2024-2025 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread.

[BlueDream]

Those Mike Reilly and Vince Dunn numbers are so absurd they sound made up. That’s insane.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

A lot of values for defensemen are weird for his model.
Here are some that raise my eyebrow.


Sergechev has a market Value of 1.3mil
Jake McCabe has a Value of 7.1mil
Matt Roy has a Value 9.7mil

 

[Reality Czech]

To put it in pragmatic perspective, Dunn is getting paid almost 1 MIL more than Parayko this year.

I'd rather have Parayko than Dunn. Seems like everyone is infatuated with defensemen who put up points and actually playing defense is secondary. Dom's model seems more suited for fantasy hockey than real hockey.

 

[Majorityof1]

I'd rather have Parayko than Dunn. Seems like everyone is infatuated with defensemen who put up points and actually playing defense is secondary. Dom's model seems more suited for fantasy hockey than real hockey.

I'd rather have both. You need both. Ideally you want your best D to do both. But if you cannot get it, there is a reason Dunn and Larsson are stapled at the hip at 5v5.

 

[STL fan in MN]

A lot of values for defensemen are weird for his model.
Here are some that raise my eyebrow.


Sergechev has a market Value of 1.3mil
Jake McCabe has a Value of 7.1mil
Matt Roy has a Value 9.7mil

If your model spits out results like this then you should probably tweak the model than publish the results…

 

[Reality Czech]

Was just listening to Hockey Sense with Strickland from a couple weeks ago when he interviewed Mathieu Joseph. Was a cool interview overall but I thought I'd pass this little tidbit along. When asked which Blues player he was looking forward to playing with, he mentioned how hard Leddy is to play against and how impressive his skating ability is. Not the answer I was expecting but clearly Leddy is respected by at least some of his peers.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I'll never understand Leddy's negative reputation that some seem to have of him.

 

[Reality Czech]

I'll never understand Leddy's negative reputation that some seem to have of him.

Just goes to show that even "average" NHLers are extremely skilled. I'll admit I was underwhelmed when we acquired him based on my limited knowledge, but he's been so much better than I expected. Such a solid pro.

 

[simon IC]

Just goes to show that even "average" NHLers are extremely skilled. I'll admit I was underwhelmed when we acquired him based on my limited knowledge, but he's been so much better than I expected. Such a solid pro.

I too was initially disappointed when I first heard about the Leddy acquisition. I am so happy I was wrong.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I remember when Strickland first mentioned Leddy as an option next to Parayko at that deadline and we were all pretty negative towards it. Part of me was optimistic because of his skating and puck-moving ability, and I think that type of player next to Parayko would really help him compared to guys like Mikkola or Scandella, but Leddy never faced the extreme deployment that he'd get next to Parayko. He exceeded my expectations in his current deployment.

Take out the disaster in Detroit and whatever happened in 17/18, and he's always been a solid player.

 

[Celtic Note]

I agree with most of what you said. I disagree with generalizing and projecting emotion onto people for pointing out the flaws in the model. That's strange to me.

Some people point are the flaws as a matter of fact. Others absolutely get bent out of shape. I am not saying all people critiquing the model are getting bent out of shape.

 

[Mike Liut]

I'll never understand Leddy's negative reputation that some seem to have of him.

Leddy is a quality partner for Parayko, but he’s not a true 1LD that we need to help this team go to the next level. Hopefully Broberg will be that player in another year, or we can trade for one.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Some people point are the flaws as a matter of fact. Others absolutely get bent out of shape. I am not saying all people critiquing the model are getting bent out of shape.

I don’t mind the model being flawed, i f it were presented with a little more humility, and less of the snarky comments about Blues fans. If youre going to present things like WE’RE the dummies for questioning the model, you deserve the flack.

I get that capturing statistics to reflect good defensive play is harder than counting shots and goals. There are probably some in-game events that could reflect impact better, but they’re not the available stats he can plug into a model. It would be cool to get to see the inner workings of some of the better proprietary analytics the clubs use.

 

[bleedblue1223]

And my main issue, the model might be pretty good for projected overall team results, I think it's reasonably close enough, and I don't follow different models enough to know where his would stack up against others. His issue is with individual assessments. When looking at overall team assessments, some of the issues on the individual level can be smoothed out and make less of an issue, but when you are going to do articles on the worst contracts in the league or best contracts in the league, those individual evaluations have to be dialed in, and his are not.

Now, he did start to make adjustments, Parayko being a specific player that he mentioned fueling that need, but they still aren't dialed in.

It would be interesting if he did a before and after and what went right/wrong at the end of the season. Take his projection from start of the season, how his model would evaluate the team based on actual stats, and compare that to how the team actually performed in the standings. Basically a comparison between the projection, the expected results, and the actual results. I'd hope that's something that happens behind the scenes, and would help readers that don't like him understand him and his model/methods better.

 

[Celtic Note]

I don’t mind the model being flawed, i f it were presented with a little more humility, and less of the snarky comments about Blues fans. If youre going to present things like WE’RE the dummies for questioning the model, you deserve the flack.

I get that capturing statistics to reflect good defensive play is harder than counting shots and goals. There are probably some in-game events that could reflect impact better, but they’re not the available stats he can plug into a model. It would be cool to get to see the inner workings of some of the better proprietary analytics the clubs use.

The Dom comments are just noise to me. He isn’t a fans of the Blues and to me he is just baiting people, so why take the bait? To each their own though.

I would love to see what clubs use too.

 

[taylord22]

My baseline: Dom's model is near perfect engagement bait. It's accurate enough, but also unabashedly ludicrous.

If it was anything close to being a real tool, NYT would've productized it. Therefore it remains a toy.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

The problem with Dom's model, as well as any sports analysis, is that you can't account for an event that -doesn't- occur. You can look at rates and all that, but it's pretty hard to figure out how much a guy stops anything from happening since.....it didn't happen. This is why Dom's model looks silly for defensive defenseman, and that's coming from someone who thinks Parayko isn't worth his contract either, for exactly the reasons Dom mentions. I don't think Parayko is a 2.5M dollar player, but I also don't think he's worth 6.5 either. I've touched on my thoughts on him in a different post last year, and I still stand by those comments.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

My baseline: Dom's model is near perfect engagement bait. It's accurate enough, but also unabashedly ludicrous.

If it was anything close to being a real tool, NYT would've productized it. Therefore it remains a toy.

I've attempted to engage Dom's and others' models, but it's mostly nonsensical. And it is so because most of us have been so polluted, corrupted and mind-controlled that we have all but lost the capability to create and perceive complex models with multiple dimensions.

When we take real control of ourselves, our perceptions broaden.

Not a single one of these models like Dom's is any good. The concepts in parts of Dom's model are way too big to measure in ways that are reliable and valid. It is not even sound basic science. I understand that there are conferences for advanced stats in sports, but it appears like the NHL stats peeps are weak. They don't understand basic scientific method.

Until we can perceive more dimensions than we currently can, simple is best. And guys like Dom are misrepresenting their data in a graph with a fancy title that is supposedly a representation of a concept that is more complex than we can comprehend.

I don't look at any of those stats sites with big claims. This is why Dom's model sucks, imo.

 

[Drubilly]

I've attempted to engage Dom's and others' models, but it's mostly nonsensical. And it is so because most of us have been so polluted, corrupted and mind-controlled that we have all but lost the capability to create and perceive complex models with multiple dimensions.

When we take real control of ourselves, our perceptions broaden.

Not a single one of these models like Dom's is any good. The concepts in parts of Dom's model are way too big to measure in ways that are reliable and valid. It is not even sound basic science. I understand that there are conferences for advanced stats in sports, but it appears like the NHL stats peeps are weak. They don't understand basic scientific method.

Until we can perceive more dimensions than we currently can, simple is best. And guys like Dom are misrepresenting their data in a graph with a fancy title that is supposedly a representation of a concept that is more complex than we can comprehend.

I don't look at any of those stats sites with big claims. This is why Dom's model sucks, imo.

I totally read this in the voice of peyote.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Looking at streaming options. What is best option to be able to ensure that I don't miss any hockey games. I want to make sure I get all Blues games and have NHL network. I can add ESPN+ to any of them, but it looks like some of the streaming services don't have Bally's or NHL Network. Any guidance? Thanks!

 

[Majorityof1]

Looking at streaming options. What is best option to be able to ensure that I don't miss any hockey games. I want to make sure I get all Blues games and have NHL network. I can add ESPN+ to any of them, but it looks like some of the streaming services don't have Bally's or NHL Network. Any guidance? Thanks!

Since you live in Texas, I assume you will be in the Dallas Stars coverage area. That means that ESPN+ and Victory+ (for Dallas games) should cover all but 3 regular season Blues games. You'll be blacked out of any Dallas games on ESPN+, but those are on Victory. The last 3, including the Winter Classic, are are TNT but can also be watched on HBO Max. So you'll need either a cable package or sub to Max for those.

I do not see any NHL Network games scheduled yet, but there probably will be a few on NHL Network. That is a pain as not all cable packages carry them, especially the streaming cable packages (Youytube, Sling, Hulu etc). I have lived in cities I literally could not get NHL network for any amount of money. You may have to sail the high seas if that happens. This link you can enter your zip code, and find out which cable providers carry it: NHL Network Viewerlink

 

[bleedblue1223]

The problem with Dom's model, as well as any sports analysis, is that you can't account for an event that -doesn't- occur. You can look at rates and all that, but it's pretty hard to figure out how much a guy stops anything from happening since.....it didn't happen. This is why Dom's model looks silly for defensive defenseman, and that's coming from someone who thinks Parayko isn't worth his contract either, for exactly the reasons Dom mentions. I don't think Parayko is a 2.5M dollar player, but I also don't think he's worth 6.5 either. I've touched on my thoughts on him in a different post last year, and I still stand by those comments.

Sort of. Some metrics can do a good job at highlighting that, things like breaking up entries or not allowing carry-ins. JFresh's image of the micro-stats does a pretty good job of summarizing Parayko's game. He's a very good shutdown defender, very good skater, he can carry the puck with just about anyone, but doesn't really drive offense. He can score because he does have a good shot and that can be dangerous on the rush, but during settled 5v5 in-zone offense, he's not going to do much. PK is the other big thing against him, but that's a weird metric honestly.

To your point though, while you can calculate expected goals and what the actual goals were, it can vary how people use that. Does someone exceeding expected results get the benefit for good performance or is it a negative as they will be expected to revert to the mean eventually? Using rough numbers if the expected goals against for Parayko in his role was 2.5, what would the expected goals against be for an average defenseman, I think that's tougher to calculate and where a good quality of competition modifier is needed.

https://x.com/i/web/status/1763256765758533677

https://x.com/i/web/status/1552443338678468611

 

[bleedblue1223]

Looking at streaming options. What is best option to be able to ensure that I don't miss any hockey games. I want to make sure I get all Blues games and have NHL network. I can add ESPN+ to any of them, but it looks like some of the streaming services don't have Bally's or NHL Network. Any guidance? Thanks!

ESPN+ has all the games, right? I used that last season, but since KC is technically in the St. Louis area, I had to use a VPN for Blues games. If I lived outside of Blues area, I'd just use that.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

ESPN+ has all the games, right? I used that last season, but since KC is technically in the St. Louis area, I had to use a VPN for Blues games. If I lived outside of Blues area, I'd just use that.

ESPN+ has most of the games, but I'm moving to Nashville and want to also watch Preds games so need Ballys. And NHL network has some and also WJC. If NHL Network was on more streaming services this would be much easier.