2024-25 Roster…too soon?

[Bubba88]

Hawks don't have a Saros. Could figure it out if needed to get him playing time.

I don't think the Preds want him in the Division, the price might be a bit higher than outside the Division/Conference.
With recent 2nd round picks invested in Goalies and still having lots of picks to gamble on one higher, I don't the interest is high. Pretty sure Preds would want help for the roster, maybe a Center. Not really a strenght here. They might take Reichel+, but I don't think Kyle will want that.

 

[TheFridge]

the difference between 48 and 30 with regards to this is not so significant as to warrant bolded emphasis. as mentioned previously by someone else, starters and backups aren't as distinct in the ahl as they are in the nhl. i really just used "starter" as a term of convenience, and my point doesn't turn on that specific phrase.


sure, at the same time, only three goalies played as many or more games than commesso and had a worse save percentage. only five played at least 2000 minutes with a worse save percentage.

It completely turns because the pool of players implied by using "starter" and the actual pool of players is 46% larger. Being 27th out of 48 means you were middle of the pack instead of, as you said in your original post, "statistically amongst the worst starters in the league."

You can move the goalposts as much as you'd like. At the end of the day, Commesso and Askarov played in the same league last year and Askarov's sv% was barely better than Commesso's. Askarov, despite all the pedigree and all the hype from his draft year, barely out-performed a player from his same draft year who was in his rookie pro season. Askarov was not one of the top goaltenders in the AHL. He hasn't been a top goaltender in any league he's played in since his draft year.

 

[Malaka]

It completely turns because the pool of players implied by using "starter" and the actual pool of players is 46% larger. Being 27th out of 48 means you were middle of the pack instead of, as you said in your original post, "statistically amongst the worst starters in the league."

You can move the goalposts as much as you'd like. At the end of the day, Commesso and Askarov played in the same league last year and Askarov's sv% was barely better than Commesso's. Askarov, despite all the pedigree and all the hype from his draft year, barely out-performed a player from his same draft year who was in his rookie pro season. Askarov was not one of the top goaltenders in the AHL. He hasn't been a top goaltender in any league he's played in since his draft year.

Stat watching ahl goalies is not recommended

No system can be implemented usually for players because it’s the jungle where everybody is for themselves who has one goal m to make the NHL which leads to individual selfish decision making and broken braindead plays

Playing a goalie in that setting and for reasons beyond that =/= NHL translation.

The teams are playing with spare parts whose skaters are trying to find & develop their game as well and if not they are plugs. For goalies at that level it’s more about finding and correcting weaknesses/habits of your technical game at the micro level(or literally building it from scratch depending on the goalie and goaltending dev/director), and your strengths should theoretically overpower players at that level and cheese your team to win games or inflate sv% if you are starter quality… but that doesn’t mean readiness like I’m saying and that also said if your style is a quiet game in the vein of commesso, or more athletic like askarov, strengths can backfire in a setting like that. It’s way more random, way less linear, your judgement and reads aren’t solid or ever the same, etc.

I’m not calling it peewee hockey comparatively but even for skaters developing and trying to confer nhl readiness, it would not really reflect the game the NHL is and playing in an nhl system against mutant level talent so instead of taking cues on the environment it’s typically more of a focus on refining your own game.

And lastly in this sort of instability and chaos of a league/team it makes it harder to compare goaltenders with stats like sv%

Where do the starters of today’s NHL rank on average amongst their AHL peers year over year? Could imagine they’re closer to the top, but id bet it’s random

 

[statswatcher]

It completely turns because the pool of players implied by using "starter" and the actual pool of players is 46% larger. Being 27th out of 48 means you were middle of the pack instead of, as you said in your original post, "statistically amongst the worst starters in the league."

i don't have to shift the goalposts, everything i've said is factual. you yourself said that the list isn't listing "starters", rather it's listing goalies above a certain minutes played threshold. there were 17 goalies in the ahl with a better sv% than commesso and at least 2000 minutes played. correcting my previous post, there were only five with 2000+ minutes and a worse save percentage.

commesso is 27th of 48 on that list of "qualified goalies", and 18th of 23 on the list if you filter by 2000+ minutes. askarov is 17th of 48 and 12th of 23. this means objectively that among goalies with 2000+ ahl minutes last year, commesso's save percentage was in the ~22nd percentile while askarov's was in the ~48th. among all "qualified goalies" (presumably all goalies with 1400+ ahl minutes), commesso's sv% was in the ~44th percentile while askarov's was in the ~64th. given these numbers, and assuming we are hazarding to take ahl goalie numbers seriously, i feel absolutely justified in my assertion that askarov was statistically at best a mediocre ahl starter while commesso was among the worst.

 

[statswatcher]

That's the difference between allowing 5 more goals for every 1000 shots faced and allowing 34 more goals for every 1000 shots faced.

it's actually worth digging into this a little bit further because i have nothing better to do than run numbers right now (and i have been known to be sloppy so i encourage anyone reading this to check my work).

askarov allowed 4 more goals than commesso and played 6 more games (338 more minutes). askarov faced 1.8 fewer shots/60 than commesso, and made about 1.2 fewer saves/60. askarov allowed about 2.34 goals/60 and commesso 2.64. this means that every 10 periods of play you would expect commesso to give up 1 goal more than askarov, and so, all other things being equal, if rockford had askarov in net for all of commesso's 38 games you would expect them to have allowed about 11.4 fewer goals on the season.

 

[OldScool]

it's actually worth digging into this a little bit further because i have nothing better to do than run numbers right now (and i have been known to be sloppy so i encourage anyone reading this to check my work).

askarov allowed 4 more goals than commesso and played 6 more games (338 more minutes). askarov faced 1.8 fewer shots/60 than commesso, and made about 1.2 fewer saves/60. askarov allowed about 2.34 goals/60 and commesso 2.64. this means that every 10 periods of play you would expect commesso to give up 1 goal more than askarov, and so, all other things being equal, if rockford had askarov in net for all of commesso's 38 games you would expect them to have allowed about 11.4 fewer goals on the season.

Absolutely useless and inaccurate information. In no way are you calculating the impact that Milwaukee Admirals had a far more superior team and I guarantee a much, much better defensive team. You don't take into consideration any factors or PP goals or where goals came from - high quality vs low quality shots, etc. You are taking Commesso's stats on an inferior team and Askarovs stats on a superior team and trying to mix them. Doesn't work at all across teams.

 

[statswatcher]

Absolutely useless and inaccurate information. In no way are you calculating the impact that Milwaukee Admirals had a far more superior team and I guarantee a much, much better defensive team. You don't take into consideration any factors or PP goals or where goals came from - high quality vs low quality shots, etc. You are taking Commesso's stats on an inferior team and Askarovs stats on a superior team and trying to mix them. Doesn't work at all across teams.

"all other things being equal" is an abstraction meant to indicate that i am doing rough and ready napkin math. regardless, i gave the deltas between their respective shots and saves per 60 to indicate that even if you normalize for work load askarov still saved more shots than commesso disproportionate to how many saves fewer askarov had to make. the only pertinent piece of information i will acknowledge i'm missing here is shot quality data, and i'm not entirely convinced shot quality data isn't snake oil to begin with.

 

[OldScool]

"all other things being equal" is an abstraction meant to indicate that i am doing rough and ready napkin math. regardless, i gave the deltas between their respective shots and saves per 60 to indicate that even if you normalize for work load askarov still saved more shots than commesso disproportionate to how many saves fewer askarov had to make. the only pertinent piece of information i will acknowledge i'm missing here is shot quality data, and i'm not entirely convinced shot quality data isn't snake oil to begin with.

To compare goalies across teams is next to impossible. One goalie can save 50 shots from the blue line and have fantastic stats and one goalie can see 50 breakaways and save 40 and his stats look crappy. Nevermind shots that are tipped or where the goalie has zero chance of saving - those impact the goalies stats as well. I think the dumbest stat is goalie wins. Goalie could give up 1 goal and get a loss and another goalie gives up 10 and gets a win.

What does make sense to me is improvement and development by the season and year to year. That show progress and the prospect is improving. This was interesting to me and probably a reason why Nashville didn't hand anything to Askarov. As the season went on he regressed and obviously that's an opportunity to improve upon.

Commesso had a 2.93GAA and a .897 first half of season.
Commesso had a 2.63GAA and a .913 second half of season.
He improved by .3 GAA per game and improved .16 in save percentage.

Askarov had a 2.33 GAA and a .921 first half of season.
Askarov had a 2.81 GAA and a .901 second half of season.
He regressed by .48 GAA and dropped .19 in save percentage

 

[TheFridge]

i don't have to shift the goalposts, everything i've said is factual. you yourself said that the list isn't listing "starters", rather it's listing goalies above a certain minutes played threshold. there were 17 goalies in the ahl with a better sv% than commesso and at least 2000 minutes played. correcting my previous post, there were only five with 2000+ minutes and a worse save percentage.

commesso is 27th of 48 on that list of "qualified goalies", and 18th of 23 on the list if you filter by 2000+ minutes. askarov is 17th of 48 and 12th of 23. this means objectively that among goalies with 2000+ ahl minutes last year, commesso's save percentage was in the ~22nd percentile while askarov's was in the ~48th. among all "qualified goalies" (presumably all goalies with 1400+ ahl minutes), commesso's sv% was in the ~44th percentile while askarov's was in the ~64th. given these numbers, and assuming we are hazarding to take ahl goalie numbers seriously, i feel absolutely justified in my assertion that askarov was statistically at best a mediocre ahl starter while commesso was among the worst.

No one has to shift goalposts, but you have and you did.

The best part about this picking apart of the numbers is that the difference between a goaltender in the 44th percentile or the 64th is 5 more saves for every 1000 shots faced. It's a statistically irrelevant difference. Which was my original point.

Now you can frame that statistically irrelevant difference as you like (and as you have). But it doesn't matter. 0.5% is the difference. If you're going to move assets to secure an upgrade over Commesso, it should probably be for a goaltender who would be clearly an upgrade.

 

[statswatcher]

To compare goalies across teams is next to impossible.

not really, it's just limited and low resolution. hence all the qualifications i've been making.

No one has to shift goalposts, but you have and you did.

no i didn't. i gave you an assertion, backed it up when challenged, and even extended the analysis in a futile attempt to satisfy you.

The best part about this picking apart of the numbers is that the difference between a goaltender in the 44th percentile or the 64th is 5 more saves for every 1000 shots faced. It's a statistically irrelevant difference.

the difference is, as i said, about a goal every 10 periods. not extreme, but also not negligible. i would describe it as appreciable.

Now you can frame that statistically irrelevant difference as you like (and as you have). But it doesn't matter. 0.5% is the difference.

and that 0.5% is the difference between being a statistically mediocre to below average starting ahl goaltender and being among the worst.

If you're going to move assets to secure an upgrade over Commesso, it should probably be for a goaltender who would be clearly an upgrade.

i wouldn't move assets for askarov, and i'm not even looking to make an upgrade over commesso. all i am saying is that there was an appreciable statistical difference between the two in the last ahl season. the most i would say in terms of trade value based on these numbers is i'd trade commesso for askarov straight-up, and that would not happen.

 

[TheFridge]

not really, it's just limited and low resolution. hence all the qualifications i've been making.

no i didn't. i gave you an assertion, backed it up when challenged, and even extended the analysis in a futile attempt to satisfy you.

the difference is, as i said, about a goal every 10 periods. not extreme, but also not negligible. i would describe it as appreciable.


and that 0.5% is the difference between being a statistically mediocre to below average starting ahl goaltender and being among the worst.

i wouldn't move assets for askarov, and i'm not even looking to make an upgrade over commesso. all i am saying is that there was an appreciable statistical difference between the two in the last ahl season. the most i would say in terms of trade value based on these numbers is i'd trade commesso for askarov straight-up, and that would not happen.

You absolutely did my guy.

One goal every 10 periods is absolutely negligible. Thank you for framing it that way, it lends itself well to my argument.

If the difference between mediocre and amongst the worst is 1 goal every 10 periods, doesn't seem like it's worth the distinction.

Agree on the value of Askarov, disagree on the appreciable difference between he and Commesso.

 

[ello]

You absolutely did my guy.

One goal every 10 periods is absolutely negligible. Thank you for framing it that way, it lends itself well to my argument.

If the difference between mediocre and amongst the worst is 1 goal every 10 periods, doesn't seem like it's worth the distinction.

Agree on the value of Askarov, disagree on the appreciable difference between he and Commesso.

Not really. That's like a 2.1 GAA vs 2.43 GAA

One's seen as pushing Vezina calibre while the other is middle of the pack starter

 

[Northernhawk]

Stat watching ahl goalies is not recommended

No system can be implemented usually for players because it’s the jungle where everybody is for themselves who has one goal m to make the NHL which leads to individual selfish decision making and broken braindead plays

Playing a goalie in that setting and for reasons beyond that =/= NHL translation.

The teams are playing with spare parts whose skaters are trying to find & develop their game as well and if not they are plugs. For goalies at that level it’s more about finding and correcting weaknesses/habits of your technical game at the micro level(or literally building it from scratch depending on the goalie and goaltending dev/director), and your strengths should theoretically overpower players at that level and cheese your team to win games or inflate sv% if you are starter quality… but that doesn’t mean readiness like I’m saying and that also said if your style is a quiet game in the vein of commesso, or more athletic like askarov, strengths can backfire in a setting like that. It’s way more random, way less linear, your judgement and reads aren’t solid or ever the same, etc.

I’m not calling it peewee hockey comparatively but even for skaters developing and trying to confer nhl readiness, it would not really reflect the game the NHL is and playing in an nhl system against mutant level talent so instead of taking cues on the environment it’s typically more of a focus on refining your own game.

And lastly in this sort of instability and chaos of a league/team it makes it harder to compare goaltenders with stats like sv%

Where do the starters of today’s NHL rank on average amongst their AHL peers year over year? Could imagine they’re closer to the top, but id bet it’s random

Corey Crawford

He played FIVE full seasons in the AHL, he was basically 2B to Antti Niemis’ 2A behind Cristobal Huet in 2009-10 preseason…

He very easily could have been asked he Cup goalie in 2010 as well

Then in 2010-11 the Hawks chose Marty Turco over Jose Theodore in free agency to be the veteran in net with a then 26 yr old rookie(he had played 8 NHL games) Crawford as backup…he eventually passed Turco and was the MAIN reason the Hawks almost came back vs Vancouver in seven games, played amazing in the OT filled series vs Phoenix, and eventually won Cups in 2013 and 2015(with a shutout in the Cup winning game)

FIVE full AHL seasons before becoming an NHL regular…FIVE!

Corey Crawford

He played FIVE full seasons in the AHL, he was basically 2B to Antti Niemis’ 2A behind Cristobal Huet in 2009-10 preseason…

He very easily could have been asked he Cup goalie in 2010 as well

Then in 2010-11 the Hawks chose Marty Turco over Jose Theodore in free agency to be the veteran in net with a then 26 yr old rookie(he had played 8 NHL games) Crawford as backup…he eventually passed Turco and was the MAIN reason the Hawks almost came back vs Vancouver in seven games, played amazing in the OT filled series vs Phoenix, and eventually won Cups in 2013 and 2015(with a shutout in the Cup winning game)

FIVE full AHL seasons before becoming an NHL regular…FIVE!

 

[statswatcher]

You absolutely did my guy.

i honestly don't believe so.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Who gives a shit

 

[statswatcher]

Who gives a shit

someone somewhere presumably

 

[dreadpirateroberts]

Would you guys have offered something like this?

 

[Blackhawkswincup]

Would you guys have offered something like this?

Essentially would have had to offer up

Soderblom
Moore
Leafs 2025 1st

Nah

If we didn't have Commesso and didn't sign Broissot, then maybe but with Commesso and Gajan in system and two vets signed over next 2 years at NHL level the Hawks were not a fit

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Sharks are rebuilding like champs. Lots of talent there.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

Sharks are rebuilding like champs. Lots of talent there.

No defense still.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

No defense still.

Sam Dickinson is a good start.

 

[belfour30]

Essentially would have had to offer up

Soderblom
Moore
Leafs 2025 1st

Nah

If we didn't have Commesso and didn't sign Broissot, then maybe but with Commesso and Gajan in system and two vets signed over next 2 years at NHL level the Hawks were not a fit

Nah swap Moore with Vanacker.

 

[clydesdale line]

No defense still.

Oh 100% but it's not like they've neglected completely either. They got Dickinson who I'm on record in saying he'll end up being the best defenseman in the draft and Leo Sahlin-Wallenius looks promising. They also have Cagnoni and Pohlkamp in the system too (neither guy is in the Dickinson elite range but they both can be solid bottom pair guys).

 

[belfour30]

Oh 100% but it's not like they've neglected completely either. They got Dickinson who I'm on record in saying he'll end up being the best defenseman in the draft and Leo Sahlin-Wallenius looks promising. They also have Cagnoni and Pohlkamp in the system too (neither guy is in the Dickinson elite range but they both can be solid bottom pair guys).

The Hawks haven't neglected F but I'm still not happy with what they have outside of Bedard.

If I were a Sharks fan I wouldn't be happy with their D prospects.

Which group would you rather have right now? Hawks or Sharks?

 

[clydesdale line]

The Hawks haven't neglected F but I'm still not happy with what they have outside of Bedard.

Of course you aren't. Unless they're generational talents you are never happy. Hell, you criticized Bedard during the season too when he wasn't PPG playing with crap.