Personally I'd be trying to figure out a way to snag Nikishin rather than the picks.
That said, it's much more likely Carolina moves the picks than a 23 year old Nikishin (under KHL contract until the end of the 2025-26 Russian season - speculated to be coming over after the KHL season ends this spring). Nikishin won the KHL MVP and best dman award last year and is averaging 25 mins a night this year since returning from injury per Dobber prospects.
Everything I find online has Nikishin's contract ending this season, which is why he would be able to join the NHL in the spring of 2025.
Nikishin is a left shot dman, which doesn't help our deficit of RHD prospects - but I can see him and Broberg anchoring our 1/2 LD spots for the next decade+ and he should be stepping into the NHL inside the next 2 years while being an impact player in under 4 years. 6'4, mobile and physical with a pretty damn impressive offensive record for 2022-23 (65gp 11-44-55p at 21) and 2023-24 (67gp 17-39-56p at 22).
I know it's been discussed before, but I think Nikishin is about the best fit we could ask for in terms of meshing with our next core and timeline - there's potential he is that 1D we're looking for.
Like you, I don't care about LHD or RHD when talking about him. He has the upside to make handedness and our comparative organizational depth in the prospect pool meaningless. He has damn near every tool in the toolbox and the only real question mark is whether he has the IQ/commitment to adapt his game to North American ice and speed.
The potential long term "problem" of a Nikishin/Broberg top 4 blocking Lindstein would be an absolutely marvelous best-case scenario. I expect Parayko to be capable to play quality top 4 minutes alongside one of those guys for several years (let's call it the J-Bo role) and suddenly you're talking about being just a competent RHD away form a potentially elite blueline.
By 2026/27, this lineup would have the legitimate potential to be one of the league's best:
Nikishin (age 25 season)-Parayko (age 33 season)
Broberg (age 25 season)-Faulk (age 34 season)/????
Lindstein (rookie year)-????/Faulk
Then Faulk comes off the books and you start filling in the gaps with Jiricek and outside hires with an eye to eventually take the minutes Parayko becomes less capable of playing. Swap the pairs around how you like, but that is the backbone of a great young D group
I would be shocked if Carolina would even entertain an offer like that, don’t see them moving Nikishin at all let alone as part of a package like that for Binnington and Leddy
Nikishin is a great asset for them, but he is going to get very expensive very quickly if he is who people think he is. If he signs an ELC in the spring to burn 2024/25, he will be an RFA with arbitration rights following the 2025/26 season. I'd also wager that Russia is willing to pay a lot of under-the-table money to lure him back to the KHL, which further increases his leverage. There is very real potential that whoever holds his rights is put in a position to overpay for potential (or small sample size) to avoid losing him quickly.
Maybe Carolina is willing to give him that bag and take on that risk. But they are arguably the most inflexible team in the league on their willingness to budge on contracts and they have $16M committed to 4 D men for 2026/27.
I do see a scenario where the realities of Nikishin's potential leverage in rapidly approaching contract negotiations encourages them to use Nikishin as a trade chip to make a big push for the Cup this season by acquiring non-rentals who can also help them beyond this season. I think it is more likely that they are comfortable with the risks in keeping him, but as much as I love the player I do think that contractual realities are a reason for concern beyond simply "he's Russian."
Kaprizov used his leverage as a late-arriving KHL guy to get $9M AAV on just a 5 year deal in a fully flat cap after 51 points in 55 career NHL games. Nikishin should be trying to do the same thing if he shines early in his NHL career. The contractual reality of the player is that you better be willing to give him $10M+ on a non-max term deal if he is a Calder-level player in 2025/26.
If Carolina views Binner as a Cup-caliber guy, then I think that Binner (50% retention) and Saad (50% retention) is a good starting point for negotiations in a potential Nikishin deal. We would need to add and that conversation very well might morph into a discussion about including Neighbours instead of Saad. But I think that is a good starting point where we are filling their biggest 2 immediate needs for a combined $5.25M against the cap. Neither is a rental and we could easily take back Freddy's $3.4M deal to give them the needed cap wiggle room this year.