2023 NHL Entry Draft

[NotProkofievian]

If we end up spending all of our first picks on euros with mediocre to bad production I think that's probably going to be bad.

 

[phillytennis]

I think with this tournament, Dvorsky certainly cemented his spot in the Top 10 (if he wasn't already). He was more impressive than Sale for sure.

I don't think Sale hurt his stock either, but he didn't improve it if that makes sense. He's pretty much what I thought he was. Great speed and skills.

Agreed....if Sale is available at 17...strong argument for taking him...big, strong, good skater and he has a great shot.
Imagine selecting Dvorsky and Sale...both were the best player for their national u18 team.

 

[phillytennis]

So Dvorsky's projection has a total range of about 10 points? Wow, such precision.

Dvorsky played really well considering his linemates weren't great. The problem with Dvorsky is his speed, as lack of speed.
I do like his compete level.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Dvorsky played really well considering his linemates weren't great. The problem with Dvorsky is his speed, as lack of speed.
I do like his compete level.

He absolutely has played very well, and answered a lot of questions that I had about him (some even in real time).

But a player projection range of 10 points is silly. Actual 70 point players' output varies by more than that from season to season, whereas even great prospects can bust and disappoint.

 

[ReHabs]

Have you been watching the tournament? Genuine question.
Does Smith have the better offensive skills? Yes

Will Dvorsky end up being the better hockey player? Maybe.

How much more offense and speed (first step) can you get out of Dvorsky???

Can Will Smith handle a market like Montreal, especially if he isn't scoring???

I have not, I don’t watch amateur hockey generally. Too old, too many responsibilities, not enough interest.

My argument against Will Smith is contained entirely within the player’s name. That’s not a hockey name.

My argument against Dvorsky is contextual, I don’t like his player profile and I don’t like having three Slovaks as our three highest draft picks in two years.

To add to your questions:
1. Draft first round forwards for their offensive skills, defensive skills are easier to come by
2. We don’t know the answer to that. Draft the most skilled forward to hedge your bets.
3. Dvorsky doesn’t seem very productive in league play… are we going to double down on that again? Slafkovsky hasn’t proven the point.
4. This is an inane question.

CC @Schooner Guy

That's true for all prospects. Lol

Indeed it is. So the midpoint between Bust (0) and a 60pt upside player is 30pts whilst the midpoint between Bust and a 80pt upside player is 40pts.

Obviously this is a facetious bit of analysis but the point is clear: projecting downsides is much more precarious, so it’s better to look at the upside when evaluating prospects. If a set of certain players are hard to choose between, you go with the one with the highest upside. It’s much better in the long run.

this is all hilariously antipragmatic

The Habs have been hilariously bad at being pragmatic.

With the top1/2/3 pick you go with the surest thing. With every other pick you’re meant to swing for the fences. Going for the steady player with first round picks is asinine — you can get steady NHL players on the trade and free agency market easily or as overagers or from overseas.

To me it is self-sabotage to draft 200ft players when there are much more creative and skilled forwards on the board. You can teach defence, you cannot teach talent.

 

[phillytennis]

Everybody's has been saying that the Habs need high end elite talent...Will Smith is that player...better offensively than Dvorsky, Leonard and Moore.
If he is available at pick...5, 6 or 7...pick him and don't hesitate.

 

[Pacciosoftie]

Everybody's has been saying that the Habs need high end elite talent...Will Smith is that player...better offensively than Dvorsky, Leonard and Moore.
If he is available at pick...5, 6 or 7...pick him and don't hesitate.

What if it’s between him and Michkov?

 

[Michoulicious]

What if it’s between him and Michkov?

I don't see how he's still there at 6 or 7.

5 maybe if someone picks Michkov in the top 4.

I don't see any team taking the small probable winger in Benson over the taller center in Smith.

I expect Benson to fall in draft day vs these boards draft expectations. The NHL Central Scouting most recent list points towards that, and recent drafting trends as well.

It looks less and less likely that we'll have the opportunity to draft Smith, which is a shame.

I think the big centers will go first after Bedard (Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith, Dvorsky), then probably the big RD (Reinbacher)... Then we'll see the wingers come in... The obvious x factor is when Michkov gets picked.

He's a top 2-3 talent, but many teams will not draft him top 4 if there is an ounce of uncertainty with him, especially with so much talent in the top 4.

 

[Seb]

Where would Mesar, Beck and Hutson rank this year?

 

[jellybeans]

What if it’s between him and Michkov?

If Michkov is available they have to pick him.

Where would Mesar, Beck and Hutson rank this year?

I would say Mesar and Beck 2nd round and Hutson first round top 10.

 

[McGuires Corndog]

I don't see how he's still there at 6 or 7.

5 maybe if someone picks Michkov in the top 4.

I don't see any team taking the small probable winger in Benson over the taller center in Smith.

I expect Benson to fall in draft day vs these boards draft expectations. The NHL Central Scouting most recent list points towards that, and recent drafting trends as well.

It looks less and less likely that we'll have the opportunity to draft Smith, which is a shame.

I think the big centers will go first after Bedard (Fantilli, Carlsson, Smith, Dvorsky), then probably the big RD (Reinbacher)... Then we'll see the wingers come in... The obvious x factor is when Michkov gets picked.

He's a top 2-3 talent, but many teams will not draft him top 4 if there is an ounce of uncertainty with him, especially with so much talent in the top 4.

This is probably the most realistic prediction of how draft day will unfold.

I think you nailed it, the wild card is Michkov. Benson likely falls on draft day like you said.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Grant had him ranked mid 1st for a while and expects him to get drafted 1st round. After his U18, I think its safe to say he wont last very long.

Trade back, get a 2nd and take him around 22nd potentially ?

Seems like there's another solid group from around 17th to at least the early 2nd round.

I guess that also depends on who falls.

 

[jrom]

Wilde sorts prospects by their PPG basically.

Only thing dumber would be to create an analytical “model” based on that (Byron Bader enters the chat)

 

[Goldenhands]

Trade back, get a 2nd and take him around 22nd potentially ?

Seems like there's another solid group from around 17th to at least the early 2nd round.

I guess that also depends on who falls.

I would rather keep 17 and draft one of Stenberg, Brindley, Perreault. If we get a another 1st, Edstrom is someone I would target, especially if we ended up not drafting Dvorsky.

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

Wilde sorts prospects by their PPG basically.

Tbh you would probably end up above the 50th percentile drafting-wise league wide by just doing that. Didn't someone try that with Vancouver to see how they'd have done?

 

[calder candidate]

Tbh you would probably end up above the 50th percentile drafting-wise league wide by just doing that. Didn't someone try that with Vancouver to see how they'd have done?

Yes, They took the highest goal scoring CHL player and they did a lot better than the actual results.

 

[Vachon23]

Safe to say he would’ve scored at least 4 goals in the 36 games he missed this season lol.

Not saying he can’t score 40, I’m 100 % confident he can do that but before calling him a easy 40 goals scorer, he will need to do it once

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

I have not, I don’t watch amateur hockey generally. Too old, too many responsibilities, not enough interest.

My argument against Will Smith is contained entirely within the player’s name. That’s not a hockey name.

My argument against Dvorsky is contextual, I don’t like his player profile and I don’t like having three Slovaks as our three highest draft picks in two years.

To add to your questions:
1. Draft first round forwards for their offensive skills, defensive skills are easier to come by
2. We don’t know the answer to that. Draft the most skilled forward to hedge your bets.
3. Dvorsky doesn’t seem very productive in league play… are we going to double down on that again? Slafkovsky hasn’t proven the point.
4. This is an inane question.

CC @Schooner Guy


Indeed it is. So the midpoint between Bust (0) and a 60pt upside player is 30pts whilst the midpoint between Bust and a 80pt upside player is 40pts.

Obviously this is a facetious bit of analysis but the point is clear: projecting downsides is much more precarious, so it’s better to look at the upside when evaluating prospects. If a set of certain players are hard to choose between, you go with the one with the highest upside. It’s much better in the long run.


The Habs have been hilariously bad at being pragmatic.

With the top1/2/3 pick you go with the surest thing. With every other pick you’re meant to swing for the fences. Going for the steady player with first round picks is asinine — you can get steady NHL players on the trade and free agency market easily or as overagers or from overseas.

To me it is self-sabotage to draft 200ft players when there are much more creative and skilled forwards on the board. You can teach defence, you cannot teach talent.

Yeah shit hockey name is a real thing.

I half joke but only half joke.

Reinbacher? Didn’t even need to watch vids on him

 

[_vivelequebec_]

Where would Mesar, Beck and Hutson rank this year?

Hutson top 15, Beck late first, Mesar late second

 

[phillytennis]

If Michkov is available they have to pick him.


I would say Mesar and Beck 2nd round and Hutson first round top 10.

Avoid Michkov....if he isn't in Buffalo for workout evaluations and draft day in Nashville.

 

[Skip Bayless]

I like Wallinder a lot. I would actually grab him at 17 even if Redenbacher is there.

 

[Jack Skellington]

I would take Michkov at 3 after Bedard and Carlson if Bobrov and the boys felt like they could get him over here. I really don’t care about the risk, I just want the best player. Won’t be mad at all if they take him and it doesn’t work out, but my job isn’t on the line so it’s pretty easy for me to say.

To me, the odds of Michkov playing in the NHL are somewhere around 80 percent and the odds of him being a superstar are around 80 percent, whereas any of the guys after the top 3, the chance of them being in the NHL is obviously close to 100 but I don’t see anyone other than Bedard/Michkov that I have absolute confidence in.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Avoid Michkov....if he isn't in Buffalo for workout evaluations and draft day in Nashville.

Combine meh

Draft is the key factor.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

I like Wallinder a lot. I would actually grab him at 17 even if Redenbacher is there.

Popcorn man won't be there.

 

[Lockin17]

I like Wallinder a lot. I would actually grab him at 17 even if Redenbacher is there.

what !!! no way