Speculation: 2024-25 - Free Agency/Trade Thread

[Hamilton Bulldogs]

McTavish > Hughes

Hughes aint got that dog in him.


Game on the line and he jumps out of the way, allowing Sweden to end the game.

Give me this:


all day

 

[Duckesh]

Its really hard to compare a redraft. Teams and defensive partners really matter when it comes to production. The Ducks were not terrible the entire time Lindholm was here, but Lindholm getting drafted on a perenial trash team vs getting drafted into a team with a long playoff success record really can make a player's stats and how we think of them dramatically change. Lindholm on a trash team every year is obscure. Lindholm on a perennial contendor that is winning a couple championships might be winning Norris trophies in his prime.

 

[Mr Rogers]

I guess I don’t see it with Lindholm compared to others on here. I don’t come from him being the wrong choice, though some guys available were better, it’s more the assessment of what he’s been as a player. He’s not elite and has never been even close IMO. Even his one big year in 22-23 appears to have been an aberration.

 

[All Mighty]

I guess I don’t see it with Lindholm compared to others on here. I don’t come from him being the wrong choice, though some guys available were better, it’s more the assessment of what he’s been as a player. He’s not elite and has never been even close IMO. Even his one big year in 22-23 appears to have been an aberration.

He’s never been elite offensively, but he absolutely has a case to be considered elite defensively, which is very valuable. You could make an argument that he’s been a top 10 defenseman purely in terms of defensive ability (completely ignoring offensive ability) since he came into the league. He was the only defenseman we’ve had who could even remotely handle McDavid.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Using TOI to argue he can handle the rigors of an NHL season is like using TOI to argue that Fowler can handle the rigors of being an elite top pairing defenseman. McTavish’s play and production has dramatically fallen off both years come the second half of the season. Injuries cut both ways - it can be an excuse for a drop in the production, but also evidence that his body isn’t ready for the rigors of the amount of hockey he’s been tasked with.

I think it’s actually very normal for NHL players to be playing while not 100%, and there are quite a number of them saying it, they use phrases like “hurt but not injured”.

I'm using GP with TOI in response to "ill equipped for the length of the season"; not using TOI with respect to level of play. I'm comparing Mac to Mac so as to compare "apples to apples". Why would I compare Mac to Fowler, who has been in the league for 14 seasons? There wasn't a significant jump in TOI between the years, but there was a significant drop in being available in games played (GP).

Then I shared how Mac wasn't the only one who was affected with the new coaching as the rest of the team did suffer too by being overworked. Or did we forget Cronin doing full skates before a game and sometimes full skates before flying out that same day for a game? Again, the context here is we have a new coaching regime between the two seasons.

I am perplexed you glossed last year's injury concerns with "hurt, but not injured" when it was evident with Mac he got injured in game 20 and kept playing "hurt, but not injured" for the next four games. Mac never recovered from that "hurt, but not injured" situation. But you will use it against him saying he wasn't ready for a full season when it could be the org made his injury worse to where it affected the rest of his season. Hell, we witness him wearing a boot after recently getting injured and the very next day he's on the ice. We know he's not even 60% healthy. We all jokingly lament when Mac gets put back onto the ice after each injury he sits out.

I'm with you in saying Mac sucked last year. My stance is he sucked after he got injured in game 20. But the org kept playing him.

Case in point...

McTavish	2023-24
Game Set	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	.	PPG	PPA	PPP	.	ESG	ESA	ESP
1st Half	32​	11​	15​	26​	-14​		2​	4​	6​		9​	11​	20​
2nd Half	32​	8​	8​	16​	-9​		2​	0​	2​		6​	8​	14​

We see a drop off in production between the halves. Now, let's look at the splits from game 20.

McTavish	2023-24
Game Set	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	.	PPG	PPA	PPP	.	ESG	ESA	ESP
1st 20 games	20​	10​	11​	21​	-2​		2​	4​	6​		8​	7​	15​
After 20 GP	44​	9​	12​	21​	-21​		2​	0​	2​		7​	12​	19​

Maybe the org should have let Mac heal from a serious injury than to exacerbate it just to appease the "injured, but not hurt" crowd. Maybe Mac's hurt tolerance is much higher than others while also trying to impress the coaches and GM? I dunno, but I know Mac was never the same since game 20.

Injuries cut both ways - it can be an excuse for a drop in the production, but also evidence that his body isn’t ready for the rigors of the amount of hockey he’s been tasked with.

1. You cannot state what you said when Mac played 80 games in the year prior. In Mac's rookie season, he was playing 2LW for the first nine games of the season and 1C/2C for about 62 games to close out the season. In games 21-80, Mac's TOI was 16:02 as a 1C/2C. Again, that's why I used "GP and TOI" to show there wasn't a significant jump in TOI between the two seasons. I reiterate that we had two different head coaches between the two seasons. With the new coach forcing fire through a hose onto the team.

2. We cannot be definitive for the reason in the drops of production when we're selling off at the TDL or certain players get injured in the 2nd half like Rico in 2022-23. The loss of Rico does affect some aspects of the game such as the PP unit just for winning faceoffs alone.

McTavish	2022-23
Game Set	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	.	PPG	PPA	PPP	.	ESG	ESA	ESP
1st Half	40​	9​	17​	26​	-12​		4​	6​	10​		5​	11​	16​
2nd Half	40​	8​	9​	17​	-7​		3​	1​	4​		5​	8​	13​

The drop off in Mac's game for his rookie season wasn't at Even Strength (ES). It came at the expense of the PP unit. Are you really gonna blame rookie Mac for the drop in production due to the lack of PP production in the 2nd half of the season or the PP coach?

Asst coach Brown never could adapt nor evolve the PP, especially when teams started sticking a man on Mac to take him out of the PP equation. ICYMI, here was our pathetic 2022-23 PP unit broken down in into splits.

Ducks	2022-23
Game Set	Games	PPG	PPO	PP Eff
Total	82	36	229	15.7%
1 to 25	25	12	72	16.7%
26 to 49	24	11	69	15.9%
50 to 61	12	5	36	13.9%
62 to 82	21	8	52	15.4%

 

[Hockey Duckie]

He’s never been elite offensively, but he absolutely has a case to be considered elite defensively, which is very valuable. You could make an argument that he’s been a top 10 defenseman purely in terms of defensive ability (completely ignoring offensive ability) since he came into the league. He was the only defenseman we’ve had who could even remotely handle McDavid.

Yup.

Sports Net: How Anaheim’s Lindholm is changing the way we judge D-men​

An excellent case study is Anaheim’s Hampus Lindholm, who has emerged as not only the most important member of his own team’s defence, but also as one of the game’s premier players at his position. He has helped the Ducks tear through the Western Conference since Jan. 1 and cement themselves as the bona fide Stanley Cup contender fans and pundits had them pegged as prior to the season. Yet from looking at a collection of traditional statistics, you certainly wouldn’t know it.​

Sports Net: The modern day defenceman’s role as a neutral zone play driver

Even though more people have been slowly experiencing their come to Jesus moment about how ridiculously good Hampus Lindholm really is, when you look at how Norris Trophy votes are being doled out it’s clear that perception still hasn’t caught up to reality.​

​

It’ll be tough for him to get the type of national love he deserves registering only modest point totals in Anaheim, but he’s turned the act of using angles to beat forwards to the spot they’re trying to get to into a science. In fact, no one was a stingier defender of their own blue line than Lindholm during the 2017 post-season​

Lindholm's defense is taken for granted by lots of Ducks fans. Even Bruin fans are taking Lindholm for granted in his second season there. He's 2nd on the team in CF% (who have played more than one game) and one of two players with 50% or higher CF% (who have played more than one game), according to Hockey-Reference.

 

[Ducks DVM]

I'm using GP with TOI in response to "ill equipped for the length of the season"; not using TOI with respect to level of play. I'm comparing Mac to Mac so as to compare "apples to apples". Why would I compare Mac to Fowler, who has been in the league for 14 seasons? There wasn't a significant jump in TOI between the years, but there was a significant drop in being available in games played (GP).

Then I shared how Mac wasn't the only one who was affected with the new coaching as the rest of the team did suffer too by being overworked. Or did we forget Cronin doing full skates before a game and sometimes full skates before flying out that same day for a game? Again, the context here is we have a new coaching regime between the two seasons.

I am perplexed you glossed last year's injury concerns with "hurt, but not injured" when it was evident with Mac he got injured in game 20 and kept playing "hurt, but not injured" for the next four games. Mac never recovered from that "hurt, but not injured" situation. But you will use it against him saying he wasn't ready for a full season when it could be the org made his injury worse to where it affected the rest of his season. Hell, we witness him wearing a boot after recently getting injured and the very next day he's on the ice. We know he's not even 60% healthy. We all jokingly lament when Mac gets put back onto the ice after each injury he sits out.

I'm with you in saying Mac sucked last year. My stance is he sucked after he got injured in game 20. But the org kept playing him.

Case in point...

McTavish	2023-24
Game Set	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	.	PPG	PPA	PPP	.	ESG	ESA	ESP
1st Half	32​	11​	15​	26​	-14​		2​	4​	6​		9​	11​	20​
2nd Half	32​	8​	8​	16​	-9​		2​	0​	2​		6​	8​	14​

We see a drop off in production between the halves. Now, let's look at the splits from game 20.

McTavish	2023-24
Game Set	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	.	PPG	PPA	PPP	.	ESG	ESA	ESP
1st 20 games	20​	10​	11​	21​	-2​		2​	4​	6​		8​	7​	15​
After 20 GP	44​	9​	12​	21​	-21​		2​	0​	2​		7​	12​	19​

Maybe the org should have let Mac heal from a serious injury than to exacerbate it just to appease the "injured, but not hurt" crowd. Maybe Mac's hurt tolerance is much higher than others while also trying to impress the coaches and GM? I dunno, but I know Mac was never the same since game 20.



1. You cannot state what you said when Mac played 80 games in the year prior. In Mac's rookie season, he was playing 2LW for the first nine games of the season and 1C/2C for about 62 games to close out the season. In games 21-80, Mac's TOI was 16:02 as a 1C/2C. Again, that's why I used "GP and TOI" to show there wasn't a significant jump in TOI between the two seasons. I reiterate that we had two different head coaches between the two seasons. With the new coach forcing fire through a hose onto the team.

2. We cannot be definitive for the reason in the drops of production when we're selling off at the TDL or certain players get injured in the 2nd half like Rico in 2022-23. The loss of Rico does affect some aspects of the game such as the PP unit just for winning faceoffs alone.

McTavish	2022-23
Game Set	GP	G	A	Pts	+/-	.	PPG	PPA	PPP	.	ESG	ESA	ESP
1st Half	40​	9​	17​	26​	-12​		4​	6​	10​		5​	11​	16​
2nd Half	40​	8​	9​	17​	-7​		3​	1​	4​		5​	8​	13​

The drop off in Mac's game for his rookie season wasn't at Even Strength (ES). It came at the expense of the PP unit. Are you really gonna blame rookie Mac for the drop in production due to the lack of PP production in the 2nd half of the season or the PP coach?

Asst coach Brown never could adapt nor evolve the PP, especially when teams started sticking a man on Mac to take him out of the PP equation. ICYMI, here was our pathetic 2022-23 PP unit broken down in into splits.

Ducks	2022-23
Game Set	Games	PPG	PPO	PP Eff
Total	82	36	229	15.7%
1 to 25	25	12	72	16.7%
26 to 49	24	11	69	15.9%
50 to 61	12	5	36	13.9%
62 to 82	21	8	52	15.4%

We can definitively say that young players hit “the wall” in the second half of seasons. Literally every NHL coach and GM says som it’s not a debate. We then look at evidence of a player hitting “the wall”. Falloff in production - check. Falloff in overall play - check. Injuries - maybe, can’t really say, but that comment was to cut off the argument that his 2nd half production was only due to injuries.

McTavish has shown that “the wall” exists for him. The argument was that he hadn’t proven he can handle a full NHL season. That’s what “the wall” is. Your stat charts help prove it. Doesn’t mean it will happen this next season, but it does mean that he hadn’t proven he can do it to this point.

The Fowler mention was to point out that how much you’re on the ice has no actual firm correlation as to how well you’re actually doing on the ice.

Edit - players are “healthy” for about a month. After that, they are all varying degrees of injured, and they’re never 100% healthy until the next offseason. Contusions, sprains, strains, bone bruises, other soft tissue injuries, likely undetected brain trauma. You aren’t healed from strains and sprains in 7-14 days.

 

[70sSanO]

I think it is pointless to argue Lindholm in relation to his draft year. Lindholm's greatest attributes are his ability to anticipate and position himself. He is strong and uses that long stick to his advantage. His vision on understanding when a play is turning is outstanding.

That is probably his main flaw in that he has always been the responsible one in the room, especially as the Ducks got progressively worse. I tend to think that is his nature and the 22/23 season would be more typical if he were more offensive minded and not do the right thing to make up for his teammates.

We lost the trade with Boston. The gyrations necessary to turn the 58th pick into Solberg to justify the Lindholm trade is just too far removed. It was the Henrique trade that really made it possible.

But one thing I have learned is not to get emotionally attached to any player. I might root for them after they leave, but I move on.

John

 

[Hockey Duckie]

We can definitively say that young players hit “the wall” in the second half of seasons. Literally every NHL coach and GM says som it’s not a debate. We then look at evidence of a player hitting “the wall”. Falloff in production - check. Falloff in overall play - check. Injuries - maybe, can’t really say, but that comment was to cut off the argument that his 2nd half production was only due to injuries.

McTavish has shown that “the wall” exists for him. The argument was that he hadn’t proven he can handle a full NHL season. That’s what “the wall” is. Your stat charts help prove it. Doesn’t mean it will happen this next season, but it does mean that he hadn’t proven he can do it to this point.

The Fowler mention was to point out that how much you’re on the ice has no actual firm correlation as to how well you’re actually doing on the ice.

Mac did play 80 games in his rookie season. Mac's ES play didn't drop off drastically to be deemed "hitting a wall". The wall wasn't there in his rookie season, in fact his defensive play got a little better, which counters hitting a wall. I can't hold the PP production against him b/c he's not in charge of designing plays.

Mac didn't hit a wall in his 2nd season. He hit the injury bug. That's like saying a certain someone lost million of jobs b/c the stats show it, but not mention COVID forced jobs to shutter during that time.

The Fowler mention is pointless b/c the conversation wasn't about the quality of play, but the ability to play the length of the season.

Mac so far has seemed ill-equipped for the length of an NHL season.

Static is saying Mac isn't built to last a whole NHL season.

Again, I don't comprehend thinking I'm trying to identify quality (hitting a wall) when I'm refuting quantity (as in games played).

Please, re-read what Static wrote. And then re-read all my posts where I'm always citing GP and TOI to reflect "the length of an NHL season" which is QUANTITY not QUALITY of their play.

I'm done with this conversation b/c you keep harping thinking QUALITY and I was responding to the QUANTITY, which is proven by me re-quoting Static.

 

[Static]

Let's just relax and I'll clarify what I meant: I don't think mctavish has been physically ready to play effectively for a full NHL season.

I did not say this derogatorily.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Mac did play 80 games in his rookie season. Mac's ES play didn't drop off drastically to be deemed "hitting a wall". The wall wasn't there in his rookie season, in fact his defensive play got a little better, which counters hitting a wall. I can't hold the PP production against him b/c he's not in charge of designing plays.

Mac didn't hit a wall in his 2nd season. He hit the injury bug. That's like saying a certain someone lost million of jobs b/c the stats show it, but not mention COVID forced jobs to shutter during that time.

The Fowler mention is pointless b/c the conversation wasn't about the quality of play, but the ability to play the length of the season.



Static is saying Mac isn't built to last a whole NHL season.

Again, I don't comprehend thinking I'm trying to identify quality (hitting a wall) when I'm refuting quantity (as in games played).

Please, re-read what Static wrote. And then re-read all my posts where I'm always citing GP and TOI to reflect "the length of an NHL season" which is QUANTITY not QUALITY of their play.

I'm done with this conversation b/c you keep harping thinking QUALITY and I was responding to the QUANTITY, which is proven by me re-quoting Static.

1 - relax.
2 - physically wearing down, the wall, makes play worse, increases injury chances, lengthens recovery times for injuries, decreases production, and causes more mental mistakes.
3 - quantity of play on the ice isn’t in question. Yes. He’s played those minutes.
4 - you are finding ways to explain away all of this other than him being a young player who’s not ready for those minutes over that many games, when that’s the most likely explanation for all of these things. That’s your right. It’s my right to point out that you are not providing any incontrovertible proof for your position, because you don’t know what his injuries were, what their severity was, or have any insider information whatsoever into his physical, mental, or emotional status.
5 - this is not a personal attack on McTavish. This is my opinion on all young players, and you should know that by now.

 

[Leonardo87]

It’s too early in the summer for this kinda banter. Let’s at least wait till end of Aug.

 

[Ducks DVM]

It’s too early in the summer for this kinda banter. Let’s at least wait till end of Aug.

How many 1sts do you think we could get outta NYR for Zegras?

 

[Leonardo87]

How many 1sts do you think we could get outta NYR for Zegras?

42

 

[Gliff]

How many 1sts do you think we could get outta NYR for Zegras?

1 2nd if we are lucky.

 

[Dirk316]

Offensive 1 dimensional dman are easy to aquire but top line power forwards like Tkachuk, Kane, Wilson etc are hard to find and Verbeek despite having multiple pathetic losing seasons has yet to draft one

 

[Leonardo87]

1 2nd if we are lucky.

Zegras for Tuba who says no. Lol.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Zegras for Tuba who says no. Lol.

Verbeek has no need for a tuba. A cornet at best, preferably a piccolo.

 

[Terry Yake]

Offensive 1 dimensional dman are easy to aquire but top line power forwards like Tkachuk, Kane, Wilson etc are hard to find and Verbeek despite having multiple pathetic losing seasons has yet to draft one

i feel like after the ritchie debacle, we won't see the ducks use a first rounder on a power forward type

at least until madden is gone. mctavish is probably the closest you'll get

 

[Dirk316]

i feel like after the ritchie debacle, we won't see the ducks use a first rounder on a power forward type

at least until madden is gone. mctavish is probably the closest you'll get

1 Bad example but Getzlaf, Perry and Ryan were successful so 3/4 is pretty good. Comtois I don't think was considered a true power forward. Ritchie had his moments with Kase I wonder why they didn't stick with that pair

 

[Vipers31]

Offensive 1 dimensional dman are easy to aquire but top line power forwards like Tkachuk, Kane, Wilson etc are hard to find and Verbeek despite having multiple pathetic losing seasons has yet to draft one

In the past couple drafts, who do you believe to fit such a profile?

 

[GreatBear]

1 Bad example but Getzlaf, Perry and Ryan were successful so 3/4 is pretty good. Comtois I don't think was considered a true power forward. Ritchie had his moments with Kase I wonder why they didn't stick with that pair

When I think of Ritchie I am reminded of the Scarecrow from the Wizard of Oz, singing, "If I only had a Brain."

 

[ScarTroy]

In the past couple drafts, who do you believe to fit such a profile?

He wanted Fantilli and Lindstrom. Best thing about that is we’ll get to see who is better between a duo of them two vs Carlsson and Sennecke.

 

[70sSanO]

Verbeek has no need for a tuba. A cornet at best, preferably a piccolo.

I always thought of Pat as an accordion guy



John

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Ok, I just have to drop some Weird Al in here…