2024-25 Roster Thread #1: The Beginninging

[JojoTheWhale]

Tippett 412 minutes
Atkinson 266
TK 261
Farabee 246
Foerster 230
Brink 188

So you agree right now Frost is a middle six center, not a top six center?

To me, he and Farabee are the most frustrating players, b/c they have top six talent but haven't put it together on a consistent basis.

Scoring is stochastic, but showing up every night and controlling play is effort, skill and focus.
That's what I mean by "consistent," posting solid performances as the norm, not a big game once a week or so.

I do not categorize players as Top 6 and Bottom 6. I understand you disagree, but I am consistent in this. I go Top Line, Middle 6, and 4th Line because I believe it more accurately reflects the modern game. Bottom 6 is a term that died with the decline of the Checking 3rd Line for me.

Frost is a Middle 6 guy to me. So is Tippett for example. There are going to be a whole rainbow of not just archetypes, but season to season variation by each player that I think we overreact to in both directions. When Farabee had that absurd 5v5 Scoring year, I had the same opinion on him I do now — Middle 6 guy. Oftentimes my preference for which of those guys I would choose comes down to contract and team control.

I don’t think your eyes can judge effort and focus in real time. Nor can mine. I think it’s impossible for everyone. Big picture takes to me are far better served by numbers than live game observations. Then you apply what you see to the data that you have and use both arms to crosscheck the other and form an opinion. That’s how I believe every sport should work. It’s also the reason I kept screaming about Tulsky getting it for so long. He has explained this exact concept in interviews. You need both and you need to be the kind of leader who can make both sides understand that their input and cooperation is not just wanted, but vital.

 

[freakydallas13]

Buffalo missed the playoffs 13 STRAIGHT SEASONS (and I was told making the playoffs was no big deal).
And they'll probably miss this season as well.

They have had more wins than the Flyers for 3 straight seasons.

 

[Adam Warlock]

The whole culture and "Standard" bs falls apart quick when you play favorites.

Coots being punished bc hes not producing like he did 5 years ago despite being in his 30s with 2 back surgeries and om a bad team.

Mean while, the golden boys Tippett and TK can countinue not producing without punishment. Torts even flat out said one of the goals against was laughtons fault on Sat...yet he saw no reduced ice time. Frost was benched for far less.

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Just remember, this is precisely the "culture" they want to instill. You know, a culture of losing. A culture of allowing terrible players to keep playing. A culture that nurtures bad play and terrible contracts.

 

[deadhead]

I do not categorize players as Top 6 and Bottom 6. I understand you disagree, but I am consistent in this. I go Top Line, Middle 6, and 4th Line because I believe it more accurately reflects the modern game. Bottom 6 is a term that died with the decline of the Checking 3rd Line for me.

Frost is a Middle 6 guy to me. So is Tippett for example. There are going to be a whole rainbow of not just archetypes, but season to season variation by each player that I think we overreact to in both directions. When Farabee had that absurd 5v5 Scoring year, I had the same opinion on him I do now — Middle 6 guy. Oftentimes my preference for which of those guys I would choose comes down to contract and team control.

I don’t think your eyes can judge effort and focus in real time. Nor can mine. I think it’s impossible for everyone. Big picture takes to me are far better served by numbers than live game observations. Then you apply what you see to the data that you have and use both arms to crosscheck the other and form an opinion. That’s how I believe every sport should work. It’s also the reason I kept screaming about Tulsky getting it for so long. He has explained this exact concept in interviews. You need both and you need to be the kind of leader who can make both sides understand that their input and cooperation is not just wanted, but vital.

I kind of see it a little different.

Elite - but these guys are rare, top 5-10 forwards, top 5 D-men, the 2-3 goalies who can start 60+ games and be in the top 5 in goals less than expected.

Example, last year 3 forwards scored over 80 ES points (McKinnon, Kucherov, McDavid), 4 more scored 70+ (Matthews, Panarin, Pasternak, Crosby). Might move someone up for well above average D, or down if they're a liability - that holds for all tranches. Defense hard to judge without metrics.

ES points apply more to top players who get more 4x4 and 3x3 time than lesser talents.

lines, medians #48, #144, #240 - median b/c who wants a below average player?
median 1st line forward scored 48 ES points,
median 2nd line forward scored 33 ES points
median 3rd line forward scored 23 ES points.

If I were following your middle 6, 30-45 points would be the range, again, adjusting for defense.
When you get below 30 points, you have a mixture of subpar middle six, 4th liners and injury prone (durability is a "skill" since they're usually replaced by a replacement level player).

D-men, median #16, #48, #80, #112 for top 4.
Defensemen is tougher, there are a few elite scorers, but many top D-men are minutes eaters who are plus defensively but middle of the pack offensively. So advanced metrics are more important with this group.

I leave out PP scoring, b/c to me PP and PK are almost mirror images, and both operate as "units," as good as Ovechkin is, he's also benefited from a scheme where he had teammates who could get him the puck at the right spot before the PK could react. So I think these should be considered separately, like STs in football. So players should be judged separately for their ST contribution.

 

[deadhead]

The whole culture and "Standard" bs falls apart quick when you play favorites.

Coots being punished bc hes not producing like he did 5 years ago despite being in his 30s with 2 back surgeries and om a bad team.

Mean while, the golden boys Tippett and TK can countinue not producing without punishment. Torts even flat out said one of the goals against was laughtons fault on Sat...yet he saw no reduced ice time. Frost was benched for far less.

How is Couts being punished?

He's a middle six forward right now, who's probably better suited to LW at this point in his career and today's NHL. He'll stay at center b/c it's a black hole, but he's not the player he was 5 years ago. More likely to revive his career at LW where skating matters less and he can use his size and smarts (see Giroux).

How should they use him? He's not a 1C anymore, he struggles to make things happen on offense. He's still a solid player but would you play him ahead of Frost? After that, it's more a matter of chemistry. And he really doesn't fit an aggressive PK b/c he lacks the speed to harass D-men at the blue line.

 

[VladDrag]

How is Couts being punished?

He's a middle six forward right now, who's probably better suited to LW at this point in his career and today's NHL. He'll stay at center b/c it's a black hole, but he's not the player he was 5 years ago. More likely to revive his career at LW where skating matters less and he can use his size and smarts (see Giroux).

How should they use him? He's not a 1C anymore, he struggles to make things happen on offense. He's still a solid player but would you play him ahead of Frost? After that, it's more a matter of chemistry. And he really doesn't fit an aggressive PK b/c he lacks the speed to harass D-men at the blue line.

Two weeks ago during TC, this team had Couts centered between Michkov and TK. While he's not what he was years ago, he's also not a 4th line winger. They are all over the place in their evaluations.

 

[Kelmitchell2]

Well, he's playing better than Frost, who's supposed to be our 1C.
Frost is getting the most minutes, has the best wingers, yet he's off to an awful start.

At some point the excuses run out, time for him to step up and produce.

I'm sorry, why is frost playing bad? He's been good, tippett has killed that line by flubbing every possible opportunity

 

[deadhead]

I'm sorry, why is frost playing bad? He's been good, tippett has killed that line by flubbing every possible opportunity

Has the worst metrics of all four centers, including the 18 year old rookie.
Now he gets the toughest matchups, but rel stats partially account for this.
It's a SSS, but still not a good look to start the season.

Jo Jo has it right, he's a middle six forward, like Tippett, Farabee, Foerster and probably Brink.
He's better than Laughton, but that's not saying much.
And he's run out of excuses.

I don't care about scoring in small samples, if you're setting up scoring chances the metrics will reflect that - even if your linemates are flubbing them.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I do not categorize players as Top 6 and Bottom 6. I understand you disagree, but I am consistent in this. I go Top Line, Middle 6, and 4th Line because I believe it more accurately reflects the modern game. Bottom 6 is a term that died with the decline of the Checking 3rd Line for me.

Frost is a Middle 6 guy to me. So is Tippett for example. There are going to be a whole rainbow of not just archetypes, but season to season variation by each player that I think we overreact to in both directions. When Farabee had that absurd 5v5 Scoring year, I had the same opinion on him I do now — Middle 6 guy. Oftentimes my preference for which of those guys I would choose comes down to contract and team control.

I don’t think your eyes can judge effort and focus in real time. Nor can mine. I think it’s impossible for everyone. Big picture takes to me are far better served by numbers than live game observations. Then you apply what you see to the data that you have and use both arms to crosscheck the other and form an opinion. That’s how I believe every sport should work. It’s also the reason I kept screaming about Tulsky getting it for so long. He has explained this exact concept in interviews. You need both and you need to be the kind of leader who can make both sides understand that their input and cooperation is not just wanted, but vital.

Checking 3rd lines who can manage to outscore their opponents are the best 4th lines now. Unfortunately the Flyers haven't noticed. Oh well, maybe in the 2030s.

 

[NYCFlyer]

Has the worst metrics of all four centers, including the 18 year old rookie.
Now he gets the toughest matchups, but rel stats partially account for this.
It's a SSS, but still not a good look to start the season.

Jo Jo has it right, he's a middle six forward, like Tippett, Farabee, Foerster and probably Brink.
He's better than Laughton, but that's not saying much.
And he's run out of excuses.

I don't care about scoring in small samples, if you're setting up scoring chances the metrics will reflect that - even if your linemates are flubbing them.

Honestly, we have bottom 3 in the league centers. Frost isn't close to a 1c and essentially playing out of position. Add to that a mediocre/weak D and a backup G that isn't NHL caliber and you have a bottom 5 team. They may not admit it but they don't have to sell off guys to tank this year. They just don't have enough talent.

 

[deadhead]

CBJ has the bottom locked up in the East.
I can see the Flyers, Sabres, Pens, Caps, Habs, Senators and Islanders fighting it out for the bottom.
if the Red Wings don't make the playoffs, probably time to move on from Yzerman.

Only six PO locks, Boston, FLA, TB, Tor, NJ, NYR.
Car should, but they had a lot of losses in the offseason.
After that, 90-92 points should get you in.

There are so many weak East teams that one hot streak could be the difference maker.

 

[sauce88]

This is why it's pivotal to get a top line C, the rest of the group slots better (Frost-Couturier as the middle six Cs with Luchanko taking Couturier's spot in the future and Poehling as the 4C).

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

They're in deep dog shit, that Coots contract is seriously horrific lol.

 

[renberg]

Two weeks ago during TC, this team had Couts centered between Michkov and TK. While he's not what he was years ago, he's also not a 4th line winger. They are all over the place in their evaluations.

This is what gives the fandom the concept that the organization is inept. The constant shuffling of lines is ridiculous. If you can't tell from practice and scrimmages which players fit best with each other, you're inept.
It's different when a player gets nicked in a game and that forces line shuffling but that's not what we have here. This is a clown show where players get jacked around and don't know their roles.

 

[NYCFlyer]

Dont agree. Shuffling lines during training camp and early season is common especially for teams with an extreme weakness at a position like we have with centers. We have waaaay better examples of ineptitude like keeping the power play coach after three years of dead last or an Ahl coach that can't win or Chuck Fletcher( take your pick on his many examples). For the record I like DB but he was given a pretty bad hand so I'm willing to give him more time. I also don't think Torts is a bad coach, he has a bad team.

 

[freakydallas13]

Jo Jo has it right, he's a middle six forward, like Tippett, Farabee, Foerster and probably Brink.
He's better than Laughton, but that's not saying much.
And he's run out of excuses.

What excuses? He's a middle six center giving you middle six production. Tippet is playing even worse than Frost while making way more against the cap, and his linemates/ice team rarely get punished like Frost's does.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Honestly, we have bottom 3 in the league centers. Frost isn't close to a 1c and essentially playing out of position. Add to that a mediocre/weak D and a backup G that isn't NHL caliber and you have a bottom 5 team. They may not admit it but they don't have to sell off guys to tank this year. They just don't have enough talent.

um thats a shame..

considering DB has stated multiple times they arent trying to build with hi end talent but instead trying to get by using culture and tryhards..

 

[Curufinwe]

Frost is one of 7 forwards on the team without an ESP so far. Why anyone would be focused on just him at this point is beyond comprehension.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

 

[bennysflyers16]

Deady clearly doesn't watch the games, Poheling has been one of the worst Flyer forwards and has CLEARLY regressed from last year. He should be scratched before a promotion.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I kind of see it a little different.

Elite - but these guys are rare, top 5-10 forwards, top 5 D-men, the 2-3 goalies who can start 60+ games and be in the top 5 in goals less than expected.

Example, last year 3 forwards scored over 80 ES points (McKinnon, Kucherov, McDavid), 4 more scored 70+ (Matthews, Panarin, Pasternak, Crosby). Might move someone up for well above average D, or down if they're a liability - that holds for all tranches. Defense hard to judge without metrics.

ES points apply more to top players who get more 4x4 and 3x3 time than lesser talents.

lines, medians #48, #144, #240 - median b/c who wants a below average player?
median 1st line forward scored 48 ES points,
median 2nd line forward scored 33 ES points
median 3rd line forward scored 23 ES points.

If I were following your middle 6, 30-45 points would be the range, again, adjusting for defense.
When you get below 30 points, you have a mixture of subpar middle six, 4th liners and injury prone (durability is a "skill" since they're usually replaced by a replacement level player).

D-men, median #16, #48, #80, #112 for top 4.
Defensemen is tougher, there are a few elite scorers, but many top D-men are minutes eaters who are plus defensively but middle of the pack offensively. So advanced metrics are more important with this group.

I leave out PP scoring, b/c to me PP and PK are almost mirror images, and both operate as "units," as good as Ovechkin is, he's also benefited from a scheme where he had teammates who could get him the puck at the right spot before the PK could react. So I think these should be considered separately, like STs in football. So players should be judged separately for their ST contribution.

I think that's a perfectly reasonable approach too. My whole thing is that however you do draw these macro lines, you should be consistent. You generally are.

I'm just less confident in hard lines than almost everyone. I would push back against leaving Charlie McAvoy out of the top tier of Defensemen for example. I don't care how many Points he scores. He's everything I could possibly want in a player.

 

[deadhead]

I think that's a perfectly reasonable approach too. My whole thing is that however you do draw these macro lines, you should be consistent. You generally are.

I'm just less confident in hard lines than almost everyone. I would push back against leaving Charlie McAvoy out of the top tier of Defensemen for example. I don't care how many Points he scores. He's everything I could possibly want in a player.

I think with D-men, ES points are overrated, the difference between tranches isn't that great.
The top was 54, 11th was 41, 32nd was 30.
So to me, defensive play can more than compensate for the difference between 10 ES points over a season.

Now PP1 QB has real value, but as Ghost, Dunn, etc. show, you can be a 3rd pair D-man and a top PP1 QB. Which is why I separate ES and PP/PK play. Some really good PK D-men hardly score.

Scoring is more important with forwards, especially top scorers who tend to outperform their metrics (Kane is a good example). Defense still matters, but first line scorers often outscore their mistakes, very few D-men can do so.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Honestly, we have bottom 3 in the league centers. Frost isn't close to a 1c and essentially playing out of position. Add to that a mediocre/weak D and a backup G that isn't NHL caliber and you have a bottom 5 team. They may not admit it but they don't have to sell off guys to tank this year. They just don't have enough talent.

The mournful thing being they don't realize that they should have been selling off last year, the year before, and this year. This roster ain't It. Nothing in the pipeline will make it It. Taking steps to become It in the future is the only option and they can't figure it out.

They have one metric Michkov and 19 imperial tons of nonsense that mostly won't be relevant at all to his prime and his best window for contention. And the time to begin fixing that was the second after they said his name at the draft.

 

[mja]

Honestly, we have bottom 3 in the league centers. Frost isn't close to a 1c and essentially playing out of position. Add to that a mediocre/weak D and a backup G that isn't NHL caliber and you have a bottom 5 team. They may not admit it but they don't have to sell off guys to tank this year. They just don't have enough talent.

Jumping onto this not specifically to respond to your post but rather to delve into something that is often misunderstood about the whole "tanking" thing.

The reason you sell off guys isn't just to make the team bad so that it loses more games. It's not not a consideration, but really the reason you sell off guys is because they aren't part of any realistic future plans. So you sell them off so that you can collect as many assets as you can, because that's the only way to turn the thing around.

 

[VladDrag]

Has the worst metrics of all four centers, including the 18 year old rookie.
Now he gets the toughest matchups, but rel stats partially account for this.
It's a SSS, but still not a good look to start the season.

Jo Jo has it right, he's a middle six forward, like Tippett, Farabee, Foerster and probably Brink.
He's better than Laughton, but that's not saying much.
And he's run out of excuses.

I don't care about scoring in small samples, if you're setting up scoring chances the metrics will reflect that - even if your linemates are flubbing them.

I hate doing this because THEY ARE 5 GAMES IN.... With that being said, he's the second best setter on the team.