At this points, I really don't see much argument that there isn't 1D ceiling there. I'm not saying that should be the expectation or is the most likely result, but based on what he has done through his first 15 games in the franchise (and the context of the injury being a potential de-railing moment) I just don't see an argument that he has no chance of reaching that ceiling.
As for floor or expectations, is he not already a 2D/3D?
He has 12 points in 15 games. He had major success (and IMO outplayed his partner Faulk) when his deployment was on a high-minute, offensively leaned 2nd pair. In his 3 games back from injury, he was promptly given the hardest job and the most minutes on the left side of our blue line. The underlying possession numbers don't look great there, but I've been saying for years now that the Parayko pair is the hardest deployment in the sport and isn't remotely tasked with winning the possession battle. But despite being our top LHD in a brutal role in those 3 games, he has 3 points (and is +1) while averaging 24:58 a night in those 3 games. He's on the 2nd PP unit and the 2nd PK unit.
The sample size is certainly small, but he's been "the guy" on the 2nd pair and he's been the complimentary player on the 1st pair. He's succeeding in both offensive and defensive roles. He's a point behind Parayko for the scoring lead on our blueline despite missing 12 of 27 games. His skating is top pair caliber. His outlet pass appears to be more of an asset than a liability. His hockey IQ in the offensive zone is 1st pair caliber and his hockey IQ in his own end is significantly better than what I saw when he was in Edmonton. All the tools are there to grow into a legit #1 D. That doesn't mean that he will, but the ceiling is there.
This kid has had a remarkable start to his Blues tenure. I think he's the #2 D man on this team (by merit) today and I don't see that changing any time soon. He has blown my expectations out of the water and has quickly convinced me that his upside is in line with what people thought when he was drafted.
This is where I am at too.
My caveat is that it is still a small sample size, but as the sample grows and he continues to perform, my questions about him fade with each game.
He is no worse than close to a lock as a number 3 at this point and that’s assuming this stretch of play is a heater that he comes crashing down from it. I am not convinced that is the most likely of outcomes.
I do think his point total seems high, but I don’t think he will crater when he slows. So, I think a #2 is probably where he is at and is an increasingly probable baseline.
While before I assumed that #2 would be close to his ceiling, I no longer view that as his limit. He may very well have #1 upside.
I have been relatively silent on Broberg because the sample size, the injury and the coaching change are a lot to consider. I want to see a more consistent sample that is uninterrupted by what are typically outlier occurrences.
Regardless, I am pleasantly surprised with the results so far and excited to see how he plays moving forward.
