her - only to find out later that he's hung like a horse

 

[Gm0ney]

An interesting stat that I found in all this is that Ehlers has more turnovers than takeaways - unique among Jets top 6 guys

My first reaction is that it's because he has the puck more often, but I'm not sure that's the whole explanation (based on eye test and the fact that Arniel in his summer presser stressed that the coaching staff has issues with how Ehlers plays without the puck)

I just think that there are layers and nuances to Ehlers game that don't jump off the screen or stats sheet that the coaching staff has identified but that we're unclear on

But still, if those giveaways aren't ending up in the back of the net (and we can see from the goal stats that they aren't - or at least, whatever Connor and Scheifele are doing when not giving the puck away seems to be more consequential in terms of goals-against)...who cares? This is a bit like complaining that Hellebuyck is a poor puck handler...if he's still winning Vezinas, then so what?

Ehlers is 48th in NHL forwards in Giveaways/60 (2.14) over the last 3 seasons. The Top 8 forwards are all over 3 giveaways/60. The Top 40 is a who's who of NHL stars. Pastrnak, Jack Hughes, Draisaitl, Kucherov, Marchand, Panarin, Matthew Tkachuk, Andrei Svechnikov, Marner, Forsberg, McDavid, Kaprizov, Aho, Eichel, Stutzle, MacKinnon, Crosby, Brady Tkachuk, Jason Robertson, Pavelski, Suzuki. Like if you look through the list, the number of guys who wouldn't be on the Jets top line is a mere handful.

If we look at all skaters, Ehlers falls to 84th in the league. Logan Stanley is 8th in the NHL with 3.21 Giveaways/60...so if the Jets have a problem with giveaways, then maybe start with that guy.

 

[Buffdog]

But still, if those giveaways aren't ending up in the back of the net (and we can see from the goal stats that they aren't - or at least, whatever Connor and Scheifele are doing when not giving the puck away seems to be more consequential in terms of goals-against)...who cares? This is a bit like complaining that Hellebuyck is a poor puck handler...if he's still winning Vezinas, then so what?

Ehlers is 48th in NHL forwards in Giveaways/60 (2.14) over the last 3 seasons. The Top 8 forwards are all over 3 giveaways/60. The Top 40 is a who's who of NHL stars. Pastrnak, Jack Hughes, Draisaitl, Kucherov, Marchand, Panarin, Matthew Tkachuk, Andrei Svechnikov, Marner, Forsberg, McDavid, Kaprizov, Aho, Eichel, Stutzle, MacKinnon, Crosby, Brady Tkachuk, Jason Robertson, Pavelski, Suzuki. Like if you look through the list, the number of guys who wouldn't be on the Jets top line is a mere handful.

If we look at all skaters, Ehlers falls to 84th in the league. Logan Stanley is 8th in the NHL with 3.21 Giveaways/60...so if the Jets have a problem with giveaways, then maybe start with that guy.

D men populate the list of turnovers. Demelo led all Jets last season. Pionk, Jomo and Samberg rounded out the top 5 with Ehlers

Schief and Connnor were much lower than Ehlers, which was my point. They play a possession game that involves getting the puck deep and cycling in the O zone.

Ehlers is strong off the rush

That clash of styles probably explains why they don't play together.

You may say "well, who cares since It doesn't show up in the stats"

To which I would reply "who cares that schiefs line gets outchanced since it doesn't end up in the only stat that matters - wins and losses"

 

[Flair Hay]

D men populate the list of turnovers. Demelo led all Jets last season. Pionk, Jomo and Samberg rounded out the top 5 with Ehlers

Schief and Connnor were much lower than Ehlers, which was my point. They play a possession game that involves getting the puck deep and cycling in the O zone.

Ehlers is strong off the rush

That clash of styles probably explains why they don't play together.

You may say "well, who cares since It doesn't show up in the stats"

To which I would reply "who cares that schiefs line gets outchanced since it doesn't end up in the only stat that matters - wins and losses"

If it is ending up in less goals for or more goals against, which this does...

It does end up in wins and losses. That's the reason a lot of people care.

 

[Buffdog]

If it is ending up in less goals for or more goals against, which this does...

It does end up in wins and losses. That's the reason a lot of people care.

So you're talking goal differential. We ended up 4th in the league at +60 last year (FLA was +68)

Sitting 2nd this season

What's the problem again?