Speculation: 2024-25 - Free Agency/Trade Thread

[All Mighty]

This is interesting work and I hope it leads to some useful data. Two possibilities to add:

- Did he try to go forward with the faceoff? This isn't common, but it does happen sometimes, particularly in the offensive zone.

- This is harder to track, but I think is one of the key aspects to a faceoff win or loss - did a winger have a significant impact in the faceoff? If so, which winger? In other words, did the faceoff result in a puck battle by the wingers, and if so, who was the winner/loser of the puck battle?

I will try to incorporate your 2nd suggestion. It would be good to see if Duck wingers help their centers less frequently than their opponents. Thank you!

 

[FlyingV09]

Here is a screenshot of 1 period's worth of data from my master spreadsheet:
View attachment 926579

And here is an explanation on a few of the variables (columns on the spreadsheet) I'm tracking:

Reason - What caused the faceoff. Mainly tracking this to see how they do after icings and penalties where one team should have noticeable advantage.

Side - What side of the ice (from a Ducks' perspective) the faceoff takes place.

Strong - Is this faceoff on the Duck player's strong side? And OppStrong asks the same question for the opponent.

Kick - Did the Duck player get kicked? And if so, who was it?

OppKick - Did an opposing player get thrown out of the circle?

Clean - This is the only real arbitrary thing I'm tracking. I have refined my definition to: "A faceoff win is considered clean if the team that was officially credited with the win gets initial, legitimate possession of the puck." I'm tracking this because there are varying degrees to winning and losing a draw. A clean win to a teammate is obviously better than a win where your winger gets outworked and loses the puck battle.


Does anyone have any other suggestions on things I can track for each faceoff? Preferably something that isn't time consuming as I do this live while the play is going on.

This is good stuff. The one thing I noticed is although the face off is in the neutral zone, a centre can still be on his strong side. It more comes down to what side the ref is dropping the puck. If you’re right handed, and the ref is on your right, then I would still consider it the strong side.

Your body naturally wants to turn in the direction of the ref, because that’s the way your head is turned to watch his hand. If it’s on your forehand, you have to work sort of cross body and you have less leverage.

 

[All Mighty]

This is good stuff. The one thing I noticed is although the face off is in the neutral zone, a centre can still be on his strong side. It more comes down to what side the ref is dropping the puck. If you’re right handed, and the ref is on your right, then I would still consider it the strong side.

Your body naturally wants to turn in the direction of the ref, because that’s the way your head is turned to watch his hand. If it’s on your forehand, you have to work sort of cross body and you have less leverage.

That’s interesting. I’ll do some more research on that.

 

[Kalv]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1852813301136171436

Carcone would bring some much needed speed and we only had one guy (Vatrano) score more than 21 goals last year. Another left shot winger isn't ideal and I'm sure PV would prefer a bigger body but I'd still gladly take a cheap flier on this one. Could send Cutter down to regain his offensive touch, no panic here but maybe he could use it.

He's 5'9 so he's probably not that effective for dump & chase :/

 

[robbieboy3686]

There’s a thread that teams interested in Trent Frederic… I’ve always wanted that player. He checks every box . Haven’t seen this seasons stats, I guess he’s having a rough start. He would fit right in on this team in that regard

 

[DavidBL]

There’s a thread that teams interested in Trent Frederic… I’ve always wanted that player. He checks every box . Haven’t seen this seasons stats, I guess he’s having a rough start. He would fit right in on this team in that regard

Fabbri for Fredric makes sense. He's more of s 3rd liner right?

 

[robbieboy3686]

Fabbri for Fredric makes sense. He's more of s 3rd liner right?

That could work. I really don’t know what the bruins are looking for in return, would imagine a roster player + pick? And yes, I believe he’s a 3rd line center?age 26… 48g 96pts 296 career games, fights well and is tough as nails. Having a rough start to the season. I would be all in on him if he’s also good at face offs( can’t find his face off stats ) 44.5% career face offs. This dude + gaucher filling in our bottom 6 for the future would add that much needed grit+ skill to our bottom 6

 

[tomd]

Fabbri for Fredric makes sense. He's more of s 3rd liner right?

Frederick is everything that Gaucher is supposed to become. Way more valuable than Fabbri.

 

[robbieboy3686]

Frederick is everything that Gaucher is supposed to become. Way more valuable than Fabbri.

I’ve always wanted Frederic on our team badly.

 

[Hey234]

I’ve always wanted Frederic on our team badly.

The problem is Frederic is just another improvement around the margins of the team. He is not a core player who will move the needle. Could he help the team, sure. The Ducks don't need that type of change. They need high end players who score and lead on the ice.

If I was PV, I would be hitting the phones trying to pry out a top 6 scoring winger somewhere. Also, I would be willing to overpay in picks as the Ducks don't need prospects who will be ready in 4-6 years, they need players now to help establish this core. It wouldn't mind trading for Frederic, but it just feels like putting a bandaid on a much larger issue.

 

[DavidBL]

Frederick is everything that Gaucher is supposed to become. Way more valuable than Fabbri.

So we add? No idea what Boston is looking for. We don't need picks and as long as it's not our first I don't see an issue. Assuming Boston is willing.

 

[robbieboy3686]

The problem is Frederic is just another improvement around the margins of the team. He is not a core player who will move the needle. Could he help the team, sure. The Ducks don't need that type of change. They need high end players who score and lead on the ice.

If I was PV, I would be hitting the phones trying to pry out a top 6 scoring winger somewhere. Also, I would be willing to overpay in picks as the Ducks don't need prospects who will be ready in 4-6 years, they need players now to help establish this core. It wouldn't mind trading for Frederic, but it just feels like putting a bandaid on a much larger issue.

Naw Frederic is a guy you bring in as well as a top 6. With the top 6 winger hopefully being more age appropriate than stamkos would’ve been. Also, Frederick is a tough enough and good enough fighter that all of you who hate boss Ross Johnston, well that might be the end for Ross if we got him + gaucher coming in who’s tough and can fight if needed too.

 

[robbieboy3686]

So we add? No idea what Boston is looking for. We don't need picks and as long as it's not our first I don't see an issue. Assuming Boston is willing.

So we add? No idea what Boston is looking for. We don't need picks and as long as it's not our first I don't see an issue. Assuming Boston is willing.

Fabri+ 2nd to make sure it gets done. Or maybe lacombe +2nd if they want a young dman… Frederic is 26, he’s super age appropriate to boot

 

[tomd]

Fabri+ 2nd to make sure it gets done. Or maybe lacombe +2nd if they want a young dman… Frederic is 26, he’s super age appropriate to boot

Nope. Try zegras for an extended Frederick.

 

[Vaakou]

Nope. Try zegras for an extended Frederick.

 

[DavidBL]

Nope. Try zegras for an extended Frederick.

That's laughable and you know it.

 

[Static]

It should give everyone pause that a team like Boston would be open to moving him. Why would that be the case?

 

[tomd]

That's laughable and you know it.

Really? They both have 1g 2a this year but Frederick checks every PV box that Zegras doesn't. Boston needs a scoring center; the Ducks need more size and belligerence in their lineup. I'm not sure I'd like the deal but it is a deal that would benefit both teams...as opposed to the usual "LaCombe and a 2nd" tripe.

It should give everyone pause that a team like Boston would be open to moving him. Why would that be the case?

$$$ and a slow start.

 

[DavidBL]

Really? They both have 1g 2a this year but Frederick checks every PV box that Zegras doesn't. Boston needs a scoring center; the Ducks need more size and belligerence in their lineup. I'm not sure I'd like the deal but it is a deal that would benefit both teams...as opposed to the usual "LaCombe and a 2nd" tripe.


$$$ and a slow start.

I'm sorry but just be cause they have similar stats right now doesn't erase their histories or their age differences. Zegras still has potential to be what everyone expected him to be. Just because they both fill respective needs doesn't make their values remotely similar. 3rd liners don't return young players like that. Is there even 1 example of that actually happening?

 

[tomd]

I'm sorry but just be cause they have similar stats right now doesn't erase their histories or their age differences. Zegras still has potential to be what everyone expected him to be. Just because they both fill respective needs doesn't make their values remotely similar. 3rd liners don't return young players like that. Is there even 1 example of that actually happening?

Our opinions are noted.

 

[All Mighty]

Nope. Try zegras for an extended Frederick.

“If they make that trade, I hope the Ducks bleed” or whatever insane thing you said about trading for Eichel.

EDIT: I was sorta close

 

[tomd]

“If they make that trade, I hope the Ducks bleed” or whatever insane thing you said about trading for Eichel.

Again, I'm not proposing the trade just saying that the value is probably about equal. It is wishful thinking to believe that Zegras still has value around the league. That said, I don't think PV would make that trade now and I don't think Frederick would sign a long-term extension now.

But Zegras is very rapidly approaching "reclamation project" territory and his value around the league is probably very low. He is not the same player he was 2 years ago for whatever reason. Hopefully he begins to get it together sooner than later.

 

[DavidBL]

Again, I'm not proposing the trade just saying that the value is probably about equal. It is wishful thinking to believe that Zegras still has value around the league. That said, I don't think PV would make that trade now and I don't think Frederick would sign a long-term extension now.

But Zegras is very rapidly approaching "reclamation project" territory and his value around the league is probably very low. He is not the same player he was 2 years ago for whatever reason. Hopefully he begins to get it together sooner than later.

Can't say I agree(shocker, I know). The entire team is struggling to score. Since going back to center Zs underlying numbers are much improved.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Again, I'm not proposing the trade just saying that the value is probably about equal. It is wishful thinking to believe that Zegras still has value around the league. That said, I don't think PV would make that trade now and I don't think Frederick would sign a long-term extension now.

But Zegras is very rapidly approaching "reclamation project" territory and his value around the league is probably very low. He is not the same player he was 2 years ago for whatever reason. Hopefully he begins to get it together sooner than later.

I’m 110% certain that opposing teams can look at the Ducks coaching, system, and roster and determine that 11 games haven’t ruined Zegras forever. He had 8 points in his last 8 games at the end of last season when he was finally healthy. He’s currently passing to someone who couldn’t score in a morgue, and who isn’t passing to him when he’s wide open (because Gauthier’s brain clicks to SHOOT before cycling through AIM).

Zegras has flaws, but “reclamation project” describes 95% of our roster by that standard.

 

[FiveTacos]

But Zegras is very rapidly approaching "reclamation project" territory and his value around the league is probably very low. He is not the same player he was 2 years ago for whatever reason. Hopefully he begins to get it together sooner than later.

Was responding in one of the Z threads on the other boards, and looked closer at the numbers. Between last year and this year, he's had 18 points in about 40ish games.

However if you look closer, he has had 9 of those points in the last few games of last season plus the couple of recent games, all while playing C.

Additionally, out of his remaining 7 points from last year, 5 were scored in games where he was back at C because Leo was out.

Add it all up, and it's 14 points in just over 20 games, so project it out and he's right around his 60 point pace. But at LW, he only has 4 points in a similar number of games.

I'm now convinced that his "decline" is almost entirely position based and not so much system related.

Feel free to correct if I've gotten any numbers wrong.