2023 Trade Deadline (03/03/23 3PM EST)

[cbjthrowaway]

Yep, exactly. Meaning that if Jarmo does this trade now, there is an above 0% chance that the dude leaves the organization before the team is even ready to be a contender

he has two more seasons on his deal after this one.

if it's a deadline move, jarmo has two full years (march 2023 - feb 2025) to convince him to extend. if not, they move him at the deadline in two years.

in that scenario (which is arguably the worst case scenario), it looks something like this:

2023 out: gavrikov, ceulemans, 2023 2nd, 2024 protected 1st
2023 in: chychrun at a low AAV for two years
2025 out: chychrun as a rental with retention
2025 in: 1st round pick ++

given that they have too many unproven young guys to be effective/competitive as a team, taking a swing on a guy is an established star, still fits their timeline AND provides surplus value on his contract seems like a no-brainer given that they can recoup most of the initial acquisition cost.

if they don't do the trade now, there's a 100% chance that jakob chychrun isn't on this team when it's contending.

 

[koteka]

Hayes has been head butting with Torts…

Hayes no retention for Elvis.

 

[BB88]

Chychryn. He is ufa in 2 years

So it’s really not a concern for today.

The attitude can’t be Columbus is going to be forever bad.
This is the final draft that should matter like this in a very long time.

 

[koteka]

This is the final draft that should matter like this in a very long time.

I fully expect next year to give us a good piece as well. My guess is we pick around 8 next year.

 

[majormajor]

Still am wondering if someone we don’t think about moving as a rental, such as Roslovic, could get traded.

Hayes has been head butting with Torts… I wonder if Hayes with retention for Roslovic could make sense.

Parlay that with a Nyquist extension, and picks plus prospects for Chychrun or really any middle pair D (and assuming we pick 4OA or worse):

Gaudreau Hayes Marchenko
Johnson Jenner Laine
Nyquist Sillinger Chinakhov
Robinson Kuraly Tex/Danforth
Foudy

Werenski Jiricek
XXX Peeke
Blankenburg Gudbranson
7th
^ Whoever isn’t traded between 27 and 22

roslovic definitely isn't a fit for torts on paper but his best season here was the one where torts was the head coach, so… maybe torts actually liked him?

given the tension between hayes and torts + hayes's friendship with gaudreau, i could actually see him waiving to come here.

the term doesn't seem ideal on the surface, but hayes is younger than i realized (30) – the deal will expire when he's 34. if cbj gets lucky enough to draft a bedard/fantilli, their ELC will expire the same summer as hayes's current contract.

in the meantime, he's basically getting 2C money and could be a temporary/stopgap 1C for columbus, then slide down to 2C if a better option presents itself, or be a plus 3C at the end of his contract. factor in the low acquisition cost and he's kind of a perfect (albeit partial) solution to the center woes.

How many 1sts are they paying us to take on Hayes' contract?

I think I might rather have Roslovic. At least he can skate. Hayes is also an inconsistent player and when he's not good he's really not good. A marginal skater that is getting very old and unathletic, I'm imagining Torts is having conflict with him because he has to push the old donkey to keep up. Why did you imagine Torts was clashing with him? Because Torts is a dick? I would guess Torts has good reasons. Flyers fans described Hayes as more of a country club type player, and they expected them to clash more than anyone when Torts was hired.

I really think we're going to be okayish at center next year with Jenner and KJ and possibly a Bedard or Fantilli. I have zero problem with KJ and Jenner at center. We do need to acquire more veterans but let's aim higher than Hayes. Roslovic should also be very movable with only one year left, maybe just needing a bit of retention.

 

[BB88]

I fully expect next year to give us a good piece as well. My guess is we pick around 8 next year.

That can’t be the goal.

The prospect pool should be ”finished” after this draft and all of the focus needs to be on becoming a playoff team followed by becoming a legit threat

 

[majormajor]

That can’t be the goal.

The prospect pool should be ”finished” after this draft and all of the focus needs to be on becoming a playoff team followed by becoming a legit threat

I expect/demand the FO to leave no excuse in the lineup and have us capable of fighting for a playoff spot next year. But with how good the East is and how bad this current team is, it's going to take more than a year. You can't easily wipe the stink off a season like this, we have so many players that don't know how to win in the NHL and will need to unlearn whatever they've been doing this year. That and the FO will probably go back to Elvis Tarasov next year. With that, even finishing 8th worst might be too optimistic.

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

That can’t be the goal.

The prospect pool should be ”finished” after this draft and all of the focus needs to be on becoming a playoff team followed by becoming a legit threat

Obviously it's not the goal, but the reality is that the gap to a playoff spot will be +30 points this season. Yes, injuries have been a factor, but that's still almost unrealisticly large gap to close in one summer.

Best shot is at doing it is getting Bedard, but that's unlikely to happen.

 

[ThirdPeriodTurtle]

Dominoes are falling, Zaitsev traded to Chicago. Slightly excited now, at least we're starting to get trades. Although I'd rather Chicago of all teams to keep their trades until the deadline.

 

[Jovavic]

Ottawa dumps Zaitsev on Chicago, they're freeing up space for something

 

[5th Line Fanatic]

Supposedly the ask was 3 1sts and Edmonton was willing to pay it. One widely spread report was Bouchard + Bourgault + 1st, along with the cap dumps. And supposedly the deal only broke down because 2-3m in retention wasn't enough for Edmonton, they want more like $5m. I think Karlsson has been so good that if you can get $3m in retention you pay that cost. Certainly for Edmonton.

The equivalent offer from the Jackets would be like Boqvist + Ceulemans + late 1st. I would pay that. It's tricky because Karlsson's age and term better match a contending team like Edmonton (and he has control and would likely steer himself to a contender), but if by chance you can get him to Columbus that's a good deal for us and probably gets us back to the playoffs much more quickly. Karlsson fixes more than just the PP. The whole 5v5 of attack of the team would improve.

Thanks for your response. I felt like I must be missing something on this. We could have Karlsson for basically the cost of Cychrun. Would cost a bit more cash, but we'd have him next to Werenski for two years longer. Sign me up!

 

[majormajor]

Thanks for your response. I felt like I must be missing something on this. We could have Karlsson for basically the cost of Cychrun. Would cost a bit more cash, but we'd have him next to Werenski for two years longer. Sign me up!

The ~$9m expected cap hit and the extra two years term is largely why a lot of clubs wouldn't be interested. He's 32. But he's currently the league's top even strength scorer, he might just be a great player that entire term. $9m x 4 for EK sounds like a great deal to me. I hope we make a pitch to him this summer (no way we can convince EK to come to Columbus this season).

 

[5th Line Fanatic]

The ~$9m expected cap hit and the extra two years term is largely why a lot of clubs wouldn't be interested. He's 32. But he's currently the league's top even strength scorer, he might just be a great player that entire term. $9m x 4 for EK sounds like a great deal to me. I hope we make a pitch to him this summer (no way we can convince EK to come to Columbus this season).

Plus it would allow Jiricek some time to bake on the second pair.

 

[BB88]

I expect/demand the FO to leave no excuse in the lineup and have us capable of fighting for a playoff spot next year. But with how good the East is and how bad this current team is, it's going to take more than a year. You can't easily wipe the stink off a season like this, we have so many players that don't know how to win in the NHL and will need to unlearn whatever they've been doing this year. That and the FO will probably go back to Elvis Tarasov next year. With that, even finishing 8th worst might be too optimistic.

They may finish there, but the mindset for the next 6 monthd needs to be ”we don’t care about -24 draft”.
Maybe they end up caring about it but the mindset needs to be rebuild is done and now on phase 2.

& the East will see a lot of change in the near future.
Boston will see a major 1 year drop with Krejci& Bergeron being UFA’s and zero money to pay anyone.
Pens/Was/Isles don’t look good longterm.

Again maybe they end up picking high, that just can’t be in their mind

Obviously it's not the goal, but the reality is that the gap to a playoff spot will be +30 points this season. Yes, injuries have been a factor, but that's still almost unrealisticly large gap to close in one summer.

Best shot is at doing it is getting Bedard, but that's unlikely to happen.

Adding
Bedard/Fantilli
Jiricek
Chychrun/someone similar
Werenski
More experienced Johnson would have this roster looking entirely different.

At that point the biggest thing/question mark becomes the coaching

 

[majormajor]

They may finish there, but the mindset for the next 6 monthd needs to be ”we don’t care about -24 draft”.
Maybe they end up caring about it but the mindset needs to be rebuild is done and now on phase 2.

I'm 100% in agreement. We need a Chychrun/Orlov/EKarlsson/KAM level upgrade. Rebuild over. Maybe even trade the 2024 1st, although keep top 5 protection, because my actual expectations, especially with Elvis in net, are going to be lower.

 

[domi28]

Ottawa dumps Zaitsev on Chicago, they're freeing up space for something

At least someone in the league is weaponizing their cap space.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Ottawa dumps Zaitsev on Chicago, they're freeing up space for something

Why? They're like 6 points out and have a bunch of teams to jump just to get in.

 

[majormajor]

Why? They're like 6 points out and have a bunch of teams to jump just to get in.

They're done rebuilding, now prodding the young players to go all out down the stretch, I think very consciously to get all the youthful complacency out of their games. Look for them to try to add a long term piece like Chychrun or maybe even EK.

Edit: I can't entirely rule out the possibility that Dorion is selfishly going to load up in a desperate attempt to make the playoffs so he doesn't get fired. The team hasn't been sold yet so I'm not sure if anyone is around to stop him.

 

[Fro]

I have thought for a while they may look at a EK reunion

 

[punk_o_holic]

Just wondering, if Lohrei is offered for Gavrikov rather than a 1st round pick, any concern he doesn't sign and plays in college until he becomes a UFA? What a disaster it would be if the key piece chooses that route. If Jarmo gave teams permission to talk to Gavrikov, any chance he asked Boston to be able to talk to Lohrei and to find out what his plans are? Sure Lohrei can say all the right things and still not sign. Or maybe he loves the city of Columbus and is on board.

 

[BB88]

I'm 100% in agreement. We need a Chychrun/Orlov/EKarlsson/KAM level upgrade. Rebuild over. Maybe even trade the 2024 1st, although keep top 5 protection, because my actual expectations, especially with Elvis in net, are going to be lower.

With Gavrikov trade (expected return) Chychrun would be #1 on my list.

Fits the new core age wise and has plenty of experience.
& Columbus would be pretty ideal place for him as well.
He’d settle in as the new #3 moving forward.
Werenski& Jiricek would be expected to take the heaviest pressure off his shoulders.

If that doesn’t I’d be calling Colorado non stop this summer.
It will be about impossible to pay all Mackinnon/Makar/Rantanen/Byram/Toews/Landeskog longterm and find an expensive 2C from the market, enen if they’d trade Girard.

Those 6 would take 55-60M from the cap

 

[VT]

I know, just .. grading fan's realistic trade proposal but interesting I think.

 

[koteka]

Just wondering, if Lohrei is offered for Gavrikov rather than a 1st round pick, any concern he doesn't sign and plays in college until he becomes a UFA?

He is a 2nd year college player who is 22. He could sign after the college season or wait 2 more seasons. I have to think he is ready to go pro.

 

[koteka]

With Gavrikov trade (expected return) Chychrun would be #1 on my list.

Please explain to me why Chychrun, who has had no control over his career, would not relish the idea of free agency when his contract is up. There is not a player in the NHL that is counting down the days until July 1, 2025 more than Jakob Chychrun. Giving up assets for Chychrun makes no sense. Maybe you think we can flip him for similar assets at the deadline in 2025 so he won’t cost much, but we are talking about a guy who is injured almost as much as Ryan Murray and Nick Blankenburg, so that is a huge risk to take.

 

[BB88]

Please explain to me why Chychrun, who has had no control over his career, would not relish the idea of free agency when his contract is up. There is not a player in the NHL that is counting down the days until July 1, 2025 more than Jakob Chychrun. Giving up assets for Chychrun makes no sense. Maybe you think we can flip him for similar assets at the deadline in 2025 so he won’t cost much, but we are talking about a guy who is injured almost as much as Ryan Murray and Nick Blankenburg, so that is a huge risk to take.

You are worrying about something that’s 2.5 years away, that’s a very long time.

I understand he wants to play real games and Columbus would have 2.5 years to convince him they are real.

He’d enter a great situation in Columbus.
They have a top3 prospect pool in the league and could add a franchise C prospect this summer.

They have Gaudreau/Laine/Werenski as veterans.
Now add Gaudreau/Laine/Werenski/Chychrun core with a top prospect pool in the league and you are looking at a legit exciting young team.

& no one is saying pay 2 own 1st round picks for him.
This would be using a player who’s not going to stay in Columbus+ to land a more longterm player.

You’d rather give someone an anchor contract instead than try your luck with Chychrun?

Where’s the real downside?

-Columbus has to start winning soon, they will need to be aggressive
- The price with Gavrikov trade isn’t anything crazy
- the cap hit/contract is zero risk
- You can sell him in 2 years time to gain assets back if it doesn’t work

Where’s the massive downside?
I’d rather target Chychrun than overpay a 30y that’s going to hurt the roster and I’d rather target Chychrun than do nothing.

Unless Columbus wins Bedard lottery they won’t be a top5 destination this summer for top players.
Chychrun is under contract