2023 NHL Entry Draft

[jellybeans]

Avoid Michkov....if he isn't in Buffalo for workout evaluations and draft day in Nashville.

Don't care about that all that counts is he shows up in 3 years.

 

[Electronic83]

As far as I remember there was Russian at draft last year.
Yurov is one of them and after search Mirochenko was there too. He might be here, might be not, that father incident might play a lot in that.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Don't care about that all that counts is he shows up in 3 years.

Even if you hit a home run with your prospects, you generally have to wait 3-4 years until you reap the benefits anyways. Only exceptions are Matthewses and McDavidses.

The only factor, as you point out, is if he actually shows up. Dvorsky won't be a better player than him probably ever, and certainly you're not gaining anything of value in those 3 years.

 

[WeThreeKings]

That being said, I would not at all be surprised if we went with Dvorsky. One quote from Bobrov sticks out in my mind, when he was talking about Owen Beck as a guy who ''just does stuff that wins cups.''

I thought that was a pretty dramatic thing to say about a guy who had just turned 18, but if he says it about Beck with his record at that point, he obviously thinks it about Dvo.

How many guys do you get who do things that win cups before they'd realize that someone needs to put the puck in the net, cause that also wins cups.

They should be looking high offensive tools first, which is pretty obvious at 5, but becomes murky at 6+.

Reinbacher also does things that wins cups.

A lot of debate that could be focused more if the NHL did the lottery at a time that makes sense.

 

[NotProkofievian]

How many guys do you get who do things that win cups before they'd realize that someone needs to put the puck in the net, cause that also wins cups.

They should be looking high offensive tools first, which is pretty obvious at 5, but becomes murky at 6+.

Reinbacher also does things that wins cups.

A lot of debate that could be focused more if the NHL did the lottery at a time that makes sense.

Agreed. The other thing is that I think we might be ignoring production. We did it with Slaf, and Mesar and Beck. Might do with Dvorsky and again with our 17th pick. Basically, all of our early picks might be guys who have no real track record of offensive dominance to their name.

You might be a good scout, but if you bet against NHLe not just often, but as a matter of course you're asking for it, IMO.

 

[phillytennis]

Michkov or bust at 5 if he's available. I don't care if he comes to the combine or the draft. Give him a physical in Russia if you have too, I'm sure Molson can afford to send people out there.

All of you seem way too comfortable being the team that watches Michkov score 90+ points on another team a few years from now.

We can't to waste a 5th overall pick...better options available.

 

[waitin425]

If the hockey gods offered us a lottery win May 8th, but only if the Leafs win the Cup.....would you take it?

 

[phillytennis]

He is 100% not going to be there

If he isn't at the draft, he won't be drafted in the top 15.

 

[Jaynki]

This fanbase would burn down Hughes house if he selects Dvorsky before Michkov / Smith

Pretty normal. What is exciting in a guy who has 1C potential after all?

By the way remember how people were making fun of Slafkovsky because he dominated in a tournament against men from Denmark / Kazakhstan?

Now the same people want to draft Smith over Fantili / Carlsson / Michkov becauase he dominted against kids from Norway and Latvia on a stacked USA team.

Are you surprised?

It has nothing to do with the accomplishment of the player.

It has everything to do with a bias in favour of Smith and a bias in favour of Wright.

 

[Jaynki]

Agreed. The other thing is that I think we might be ignoring production. We did it with Slaf, and Mesar and Beck. Might do with Dvorsky and again with our 17th pick. Basically, all of our early picks might be guys who have no real track record of offensive dominance to their name.

You might be a good scout, but if you bet against NHLe not just often, but as a matter of course you're asking for it, IMO.

Slafkovsky dominated the J16 as a 14yo, dominated the J18 as a 15yo, dominated the J20 as a 16 and 17yo. Also dominated the hlinka, the olympic games and the world cup and played at a very good level in the liiga despite a lower end production... -> no real track record of offensive production.

Same story with Dvorsky, has obliterated every junior league since he is 14, over 2PPG in the J20 this year, totally obliterate the U18 and is carrying the load on himself.

If anything, they have strong track record of offensive production well before their draft year.

 

[phillytennis]

This fanbase would burn down Hughes house if he selects Dvorsky before Michkov / Smith

TSN commentator Dave Reid mentioned that Dvorsky is having a great u18 tournament..."he has all the tools to become become an outstanding NHL player"...he expects him to drafted early...4, 5 or 6.

 

[phillytennis]

This fanbase would burn down Hughes house if he selects Dvorsky before Michkov / Smith

Too many question marks regarding Michkov...I would prefer Dvorsky...showing increased progression...he's talented and physical!!!

 

[NotProkofievian]

Slafkovsky dominated the J16 as a 14yo, dominated the J18 as a 15yo, dominated the J20 as a 16 and 17yo. Also dominated the hlinka, the olympic games and the world cup and played at a very good level in the liiga despite a lower end production... -> no real track record of offensive production.

Same story with Dvorsky, has obliterated every junior league since he is 14, over 2PPG in the J20 this year, totally obliterate the U18 and is carrying the load on himself.

If anything, they have strong track record of offensive production well before their draft year.

That's not what I mean, and the fact that you have to bring up Czech U16 kinda reinforces my point. It's almost silly to talk about Czech U16. The NHLe multiplier for that league is probably something like 0.01. Slaf was 12th in PPG that year, and was like 45th in scoring, in what sense is that dominance?

Dalibor has good junior numbers, but nothing unheard of, and not close to anything you would call dominance. You can say ''21 points in 10 games'' but that's 10 games, and 2ppg in J20 is a lot closer to 2ppg in the BCHL than in the CHL.

And most importantly at any real level of play, like where men are being paid and this is their day job, none of these players have dominated.

 

[Jaynki]

That's not what I mean, and the fact that you have to bring up Czech U16 kinda reinforces my point. It's almost silly to talk about Czech U16. The NHLe multiplier for that league is probably something like 0.01. Slaf was 12th in PPG that year, and was like 45th in scoring, in what sense is that dominance?

Dalibor has good junior numbers, but nothing unheard of, and not close to anything you would call dominance. You can say ''21 points in 10 games'' but that's 10 games, and 2ppg in J20 is a lot closer to 2ppg in the BCHL than in the CHL.

And most importantly at any real level of play, like where men are being paid and this is their day job, none of these players have dominated.

Its sure that these league are not stronger than the CHL, but there is no point in denying their performance there. Many first round pick, in demand player, like Noah Ostlund and Liam Ohgren in 2022, have been picked out of these league. In fact, i believe these leagues produce more first round pick than the QMJHL. Would have to run the data but it has to be close.

 

[phillytennis]

My top 7:
1. Bédard
2. Fantilli
3. Carlsson
4. Smith
5. Dvorsky
6. Leonard
7. Reinbacher

 

[NotProkofievian]

Its sure that these league are not stronger than the CHL, but there is no point in denying their performance there. Many first round pick, in demand player, like Noah Ostlund and Liam Ohgren in 2022, have been picked out of these league. In fact, i believe these leagues produce more first round pick than the QMJHL. Would have to run the data but it has to be close.

I have nothing against picking a player from any of these leagues. And I have nothing against the production such as it is, but it does have a relative value that we can measure, and it is what it is. NHLe is far from perfect but it does tell us a bit about where a prospect is at in their development.

If we pick Dvorsky, it's more than likely that he would struggle in the NHL in his first year, perhaps even more than Slaf did. If we do pick him, just leave him be for a year and then reevaluate is my point.

 

[phillytennis]

8. Benson

 

[Jaynki]

I have nothing against picking a player from any of these leagues. And I have nothing against the production such as it is, but it does have a relative value that we can measure, and it is what it is. NHLe is far from perfect but it does tell us a bit about where a prospect is at in their development.

If we pick Dvorsky, it's more than likely that he would struggle in the NHL in his first year, perhaps even more than Slaf did. If we do pick him, just leave him be for a year and then reevaluate is my point.

I agree with your last paragraph. I doubt Dvorsky is NHL ready and Slafkovsky had a stronger draft profile. What i wanted to counter argue was that he did not have a good offensive track record.

 

[NotProkofievian]

I agree with your last paragraph. I doubt Dvorsky is NHL ready and Slafkovsky had a stronger draft profile. What i wanted to counter argue was that he did not have a good offensive track record.

I said ''a real track record of offensive dominance,'' not good.

 

[McGuires Corndog]

If the hockey gods offered us a lottery win May 8th, but only if the Leafs win the Cup.....would you take it?

Yes.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Concerning your first paragraph, i do agree that a strong league production is important, although Dvorsky was impressive at the U18. What Slafkovsky did was completely on another level. We can't put it under the blanket or ignore such a performance, its a 1% thing for every 17yo in history. (Im not arguing this for Dvorsky tho. I will simply say that he has shown to be very dominant against his peers, which is to be expected for a top 10 pick.) We can't base our analysis on one or the other. We have to look at the whole picture.

Why has Slafkovsky not produced in Liiga? Why has he produce in international play? Evaluating an 18YO in a mens league is way different than evaluating a guy in the CHL or the USNTDP. The standard and parameter are just completely different.

Now concerning your last paragraph. I absolutely agree with you on what the Habs need. I think in 2022 they swang for the fences with Slafkovsky, no? Now in 2023, let's say we pick 5 and Smith and Dvorsky are both available. I think and hope we go with Smith. But i also think we should keep an open mind and not label and limit Dvorsky as a pragmatic 200ft player. There is strong top 6C upside there and legitimate 1C upside. He could be that homerun pick we need.

Since you've made a reference to analysis. I do technical and fundamental analysis in stocks for a living. Junior stock trader want to make 300% and they are risking a too big part of their portfolio to do so. Professional stock trader want to make 7-8% while risking 1-2% of their portfolio. Junior hockey player want to dangles everyone and make highlights reels. Professional hockey player make the simple, high percentage play. I believe Dvorsky plays the game like a pro but is generating a lot of offense doing so, it just isnt sexy. Like trading like a pro is boring as f***. But its what gives the fortune in the end.

It was very impressive, and without it Slaf wouldn't have been picked first. I argued against Ryan Bader's use of statistics for ignoring it last year.

But you have to understand, the best 8 games in the world is 8 games all the same. All kinds of things happen in small samples. We had a guy in here earlier saying Sale deserved top 3 consideration because he was PPG in Extraliga....after 5 games lol.

 

[Deebs]

If the hockey gods offered us a lottery win May 8th, but only if the Leafs win the Cup.....would you take it?

All day, everyday

 

[McGees]

This fanbase would burn down Hughes house if he selects Dvorsky before Michkov / Smith

Hughes didn’t care when 20k fans came in to the Bell Centre with Wright jerseys so I doubt he’ll care what fans think this year. Also those same fans embraced Slaf pretty quick (except ReHabs)

Also if theres no QC player option, the general fan doesn’t care too much lol.

 

[Sam de Mtl]

If the hockey gods offered us a lottery win May 8th, but only if the Leafs win the Cup.....would you take it?

Easily. This summer would be mildly annoying and maybe I would avoid these boards a little, but I care about Montreal first and foremost.

That is why ultimately I want Florida to lose this year more than Toronto. Even though in my heart Toronto losing is more enjoyable.

 

[AHShadow]

If the hockey gods offered us a lottery win May 8th, but only if the Leafs win the Cup.....would you take it?

Only people that would refuse this offer are the same that would rather make 50K a year if everyone they knew made 25K a year instead of making 100K a year and everyone else making 200K a year.

You take Bedard and don't look back twice.