I do not categorize players as Top 6 and Bottom 6. I understand you disagree, but I am consistent in this. I go Top Line, Middle 6, and 4th Line because I believe it more accurately reflects the modern game. Bottom 6 is a term that died with the decline of the Checking 3rd Line for me.
Frost is a Middle 6 guy to me. So is Tippett for example. There are going to be a whole rainbow of not just archetypes, but season to season variation by each player that I think we overreact to in both directions. When Farabee had that absurd 5v5 Scoring year, I had the same opinion on him I do now — Middle 6 guy. Oftentimes my preference for which of those guys I would choose comes down to contract and team control.
I don’t think your eyes can judge effort and focus in real time. Nor can mine. I think it’s impossible for everyone. Big picture takes to me are far better served by numbers than live game observations. Then you apply what you see to the data that you have and use both arms to crosscheck the other and form an opinion. That’s how I believe every sport should work. It’s also the reason I kept screaming about Tulsky getting it for so long. He has explained this exact concept in interviews. You need both and you need to be the kind of leader who can make both sides understand that their input and cooperation is not just wanted, but vital.
I kind of see it a little different.
Elite - but these guys are rare, top 5-10 forwards, top 5 D-men, the 2-3 goalies who can start 60+ games and be in the top 5 in goals less than expected.
Example, last year 3 forwards scored over 80 ES points (McKinnon, Kucherov, McDavid), 4 more scored 70+ (Matthews, Panarin, Pasternak, Crosby). Might move someone up for well above average D, or down if they're a liability - that holds for all tranches. Defense hard to judge without metrics.
ES points apply more to top players who get more 4x4 and 3x3 time than lesser talents.
lines, medians #48, #144, #240 - median b/c who wants a below average player?
median 1st line forward scored 48 ES points,
median 2nd line forward scored 33 ES points
median 3rd line forward scored 23 ES points.
If I were following your middle 6, 30-45 points would be the range, again, adjusting for defense.
When you get below 30 points, you have a mixture of subpar middle six, 4th liners and injury prone (durability is a "skill" since they're usually replaced by a replacement level player).
D-men, median #16, #48, #80, #112 for top 4.
Defensemen is tougher, there are a few elite scorers, but many top D-men are minutes eaters who are plus defensively but middle of the pack offensively. So advanced metrics are more important with this group.
I leave out PP scoring, b/c to me PP and PK are almost mirror images, and both operate as "units," as good as Ovechkin is, he's also benefited from a scheme where he had teammates who could get him the puck at the right spot before the PK could react. So I think these should be considered separately, like STs in football. So players should be judged separately for their ST contribution.
