Blue Jays Discussion: 2024-25 Off-season: The free agent watch begins (and sometimes old baseball radio broadcasts)
- Thread starter The Nemesis
- Start date
-
Work is still on-going to rebuild the site styling and features. Please report any issues you may experience so we can look into it. Click Here for Updates
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
The devil's advocate position that I can honestly say has some merit is that the relief pitching market is usually fool's gold at the top. Teams outbidding each other for "proven closers" that cost like 3x what a comparable middle/late relief guy that doesn't have a gaudy save total would. You can make a case that it's better to let teams scrape the top layer off the relief market on big contracts and then go out and sign 3-5 of the next tier guys for what you'd pay 1 or 2 of the big ticket names.
This is why I advocate for bullpen thunderdome every spring. Relievers are voodoo and you're better off having as many options as you can to cobble together a decent pen than putting all of your eggs into a basket with a couple of big names because there's every chance it could blow up.
Just as an example, here's a list from MLB.com of the 2023-24 off-season RP market, ranked by 2023 fWAR. For each I'm going to point out their 2024 bWAR (I know I'm switching sites, but that's just because BRef opens easier for me and has better contract data).
Bolded names were guys who have history as a closer
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TH]Player[/TH]
[TH]Contract[/TH]
[TH]2024 bWAR[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Reynoldo Lopez[/TD]
[TD]3y/$8m per (+Team Option)[/TD]
[TD]5.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Josh Hader[/TD]
[TD]5y/$19m[/TD]
[TD]0.6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jakob Junis[/TD]
[TD]1y/$7m[/TD]
[TD]1.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Craig Kimbrel[/TD]
[TD]1y/$13m (+Team Option)[/TD]
[TD]-1.1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Matt Moore[/TD]
[TD]1y/$9m[/TD]
[TD]-0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Joe Jimenez[/TD]
[TD]3y/$8m-9m[/TD]
[TD]1.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]David Robertson[/TD]
[TD]1y/$11.5m (+Mutual Option)[/TD]
[TD]1.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Chris Stratton[/TD]
[TD]1y/$4m (+Player Option)[/TD]
[TD]-0.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dylan Floro[/TD]
[TD]1y/$2.25m[/TD]
[TD]-0.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Brasier[/TD]
[TD]2y/$9m[/TD]
[TD]0.2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nick Martinez*[/TD]
[TD]1y/$14m (+Player Option)[/TD]
[TD]4.0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Buck Farmer[/TD]
[TD]1y/$2.25m[/TD]
[TD]1.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Luis Garcia[/TD]
[TD]1y/$4.25m[/TD]
[TD]-0.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Liam Hendriks**[/TD]
[TD]2y/$2m+$6m (+Mutual Opt)[/TD]
[TD]DNP - injured[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Aroldis Chapman[/TD]
[TD]1y/$10.5m[/TD]
[TD]0.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jesse Chavez (yes, really)[/TD]
[TD]1y/$740k[/TD]
[TD]0.7[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Andrew Chafin[/TD]
[TD]1y/$4.75m[/TD]
[TD]0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jordan Hicks***[/TD]
[TD]4y/$11m[/TD]
[TD]0.9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Joe Kelly[/TD]
[TD]1y/$8m[/TD]
[TD]-0.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]John Brebbia[/TD]
[TD]1y/$5.5 (+Team Option)[/TD]
[TD]-0.5[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Source: https://www.mlb.com/news/2023-24-mlb-free-agents-by-position
*Martinez was listed as a reliever but seems to be more of an opener/swingman type as he logged over 140 IP and had a bunch of starts on his record. So the $ value of the contract is a little out of line compared to other RPs
** Hendriks signed with the expectation that he would be unlikely to pitch last season. However he was also paid $15m by the White Sox to buy out the final year of his deal.
***Hicks was signed with the expectation that he would be converted to starter, which he mostly was. And he sucked at it.
Not a great sample size, but of those top 20 relievers there were 4 guys with significant closing experience, all of them except Hendricks got over $10m per season (and Hendricks was being paid more than $10m to offload his previous contract) and not one of them provided any more value to their team in terms of actual performance than any of the random other non-closer RPs, most of whom were getting like half as much money.
That's why teams should always go after the second wave of the RP market and not necessarily be locked into things now while all the big names are on the board. Big budget teams are going to fight over closers because it's flashy and they have reputations for success, but it's rarely worth the massive markup you pay for the save totals. They're also just as likely to flop as any other random reliever and at that point I'd rather be on the hook for the comparatively lesser salary when you've gotta go out and spend money to replace him.
Killer Orcas
Registered User
You should work for the Jays that is a very well written and thought out analysis. I will say I hope they have a plan and go after arms that show they can produce but try to get at least a guy or two that has some high leverage experience. I'm frustrated in that they always seem to be looking at a lottery tickets to fill that role. Cheers
It would be hilarious if this FA period ends with Teoscar in a Jays uniform again.
Trade him for not a lot in retrospect, he leaves and finds new life with LA only to come back here for more money than he would have gotten if they re-signed him at the end of 2022.
I think he ultimately ends up in Boston though. Sox struck out on Soto and he was apparently their plan B.
Trade him for not a lot in retrospect, he leaves and finds new life with LA only to come back here for more money than he would have gotten if they re-signed him at the end of 2022.
I think he ultimately ends up in Boston though. Sox struck out on Soto and he was apparently their plan B.
- Dec 12, 2017
- 25,609
- 12,158
If they can add that, they could get ~85 wins and be in the play in contention.
It should be noted that most Jays fans wanted nothing to do with Hader (there were some huge red flags) and Kimbrel (thought was that he might be cooked).
It is definitely true that buying relievers can be painful, but when management doesn't accumulate very good options in-house, that is where Toronto is (having to sign or trade to get a BP).
Of the guys on the market, Finnegan would be great if he'd sign a Green-like contract (2 years to hit free agency on a high).
The Jays need to either sign or trade for someone who makes Green an 8th inning guy.
The issue is that the Jays BP was the worst in baseball and let its best pitcher go. I'd have no problem if the team wanted to trade Romano and get another BP arm back. I'd have no problem if they signed him to a 1 year deal and potentially walk him to FA. Letting him go for nothing hurts a little though, because if he's healthy, he's underpaid (and if he isn't, you can still backfill and get that top end when he does get healthy).
I will accept that Swanson and Green are good options in the pen. Where I have issues is every other guy. Maybe Ryan Burr has figured it out as a reliever. I'd be willing to take that gamble, but hopefully, he'd be one of the bottom guys in the pen.
Of the rest, Tyler Heineman and Ernie Clement had a higher fWAR as pitchers.
The team wants to convert Yariel Rodriguez to a RP, but his struggles will be magnified in that role (unless they somehow fix his problems, at which point he should be starting). He does not understand how to get strike three.
Danner will be given a long look, because he is out of options as will Pop (Danner has pitched well and might actually win a role out of ST, whereas Pop still has some big things to work on). Nick Robertson is also a candidate, but these guys should be fighting Burr for the bottom end (with 2 or 3 at most of Burr/Danner/Pop/Rodriguez in the pen).
On the left side, Eisert is the only real lefty in the system of note, and I'm not sure what the upside is at the end of the day. If he doesn't get claimed in the R5, Trenton Wallace could be a sleeper here, and if the Jays want to try to add an option themselves, they could go after Ryan Webb (CLE) or Bryan Magdaleno (TEX).
The Rule 5 draft is tomorrow btw, and while I doubt Toronto takes someone (that doesn't seem to be Atkins' MO), they should take someone because it could potentially fill a gap in the roster (or make possible a cheap buy a prospect for cash deal).
There was a lot of back and forth last year, because below Ohtani, there were quite a few guys that should have been available on the trade market that would have made the remaining FA a finishing touch on an offseason.
What we witnessed was Atkins refusing to make a deal then signing pieces that somewhat fit but didn't really address any of the team's needs (signing Kiermaier to play CF when they had a CF and signing IKF to replace Chapman when they desperately needed some power).
This year, I don't think that there is any goodwill left with management. There are still options that could build a very good team, but pursuing Soto without signing Vladdy or Bo is reckless at best. If Shapiro wasn't in charge, Atkins would have been fired as soon as he brought the plan to senior management.
With the number of open spots available in the pen, it seems like a great time to take someone in the Rule 5 and let him fight for a spot. They've had some success with that (Biagini) and shown a willingness to be creative about it (Luciano) in the past. I hope they take someone.
The two guys I mentioned might actually be better options today than Eisert (it's at least a decent debate). If you don't like that option, there's a couple of AL East teams with righties who appear to have some potential.
And if you don't like any of those options, you could go after one of the guys with injury trouble knowing that you can essentially hide him.
- Dec 12, 2017
- 25,609
- 12,158
With a lot of things going against the team, will it be difficult for them to sign players without overpaying or offering out clauses?
Lame duck President which also means GM
Depleted farm system
The manager
Playing in Toronto
Unsigned Bo and Vlad
Lame duck President which also means GM
Depleted farm system
The manager
Playing in Toronto
Unsigned Bo and Vlad
leafsfan2point0
Registered User
- Jun 8, 2011
- 2,059
- 2,487
These two clowns have completely ruined this team. Anyone could see this coming a mile away. There’s no way Bo and Vladdy are signing here if Dumb and Dumber are still here. They’ve 100% made them feel like backup plans.
Almost as if it wasn’t the complete opposite previously. Ironic
Team is not good and people have no faith in this management group who has been here 9 years now and are about to lose Vladdy and Bo.
You wonder why people are upset ?
The players seem to really like playing for Schneider. You can question his in-game decision making all you want but, if anything, playing for Schneider is probably a selling point.
- Dec 12, 2017
- 25,609
- 12,158
Assuming some players don’t really care about winning it might be a selling point.
People have a right to be upset yes. But the point has already been made multiple times by multiple posters. Do we really need to see it over and over and over and over and over again?Almost as if it wasn’t the complete opposite previously. Ironic
Team is not good and people have no faith in this management group who has been here 9 years now and are about to lose Vladdy and Bo.
You wonder why people are upset ?
TheMadHatTrick
Registered User
- Nov 2, 2008
- 7,156
- 3,345
Boston or St Louis gets #1, right?
Brendon Little looked decent enough last year - I assume he holds one of the lefty slots as of now, at least ahead of Eisert.
First chance at the first pick since the lottery has been implemented! Let’s go!
Right but this is a forum everyone can post freely (I would hope).
You might not like to see it but it is what it is. Others on here block the negative posters because they only want to see like minded opinions.
Fine. Fine. This will be my last post on the subject for now. But I'm just trying to figure out what you are trying to accomplish by saying the saying the same again and again. It would be just as annoying if posters were saying the same positive thing over and over.
Last edited:
Possibly, ya.
But in fairness, they’ve done well in the SP department….so there’s some reasonable hope on that front.
Atkins comments about power were a bit disconcerting. So, that’s a bit more concerning.
Guess we should take a moment too to remember that Click is back there doing some work, and he’s generally well regarded.
Maybe people want to vent and voice there frustrations with this team, I see nothing wrong with. No different as some of posters here think everything is just peachy and defend everything as if they are representing the front office. They could be just as passionate as any other member on here. I get it.
Let’s face it we are looking at another rebuild if Vladdy and Bo walk, Berrios will opt out and that is this managements fault. Nobody wants to have to go through that again.
