Has there been any more smoke on Dobson from NYI? What are the chances DA makes a big splash to help us down the stretch with Colt being out?
No smoke, but a Dobson acquisition would certainly make sense from our perspective. I'm still incredibly nervous about how much a potential extension could blow up in our faces and/or the possibility that he has his heart set to go UFA in the summer of 2026. He's obviously not a rental, but he also might not be here long term.
From our perspective he makes sense as a deadline add and for the future. His strengths don't offer a replacement for Parayko's skillset in the short term. But he would still very much improve the blue line as it exists today and his strengths do fit with our overall needs. He gives us a better chance of continuing this playoff push (and hopefully getting Parayko back for round 1 if we get there) and then he could be a long-term top 4 RHD that QBs our top PP unit. From the Isles standpoint, they just sold Nelson for pure futures, so I see some merit to the notion that they have accepted a retool/rebuild instead of demanding pure hockey returns.
I'd be pretty damn interested if the Isles are looking to deal him for a haul of pure futures.
I think this year's 1st (top-whatever protected) and Jiricek makes sense as the core for such a deal. Those are 2 pieces that I view as expendable for a non-rental acquisition of Dobson's profile, but they both have real value as assets. That 1st rounder would likely be in the 10-20 range. I think our 1st is clearly more desirable than the 2025 1sts held by other likely buyers and I'd wager it is more desireable than getting a future 1st. The 1st they got for Nelson is either a 2026 or a 2027, so I think it would make sense for them to prioritize getting a (likely) mid-2025 1st (that could potentially become a 2026) instead of getting another 1st in a future draft. Jiricek is a good fit for them too. He is the same position/handedness of Dobson and they currently don't have a RHD prospect of note in their pool. A quality RHD prospect is a very tangible need for them organizationally and while Jiricek's value has likely decreased since the draft, I'd wager that he is still viewed as a 1st round talent with high upside. He is a longer-term project, but his potential NHL timeline is probably no further away than a 2026 1st rounder.
If I were the Isles, I'd value the Blues 2025 1st and Jiricek more highly than a 2025 1st and a future 1st round pick from any team currently sitting ahead of us in the standings. Don't get me wrong, I assume we'd have to add to those two. They shouldn't be moving him for just two assets that are 'worth a 1st.' I'm not sure how large the add would need to be, but I think that building a package around those two assets make a lot of sense for both teams.
I'd be thrilled if Army were offering our 2025 1st, Jiricek, and Dean for Dobson. Maybe throw in Texier to get his cap off the books since we would have to give Dobson a large raise. I doubt that gets it done, but that is a good chunk of value for a guy who might be a UFA in 16 months. I think the value offered there is at least enough to demonstrate that we are serious and keep communication open about swapping/adding pieces to make a deal work.
