2024-25 Calder Race

[FlyguyOX]

I should hope so, he's playing on a much better defensive team

Celebrini scoring at a higher rate while playing a more difficult position is certainly a relevant argument.

Yes agree with more difficult position.

But their RAPM xGA/60 is the same, Michkov has better xG differential, better actual Goals differential.

Michkov is actually scoring at a higher rate. All situations 3.27 pts/60 compared to 3.05/60 for celebrini.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Yes agree with more difficult position.

But their RAPM xGA/60 is the same,

And that's more impressive from a rookie center vs rookie winger

Michkov has better xG differential, better actual Goals differential.

He plays on a much better team, this is not relevant.

Michkov is actually scoring at a higher rate. All situations 3.27 pts/60 compared to 3.05/60 for celebrini.

Celebrini has a higher pts/gp and 5v5 p/60. These are legitimate arguments for why he's the better rookie.

All situations p/60 isn't really as relevant comparison as they have different deployments.

But Michkov has been great on the PP and in OT.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Yes agree with more difficult position.

But their RAPM xGA/60 is the same, Michkov has better xG differential, better actual Goals differential.

Michkov is actually scoring at a higher rate. All situations 3.27 pts/60 compared to 3.05/60 for celebrini.

Celebrini
1 point per game

Michkov
0.93 points per game

 

[coooldude]

Yes agree with more difficult position.

But their RAPM xGA/60 is the same, Michkov has better xG differential, better actual Goals differential.

Michkov is actually scoring at a higher rate. All situations 3.27 pts/60 compared to 3.05/60 for celebrini.

I think it's crystalizing and these numbers back it up:

• If their RAPM xGA/60 is the same, and Celebrini plays the more difficult position, then they are equal defensively at worst and easier to argue, with the current sample size, that Celebrini is a bit better defensively.
• Michkov has 0.22p/60 higher in all situations, and he's been incredibly effective on the PP. this means Celebrini is highly effective at 5v5 or else he wouldn't be near Michkov's lofty figures.

If the trends continue, then Michkov will continue to get better and better showing off his elite nose for goal and creativity and control of the game, ending close to a PPG or higher if he really turns it on. Celebrini will end close to a PPG having shown a high level of promise as the NHLs youngest player holding his own as an effective 2 way center. The voters will decide which one is more deserving.

And yes, Hutson may get some 1st place votes as well, but I would be surprised if he overtakes either of the top two.

 

[Fraser28]

Present your case

The number of posts in this thread…

 

[SoundAndFury]

I stand by the fact he'll need to lead the habs D in ice time and also be on PK1 to win the calder.

Don't know why PK would be a requirement at all. Didn't stop Karlsson from winning his Norrisis. Those players just aren't meant to do that if they don't have to.

 

[FlyguyOX]

And that's more impressive from a rookie center vs rookie winger

He plays on a much better team, this is not relevant.

Celebrini has a higher pts/gp and 5v5 p/60. These are legitimate arguments for why he's the better rookie.

All situations p/60 isn't really as relevant comparison as they have different deployments.

But Michkov has been great on the PP and in OT.

"Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) is a method for evaluating skater performance that seeks to improve on the known issues with on-ice metrics (such as raw on-ice Corsi For %, etc.). Raw on-ice skater ratings are inherently impacted by the teammates a player plays with, the opponents they play against, a player’s percentage of zone starts in the offensive or defensive zone, back to back games, etc. There are many aspects of the game that players have no control over. The goal of RAPM is to control for these aspects and provide a better measure of a player’s offensive or defensive ability.

RAPM seeks to account for all these factors by using a statistical technique called linear regression (specifically, a regularized linear regression called ridge regression). This allows us to control for all teammates, opponents, score state, zone starts, etc. at the same time further increasing the accuracy of a specific player’s rating. The method can be used at various strength states and for various metrics. On Evolving-Hockey, we provide 2 strength states (EV & PP/SH) with 3 separate metrics (Goals, Expected Goals, and Corsi). Each regression is run for each season and players are separated by team (traded players are split into multiple versions of themselves – one version for each team they played for in each season)."

RAPM accounts for many of these variables you're mentioning.

Wait, you said Celebrini is scoring at a higher pace and I proved you wrong. Now PP points don't count? All goals count the same.

 

[FlyguyOX]

I think it's crystalizing and these numbers back it up:

• If their RAPM xGA/60 is the same, and Celebrini plays the more difficult position, then they are equal defensively at worst and easier to argue, with the current sample size, that Celebrini is a bit better defensively.
• Michkov has 0.22p/60 higher in all situations, and he's been incredibly effective on the PP. this means Celebrini is highly effective at 5v5 or else he wouldn't be near Michkov's lofty figures.

If the trends continue, then Michkov will continue to get better and better showing off his elite nose for goal and creativity and control of the game, ending close to a PPG or higher if he really turns it on. Celebrini will end close to a PPG having shown a high level of promise as the NHLs youngest player holding his own as an effective 2 way center. The voters will decide which one is more deserving.

And yes, Hutson may get some 1st place votes as well, but I would be surprised if he overtakes either of the top two.

RAPM says Michkov is more effective 5v5 vs Celebrini. People seem to be falling into the "powerplay merchant" arguments again. Michkov has elevated the leagues worst PP for years running to merely 26th now, under the SJS powerplay that ranks 21st.

 

[Jts4thgoal]

Fancy stats are lame, Celebrini is better.

 

[coooldude]

RAPM says Michkov is more effective 5v5 vs Celebrini. People seem to be falling into the "powerplay merchant" arguments again. Michkov has elevated the leagues worst PP for years running to merely 26th now, under the SJS powerplay that ranks 21st.

View attachment 947513

I was just quoting your own numbers. xGA/60 is the same.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

"Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM) is a method for evaluating skater performance that seeks to improve on the known issues with on-ice metrics (such as raw on-ice Corsi For %, etc.). Raw on-ice skater ratings are inherently impacted by the teammates a player plays with, the opponents they play against, a player’s percentage of zone starts in the offensive or defensive zone, back to back games, etc. There are many aspects of the game that players have no control over. The goal of RAPM is to control for these aspects and provide a better measure of a player’s offensive or defensive ability.

RAPM seeks to account for all these factors by using a statistical technique called linear regression (specifically, a regularized linear regression called ridge regression). This allows us to control for all teammates, opponents, score state, zone starts, etc. at the same time further increasing the accuracy of a specific player’s rating. The method can be used at various strength states and for various metrics. On Evolving-Hockey, we provide 2 strength states (EV & PP/SH) with 3 separate metrics (Goals, Expected Goals, and Corsi). Each regression is run for each season and players are separated by team (traded players are split into multiple versions of themselves – one version for each team they played for in each season)."

RAPM accounts for many of these variables you're mentioning.

Wait, you said Celebrini is scoring at a higher pace and I proved you wrong. Now PP points don't count? All goals count the same.

My multi-year RAPM, which treats the 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 season as one full season, paints a slightly different picture.

I'd lean towards the multi-year RAPM over a single-year at this early stage because the the 2023-2024 season contains a lot of information about the teammates

However, in general, I would not pay too much mind to any RAPM in comparing two players with <30 games played. And I would certainly not use a difference as small as 0.11 Vs. 0.068 xGPM/60 to deduce one player has been definitively "better" as this isn't a significant difference at all within the scope of this metrics.

Celebrini's quantifiable dominance in puck battles and general defensive involvement should not just be brushed aside because of RAPM at this stage of the season. The most confident statement I would make from RAPM at this point would just be "hey, looks like these kids are solid offensively and not doing horrible defensively" which is very impressive for both of them to be doing as teenagers.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

The top 3 seems locked in with Celebrini, Hutson, and Michkov

 

[Mattb124]

Cerebral plays like this one?



jk

He needs to make Celebrinal plays, not plays like that one.

 

[dendazen]

He needs to make Celebrinal plays, not plays like that one.

I think he thought it was a pass, he didn't see where the goal post was situated they way he was standing, it was a fast play, he just wanted to redirect the puck and make sure it goes in. It happens.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Fancy stats are lame, Celebrini is better.

I think so too , for both of your points.

Both are incredible and we are lucky to have 18-20 year olds like this in the league

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

The top 3 seems locked in with Celebrini, Hutson, and Michkov

It appears that way, this is a high end rookie class to be sure. If they continue at their current paces, I think all 3 would have been the favorites to win the Calder over Bedard (though I thought Faber should have beaten out Bedard too, so what do I know).

I think Stankoven is the most likely skater to crash into the top 3. He's had some pretty poor puck luck thus far, and is due for some better shooting luck. He actually leads all rookies in SOG, but is only shooting 5% (which should definitely go up). He only has 4 vs 8.5 ixG. I wouldn't be shocked to see him finish with 20-25 goals and 50-55 points. Probably not enough to break into the top 3 unless someone falls off drastically or gets injured.

 

[dendazen]

It appears that way, this is a high end rookie class to be sure. If they continue at their current paces, I think all 3 would have been the favorites to win the Calder over Bedard (though I thought Faber should have beaten out Bedard too, so what do I know).

I think Stankoven is the most likely skater to crash into the top 3. He's had some pretty poor puck luck thus far, and is due for some better shooting luck. He actually leads all rookies in SOG, but is only shooting 5% (which should definitely go up). He only has 4 vs 8.5 ixG. I wouldn't be shocked to see him finish with 20-25 goals and 50-55 points. Probably not enough to break into the top 3 unless someone falls off drastically or gets injured.


You don't think a guy with Michkov's IQ knew the goalie was out of the net? lol.

The best you can say is that he was initially thinking it was going wide and tried to redirect it back towards the net.

Wasn't that exactly what I said? Sorry, english is not my first language.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Wasn't that exactly what I said? Sorry, english is not my first language.

Sorry I somehow misread goal post as goalie, that is my mistake!

 

[Daniels45]

I think Lane Hutson has a legitimate chance at the Calder this year if he stays healthy and continues at the same pace.

 

[WillTheThrill]

Let's just enjoy having two future elite super star forwards (seems very likely to me) having a great battle.
When was the last time, we had two great rookie forwards (who turned out to become elite forwards) like this? Malkin and Kopitar?

McDavid vs. Panarin does not count to me, because one was hurt for to many games and the other one was way older.

Real ones remember the Matthews vs Laine calder threads

 

[Mattb124]

Why are the Sharks bottom 4? Shouldn't Celebrini be making his teammates better?

Last year PHI finished in 21st place with a .530 point % and this year they are in 21st place with .516 point % (14 bp decline YoY).

The Sharks were finished in 32nd place last year with a .287 p% and this year are in 28th place with a .397 p% (110 bp increase YoY).

Following your logic, that would suggest Celebrini is making his teammates significantly better while Michkov is making his teammates marginally worse.

 

[kmart]

Following your logic, that would suggest Celebrini is making his teammates significantly better while Michkov is making his teammates marginally worse.

michkov is also having the disadvantage of being coached by tortorella

 

[Mattb124]

michkov is also having the disadvantage of being coached by tortorella

Does he frequently have to play on a line with Barclay Goodrow?

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Hate to say it but despite the habs record and standings Lane is also playing with a much better supporting cast than Mich or Celibrini , Lane plays with some scrubs for sure at 5 on 5 and on the PP to start the year but now he's getting first unit PP time and habs definitely have the best PP out of the 3.

But that's just if we are talking points , of course Lane is also playing Defence out there which is never easy to compare to fwds

 

[Ezpz]

Hate to say it but despite the habs record and standings Lane is also playing with a much better supporting cast than Mich or Celibrini , Lane plays with some scrubs for sure at 5 on 5 and on the PP to start the year but now he's getting first unit PP time and habs definitely have the best PP out of the 3.

But that's just if we are talking points , of course Lane is also playing Defence out there which is never easy to compare to fwds

Lane is also pacing to have one of the highest scoring rookie dman seasons in history. Ahead of many past Norris winners. And that's with his numbers being slightly lower because of not starting on pp1. Right now he's pacing to finish just ahead of Lidstrom.