2024-25 Calder Race

[Beukeboom]

Wait, you said Celebrini is scoring at a higher pace and I proved you wrong. Now PP points don't count? All goals count the same.

Only advanced stats can show us plebs why a guy having a lower PPG (Michkov) actually scores at a higher pace than the other (Celebrini)...

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Lane is also pacing to have one of the highest scoring rookie dman seasons in history. Ahead of many past Norris winners. And that's with his numbers being slightly lower because of not starting on pp1. Right now he's pacing to finish just ahead of Lidstrom.

Saying he's scoring at a higher rate than many past Norris winners (in a very high scoring era, no less) is like saying Michkov is scoring at a rate higher than many past Selke winners. Anybody who won the Norris scoring at a rate below Hutson's won it because they were perceived to be elite defensively; something nobody is even pretending Hutson is.

 

[NikolaTesla]

Yes agree with more difficult position.

But their RAPM xGA/60 is the same, Michkov has better xG differential, better actual Goals differential.

Michkov is actually scoring at a higher rate. All situations 3.27 pts/60 compared to 3.05/60 for celebrini.

xGA/xGF is only relevant when comparing players from the same team on the same line facing the same quality of opposition. Other than that, theyre team statistics and sucks at evaluating individual players unless you can have the same parameters (see my first sentence).

 

[Ezpz]

Saying he's scoring at a higher rate than many past Norris winners (in a very high scoring era, no less) is like saying Michkov is scoring at a rate higher than many past Selke winners. Anybody who won the Norris scoring at a rate below Hutson's won it because they were perceived to be elite defensively; something nobody is even pretending Hutson is.

The people who finished ahead of Lane's current pace also played in an even higher scoring era. The fact is lane would be pacing for second or third all time if he started on pp1 while Michkov is pacing for 50th or so while being easily the worst defensive forward in the league.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Only advanced stats can show us plebs why a guy having a lower PPG (Michkov) actually scores at a higher pace than the other (Celebrini)...

Celebrini advocates are the ones bringing context into the discussion. If you're discussing a scoring pace/rate then you must account for how often the player plays.

xGA/xGF is only relevant when comparing players from the same team on the same line facing the same quality of opposition. Other than that, theyre team statistics and sucks at evaluating individual players unless you can have the same parameters (see my first sentence).

RAPM.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

The people who finished ahead of Lane's current pace also played in an even higher scoring era. The fact is lane would be pacing for second or third all time if he started on pp1 while Michkov is pacing for 50th or so while being easily the worst defensive forward in the league.

The last 3 Norris winners alone scored 86, 101, and 92 points. Are you saying Hutson would be pacing for more than 86 points if he started on PP1, or did you mix up the Norris Trophy and the Calder?

 

[Ezpz]

The last 3 Norris winners alone scored 86, 101, and 92 points. Are you saying Hutson would be pacing for more than 86 points if he started on PP1, or did you mix up the Norris Trophy and the Calder?

I'm saying that he is outpacing guys who are currently in the top 10 rookie dman seasons in history like Lidstrom and Chelios. He's not far off passing Makar and Hughes' rookie season paces as well.

 

[wetcoast]

Lane Hutson is right there with those 2 - I legitimately have it as a dead even draw between the 3 atm.

You might but the actual voters won't.

 

[wetcoast]

Let's just enjoy having two future elite super star forwards (seems very likely to me) having a great battle.
When was the last time, we had two great rookie forwards (who turned out to become elite forwards) like this? Malkin and Kopitar?

McDavid vs. Panarin does not count to me, because one was hurt for to many games and the other one was way older.

Man now you have done it, we are going to have our 10000th who is better thread Malkin or Kopitar....well not really.

I won't point out the obvious answer here.

 

[Guy Larose]

You might but the actual voters won't.

What exactly did they say when you asked them? We're curious.

 

[Sparty]

Lane is also pacing to have one of the highest scoring rookie dman seasons in history. Ahead of many past Norris winners. And that's with his numbers being slightly lower because of not starting on pp1. Right now he's pacing to finish just ahead of Lidstrom.

He's on pace for three goals this year. Am I taking crazy pills in this thread or wtf?

 

[Star Platinum]

Celebrini advocates are the ones bringing context into the discussion. If you're discussing a scoring pace/rate then you must account for how often the player plays.


RAPM.

Rage Against Philly's Machine

Puck you, I won't vote how you tell me

 

[SoundAndFury]

There is still a period left, but Michkov has been pointless in the last four games and -6 in the last three games. That precious +/- he has hanging over Celebrini is slipping away

 

[wetcoast]

What exactly did they say when you asked them? We're curious.

It's a secret if I told you I'd have to.....you know.

 

[SjMilhouse]

There is still a period left, but Michkov has been pointless in the last four games and -6 in the last three games. That precious +/- he has hanging over Celebrini is slipping away

no but you see, you are missing the forest through the trees. None of these stats matter this week

 

[wetcoast]

I'm saying that he is outpacing guys who are currently in the top 10 rookie dman seasons in history like Lidstrom and Chelios. He's not far off passing Makar and Hughes' rookie season paces as well.

The thing is that it's all relative to the season they are in.

Lidstrom finished 9th overall in Dman scoring and was excellent defensively while Hutson is currently 15th in Dman scoring and.....

The Calder is a 2 man race just like last year and then the field.

 

[Fraser28]

Rough stretch for Michkov. In the last 4 games: 0 points and -8. Hopefully he can work through it soon.

 

[Barrie22]

How much longer before michkov earns himself another trip to the press box.

 

[MyNameIsTaken]

Hey now, let’s not start implying a bad +/- indicates broader poor defensive results.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Not really even close between Michkov and Celebrini. I love Michkov and think he could be the next Kucherov but Celebrini is a two way C who has a higher ppg…

 

[dmcccdmn]

How would you rate this move, and show me the equivalence of this play in other non-hockey sports.

 

[DJB]

 

[matt trick]

Great Celebrini Breakdown: Hockey PDOcast Film Room

Last comment was they need to do a d-man, but the probelm (along with more minutes to review) is defenseman aren't as involved. Seems like a Hutson one could be good. I'd also love to see them do a deep dive in Michkov and Stankhoven.

These clips do an awesome job of the many things Celebrini does defensively (and in converting defense to offense).

I'm completely biased, but that's about the most fun breakdown I've seen of a player.

 

[Star Platinum]

Yes agree with more difficult position.

But their RAPM xGA/60 is the same, Michkov has better xG differential, better actual Goals differential.

Michkov is actually scoring at a higher rate. All situations 3.27 pts/60 compared to 3.05/60 for celebrini.

 

[SoundAndFury]

How would you rate this move, and show me the equivalence of this play in other non-hockey sports.

I rate it as excellent. This is something I thought was very similar: