2023 Tank Thread (Mod post Page 60)

[GunnarStahl]

Since it seems the Ducks will likely finish bottom 5 this year, I figured we should have a thread for discussing the implications of where the f***s will finish in the standings. As well as what factors could affect where they finish.

Tonight was interesting as all bottom 5 teams earned 2 points sans the Ducks and the Hawks.

Hey Folks,

Want to clear some of the air here, Tank talk is not an issue, please talk tank to your heart’s content here, totally understand how critical it is for that Future Potential Top pick. The issue is posting in the GDT, like you want the team to lose or make posts that you are angry they are winning or won the game, or bashing the team for not tanking.

The main reason is, to respect your fellow members. The GDT is about discussion of the game on a live basis and then post game discussion and opinions. A lot of fans are not rooting for the team to lose, and everyone has their views and opinions towards tanking, and may not want to discuss tanking in the GDT

If you guys have any concerns, feel free to PM me or another mod, and would be happy to explain more in detail.

Thanks!

Leo

Click to read more...

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

i think there's way too much uncertainty for a team to spend assets for that pick. a team already having that pick and making that call carries less risk (still substantial risk though)

Possibly, I do think there are a few teams that would consider moving up for the chance at a franchise player tho…. Just depends if they will pay what it would take for us to risk not getting that next tier of player

 

[Hockey Duckie]

You Guys think Lacombe makes the ducks next year full time?

I have no idea. Playing two to four games at the end of the season isn't enough of a gauge, but maybe enough of a gauge to say you're better than players not named Fowler and Drysdale. Even then, that doesn't mean he's NHL ready. I hope so, though.

 

[HanSolo]

nah, toews is so cooked he'll only help the hawks tank even more. i'd be shocked if they win another game this season


russia political situation+team owner with endless $$$ who will do whatever it takes to keep him in russia

I didn't mean Toews would put the team on their back and win it for them. More that with the sun setting on his career, the Hawks might try extra hard in the last couple games to give him a proper send off. I'm not saying it's very likely but it's a potential factor. Especially with Torts washing his hands of Philly's remaining season and giving the assistant coaches a shot at practicing being a head coach.

Part of it is I'm just scraping for hope. This kind of reverse playoff bubble uncertainty where we're hoping the team doesn't claw their way to lower odds and a lower guaranteed pick.

6th overall wouldn't be some Greek tragedy by any means as Benson and Smith still have strong potential but require more work and development to get there. Idk. Right now, with Vegas comfortably clinched, the only thing I care about in hockey at the moment is seeing the Ducks get as high a pick as possible.

 

[Terry Yake]

I didn't mean Toews would put the team on their back and win it for them. More that with the sun setting on his career, the Hawks might try extra hard in the last couple games to give him a proper send off. I'm not saying it's very likely but it's a potential factor. Especially with Torts washing his hands of Philly's remaining season and giving the assistant coaches a shot at practicing being a head coach.

Part of it is I'm just scraping for hope. This kind of reverse playoff bubble uncertainty where we're hoping the team doesn't claw their way to lower odds and a lower guaranteed pick.

6th overall wouldn't be some Greek tragedy by any means as Benson and Smith still have strong potential but require more work and development to get there. Idk. Right now, with Vegas comfortably clinched, the only thing I care about in hockey at the moment is seeing the Ducks get as high a pick as possible.

smith or benson wouldn't be bad picks at all, but i'd be lying if i said i wouldn't be very much disappointed having to pick between those two instead of fantilli or carlsson. dropping all the way down to 6th overall after this horrendous season would be the most ducks thing ever

 

[Kalv]

Wow, ha

 

[Static]

That is embarrassing. God this losing shit on purpose is awful

 

[Terry Yake]

i understand the frustration 100% and get where he's coming from, but does that guy really think players are going to purposely play like shit just for the team (that they may not be playing for next season) to maybe get a higher pick?

players don't tank

 

[Vipers31]

Russia confiscates passports of senior officials to stop defections

Kremlin tightens Soviet-era travel restrictions in ‘sensitive’ areas

www.ft.com

FSB (former KGB) now confiscating the passports of current government officials -- to prevent defections.

I don’t see that meaning much for Michkov. There is an obvious political interest for Russia‘s power apparatus to prevent defections of insiders. With public figures (who the general population cares about), it’s a different situation. I don’t believe Putin and the oligarchs he at least partially serves have an interest in pissing off public figures, like one who could well be the face of the national sport for the next couple decades. They’d certainly love to see someone like that stay in Russia as a symbol of independence and strength of the national league and will probably encourage it financially, but if he wants to go, I’ll stick with my projection that he’ll get to do that. I’d say they’d rather get to continue doing photo ops like with Ovie, with no worries about critical commentary in foreign press. But, again, that’s just my take, and anybody can acknowledge that the level of risk involved is hard to project. Not going to blame anyone for not being willing to make that gamble with an asset as big as this pick, and I’m not sure I ultimately would, myself.

 

[Leonardo87]

i understand the frustration 100% and get where he's coming from, but does that guy really think players are going to purposely play like shit just for the team (that they may not be playing for next season) to maybe get a higher pick?

players don't tank

Players still have their pride, and they are also playing for contracts, jobs, and to better themselves. Why would they sabotage their career like that?

It’s one thing rooting for or being ok with a team loss, but to get mad at players for not tanking? That’s crossing the line, imho.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

smith or benson wouldn't be bad picks at all, but i'd be lying if i said i wouldn't be very much disappointed having to pick between those two instead of fantilli or carlsson. dropping all the way down to 6th overall after this horrendous season would be the most ducks thing ever

The craziest thing is that we didn't start falling off until after the TDL. Game 63 was the TDL.

Ducks	2022-23
2022-23	Games	W	L	OTL	Pts	Pts Pct		GF	GA	GD	GD/Game
Total	77​	23​	44​	10​	56​	36.4%​		195​	317​	-122​	-1.58​
1 to 25	25​	6​	16​	3​	15​	30.0%​		63​	105​	-42​	-1.68​
26 to 49	24​	9​	13​	2​	20​	41.7%​		60​	99​	-39​	-1.63​
50 to 62	13​	5​	5​	3​	13​	50.0%​		35​	51​	-16​	-1.23​
63 to 77	15​	3​	10​	2​	8​	26.7%​		37​	62​	-25​	-1.67​

In Klingberg's last 10 games (Game Set 50-62), he was a better two-way player and scorer: 9 pts and only a -2 rating.

We started giving up about half-a-point per game after the TDL. Big note is we lost Rico before the TDL to injury on game 58 and he hasn't been seen since. The loss of the two defensemen now truly exposes how weak our blueline is today.

Ducks	2022-23	Special	Teams
Game Set	Games	PPG	PPO	PP Eff		PK GA	TSH	PK Eff
Total	77	34	214	15.9%		70	255	72.5%
Gm 1-25	25	12	72	16.7%		31	89	65.2%
Gm 26-49	24	11	69	15.9%		17	81	79.0%
Gm 50-62	13	5	38	13.2%		10	47	78.7%
Gm 63 - 77	15	6	35	17.1%		12	38	68.4%

The loss Kulikov seemed to have a strong effect on the PK unit. The loss of Klingberg on the PP unit has taken a little surge, which is weird.

Verbeek did help the tank a lot by trading away Klingberg and Kulikov, despite not bringing back a lot of value. No more overachieving for Anaheim!

Although I wouldn't mind at all with either Smith or Benson at pick 5 or 6, but I'd prefer to land in the top-4 range. So far, we're the 2nd worst team in the league due to the TDL moves.

 

[Gliff]

Wow, ha

Pretty embarrassing that someone in the industry doesn't understand that players dont tank.

 

[HanSolo]

smith or benson wouldn't be bad picks at all, but i'd be lying if i said i wouldn't be very much disappointed having to pick between those two instead of fantilli or carlsson. dropping all the way down to 6th overall after this horrendous season would be the most ducks thing ever

Definitely agree. And I mean, it's not like the Ducks have historically relied on draft handouts to stay successful. As in stockpiling 1st-5th overall picks. Definitely got by on some great drafting. But we've drafted top 3 what, 3 times since 1992? Even Paul Kariya was a fourth overall pick. Outside of that it's been getting great value from our picks mid first round and beyond.

I think we're karmically due. I keep praying we have our ball picked and get Bedard or Fantilli, but odds are it'll be something stupid like Philly and Detroit go 1 and 2 and we drop 2 spots.

 

[Kalv]

Pretty embarrassing that someone in the industry doesn't understand that players dont tank.

I generally like Portzline but yeah, I was scratching my head as well. People have jobs on the line not only on but off the ice, they do not care about tanking one bit like some fans do. There is also a pride of doing your job well...

I like that Verbeek at least acknowledged that and said he would not ever ask us to lose. I don't think he put together the best lineup he could for this season to begin with, but tht's a different story

 

[Terry Yake]

Definitely agree. And I mean, it's not like the Ducks have historically relied on draft handouts to stay successful. As in stockpiling 1st-5th overall picks. Definitely got by on some great drafting. But we've drafted top 3 what, 3 times since 1992? Even Paul Kariya was a fourth overall pick. Outside of that it's been getting great value from our picks mid first round and beyond.

I think we're karmically due. I keep praying we have our ball picked and get Bedard or Fantilli, but odds are it'll be something stupid like Philly and Detroit go 1 and 2 and we drop 2 spots.

ducks and panthers flipped a coin to see who would draft #1 in 1994 and of course the ducks lost

they've never had any luck with the lottery their entire history

 

[HanSolo]

Pretty embarrassing that someone in the industry doesn't understand that players dont tank.

All I'm thinking after reading his 5 tweet rant is "cry me a river, whose fault is it that Columbus is bad at drafting?" I mean looking at their draft history it's kind of amazing how bad they've been at least in the first round.

Outside of Voracek, Johansen, Wennberg, Nash, and pre-injury Murray it's a history of whiffed first rounders.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

ducks and panthers flipped a coin to see who would draft #1 in 1994 and of course the ducks lost

they've never had any luck with the lottery their entire history

We ended up with Teemu via that pick. One might say it was an indirect win.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

I don’t see that meaning much for Michkov. There is an obvious political interest for Russia‘s power apparatus to prevent defections of insiders. With public figures (who the general population cares about), it’s a different situation. I don’t believe Putin and the oligarchs he at least partially serves have an interest in pissing off public figures, like one who could well be the face of the national sport for the next couple decades. They’d certainly love to see someone like that stay in Russia as a symbol of independence and strength of the national league and will probably encourage it financially, but if he wants to go, I’ll stick with my projection that he’ll get to do that. I’d say they’d rather get to continue doing photo ops like with Ovie, with no worries about critical commentary in foreign press. But, again, that’s just my take, and anybody can acknowledge that the level of risk involved is hard to project. Not going to blame anyone for not being willing to make that gamble with an asset as big as this pick, and I’m not sure I ultimately would, myself.

When was the last time that happened in Russia? Do you know? I do. And it wasn't all that long ago that public figures were more strictly controlled than workaday soviet citizens.

Anyway my point isn't that Michkov is akin to a government official, it's that the situation in Russia should be viewed as a trajectory rather than a static bubble and this is more evidence of that. I don't know whether it'll ultimately matter for this kid but I wouldn't risk it because I think in Russia (and everywhere, really) things are going to get much, much worse before they improve.

If I had to put a number on it, I think I'd say there's a 1 in 6 or 7 chance that he never comes over. A small minority outcome but a legit risk and I wouldn't bet a high pick in a year like this on it.

 

[Vipers31]

When was the last time that happened in Russia? Do you know? I do. And it wasn't all that long ago that public figures were more strictly controlled than workaday soviet citizens.

Anyway my point isn't that Michkov is akin to a government official, it's that the situation in Russia should be viewed as a trajectory rather than a static bubble and this is more evidence of that. I don't know whether it'll ultimately matter for this kid but I wouldn't risk it because I think in Russia (and everywhere, really) things are going to get much, much worse before they improve.

If I had to put a number on it, I think I'd say there's a 1 in 6 or 7 chance that he never comes over. A small minority outcome but a legit risk and I wouldn't bet a high pick in a year like this on it.

Yeah, that is entirely fair and I agree with virtually all of it, in particular the bolded parts (well, the last one I can sympathize with, whether I’d ultimately take the risk depends on where we end up picking and how my scouting team would feel about who’s available then compared to him).

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Some people seem to love the idea of trading up or down every year. If we end up at 4 and PV wants to pass on Michkov, that's fine. But he should not trade that pick. Just take who they like next best.

 

[Ducks DVM]

Some people seem to love the idea of trading up or down every year. If we end up at 4 and PV wants to pass on Michkov, that's fine. But he should not trade that pick. Just take who they like next best.

Agreed, but if they like all of the next 3 players and the teams at picks 4-7 really want Michkov and are willing to throw in any asset whatsoever, it makes sense to try to trade the pick.

A lot of if’s there.

 

[DuckDuckGetz]

Some people seem to love the idea of trading up or down every year. If we end up at 4 and PV wants to pass on Michkov, that's fine. But he should not trade that pick. Just take who they like next best.

Yeah in what is a very all-over-the-place draft past the top 2, I wouldn’t take any chances.

 

[Rasp]

I want Michkov but I dont want to stress for years while we wait to see if he makes it over while the political landscape leading up to it is deteriorating.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Agreed, but if they like all of the next 3 players and the teams at picks 4-7 really want Michkov and are willing to throw in any asset whatsoever, it makes sense to try to trade the pick.

A lot of if’s there.

The biggest "if" there is IF they like the next 3 guys equally. I really have to doubt it. While nothing is obviously a sure thing, this is where your scouts have to earn their pay, at the top of the draft. And as long as there is the one guy you want at 5, then you don't trade down.

A good GM always listens to offers on any asset. I just cannot see them having no preference after the top 4. If anything this year's draft probably lets them spend more time focusing more from 5 down. At this point Bedard is going 1 to any team. If PV doesn't want Michkov he just has to decide between Fantilli and Carlsson for 2 or 3. How much more time do they really need to make that decision? So, from 5 on is where they should have been spending a lot of time deciding and perhaps watching more games than on any of the top 4.

The fun part of all these annual prospect rankings is down the road when so many "mistakes" are found to be made. How pissed were the Avs when they had the 48 point season, lost all the lottos and still ended up with the best player at 4? And if they had won the lotto they would not have the best player in that draft. LoL! Zegras falling to 9? Fowler to 12? Good times! Good times!

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Agreed, but if they like all of the next 3 players and the teams at picks 4-7 really want Michkov and are willing to throw in any asset whatsoever, it makes sense to try to trade the pick.

A lot of if’s there.

I dunno if teams will divulge who they want to draft if they want to trade up. They could move up so they too can avoid drafting Michkov.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Some people seem to love the idea of trading up or down every year. If we end up at 4 and PV wants to pass on Michkov, that's fine. But he should not trade that pick. Just take who they like next best.

I think PV should def see what type of value it has, this all assumes we end up 4th. It depends on what the value of the pick if a trade is made .

If michkov is the 2nd best player in the draft(and could be argued into bedard tier talent or a tier below him and above carlsson/fantilli), there is a chance that pick ends up pretty valuable.

someone in that 6-12 range wants to pay a premium to move up, why wouldn’t you consider. Obviously depends on how our list looks I mean for all I know smith is 2nd on our scouts boards.