Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v8 | Tue, Aug 8 | @ CLE | 7:00pm ET/4:00pm PT | Kikuchi vs Bibee

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

Springer has never posted a SLG% lower than 434. Career SLG% of 483.

This year? 384!!!!

Varsho SLG% past two years? 437 and 443.

This year? 358!!!

What the f*** is the hitting coach even doing? You should not be seeing power drop offs like this up and down the lineup

Springer has never posted a SLG% lower than 434. Career SLG% of 483.

This year? 384!!!!

Varsho SLG% past two years? 437 and 443.

This year? 358!!!

What the f*** is the hitting coach even doing? You should not be seeing power drop offs like this up and down the lineup

 

[dredeye]

Holy hell. I couldn’t catch the game today and I’m glad I didn’t. What a disaster. Glad we didn’t go big at the deadline. This isn’t the year. How did Ryu look

 

[dredeye]

Some more questionable decisions from Schneider tonight. Keeps in Ryu past 5 innings. Brings in Genesis to face righties/switch hitters. Should've let Richards go 2 innings to bridge the gap.

A 3-3 game is now 11-3


He gets hit really hard. Even his outs are usually smoked. Unless they can find a way to get more movement to fool hitters I don't have much hope for his development into a back end guy.

I said he shouldn’t have made it past the all star break. Managers can’t win games but they sure can lose them and he’s done that a bunch. If we miss he’ll be fired at least

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

They are still in a playoff spot and anything can happen in baseball once a team makes the playoffs. Their record against teams that aren't the Red Sox and O's is great.

They still have 11 games left vs those two teams, plus another visit to the Trop. Their record vs the other teams won't mean much if they continue to shit the bed against the AL East, which may ultimately cost them a wild card spot

 

[MS]

Springer has a wRC of 94. He's getting close to Biggio.

Springer and Ryu are both examples of the folly of giving long-term FA deals to guys in their 30s. Get 1 or 2 good years and then 3 or 4 bad ones. I don’t like to be the ‘I told you so’ guy but this is why I really didn’t like that signing when it was made. He’s doing exactly what you’d expect for a guy aged 34. There is almost nobody in baseball still hitting well past age 35.

Same deal with the Yankees and the mess of 33-35 y/o players they have making huge money to put up an OPS+ of 90.

 

[canucksfan]

Springer has never posted a SLG% lower than 434. Career SLG% of 483.

This year? 384!!!!

Varsho SLG% past two years? 437 and 443.

This year? 358!!!

What the f*** is the hitting coach even doing? You should not be seeing power drop offs like this up and down the lineup

Vladdy is having his second worst season in terms of ISO. Worst being his rookie season. Kirk his worst season in terms of ISO. Surprisingly, Bo is also having his worst season in terms of ISO.

Didn't check Biggio or Espinal because I would think their having the worst as well.

Could be that power is down across the league or the new stadium is impacting players as well.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Nothing in Springer's profile suggests he should be this bad. Walks are slightly down, but his plate discipline numbers are actually better than last year in terms of contact percentages. Exit velocity, barrels, and hard hits are similar to last year. He's not pulling the ball as much (48.3% last year vs 40.1% this year; although, over 50% since the ASB) but I don't think it's a huge deal considering it's in line with his career averages.

He is in a massive slump, no doubt about that, and it's not good enough considering the amount of money he makes. However, I think he is going snap out of it in a big way soon and finish the season strong. He's overdue for some better luck

Or maybe not and this season is just a write off for him...

 

[kb]

Springer has never posted a SLG% lower than 434. Career SLG% of 483.

This year? 384!!!!

Varsho SLG% past two years? 437 and 443.

This year? 358!!!

What the f*** is the hitting coach even doing? You should not be seeing power drop offs like this up and down the lineup

Springer has never posted a SLG% lower than 434. Career SLG% of 483.

This year? 384!!!!

Varsho SLG% past two years? 437 and 443.

This year? 358!!!

What the f*** is the hitting coach even doing? You should not be seeing power drop offs like this up and down the lineup

You can say that again!

 

[dredeye]

Nothing in Springer's profile suggests he should be this bad. Walks are slightly down, but his plate discipline numbers are actually better than last year in terms of contact percentages. Exit velocity, barrels, and hard hits are similar to last year. He's not pulling the ball as much (48.3% last year vs 40.1% this year; although, over 50% since the ASB) but I don't think it's a huge deal considering it's in line with his career averages.

He is in a massive slump, no doubt about that, and it's not good enough considering the amount of money he makes. However, I think he is going snap out of it in a big way soon and finish the season strong. He's overdue for some better luck

Or maybe not and this season is just a write off for him...

Unfortunately, our pitching has been lights out and guys are just awful offensively. I thought we’d have some power and run reduction from last year but this is epic bad. I don’t see any reason to believe Varsho or Springer are going to turn it around this year. I also don’t see Vlad’s power returning this year either. Just a right off season with a chance at a wild card that will likely have the same results as last year.

 

[trellaine201]

I watched Ryu starts before tonights and he looked really good. Easy throwing, hitting the corners etc. it goes to show MLB is a much different animal.

 

[Cloned]

This game was completely demoralizing and showcased a lot of the problems on this roster.

It’s also not a great sign that Hicks blew up in his one inning. Watch De Jong go 0-3 tomorrow with 3 Ks.

 

[Puckstuff]

Send Epsinal and Biggio to the minors. Promote Schneider. Keep Clement.

Go back to a 5 man rotation. Manoah is the 5th starter. Ryu the long man.

Gausman-Berrios-Bassit-Kikuchi-Manoah

Lineup: Merrifield-Bichette-Belt-Gurrerro-Chapman-Springer-Varsho-Jansen-Kiermaier

Bench: Kirk, Dejong, Clement, Schneider

 

[mikeyz]

At this point, I kinda hope the Jays stay in the 3rd WC spot and avoid potentially facing Baltimore in the ALDS (If they even make it)

 

[Nineteen67]

Send Epsinal and Biggio to the minors. Promote Schneider. Keep Clement.

Go back to a 5 man rotation. Manoah is the 5th starter. Ryu the long man.

Gausman-Berrios-Bassit-Kikuchi-Manoah

Lineup: Merrifield-Bichette-Belt-Gurrerro-Chapman-Springer-Varsho-Jansen-Kiermaier

Bench: Kirk, Dejong, Clement, Schneider

Ryu takes 2 days to get ready for a start, I don’t think he can come out of the pen.

 

[Nineteen67]

At this point, I kinda hope the Jays stay in the 3rd WC spot and avoid potentially facing Baltimore in the ALDS (If they even make it)

Baltimore is a year ahead of schedule and I keep thinking they’ll hit a wall, and they might yet, but they are a solid team.

The Jays are about where I expected but they had better shape up in the remaining 20 or so games against the East or they won’t make it.

 

[HuGort]

I don't watch the games. Know Jays not a good team so waste of time. But just got the score. Not good. Jays worst team than I thought. Can't do anything against ALEast

 

[theaub]

Springer and Ryu are both examples of the folly of giving long-term FA deals to guys in their 30s. Get 1 or 2 good years and then 3 or 4 bad ones. I don’t like to be the ‘I told you so’ guy but this is why I really didn’t like that signing when it was made. He’s doing exactly what you’d expect for a guy aged 34. There is almost nobody in baseball still hitting well past age 35.

Same deal with the Yankees and the mess of 33-35 y/o players they have making huge money to put up an OPS+ of 90.

There's natural aging curve regression and there's going from a 132 wRC+ to a below league average hitter in one year.

The power regression from Vlad, Springer, Kirk and Varsho is absurd. The fact that the Jays are still 7th in the league in wOBA even after that just shows how much missed potential there is in this season so far.

 

[LaP]

There's natural aging curve regression and there's going from a 132 wRC+ to a below league average hitter in one year.
The power regression from Vlad, Springer, Kirk and Varsho is absurd. The fact that the Jays are still 7th in the league in wOBA even after that just shows how much missed potential there is in this season so far.

Regression is not linear. For some guys it's slow over the span of multiple years and for others it's almost instant. Springer has been dealing with niggling injuries for a while now.

 

[LaP]

In the MLB there are a lot of instances where teams go on deep runs in the playoffs that squeak into the playoffs.
Springer could be a concern going forward. He's making big money and while a decline was expected, he's a below-average hitter now in the third year of a 6 year contract.

Go deep maybe. Win the wc unlikely. If you check the last 12 world series champs they were almost all top 8 teams during the regular season and almost all had a record of 550+.

2022 : Houston finished 2nd in the reg season with 654
2021 : Braves finished 12th in the reg season with 547
2020 : LA finished 1st during the reg season with 717
2019 : Washington finished 8th during the reg season with 574
2018 : Boston finished 1st during the reg with 667
2017 : Houston finished 3rd during the reg with 623
2016 : Cubs finished 1st during the reg with 640
2015 : KC finished 4th during the reg with 586
2014 : SF finished 8th during the reg with 543
2013 : Boston finished 1st during the reg with 599
2012 : SF finished 4th during the reg with 580
2011 : Stl finished 8th during the reg with 556
2010 : SF finished 5th during the reg with 568

Jays are currently 8th at 546. They are within the teams who can hope to win but it's borderline and they are probably 1 injury away from probably falling out of it. Their position as "contenders" is not a very solid one atm. Not sure if it's too late into the season to fire the batting coach but i'd think about it for sure.

 

[Eyedea]

Go deep maybe. Win the wc unlikely. If you check the last 12 world series champs they were almost all top 8 teams during the regular season and almost all had a record of 550+.

2022 : Houston finished 2nd in the reg season with 654
2021 : Braves finished 12th in the reg season with 547
2020 : LA finished 1st during the reg season with 717
2019 : Washington finished 8th during the reg season with 574
2018 : Boston finished 1st during the reg with 667
2017 : Houston finished 3rd during the reg with 623
2016 : Cubs finished 1st during the reg with 640
2015 : KC finished 4th during the reg with 586
2014 : SF finished 8th during the reg with 543
2013 : Boston finished 1st during the reg with 599
2012 : SF finished 4th during the reg with 580
2011 : Stl finished 8th during the reg with 556
2010 : SF finished 5th during the reg with 568

Jays are currently 8th at 546. They are within the teams who can hope to win but it's borderline and they are probably 1 injury away from probably falling out of it. Their position as "contenders" is not a very solid one atm. Not sure if it's too late into the season to fire the batting coach but i'd think about it for sure.

Well looks like I'd rather finish 8th than 2nd!

 

[Eyedea]

Regression is not linear. For some guys it's slow over the span of multiple years and for others it's almost instant. Springer has been dealing with niggling injuries for a while now.

All of his expected stats suggest a pretty graceful decline from previous years. He's not the 2019-2021 beast but he shouldn't be nearly this bad either. It's been a rough 2 week stretch

 

[LaP]

All of his expected stats suggest a pretty graceful decline from previous years. He's not the 2019-2021 beast but he shouldn't be nearly this bad either. It's been a rough 2 week stretch

Oh for sure my mantra is never evaluate a plyer during a good or bad sequence. Small sample size etc. He's in the middle of a terrible sequence i'm sure things will go better soon. It's too soon to say he's regressing will have to wait next season for that. But many of Jays bats are struggling this year and at one point we will need to start to look at something else than just bad luck if it keeps going. Coaching?

 

[bossram]

That’s not really true and velocity is less of a concern from the left side. Rich Hill has been throwing sub 90 since forever

I haven't followed baseball for a long time, but all I know about Rich Hill is he's a guy I hammer for walk props.

 

[MS]

There's natural aging curve regression and there's going from a 132 wRC+ to a below league average hitter in one year.

The power regression from Vlad, Springer, Kirk and Varsho is absurd. The fact that the Jays are still 7th in the league in wOBA even after that just shows how much missed potential there is in this season so far.

When it goes, it can go.

Jose Bautista went from 118 to 79 in a year. Edwin went from 132 to 70 and his career was over.

Now, Springer is in an outlier 0-35 slump and that has dropped his OPS way down and surely it will rebound a bit before the season ends. But I don't see anything that unusual about a guy aged 33-34 going from 132 to somewhere in the 100-110 range. It's expected, if anything.

This was basically my concern at the time of the signing - by Year 3 of a 6-year deal, we have an old, average-hitting corner OF getting horribly overpaid. And it looks like we've arrived at that point.

 

[RoadWarrior]

Hmmm what's Varsho's defensive WAR?

Gurriel has a below average bat this year and you're talking about him like he's big time slugger or something.

Varsho might be useful in the 9th spot in the lineup instead of killing rallies at 6 or 7. He’s part of the reason why Vladdy and Chapman get nothing to hit.