2024-2025 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread.

[ChicagoBlues]

Anyway, f*** aww dat trippin BS.

I do not look at the so-called advanced stats, but find it interesting when a bar graph reveals Kyrou’s overall positive effect on the team, which was something that was very easy to see during the game.

I’m a fan of analytics, but question the operational definitions, reliability and validity.

 

[shpongle falls]

Brobie is already a legit top pair dman imo, his stats and the eye test show that. Will he eventually be an elite top pair d? Remains to be seen but he’s already top pair quality easily.

Its so reassuring seeing Brobie and Parayko paired up, I’ve been getting Jaybo-Parayko flasbacks lol.

Edmonton letting him go was a f**k up of absolute epic proportions.

 

[TheOrganist]

Goaltending save percentage to try and denigrate or “full context” X defenseman seems incredibly useless to me as an evaluation tool.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Goaltending save percentage to try and denigrate or “full context” X defenseman seems incredibly useless to me as an evaluation tool.

It means definitely he's been over-performing what his underlying metrics would indicate, means as that sv% settles, he'll start having worse results, even if his play doesn't change. It's no different than when a forward is on a crazy hot streak. Examples being Barbashev in 21/22 when he shot 23.4%. Or the same season with Krug shooting 7.6% with the team shooting 14.1% with him on the ice. Players can have wildly unsustainable numbers for a stretch or even a season, and then they come back down to earth. The question is what does Broberg look like when he comes back down to earth.

I still expect him to be a very good player, but to pretend that he isn't benefitting from unsustainable goaltending that makes his defensive results look better than his metrics, is just silly.

And again, I'm not even knocking the player, I've praised him repeatedly today.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I can roll with a slight over performance argument

 

[BlueMed]

It means definitely he's been over-performing what his underlying metrics would indicate, means as that sv% settles, he'll start having worse results, even if his play doesn't change. It's no different than when a forward is on a crazy hot streak. Examples being Barbashev in 21/22 when he shot 23.4%. Or the same season with Krug shooting 7.6% with the team shooting 14.1% with him on the ice. Players can have wildly unsustainable numbers for a stretch or even a season, and then they come back down to earth. The question is what does Broberg look like when he comes back down to earth.

I still expect him to be a very good player, but to pretend that he isn't benefitting from unsustainable goaltending that makes his defensive results look better than his metrics, is just silly.

And again, I'm not even knocking the player, I've praised him repeatedly today.

You're getting lost in the numbers, my friend. As I mentioned before, when Broberg eliminates time and space from opposing forwards with proper gap control, wins board battles with effective stick placement, effortlessly carries the puck out of danger, and quickly transitions the play through the neutral zone, that has nothing to do with the goaltender or his save percentage. What we are talking about here is Broberg's individual skillset that he brings from a shift-to-shift basis.

 

[TheOrganist]

It means definitely he's been over-performing what his underlying metrics would indicate, means as that sv% settles, he'll start having worse results, even if his play doesn't change. It's no different than when a forward is on a crazy hot streak. Examples being Barbashev in 21/22 when he shot 23.4%. Or the same season with Krug shooting 7.6% with the team shooting 14.1% with him on the ice. Players can have wildly unsustainable numbers for a stretch or even a season, and then they come back down to earth. The question is what does Broberg look like when he comes back down to earth.

I still expect him to be a very good player, but to pretend that he isn't benefitting from unsustainable goaltending that makes his defensive results look better than his metrics, is just silly.

And again, I'm not even knocking the player, I've praised him repeatedly today.

And if the SV % normalizes when he’s on the ice what is your point exactly? That his +/-, an already very subjective stat, will take a hit? What “underlying metrics” are you referring to in terms of counting stats other than plus/minus? You referenced goal heaters and shooting percentage so I’m assuming you’re talking about counting stats normalizing. That seems completely random and insignificant to me when observing a defenseman unless you can directly point to Broberg is giving up an insane amount of high danger scoring chances when on the ice and Binny/Hofer are bailing him out. That doesn’t really jive with the reality.

 

[bleedblue1223]

You're getting lost in the numbers, my friend. As I mentioned before, when Broberg eliminates time and space from opposing forwards with proper gap control, wins board battles with effective stick placement, effortlessly carries the puck out of danger, and quickly transitions the play through the neutral zone, that has nothing to do with the goaltender or his save percentage. What we are talking about here is Broberg's individual skillset that he brings from a shift-to-shift basis.

During 5v5 his xGF% is 45.89%, his GF% is 66.67%. I would bet massive amounts of money that he does not sustain that GF%, and it will be because the goaltending behind him starts letting in more goals. He will simply not be able to maintain a 0.93 GA/60 during 5v5 play, and it has nothing to do with his performance.

And a correction, I was looking at his all-situations sv%, his 5v5 sv% is 97.1%. That's 2nd in the league, which means, it'll come down to earth, we'll just have to see where it settles. Petro had a single-season best of 94.5% is you want a comp.

If you guys disagree with counting stats like corsi for/against, scoring chances for/against, and high-danger scoring chances for/against, then I don't know what to tell you. As a team we are poor in those metrics, that's why we've struggled in recent years.

 

[Xerloris]

For him to come back from injury -with a new coach, and changing schemas- and quickly meet the level he was prior to going down is wild. Usually flash in the pan guys/stretches don't do that.

Not saying we shouldn't remain cautiously optimistic, but if we're evaluating just with the information we have, I see a clear cut 2D with loads of headroom.

For the record, our sample size does go back to the finals last year when he performed so well.

Trotz has been running the Preds like he's playing NHL 25. Losing both Fabbro and Tolvanen to waivers were two that were insane to me.

At least the Oilers got a 2nd and a 3rd when they decided to let players go.

If he keeps this play up then the Blues found a #1 defenseman and that contract would be an absolute steal.

So yeah, I’d sign it if he’s playing close to this level into mid February.

I expect him to actually get better now that he's actually getting ice time.

Anyway, f*** aww dat trippin BS.

I do not look at the so-called advanced stats, but find it interesting when a bar graph reveals Kyrou’s overall positive effect on the team, which was something that was very easy to see during the game.

I’m a fan of analytics, but question the operational definitions, reliability and validity.

Analytics are fine but many people I don't think understand the numbers they're looking at but they see math says this so they parrot shit that they don't understand because they don't know how to watch a game and evaluate players with their own eyes so they rely on some f***ing nerds with graphs and they still don't know what most of that means either.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Just to reiterate my actual position. He's already a bare minimum quality 2nd pair defender, and certainly has the upside that he was drafted for of being a #1. I'd absolutely start talking a long-term extension in the summer with him, and this move has dramatically improved our chances at a successful rebuild. Now we don't have to be quite as desperate for Lindstein and/or Jiricek hitting the very top end of their potential.

 

[Reality Czech]

Brobie is already a legit top pair dman imo, his stats and the eye test show that. Will he eventually be an elite top pair d? Remains to be seen but he’s already top pair quality easily.

Its so reassuring seeing Brobie and Parayko paired up, I’ve been getting Jaybo-Parayko flasbacks lol.

Edmonton letting him go was a f**k up of absolute epic proportions.

Yep, they shot themselves in the foot but it also seems that the bridge had been burned long before the offer sheet was signed. Sounds like whatever happened behind the scenes caused him to want out of that organization. I guess we're lucky that the Oilers were in win now mode and weren't willing to give him more NHL playing time but at the same time every team needs to take care of its top prospects, especially at key positions.

I'm not sure he'll ever reach Bo's peak level defensively, which not many players can, but he's already shown better offensive potential than Bo did. There were a couple of times in last night's game where he just drove to the net in a way few d-men do, which is very nice to see. He's gonna be a hell of a two way d-man and it could turn out to be Army's best move right up there with the ROR trade.

 

[bleedblue1223]

And Holloway hitting like he has recently means if Neighbours doesn't develop more, we are still in pretty good shape in regards to our young forwards.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

And Holloway hitting like he has recently means if Neighbours doesn't develop more, we are still in pretty good shape in regards to our young forwards.

Holloway has a strong shot. He really knows how to torque his core to gain force on the shot.

 

[LGB]

I haven't really liked the Broberg - Parayko pairing so far. Feels like they're always defending. Hopefully they'll build some chemistry and break out cleanly more often which I think will involve Parayko deferring to Broberg more often.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I haven't really liked the Broberg - Parayko pairing so far. Feels like they're always defending. Hopefully they'll build some chemistry and break out cleanly more often which I think will involve Parayko deferring to Broberg more often.

That's the nature of the Parayko pair for how we deploy him. It's why ideally I prefer them on different pairs, and they are viewed like we did Petro and Parayko. Parayko can handle the defensive minutes for as long as he possibly can, and let Broberg try to be as productive as possible offensively.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

I feel like

I haven't really liked the Broberg - Parayko pairing so far. Feels like they're always defending. Hopefully they'll build some chemistry and break out cleanly more often which I think will involve Parayko deferring to Broberg more often.

Most of that is due to Faulk and Leddy being out

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I haven't really liked the Broberg - Parayko pairing so far. Feels like they're always defending. Hopefully they'll build some chemistry and break out cleanly more often which I think will involve Parayko deferring to Broberg more often.

Good observation.

 

[BlueMed]

During 5v5 his xGF% is 45.89%, his GF% is 66.67%. I would bet massive amounts of money that he does not sustain that GF%, and it will be because the goaltending behind him starts letting in more goals. He will simply not be able to maintain a 0.93 GA/60 during 5v5 play, and it has nothing to do with his performance.

And a correction, I was looking at his all-situations sv%, his 5v5 sv% is 97.1%. That's 2nd in the league, which means, it'll come down to earth, we'll just have to see where it settles. Petro had a single-season best of 94.5% is you want a comp.

If you guys disagree with counting stats like corsi for/against, scoring chances for/against, and high-danger scoring chances for/against, then I don't know what to tell you. As a team we are poor in those metrics, that's why we've struggled in recent years.

I have no issue with the usage of statistics, but it's how they are used that is problematic. It's perfectly fine to watch the game and then use the numbers as an adjunct to support what you're observing. That can be very useful, but that's very different than watching the game on the spreadsheet and basing your entire assessment of a player using pure numbers. Hockey is a dynamic sport with both qualitative and quantitative data at hand. If you're experienced and attuned to the right details, you'll find yourself referring to the numbers less and less over time.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Analytics are fine but many people I don't think understand the numbers they're looking at but they see math says this so they parrot shit that they don't understand because they don't know how to watch a game and evaluate players with their own eyes so they rely on some f***ing nerds with graphs and they still don't know what most of that means either.

I’m well versed in statistics and the scientific method and even I cannot understand what the hell they think they’re measuring. Some of it is straightforward while most of it is operationally unsound.

Groups of statisticians most likely have perception agreements aka operational definitions, but are they valid and actually measuring what they claim to measure?

Most of these guys are making it way harder on themselves by combining too many variables to yield a single measurement.

K.I.S.S. Keep It Simple Stupid

If it ain’t easy to look at, then it’s bunk.

 

[BlueMed]

I’m well versed in statistics and the scientific method and even I cannot understand what the hell they think they’re measuring. Some of it is straightforward while most of it is operationally unsound.

Groups of statisticians most likely have perception agreements aka operational definitions, but are they valid and actually measuring what they claim to measure?

Most of these guys are making it way harder on themselves by combining too many variables to yield a single measurement.

K.I.S.S. Keep It Simple Stupid

If it ain’t easy to look at, then it’s bunk.

You nailed it. It's amazing how an entire community has taken a group of "advanced statistics" as this appeal to authority without any meaningful statistical evidence behind them. There are currently zero tests of measure to validate them and yet people use them as a way of leveraging credibility behind their arguments.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

You nailed it. It's amazing how an entire community has taken a group of "advanced statistics" as this appeal to authority without any meaningful statistical evidence behind them. There are currently zero tests of measure to validate them and yet people use them as a way of leveraging credibility behind their arguments.

A real scientist would break up the variables, measure the variables, and then check for interactions between the variables using sound and acceptable statistical models based on the probability levels and what is required by the probability value.

It’s easy. What these guys are doing is not easy. They are making it way harder than it should be, but fancy is cool, sooooo.

There’s elegance and then there’s fraud.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

During 5v5 his xGF% is 45.89%, his GF% is 66.67%. I would bet massive amounts of money that he does not sustain that GF%, and it will be because the goaltending behind him starts letting in more goals. He will simply not be able to maintain a 0.93 GA/60 during 5v5 play, and it has nothing to do with his performance.

And a correction, I was looking at his all-situations sv%, his 5v5 sv% is 97.1%. That's 2nd in the league, which means, it'll come down to earth, we'll just have to see where it settles. Petro had a single-season best of 94.5% is you want a comp.

If you guys disagree with counting stats like corsi for/against, scoring chances for/against, and high-danger scoring chances for/against, then I don't know what to tell you. As a team we are poor in those metrics, that's why we've struggled in recent years.

To the bolded, Who cares about recent years? All that matters is right now; this season.

 

[bleedblue1223]

To the bolded, Who cares about recent years? All that matters is right now; this season.

And we still suck at those metrics.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

I will add this, These advanced stats geeks and the like are on the right track and are thinking big. That’s good, but it’s like a Ph.D. candidate going way too big on their dissertation and being summarily smacked down by their advisor.

It’s easier to build a theory by piecemeal than it is to build it with a single concept. These guys are trying hard to convey complex concepts and I have to give them credit for that.

So much to add on this and I could go on and on. But not.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

You nailed it. It's amazing how an entire community has taken a group of "advanced statistics" as this appeal to authority without any meaningful statistical evidence behind them. There are currently zero tests of measure to validate them and yet people use them as a way of leveraging credibility behind their arguments.

Something that needs to be highlighted from this post is that measurements must be measured. Measurements must be tested.

Are they valid? Meaning, do they measure what they claim to measure?

And,,,,,,

Are they reliable? Meaning, can they validly measure what they claim to be measured over time?