This is exactly what I'm pencilling in for the top nine forwards and the top four defenseman.
I think your 4th line is going to be Lucic - Brown - Lauko with opportunities for McLaughlin, Beecher and Merkulov to beat out Brown. I hope one of them does...
Forbort and Shattenkirk is more than likely the bottom pair but I'm not ruling out Forbort being waived and given the "Mike Reilly" treatment if he isn't claimed. I guess that all depends if Zboril impresses.
I'm keeping my eye on Winnipeg, I think they need to move a defenseman they have Capobianco, Stanley and Chisholm as their 7-9. Logan Stanley requested a trade and so I think he could be on the move soon unless they feel like they can slip him through waivers...he'd provide some much needed physicality and toughness
How I read the tea leaves:
Merkulov isn’t a fourth line guy. If he’s going win a job it’s a center or wing on the second or third lines. Moving Coyle or JVR down, and Geekie down to the 4C. It could happen for sure.
Brown is there as insurance in case Beecher or McLaughlin can’t win the 4C job, or Merk doesn’t win a top 9 role and Geekie has to slot on the third.
Everyone is writing Lauko in in pen (funny - imagine anyone possibly predicting that last year) but there are a few guys competing with him for a job too, including Beecher and McLaughlin. Though I think Lauko is 13F at worst. Greer seems destined for Providence - or at least we should hope he is because that means someone has stepped up.
Bergeron being back at the beginning of the season takes that top 9 slot away, and puts Merk v. JVR as a head to head battle. Krejci back puts Merk in Providence.
Lohrei has to beat out Grizz or Forbort. I’d play a wet paper bag over Forbort, but they value a LH PK role more than I would, so Lohrei only beats out Forbort if they think he can PK. Probably puts Lindholm as PK1 which isn’t ideal, but it has to happen this year or next. There’s a chance Zboril could beat out Forbort (I’d play him over potato hands every day of the week) but I think it’s more likely that Lohrei does. Shattenkirk is safe IMO - and a great partner to break in a rookie. Mitchell and the other kids could compete for a 7 or 8D spot, but more likely they’re there for sorely needed RHD depth in the A.
My feelings on Grizz don’t need to be rehashed obviously, but Lohrei could beat Grizz out and make him expendable. But in the near term, that’s to 7D. No room out there to get any sort of reasonable return for him. He’s worth more than some throw away fourth round pick in a normal cap situation, and would return far more than that at the deadline. Despite my feelings about him, if he’s going to be benched for Clifton or potato hands in the playoffs, may as well deal him. But no way you give him away.
Longshots to steal a slot (like Lauko last year, before anyone says it can’t happen) would be Toporowski or Poitras. But the chance that they toss a 19 year old into a top 6 center slot seem remote. And there’s always a chance (either because of injury or because Hellebuyck gets dealt and the goalie carousel that everyone predicted actually happens) that a backstop is moved, but absent that there’s no reason to sell low there.
People seem to like to take past performance as static, and don’t allow for any growth or leaps from the young guys. I can guarantee there’s nothing the Boston brass would like more than to have to put Brown on the bench or in Provy, or to waive JVR because he was beaten out. And there are 5-6 young players who have opportunity - something that hasn’t been around for a while.