It is basically mandated in the MoU that it is a 5% increase as long as revenues are fine (and they are currently... which is the critical number for the 25-26 cap based on the calculations). So 88m to ~92m for 25-26 Then we have the CBA risk in 2026. Where negotiations could go any which way and we really don't know until that negotiation is cleared. Given the financial health of the league being pretty good, as long as the Canadian TV deal doesn't go tits up or the RSO situation spiral in the next year... odds are it will increase somewhere in the 2-6% range.
The contending part is going to be over shortly anyway, even the wildly optimistic have to admit that. Rants' deal is as much about PR and fanfare as it is competing. The Avs simply can't take the hit of Rantanen walking... on the ice, or off.