If the jays just had a .500 record against AL East/beast teams this year, we would lead the division easily.
We struggle against Boston/baltimore. 1-12 record against them this season alone.
Blue Jays GDT: 2023 v7 | Sat, Jul 29 | vs LAA | 3:00pm ET/12:00pm PT | Detmers vs Manoah
- Thread starter The Nemesis
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We struggle against Boston/baltimore. 1-12 record against them this season alone.
For the record, Mitch White had a 3.72 ERA and 3.28 FIP coming into the game. He's been perfectly fine until today's garbage performance, yet people act like this has been the standard for him all year or something.
PanniniClaus
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If we are not going to trust Kikuchi, why don't we use an opener for him and let him go in bulk relief?
CabanaBoy5
Registered User
10.1 innings with an ERA of 6.10…what has this guy shown in the couple of seasons here that would warrant a place on this team?
On the positive side, the offence, notwithstanding Kirk, was very good again.
He’d been better in 9 mop-up innings but overall since being acquired he has an ERA over 8 in 76 innings between MLB and the minors. It’s been a lot of bad and he hasn’t earned the benefit of the doubt.
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
It was a moderately trivial amount. Moises Brito is and was a nothing-burger while Nick Frasso is a middling prospect (he's currently 16th on Fangraphs' Dodgers list with a 40+ FV). Meanwhile the Jays got back White and prospect Alex de Jesus (23rd on the FG Jays list, 40 FV likely corner IF).
There's every probability that Frasso is just a solid reliever and the Jays have a mild lottery ticket in de Jesus (he's cut his k rate down significantly this season as he's repeating the year at high A, having landed in Vancouver after the trade. He's having a strong season for the C's while demonstrating pretty solid power for the NWL and especially for how much of a HR-killer Nat Bailey is.)
Yes it's not a great trade if the big MLB piece the Jays got flames out, but it was a swing at Stripling 2.0 and even if White fails the trade is still somewhere in the vicinity of OK as a swap of mid-tier prospects. It's hardly the kind of deal you can use to hold management's feet to the flames. It's not like they traded surefire MLBers for magic beans.
Canada4Gold
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Completely unrelated to the White trade, but I only just realized that the Jays got a 3rd player inthe Grpshans for Pop/Bass deal in PTBNL Edward Duran who at 19 years of age has abolutely shredded the FCL this year to a slash line of .341/.463/.477 with a 18.5 BB% and 13.0 K%. Catcher/1st baseman on fangraphs which leads me to believe it's probably the latter and not someone who stcisk at catcher but you never know. He might end of better than Groshans and we basically get Pop and Bass for free.
I really like how the Jays are targeting certain prospects to tack onto these win now deals. Sure we'll trade you Grichuk and take Tapia but we need Pinto. Fine Frasso for White works but we need De Jesus back. We can part with Groshans and Brito for Pop and Bass but we need PTBNL added on, our choice of Duran and X. These guys are low end guys but you do it enough and scout the lower minors well enough to target the right guys and it will pay out big eventually.
Cloned
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At the time of the trade, Frasso was getting a lot of hype as a prospect. Obviously we don’t know what else he could’ve returned in another trade, but it’s disappointing that the return was Mitch White.
It’s also part of a larger pattern with Atkins. For every decent to good move that he makes, it seems like he matches it with a bad one. This is partly why it feels like the team is spinning its wheels in the middle of its contention window; instead of getting demonstrably better year over year, he fixes holes in the roster but creates other ones in the process.
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The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
Speaking of Groshans, I had forgotten all about him so I just looked up his stats this season. He's having a pretty shit year for the Marlins' AAA squad. 69 wRC+ in 358 triple A plate appearances. For a guy whose bat was was supposed to be his ticket to the bigs, that's.... woof.
He was also a full-time SS in Buffalo when we traded him and he's now splitting games between 1B and 3B. Looks like they did well selling high (or at least before his stock cratered) on him.
phillipmike
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What are those bad deals? Because I can only think of 2-3 that are considered “bad” which isn’t bad for 7.5 years on the job. And even bad is a stretch.
phillipmike
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The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
I'm pretty sure he was always projected to end up at 3rd as a big leaguer even if the Jays were hanging onto those SS dreams to the bitter end.
i was going to do a full rundown before I discovered that there was no easy list of all of their deals that didn't stop in like 2020. But in doing a bunch of work on the concept before I pulled the plug, I only really found 3 absolute standout losses
1) Liam Hendriks for Jesse Chavez (Chavez was trash. Hendriks was a middling reliever though he didn't find his footing as an elite closer until like 4 years after the deal)
2) Josh Donaldson for Julian Merryweather (The club was guilty of holding onto Donaldson too long, though some of that was at the behest of ownership, who didn't want to wave the white flag so early. Merryweather was mostly trash when he wasn't hurt, though he did have that one shining season debut against the Yankees a couple of years ago. Donaldson has also never been the same after his MVP year, but he was still a solid contributor for a couple more seasons before his current morass with the Yankees.)
3) JA Happ for Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney (McKinney was a nothing-burger. Drury was terrible and a running joke with the Jays before he broke out last season in Cincy. Happ had a good year with the Yanks before his wheels eventually fell off)
There have been some softer, milder losses, but usually not such that I'd get super worked up over them. The Aaron Sanchez trade? The Stroman trade? (though that one ultimately led to Berrios), the Osuna deal if you ignore that it was forced by Rogers' wanting to distance themselves from Osuna's off-field issues and the fact that Giles had a strong year for the Jays while Osuna managed 2 good years in Houston before he was forced out there too and fled to Japan. People are ready to anoint Gurriel/Moreno for Varsho in that pile too, but it's not even been a full season yet and it's closer than people think (in spite of his ASG appearance, Gurriel has been ice cold since May and that streakiness is typical Gurriel. Moreno is good but not great so far in the desert, and Varsho has been one of the very best defensive OF in the league while being only slightly awful with the bat)
Compare that to the Chapman trade, Hutchison for Liriano, McGuire, and Ramirez, Liriano for Hernandez and Aoki, Leone/Greene for Grichuk, Travis Begen for Robbie Ray, the Martin/SWR for Berrios, Stripling for Noda/Williams, Rowdy for Richards and Francis, Taylor and Castillo for Merrifield..
For sure the team hasn't won all of its trades, but on balance I'd say they've done well far more frequently than they've screwed up. People just remember the screw ups more vividly.
The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
Bad trades and poor DFAs happen often. Imagine if the Dodgers didn’t trade Yordan for a reliever? Or if the Cards actually waited for Adolis Garcia and Randy Arozarena to break out. Plus the Jays have been on the good side of those moves (Teo, Chappy, Merrifield, Berrios, Ray, Stripling, Matz, etc.).
I'm not even sure Donaldson for Merryweather was the worst Josh Donaldson trade an AL East team has made.
Minny got 3.7 fWAR from Sanchez/Urshela and were free of both contracts after a year.
NYY has 3.1fWAR from Donaldson/Kiner-Falefa/Rortvedt so far while paying JD/IKF 31M this year
The stinker here isn't even that though. The stinker is that the difference is the ability to sign Correa (5.6 fWAR so far and make 2.3M more than the 2 guys NYY got).
I'll be honest, I first read that as if the Jays signed a player named Campbell Camels and now I'm really disappointed that isn't the case.
phillipmike
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I forgot about that Happ one. That one was terrible but of course Drury breakouts after we let him go. JD didnt make sense to me either, QO and take the pick if he walks. If he accepts, trade him. Another one where Merryweather is doing well with the Cubs.
The Hendriks for Chavez one doesnt count for me in this context. Cloned said;
"It’s also part of a larger pattern with Atkins. For every decent to good move that he makes, it seems like he matches it with a bad one. "
And this trade was made on November 20, 2015 and Atkins wasnt hired on December 3, 2015. So LaCava made that trade.
Thats how i view it. I see 2-3 bad trades and 10+ good to great ones which hardly spinning their wheels as it was mentioned by the previous poster. You take that record 10 times out of 10. Donaldson had 2 good seasons after then plummeted. Happ was good for the rest of the season then put up 1.3 WAR in his final 3 seasons before retiring.
A few others that i would consider wins, albeit small wins, but wins nonetheless;
In the first contention window;
-Ratcliffe for Grilli
-Storen for Benoit
Not in contention:
-Joe Smith for Samad Taylor which helped land Whit
-JB Woodman for Aledmys Diaz
-Kendrys Morale for slot money which helped land Sem Robberse and Yosver Zulueta (currently 2 top 10 prospects)
Pearce for Espinal was a win-win.
Current contention window:
-Alberto Rodriguez for Taijuan Walker
-Yennsy Diaz, Sean Reid-Foley and Josh Winckowski for Steven Matz
-McInvale and Panik for Cimber and Dickerson
-Teo trade looks pretty good to get Swanson and a lottery ticket in Macko
Suntouchable13
Registered User
About JD, it’s not the return at the time but Atkins and Shap held onto him too long. Could have traded him after 2017 and got a relative haul. They basically waited till his value was nil. I don’t know why they had to wait.
Yeah, the timing is by far the worst part of the Donaldson trade. There's been lots of talk about whether or not ownership was going to allow them to tear it down that offseason, so it's possible that it's not even on management - but even then, if the return was only going to be Merryweather, they could have held him and given him the QO.
Da Cool Rula
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Suntouchable13
Registered User
In 2015 how many games were the Jays out first place again at the end of July? 6? Then they finished 1st place by 6 games themselves. It’s not 2015 anymore, I don’t live in the past, I am just saying it is very doable. Of course, those pesky Orioles are also standing in between.
July 28, 2015 - 8 games back with 61 games left
Today - 6 games back with 68 games left
Suntouchable13
Registered User
Thanks. Jays were 11 games back of Tampa at one point, I believe. Now they are 6 back, means that they are 5 games better since then. There is no doubt in my mind that being 7 games better than them the rest of the way is achievable. Of course, like I said, we also have the Orioles to contend with.
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