2024-2025 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread.

[Beauterham]

Well we are out from playoffs with or without Parayko.

This team needs to sink heavily before they can compete again. +5 years maybe If we could get that top2 dmen from draft.

If our goal is to go the scorched earth rebuild route, it's way more profitable to move Parayko for futures instead of a rental (if, again, he waives his MNC) who's going to be a UFA at the end of next season.

Not advocating to move Parayko OR going scorched earth BTW... just hypothetical.

 

[Beauterham]

Where did this idea come from?

In the eyes of the Leaf-fans Marner is their scapegoat for choking in the playoffs. Leaf fans really want to get rid of him so I guess he's been linked to almost every team in the NHL.

Our local jester also had an article about it.

 

[Celtic Note]

Hayes ended up being a Terrible fit at the same time as Schenn ended up falling off by 20 points and having the worst defensive play of his career. Those two were locks going into the season at our #2 and #3 Centers and then both ended up being completely ineffective. It ended up with a Team where it was a one line team because no other Center was able to be effective offensively or defensively.

And it’s not like we couldn’t or shouldn’t have anticipated a Schenn fall off. Maybe that’s why we rushed into an easy to anticipate bad decision with Hayes. Because the actuary table told us what we knew was going to happen with Schenn. But it also should have told us Hayes was a bad target. Schenn and Hayes are the same age after all. All of that is disregarding any actual assessment of the player, which makes it look even more like an initial bad idea.

 

[Xerloris]

In the eyes of the Leaf-fans Marner is their scapegoat for choking in the playoffs. Leaf fans really want to get rid of him so I guess he's been linked to almost every team in the NHL.

Our local jester also had an article about it.

Oh thank god I thought for a minute it might be from someone credible.

 

[Beauterham]

Oh thank god I thought for a minute it might be from someone credible.

Yeah, he was spitballing for clicks again.

 

[Drubilly]

Yeah, he was spitballing for clicks again.

Now you have me thinking about what that ceiling looks like. GRODIE!!!!!!!

 

[Spektre]

I think it's entirely possible and dare I even say likely we make the playoffs this year. Last year our bottom 6 was the biggest weakness of the team, we basically only had 2 lines that could do anything and we significantly improved that area of weakness. Sure they weren't flashy moves but we got hard working fast players that have more skill than last years bottom 6.

They added Faksa & Joseph.. That's marginally better than last year.

The top 6 most likely are Thomas, Kyrou, Buchnevich, Schenn, Neighbors, & someone. Schenn should be a 3rd line winger, but I doubt it'll happen next year. There's nobody else on the roster who is currently a top 6 player. Having Neighbors there is somewhat of a question mark.

The Blues are still missing a 2C. Army, in his seemingly infinite wisdom, spoke of possibly Buch being the 2C. He's simply not a center.

It would be surprising to see Dvorsky in that role next year. That's not the Blues normal way of developing players. To me, not only is the bottom 6 marginally upgraded, the top 6 needs 2 legitimate players.

 

[Brian39]

Will Faksa be worth a 2nd? Or even a third for that matter? I mean he was just given away for free and looks to be a player in decline.

Follow up question, if he is good defensively, will we end up trading him or will we see his as a valued “culture” piece. I mean we still have Saad and I would wager he would be worth more or at least something.

I think him being worth a (mid-to-late) 2nd is inside the spectrum of realistic outcomes, although certainly on the more optimistic end of that spectrum. Keep in mind that it would be a deadline deal where 50% retention is the expected norm and teams are able to take on higher cap hits than they can at the start of the season due to LTIR clarity and/or banked cap space. It is much, much easier for a team to take on a bottom 6 defensive faceoff specialist at a prorated $1.6125M in March than it is to take on $3.25M before the season starts.

A big portion of the reason we still have Saad is because he has a NTC and a $4.5M cap hit through the 2025/26 season. The value and ability to trade a deadline rental isn't really comparable to the value and ability to trade a guy with term and robust trade protection.

 

[Brian39]

I think Army made the decision that Joseph + Faksa + 2nd + Faksa deadline pick is worth more than Hayes + 2nd + future hope that Hayes gains trade value.

I don't think that is a fair analysis (even though I agree with you that it is likely the train of thought).

We owed Hayes $2.625M real dollars and $3.57M cap dollars in each of the next 2 years.

We owe Joseph $3.3M real dollars and $2.95M cap dollars in each of the next 2 years.

Not quite a perfectly even swap, but pretty damn close. Keeping Hayes instead of getting Joseph still would have allowed us to pick up Faksa. It isn't like we have so much center depth that we couldn't have utilized Faksa. If Hayes was such a bad fit, sliding him to wing to creat opportunity for Faksa would have been a no brainer.

I can't include Faksa in part of the equation in the Hayes trade because the Hayes trade wasn't at all necessary to bring in Faksa.

Realistically, I think the honest math is the belief that Army believes that Joseph + Ottawa 3rd is >/= Hayes + Our 2nd. I think that equation includes both short term on-ice value as well as potential future trade value of both players.

 

[Brian39]

They added Faksa & Joseph.. That's marginally better than last year.

And Texier.

All told, it is the addition of Faksa, Joseph and Texier and the subtraction of Hayes and the combined games of Blais/Vrana/MacMac (they combined for exactly 82 games). I don't think any of Blais/Vrana/Mac wereNHL-level players last year and I think all 3 of the guys we brought in were. barring a performance dip, you're talking about a net gain of 2 NHL-caliber players. I think that is a bit more than being marginally better.

Hayes, Blais, Vrana, and Mac combined for 16 goals last season in 161 total games played. Texier and Joseph combined for 23 goals last season in 150 games played. That's a goal every 6 games out of those two lineup spots instead of getting a goal every 10 games. On its own, not a massive upgrade. However, that is before factoring in Faksa and, a (hopefully) full season from Bolduc (who scored at a 16 goal pace last year through 25 games).

I think that adding 15 goals from the bottom 6 is a fairly reasonable expectation based on the changes. We only got 51 goals from our entire forward group beyond Thomas, Kyrou, Schenn, Buch, Saad, and Neighbours (the clear top 6 last year by points, goals, and ice time). Adding 10-15 to that total is more than a marginal upgrade. That would be a 20-30% improvement in production. Not enough to drastically change the team, but that should get you a handful of extra points in the standings.

 

[Spektre]

And Texier.

All told, it is the addition of Faksa, Joseph and Texier and the subtraction of Hayes and the combined games of Blais/Vrana/MacMac (they combined for exactly 82 games). I don't think any of Blais/Vrana/Mac wereNHL-level players last year and I think all 3 of the guys we brought in were. barring a performance dip, you're talking about a net gain of 2 NHL-caliber players. I think that is a bit more than being marginally better.

Hayes, Blais, Vrana, and Mac combined for 16 goals last season in 161 total games played. Texier and Joseph combined for 23 goals last season in 150 games played. That's a goal every 6 games out of those two lineup spots instead of getting a goal every 10 games. On its own, not a massive upgrade. However, that is before factoring in Faksa and, a (hopefully) full season from Bolduc (who scored at a 16 goal pace last year through 25 games).

I think that adding 15 goals from the bottom 6 is a fairly reasonable expectation based on the changes. We only got 51 goals from our entire forward group beyond Thomas, Kyrou, Schenn, Buch, Saad, and Neighbours (the clear top 6 last year by points, goals, and ice time). Adding 10-15 to that total is more than a marginal upgrade. That would be a 20-30% improvement in production. Not enough to drastically change the team, but that should get you a handful of extra points in the standings.

I meant to include Texier. To be honest I'd rather have Texier in the top 6 than Schenn.

 

[Xerloris]

I meant to include Texier. To be honest I'd rather have Texier in the top 6 than Schenn.

You're basing that on last year when Schenn was clearly having a down year. It's entirely possible that it could be his new norm but it's also likely that was just a down year.

 

[Spektre]

You're basing that on last year when Schenn was clearly having a down year. It's entirely possible that it could be his new norm but it's also likely that was just a down year.

He’s been trending down since before last year

 

[Majorityof1]

And Texier.

All told, it is the addition of Faksa, Joseph and Texier and the subtraction of Hayes and the combined games of Blais/Vrana/MacMac (they combined for exactly 82 games). I don't think any of Blais/Vrana/Mac wereNHL-level players last year and I think all 3 of the guys we brought in were. barring a performance dip, you're talking about a net gain of 2 NHL-caliber players. I think that is a bit more than being marginally better.

Hayes, Blais, Vrana, and Mac combined for 16 goals last season in 161 total games played. Texier and Joseph combined for 23 goals last season in 150 games played. That's a goal every 6 games out of those two lineup spots instead of getting a goal every 10 games. On its own, not a massive upgrade. However, that is before factoring in Faksa and, a (hopefully) full season from Bolduc (who scored at a 16 goal pace last year through 25 games).

I think that adding 15 goals from the bottom 6 is a fairly reasonable expectation based on the changes. We only got 51 goals from our entire forward group beyond Thomas, Kyrou, Schenn, Buch, Saad, and Neighbours (the clear top 6 last year by points, goals, and ice time). Adding 10-15 to that total is more than a marginal upgrade. That would be a 20-30% improvement in production. Not enough to drastically change the team, but that should get you a handful of extra points in the standings.

There is a caveat to comparing Texier, Faksa and Joseph's goals vs Hayes et al. The former didn't have to play in the Blues bottom 6, the place where offense went to die last year.

Last year:
Hayes - career low in points and p/gm, .21 below career average
Kapanen - Career low outside of 38 game rookie year in points and pt/gm, .15 p/gm below career average,
Schenn - Lowest point per game total since 2013-14, lowest point total since than outside of one year with 56 games, .12 p/gm below career average.
Vrana - Didn't get much playing time but .28 below career average and worst point and pt/gm in career outside of rookie year which is tied exactly in both.
Blais - .15 below career average. Granted, he had just as bad of seasons in NYR.
Sunqvist - Worst ppg and points since rookie year, only slightly below career average though.

Maybe our bottom 6 was just wiped. There are some old bodies on there. Maybe fresh blood will revitalize them. But also maybe there is some issues with our coaching and usage that depresses goal and point totals for the bottom 6. We cannot guarantee that those guys coming in will not see a drop in production like Hayes did,

Also, all of those guys saw a lot more ice time than Blias or Mack did as well. All but Faksa saw more ice time that Hayes as well. Will they produce as much with less ice time. You compared games, but Mac playing 8 minutes with Sunny isn't comparable with Texier playing 15+ with Sillinger. And Joseph certainly isn't going to have a most common linemate like Stutzle in our bottom 6.

 

[Xerloris]

He’s been trending down since before last year

According to who and or what? Last year was a literal outlier in his production since coming to the Blues. Please tell me how he's been trending down?

 

[HighNote]

I see people mentioning being very lucky in terms of avoiding injuries. My question is, how much is it luck and how much is it having players that aren't injury prone?

Sundqvist is injury prone. Beyond that, who else? Most of the rest of our regulars typically don't get injured, or if they do it's not very serious or long-term. Thomas, Kyrou, Buchnevich, Parayko, and Binnington, our clear top 5 players, don't typically miss more than ~10 games a year.

Since each player was a full-time NHL'r, here are their average games played per regular season:

Thomas: 71
Kyrou: 79
Buchnevich: 73
Parayko: 77
Binnington: 55

Thomas played 11 more games than his average last season, Kyrou 3, Buch 7, Parayko 5, Binnington 2.

Missing Thomas for 11 games would sting, but the rest of those numbers are very manageable. Kyrou missing a week, Buch missing 2 weeks, Parayko missing a week and a half. Binnington a weekend. Those aren't big chunks of time. That would be regressing to the mean.

Then you have that next layer of players like Schenn, Saad, Leddy and Faulk. The first 3 aren't really injury prone at all. Faulk is a little bit, but it's not significant. He plays on average 74 games per season.

Neighbours doesn't appear to be injury prone, but it is early.

I guess if people are predicting we'll have some major injuries, then yeah, I guess so. But nothing to me indicates that we had a super anomalous season where we cheated death. I just think we have a fairly durable team. Do I think we were a little lucky? Yeah, but I don't expect that regressing to the mean will result in a huge difference like some seem to think. We don't really have a Schwartz-level of injury prone in our top 6F/top 4D anymore.

 

[Renard]

I see people mentioning being very lucky in terms of avoiding injuries. My question is, how much is it luck and how much is it having players that aren't injury prone?

Sundqvist is injury prone. Beyond that, who else? Most of the rest of our regulars typically don't get injured, or if they do it's not very serious or long-term. Thomas, Kyrou, Buchnevich, Parayko, and Binnington, our clear top 5 players, don't typically miss more than ~10 games a year.

Since each player was a full-time NHL'r, here are their average games played per regular season:

Thomas: 71
Kyrou: 79
Buchnevich: 73
Parayko: 77
Binnington: 55

Thomas played 11 more games than his average last season, Kyrou 3, Buch 7, Parayko 5, Binnington 2.

Missing Thomas for 11 games would sting, but the rest of those numbers are very manageable. Kyrou missing a week, Buch missing 2 weeks, Parayko missing a week and a half. Binnington a weekend. Those aren't big chunks of time. That would be regressing to the mean.

Then you have that next layer of players like Schenn, Saad, Leddy and Faulk. The first 3 aren't really injury prone at all. Faulk is a little bit, but it's not significant. He plays on average 74 games per season.

Neighbours doesn't appear to be injury prone, but it is early.

I guess if people are predicting we'll have some major injuries, then yeah, I guess so. But nothing to me indicates that we had a super anomalous season where we cheated death. I just think we have a fairly durable team. Do I think we were a little lucky? Yeah, but I don't expect that regressing to the mean will result in a huge difference like some seem to think. We don't really have a Schwartz-level of injury prone in our top 6F/top 4D anymore.

Sundqvist is injury prone because of how he plays the game - balls out. I don't criticize him for that, its the reason he is in the NHL.

 

[Drubilly]

Blues just signed Suter to a 1yr deal. $775k with 2.5ML in performance bonuses.

 

[Vladys Gumption]

I mean it’s fine I guess. But I don’t get it.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Leddy-Parayko
Suter-Faulk
Krug-Kessel

Joseph, Tucker, Perunovich

Someone’s gotta be on the move.

 

[mk80]

Blues just signed Suter to a 1yr deal. $775k with 2.5ML in performance bonuses.

I don’t even like it at that price for just a single year.

There’s definitely got to be another move coming on defense though with how much of a logjam we have.

 

[TheOrganist]

Leddy-Parayko
Suter-Faulk
Krug-Kessel

Joseph, Tucker, Perunovich

Someone’s gotta be on the move.

Could easily be one of the 5-10 worst defensive units on paper in franchise history. Ugh. So bad.

 

[Xerloris]

Fine signing, 1 year for stupid cheap. Apparently we tried to sign him the first time he was bought out but we wouldn't give him 4 years and Dallas would.

 

[Xerloris]

Blues enter multi-year affiliation agreement with Florida Everblades | St. Louis Blues

ESTERO, Fla.— The Florida Everblades announced today that they have entered into a multi-year affiliation agreement with the National Hockey League’s St. Louis Blues. The Everblades will serve as an affiliate for the Blues and their primary developmental affiliate, the American Hockey League’s...

www.nhl.com

So can someone explain what lvl of hockey they are and how does this effect our prospects?

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

Blues enter multi-year affiliation agreement with Florida Everblades | St. Louis Blues

ESTERO, Fla.— The Florida Everblades announced today that they have entered into a multi-year affiliation agreement with the National Hockey League’s St. Louis Blues. The Everblades will serve as an affiliate for the Blues and their primary developmental affiliate, the American Hockey League’s...

www.nhl.com

So can someone explain what lvl of hockey they are and how does this effect our prospects?

It’s the league directly under the AHL, so AA. Whoever doesn’t make Springfield’s team will get sent there.

Also, they’ve won the Kelly Cup 3 years in a row.