I think that’s fair, and agree.
Vegas gives them the 8th best chances to win a Cup so that seems in line too. 7 younger ‘on the rise’ type teams ahead of them and if they fail or something breaks our way (like Conn Smythe level goaltending) then we’re up next.
Even if the Bruins brought back the exact same team they had after the deadline and they all had equally good seasons they would almost certainly still finish 20ish points lower in the standings. They were the 2001 Seattle Mariners. Literally everything that could go right went right. They were an anomaly, an extreme case that happens every 30-40 years or so. They were the tail on the positive end of the Bell Curve.
But they're not bringing back that team, they're bringing back an obviously worse team even if Krejci and Bergeron both come back. And if Krejci goes they're losing their #2 center. Bergeron their #1 center and Selke winner. Combined with Hall being gone and that's a devastating downgrade for any team.
I don't think that team definitely makes the playoffs even with great goaltending. Probably/possibly, but not definitely. With just good goaltending they're more likely to miss. This is why Bergeron is so important for them. Even at his age he's still really good.
But Bergy or not, if they have even a little bad luck---via bad bounces, bad injuries, bad reffing, bad anything that can be the difference on a nightly basis---they might keep their first round pick.
What happens if McAvoy misses 65 games? Pasta? Marchand? They're sort of overdue for something like that, which is terrifying for a top heavy team minus 5 million in cap space. It's why they're signing a bunch of old veterans and bottom of the roster young guys. They're throwing so many cheap darts because they know they have huge gaps and few ways to fill them.
Another season with two goalies playing at a Vezina level will certainly fix a lot of problems, but what happens when the post-season starts? Again and again we see why that doesn't work in the playoffs. Big holes become big traps.
The most positive thing I can say for the Bruins is that year after year I can clearly see their issues, but I always underestimate other teams' own. It's a blindspot for me which leads me to think the Bruins are in a worse spot than they are. I always forget other organizations have just as many problems.
So maybe they'll be "fine," but I see few reasons to think they're a top contender even if they have a better season that I expect. Vegas's line merely reflects how the general public views the Bruins, and they're only going to see the points record last year without context.