Speculation: 2024-25 - Free Agency/Trade Thread

Dr Johnny Fever

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If Gibby doesn't turn into a pumpkin first, his play this year has to be something a serious cup contender can't ignore. Obviously it has to be a deal both sides can live with, but if he can help win you a cup this year those last 2 years of his deal are meaningless. Pat needs to get creative and find a way to make something happen here. Preferably for roster help and not just more picks.
 

FiveTacos

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If Gibby doesn't turn into a pumpkin first, his play this year has to be something a serious cup contender can't ignore. Obviously it has to be a deal both sides can live with, but if he can help win you a cup this year those last 2 years of his deal are meaningless.

Cap going up and goalie salaries getting stupid will help us.
 

MMC

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Zegras & McTavish to Toronto for Marner ( sign & trade 8 yrs x 14 million ) Robertson, Hildeby, & a 1st Rd pick in 2026

Tavares Matthews Domi
A. Nylander Zegras W. Nylander
McMann McTavish Knies
Paciorrety Minten Lorentz
Instead of outright blasting you for coming to our board to post this bullshit I’ll instead ask you why you think we give a shit what Toronto’s lines look like after they fleece us in a trade?
 

duckpuck

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Having a poor backup goalie could ruin Dostal by running him to the ground b/c the any coach that wants to preserve their job would want the best possible outcome. I've shared a table showing the production each game by our netminders in other posts. Cronin ran Dostal into the ground and Dostal faltered hard for three consecutive games. When Gibby returned, Dostal was able to get some much needed time off and rest to bounce back.

Let's not repeat history again and believe having a poor backup will not have a material impact on the team. Our netminders are the only reason we're close to .500 in 20 games. Dostal could be wrecked and we would take a tremendous step backwards.



Improved goal scoring with great goaltending could launch us into the next tier. We have so many young, offensive forwards that with better coaching the improved scoring should happen far sooner than improving our 5v5 defense.

IMO, this is another development season since it's year 3 of the Verbeek reset rebuild. Keeping Gibson for this season preserves Dostal and still allows for growth for our youths despite getting caved in. It would also give us ample time to find a better backup goalie than settle for a "poor backup" for 3/4ths of the season.

That is a whole lot of words based on your not reading my post. I said passable, not poor. And even if the backup is "poor" as you postulate, it does not mean that Dostal will be run into the ground.
 
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Ducks DVM

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That is a whole lot of words based on your not reading my post. I said passable, not poor. And even if the backup is "poor" as you postulate, it does not mean that Dostal will be run into the ground.
Our coaching staff has proven that they will ride a player into the ground if the options are inferior enough. Dostal also had his play fall off when he was being given too many starts. It’s not an unreasonable postulate.
 
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Hockey Duckie

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That is a whole lot of words based on your not reading my post. I said passable, not poor. And even if the backup is "poor" as you postulate, it does not mean that Dostal will be run into the ground.

Reimer would fit your definition of "passable" and the org still didn't trust him in a normal goalie rotation. And as for your stipulation that even with a "poor" goalie that Dostal wouldn't be run into the ground, then you didn't pay attention at all to this season NOR looked at the spoiler table given.

In the first 13 games of the season, Dostal played in 11 games, doing two 5-consecutive game stints. Anaheim did run Dostal in the ground and his play suffered for three consecutive games, Game 11, 12, and 13. These are factual events that have already occurred.


1733001990833.png
 
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duckpuck

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Our coaching staff has proven that they will ride a player into the ground if the options are inferior enough. Dostal also had his play fall off when he was being given too many starts. It’s not an unreasonable postulate.
Dostal is on a pace to play 50 games which is pretty typical for a starter. He may have had a heavier load early as most goalies do, but Reimer got starts in the typical spots (back to back games). If the ducks have a passable backup - which is my postulate - then Dostal will play that number of games.

This is just silliness to claim that the back up goalie on this team is an important component of making the playoffs. They've had excellent goal tending and they're a .500 team. If the ducks can trade Gibson for something of value, they should. And just to be clear, I have not been on the trade Gibson now bandwagon. But either way it is not a needle mover this year.
 
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duckpuck

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Reimer would fit your definition of "passable" and the org still didn't trust him in a normal goalie rotation. And as for your stipulation that even with a "poor" goalie that Dostal wouldn't be run into the ground, then you didn't pay attention at all to this season NOR looked at the spoiler table given.

In the first 13 games of the season, Dostal played in 11 games, doing two 5-consecutive game stints. Anaheim did run Dostal in the ground and his play suffered for three consecutive games, Game 11, 12, and 13. These are factual events that have already occurred.


View attachment 937980

"There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics” In this case "Consecutive 5 game stints" is doing a lot of work to mislead.

How many back to back games did Dostal play? None. Did the ducks have the fewest games to start the season in the NHL, therefore spreading out the workload/pace? Yes they did.

Dostal's workload to start a season with that schedule is pretty typical of a starter. Consistent with how Gibson has started most seasons. And the Ducks knew that Gibson would return at which point things would balance out.
 

Zegs2sendhelp

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Faber, Buium and Jiricek is a pretty damn solid young future D core.
Ya thats a disgusting young D core... id say its right up there with Devils.

Honestly didnt pay that much depending on how much you like Hunt... but a late 1st, a late 2nd and a solid d prospect for a top d prospect.
 
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Ducks DVM

sowcufucakky
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Dostal is on a pace to play 50 games which is pretty typical for a starter. He may have had a heavier load early as most goalies do, but Reimer got starts in the typical spots (back to back games). If the ducks have a passable backup - which is my postulate - then Dostal will play that number of games.

This is just silliness to claim that the back up goalie on this team is an important component of making the playoffs. They've had excellent goal tending and they're a .500 team. If the ducks can trade Gibson for something of value, they should. And just to be clear, I have not been on the trade Gibson now bandwagon. But either way it is not a needle mover this year.
The average starter on a playoff team got you ~50-75 points last year, with the guys at the higher end usually ~60 games. It took 94 points to make the playoffs in the East, 98 in the West.

Basic math says you’re not going anywhere without a backup that can get you 30-40 points out of their 20-30 games.
 

FiveTacos

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Faber, Buium and Jiricek is a pretty damn solid young future D core.

It's good on paper, albeit we have to see whether or not Jiricek is actually an outright bust, which is not off the table. He's still very young though, I would never write off a dman at 22, and how much is just him being mishandled?

But the fact that he's 6'4" with mobility and raw skill is what's going to buy him more time, moreso any actual flashes of high level play. And some big dmen do indeed take longer ... he might not pan out until his mid 20s and it wouldn't be at all unreasonable.
 
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duckpuck

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The average starter on a playoff team got you ~50-75 points last year, with the guys at the higher end usually ~60 games. It took 94 points to make the playoffs in the East, 98 in the West.

Basic math says you’re not going anywhere without a backup that can get you 30-40 points out of their 20-30 games.
My eyes and experience (and the math) tell me this ducks team is not going to be a playoff team no matter who the back up goalie is. The ducks have had the best goaltending in the league thus far (arguably) and they're not a playoff team. That's the ultimate point.

And that is even before the notion that if you're not a playoff team, you're ultimately better off losing more so who cares about at a back up goalie?
 

DavidBL

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Canes just yanked Spencer Martin after 5 goals on 28 shots. They have to be another team carefully watching Gibson right now.

Edit - and the second shot gets by Perets, 6-0
What does a deal with Carolina look like? They don't really have cap space and I do not even know who we could take that makes sense even if the main return is just picks.
 
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Ducks DVM

sowcufucakky
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My eyes and experience (and the math) tell me this ducks team is not going to be a playoff team no matter who the back up goalie is. The ducks have had the best goaltending in the league thus far (arguably) and they're not a playoff team. That's the ultimate point.

And that is even before the notion that if you're not a playoff team, you're ultimately better off losing more so who cares about at a back up goalie?
You shifted the goalposts twice there.

The initial postulate was that too many games could wear Dostal down. If the backup sucks, Cronin will overplay the starter, because losing gets coaches fired. Nobody has a crystal ball, but he’s never stayed at a top level for anywhere near 50 games. He may maintain, he may fall off. SOME goalies, when they get shelled asa young player, get ruined. Having a safety net is prudent.

Teams do not try to lose at this point in the rebuild. They want players to think there’s a chance of playoffs for the franchise, and either won’t sign or will force their way out otherwise - see : Sabres, Buffalo.
 

Hockey Duckie

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"There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics” In this case "Consecutive 5 game stints" is doing a lot of work to mislead.

How many back to back games did Dostal play? None. Did the ducks have the fewest games to start the season in the NHL, therefore spreading out the workload/pace? Yes they did.

Dostal's workload to start a season with that schedule is pretty typical of a starter. Consistent with how Gibson has started most seasons. And the Ducks knew that Gibson would return at which point things would balance out.

I guess by your logic, Dostal giving up 14 goals in three non-back-to-back games is the norm. Gonna be hard to sell that perspective to the masses.

For someone who says "Stats are lies", you are gonna have to prove "Consistent with how Gibson has started most seasons" with actual facts. People tend to have biased memories when it comes to recalling events, which is why we rely on recorded facts. Anyhow, this ploy of yours is called deflection and moving the goal post because you are neglecting what has already transpired this year that doesn't fit your projected thought.

Don't hate the numbers when it's reflective of recorded history. Recorded history isn't biased nor fiction.
 

duckpuck

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You shifted the goalposts twice there.

The initial postulate was that too many games could wear Dostal down. If the backup sucks, Cronin will overplay the starter, because losing gets coaches fired. Nobody has a crystal ball, but he’s never stayed at a top level for anywhere near 50 games. He may maintain, he may fall off. SOME goalies, when they get shelled asa young player, get ruined. Having a safety net is prudent.

Teams do not try to lose at this point in the rebuild. They want players to think there’s a chance of playoffs for the franchise, and either won’t sign or will force their way out otherwise - see : Sabres, Buffalo.
I did not shift goal posts and you are incorrect about the "initial postulate." I said that: (i) in a gibson trade, the ducks would end up with a passable (not "bad") backup which is all they need (e.g., Gorgiev); and (ii) the ducks having an above average backup (as they do currently) really doesn't matter. This is not a playoff team.

It was Hockey Duckie who moved the goal posts with a digression of what a bad goal tender might mean and speculation about Dostal playing too much.

If Dostal is your starter then he needs to learn to play 50+ games. That isn't ruining him. He's 24, not 20. And again, the ducks will have an average or better backup in my view.

Its fine for you to disagree. But don't claim I've moved the goal posts.

I guess by your logic, Dostal giving up 14 goals in three non-back-to-back games is the norm. Gonna be hard to sell that perspective to the masses.

For someone who says "Stats are lies", you are gonna have to prove "Consistent with how Gibson has started most seasons" with actual facts. People tend to have biased memories when it comes to recalling events, which is why we rely on recorded facts. Anyhow, this ploy of yours is called deflection and moving the goal post because you are neglecting what has already transpired this year that doesn't fit your projected thought.

Don't hate the numbers when it's reflective of recorded history. Recorded history isn't biased nor fiction.

This is a prime example of how you use "statistics" to dissemble. Yes - Dostal has had bad games.
So you're going to focus on those 3 games (not back to back) rather than the overall numbers (which are very good). Cherry picking at its finest, particularly when you consider that a goalie can play well and still give up a lot of goals (particularly on recent ducks teams).

And then you're going to take a 10-15 game sample and interpret it w/o any context - the exact context I provided which goes against your narrative (i.e., the atypical structure of the ducks schedule, with fewer games of the stated period, made playing Dostal a lot the correct choice). Notably, you didn't address this.

By analogy, I could claim that playing Dostal as the ducks did is "obviously" a good thing because his save percentage is .922 which I believe is top 5 in the league. He's also leading the league in goals saved metrics. I mean, the results speak for themselves, don't they? The ducks are obviously doing the right thing - after all its recorded history that Dostal has played VERY well this year before Gibson returned!

You think your "numbers" are dispositive. They are not, particularly because you cherry pick the numbers to reflect your narrative. You are selecting the "recorded history" which fits your narrative. This is not the first time.

Interpretation of raw data (as you attempt to do) has nuance and doesn't dictate solely one clearly correct conclusion. That is why "statistics lie" and your charts convince no one - most people understand what your doing here.

If the goal is to have the best possible record this season, you keep Gibson. If the goal is to build a better roster in order to be a playoff contender, you trade him now when he has value. It’s pretty much that simple.

I think this is correct. It does depend on what the return is for Gibson but, like you, I'm assuming its not much to help the NHL roster this year.
 
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Hamilton Bulldogs

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If the goal is to have the best possible record this season, you keep Gibson. If the goal is to build a better roster in order to be a playoff contender, you trade him now when he has value. It’s pretty much that simple.
His value isn’t all that high. Goalies aren’t valued very highly league wide. A recent vezina winner only got a first round pick. I don’t know what a return for Gibson would look like but I have a hard time believing it would help any playoff aspirations more than having two good goalies would.
 
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FiveTacos

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His value isn’t all that high. Goalies aren’t valued very highly league wide.

It would take a very specific set of events lining up to get a crazy good return. He'd have to play out of his mind all year, a team would have to be absolutely loaded for bear yet lacking a goalie at deadline, their window would have to be soon so they'd be desperate, and there would have to be literally no other remotely decent options.
 
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