Do police deter crime? I mean it still happens and we imprison as many people as any country in the history of the world.
To prove something was deterred you have to show what didn't happen = proving a negative.
But believe whatever gets your biscuits burning
But I'm not claiming there is proof of deterrence. I'm arguing the opposite.
Look, there are two factors here: X and Y.
X = the presence of enforcers
Y = star players (or skilled rookies in this case) getting hit or run at.
The argument that's often made is that X results in the deterrence of Y.
That is, in fact, what is logically impossible to prove. If there is no occurrence of Y, can we conclude that it's because of X? Maybe, but it could also be because of other factors as well. Now, obviously it might be true in some cases, but we don't know.
What we DO know - what we have evidence of – is that Y does sometimes occur even in the presence of X. Star players have been hit hard, hit from behind, and run at, even when there are highly feared enforcers there to retaliate. But their presence deterred nothing in these cases.
It's like if I claimed that when I wear my red shoes, it deters rain.
Monday: I wear the red shoes. No rain!
Tuesday: I wear the red shoes. No rain!
Wednesday: I wear the red shoes. No rain!
Proof, you say, that the red shoes deter rain!
Thursday, I wear the red shoes. It rains.
The "red shoes as a rain deterrent" argument is washed away.
Sure. But they’d give it right back.
...which is a response, not a deterrence.