2024-25 Roster Thread #1: The Beginninging

[Hollywood Cannon]

Helmet sponsor! These hype videos for an advertisement always makes me chuckle.

 

[deadhead]

But just yesterday, you had Torts talking pretty specifically about their center depth, and in turn giving away information about the organizational (or at least his personal) philosophy. Torts is actively turning down a 50 point player in Frost because he doesn't 'fit' his mold of what a player looks like. He talks up Noah Cates because that's the type of player that 'fits' his mold. Torts did it with Karlsson and with Zuccarello...He's not going to change now.

So while I want to agree that the Flyers aren't that silly -- we're actively seeing it. We're actively seeing a team turn down effective players because of fit. I'd have a lot more confidence if they got rid of Torts and instilled Shaw as the coach.

Torts praised Frosts' talent, and has no complaints about his defense, etc.
His problem with Frost is Frost doesn't produce when he's given the linemates and PT.
Some players just aren't as good as fans think they are.

Frost started for two years, began this year as the 1C/2C with Couts, and flopped.
Frost's wings this season:
Tippett 81
MIchkov 56
TK 54
Foerster 50
Laughton 25
Brink 24
Farabee 15
He's not playing with Cates, Hathaway, Poehling, Deslauriers, No checking duties.
Want to whine about Tippett? Then explain why he's so much better with Couts?

 

[Appleyard]

Of course context matters, that 50 point player might be a 30 point player on that 3rd line and only PP2 time, but still wants to be paid like a 50 point player. There's lots of players who were marginal on good teams who scored like a demon on a bad team in an offense first role.

Agents look at their clients through rose colored glasses, of course.

The real finds are younger players with the talent to be 50 point players, but can't get the PT on a top team - but that's tricky, Lundell eventually worked out in Florida but Newhook went to Montreal and actually got worse.

You know that is not what I am speaking about...

and ofc part of speaking to agents is knowing what rough level their clients actually are. (tell some teams that though ahahaha) Also... the same ~15 agencies represent 80% of the world's top players. Sometimes teams are making decisions on guys represented by the same people...

But there are some teams who truly believe that they should still have a "top 6" and that if a player is not 6'0+, plays "good" D (IE hits or blocks shots), then they cant play bottom six... even if the team in question has a bad bottom six that dont score and get scored on a lot.

In turn such teams usually end up with 4-5 top 6 players and a bottom six that struggle to score and are actually bad defensively because hitting and blocking a lot mean a lot of time in your own zone!

 

[deadhead]

You know that is not what I am speaking about...

and ofc part of speaking to agents is knowing what rough level their clients actually are. (tell some teams that though ahahaha)

But there are some teams who truly believe that they should still have a "top 6" and that if a player is not 6'0+, plays "good" D (IE hits or blocks shots), then they cant play bottom six... even if the team in question has a bad bottom six that dont score and get scored on a lot.

In turn such teams usually end up with 4-5 top 6 players and a bottom six that struggle to score and are actually bad defensively because hitting and blocking a lot mean a lot of time in your own zone!

I'd think contracts and team structure plays a big role in that thinking.

If you're paying 2 or 3 top forwards 10% of your cap, and 3 more 6%, close to half of your cap will be in your top 6, then throw in your top 4 D-men and goalie. Think Toronto, Colorado, etc.

That means a good team isn't going to want a 50 point scorer on the 3rd line, getting 3rd line minutes (which means they score 35 instead of 50) if they have to pay a 50 point price. You can get two way 25 point muckers with similar net impact at a much lower cost.

Scorers don't necessarily help with possession, many bottom six guys are great at possession but lousy at finishing, while many second tier scorers are lousy at possession but excel at finishing.

Are these players being offered at a discount?

 

[renberg]

Being real, I'd have a lot more confidence if they got rid of Torts in favor of anyone. Shaw, Lappy, Rocky, doesn't matter, because I don't think any of them would get the deference Torts gets in terms of building the roster. Sure, they're probably all worse coaches (maybe not Shaw, I would be reasonably happy promoting him) but at least they'd be in the appropriate place in the pecking order. Torts is not.

There is something rotten in the core in this franchise. The deference given to a coach who hasn't done a thing in almost twenty seasons but drag down his teams is stunning. On Monday night we saw the Flyers playing the Torts/right way against a decent team. They could barely get the puck out of their own end for two periods while falling behind 3-0. Sure they made it close in the third when the Avs took their foot off of the gas to make the game look closer than it really was.
There is no reason to believe that Tortorella has any answers for improving this club. Trading guys that he dislikes and keeping plugs that he does is not going to bring success. Frost is center-bench/trade him; Cates is a LW-use him as a center. This is genius?
The Flyers are going to be a middling non PO team until they ditch the mentality that they have of playing hockey from the Bullies era in 2025. Trading out players is just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. The Flyers need to get rid of their Edward Smith and a philosophy that supports hitting icebergs rather than avoiding them. Nothing improves while you are doing the same thing.

 

[Appleyard]

I'd think contracts and team structure plays a big role in that thinking.

If you're paying 2 or 3 top forwards 10% of your cap, and 3 more 6%, close to half of your cap will be in your top 6, then throw in your top 4 D-men and goalie. Think Toronto, Colorado, etc.

That means a good team isn't going to want a 50 point scorer on the 3rd line, getting 3rd line minutes (which means they score 35 instead of 50) if they have to pay a 50 point price. You can get two way 25 point muckers with similar net impact at a much lower cost.

Scorers don't necessarily help with possession, many bottom six guys are great at possession but lousy at finishing, while many second tier scorers are lousy at possession but excel at finishing.

Are these players being offered at a discount?

"Team structure"

yes.

But that is often a very antiquated view. And why every year we see teams trade guys/move on from them/not give them a chance who some would see as "top six or bust" type players... who then go on to play important roles for better teams.

You need some solid PK guys. Ideally ofc not everyone is small. But primarily having as many good players as possible is what makes teams good.

Contracts? There is a reason each year that guys are left on the shelf, sign cheap deals then hit 40+ points with solid D and it is entirely predictable.

Also, all the good teams have at least 1x ~45 point guy on their 3rd line! Because most good teams just try and get the best players and dont fit guys into their specific holes they pre-determine.

Also, there are very few cases where having 2x 25 point muckers over 1x 50 point guy makes any sense. Because you can get 25 point muckers for 900-1m every year, and any decent organisation should have guys that level in AHL anyway. But teams who are not so smart pay ~$2-3m for guys who get 20-25 points and hamstring selves... when very few players who get less than ~30 points are, in a vacuum, worth over $2m.

Also, not many ~50 point guys, even the one dimensional ones, get caved tbh... while every other 25 point player does tbh. Because in part 5v5 scoring especially has a high % of correlation to possession figures, as one would expect. And to defy that mathematically given the amount of shots etc players take a season? A player has to either shoot 15-20% consistently or be truly horrific on D.

Yeh, those guys exist! Kuznetsov in his last 2 seasons... Kessel in recent years... Evander Kane... TJ Oshie pre-retirement... but they are few and far between and in a lot of cases even with awful possesion the bump in production in the right role means their RAPM etc can be higher than a solid 2-way 25 point guy.

 

[deadhead]

Frost is not a player you build around, he's not a top 6 center, and he's not a guy who'll raise the play of lesser wings as a 3C. He doesn't PK and he's generally on PP2. He'd have to sign a team friendly contract to be worth keeping. He's gotten plenty of opportunities to shine and has fallen short.

Cates is a role player, and they don't think he's anything more, or Torts wouldn't talk about the need to get multiple centers. But he's a better fit in the bottom six than Frost. Torts is going to push him on offense to round out his game, not turn him into a 2C.

The problem against the Avs was talent, period. Look at the defense they put out there.
They need 2 centers (hopefully Jett is one of them), another top 4 D-man, and a couple goalies to emerge from the scrum.

 

[deadhead]

"Team structure"

yes.

But that is often a very antiquated view. And why every year we see teams trade guys/move on from them/not give them a chance who some would see as "top six or bust" type players... who then go on to play important roles for better teams.

You need some solid PK guys. Ideally ofc not everyone is small. But primarily having as many good players as possible is what makes teams good.

Contracts? There is a reason each year that guys are left on the shelf, sign cheap deals then hit 40+ points with solid D and it is entirely predictable.

Also, all the good teams have at least 1x ~45 point guy on their 3rd line! Because most good teams just try and get the best players and dont fit guys into their specific holes they pre-determine.

Also, there are very few cases where having 2x 25 point muckers over 1x 50 point guy makes any sense. Because you can get 25 point muckers for 900-1m every year, and any decent organisation should have guys that level in AHL anyway. But teams who are not so smart pay ~$2-3m for guys who get 20-25 points and hamstring selves... when very few players who get less than ~30 points are, in a vacuum, worth over $2m.

Also, not many ~50 point guys, even the one dimensional ones, get caved tbh... while every other 25 point player does tbh. Because in part 5v5 scoring especially has a high % of correlation to possession figures, as one would expect. And to defy that mathematically given the amount of shots etc players take a season? A player has to either shoot 15-20% consistently or be truly horrific on D.

Yeh, those guys exist! Kuznetsov in his last 2 seasons... Kessel in recent years... Evander Kane... TJ Oshie pre-retirement... but they are few and far between and in a lot of cases even with awful possesion the bump in production in the right role means their RAPM etc can be higher than a solid 2-way 25 point guy.

What the good teams do is add veteran scorers to the 3rd line on team friendly contracts, because often veterans in their 30s lack the legs for a top 6 role, but can produce with sheltered minutes. And because they've made their money, they're more willing to take less for a shot at the Cup. These sort of veterans also tend to be productive on PP b/c less skating is involved.

But that option isn't available to lesser teams, they tend to add veteran scrubs who want to prove themselves or get a last contract or just love the game (EJ) to patch a lineup so kids don't have to be rushed. Veteran scorers don't go to those teams to play on the 3rd line unless it's a one year "prove I still got it" deal.

Sure, there are a few doofus GMs left, though less than there used to be, but the Cap results in a lot of sorting, 50 point caliber players in their 20s aren't leaving $10M on the table to play on the 3rd line of a SC contender.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

She's getting there! She's starting to try and do more and more, and I understand, I haven't pressured her, or forced her, but doing it all has been difficult as hell especially since the baby still isn't sleeping through the night, not sure why, she will be 10 months old in 4 days

Thats all you can do. Try to take on as much as you can, be patient and it will pass.

As far as the sleep you're probably doing everything you should. People never like to admit it but there is a huge element of luck with babies. You could be doing everything you're friends are to try to promote good sleep, but you just got a baby that doesn't sleep well.

That will pass too. But damn if it isn't hard while going through the process.

 

[TCTC]

Frost is not a player you build around, he's not a top 6 center, and he's not a guy who'll raise the play of lesser wings as a 3C. He doesn't PK and he's generally on PP2. He'd have to sign a team friendly contract to be worth keeping. He's gotten plenty of opportunities to shine and has fallen short.

Cates is a role player, and they don't think he's anything more, or Torts wouldn't talk about the need to get multiple centers. But he's a better fit in the bottom six than Frost. Torts is going to push him on offense to round out his game, not turn him into a 2C.

The problem against the Avs was talent, period. Look at the defense they put out there.
They need 2 centers (hopefully Jett is one of them), another top 4 D-man, and a couple goalies to emerge from the scrum.

I know it's supposed to be the Grateful Dead in your profile picture, but I see John Lennon and Leonardo DiCaprio, and I can't unsee it.

 

[Appleyard]

What the good teams do is add veteran scorers to the 3rd line on team friendly contracts, because often veterans in their 30s lack the legs for a top 6 role, but can produce with sheltered minutes. And because they've made their money, they're more willing to take less for a shot at the Cup. These sort of veterans also tend to be productive on PP b/c less skating is involved.

But that option isn't available to lesser teams, they tend to add veteran scrubs who want to prove themselves or get a last contract or just love the game (EJ) to patch a lineup so kids don't have to be rushed. Veteran scorers don't go to those teams to play on the 3rd line unless it's a one year "prove I still got it" deal.

Sure, there are a few doofus GMs left, though less than there used to be, but the Cap results in a lot of sorting, 50 point caliber players in their 20s aren't leaving $10M on the table to play on the 3rd line of a SC contender.

The option is available more than you would expect! And not with veterans but guys in their 20s still...

heck... someone is likely going to get that in their middle six soon (~40-50 point scorer with solid D for probably nothing) with Frost!

 

[deadhead]

The option is available more than you would expect! And not with veterans but guys in their 20s still...

heck... someone is likely going to get that in their middle six soon (~40-50 point scorer with solid D for probably nothing) with Frost!

Or they'll get the guy who had one good season and never approached it again.
There are more of those guys than solid 2nd line centers.
Look at Matt Read, for example.

 

[freakydallas13]

Or they'll get the guy who had one good season and never approached it again.
There are more of those guys than solid 2nd line centers.
Look at Matt Read, for example.

Matt Read was Frost's current age by the time he played his first NHL game.