2023 NHL Entry Draft

[SOLR]

Musty is a turn over machine lot of of offensive upside but he will get destroyed in the upper levels of hockey.

He needs more years in the OHL, that's it.

 

[WinterLion]

I don't follow prospects or amateur hockey so that's why I asked but I define Bust Potential by a series of factors

1) streakiness in production -- does he score in spurts? is he impetuous or moody as a player?
2) manner of production -- what is the player's production ratio between EV : PP : PK?
3) utilization -- TOI and quality of opposition
4) physical and physiological attributes like skating stride, physical stature, etc.
5) "intangibles" (a very problematic aspect to define)
6) environment and status among his current peers

If a player is streaky, I think that contributes to his bust potential. If he doesn't produce at EV, same thing. If he's not trusted with TOI or important TOI, same thing. If he has a strange stride, I hold it against him. If he's not a 'Chad' or self-confident or if he's strange in any way, I hold it against him too (not on a personal level -- Lord knows hockey needs more variety and personalities, but it makes the player harder to understand for some of the NHL old boy dinosaurs). If he's not among the best of his division/league/environment, I hold that against the player too.

I have been following prospects for a very long time. I find the biggest factor for not making the NHL is not having at least ONE elite element to their game.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Musty seems destined to follow the Kaliyev/Zykov drop to 35-45 even though his stats and size say he should be top 15-20

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Musty seems destined to follow the Kaliyev/Zykov drop to 35-45 even though his stats and size say he should be top 15-20

If anything he should be a riser. He vastly improved his overall game in 2nd half, which coincided with a coaching change. Still think he goes 20-30 range.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Musty is a turn over machine lot of of offensive upside but he will get destroyed in the upper levels of hockey.

As would virtually every unfinished developmental project in the draft.

Most top junior scorers are turnover machines and are defensively challenged.....bit of a nothing burger to point it out.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

If anything he should be a riser. He vastly improved his overall game in 2nd half, which coincided with a coaching change. Still think he goes 20-30 range.

Musty could sneak into/around the top 10 and he could fall to the mid-late/end of the first round....this is the case with a surprising number of players this year.

I bet the internal debates among area scouts at NHL draft meetings are all over the map and as bipolar and heated as the debates on this board. This will be a very difficult draft to call due to such a range in opinion on so many top prospects.

 

[jellybeans]

As would virtually every unfinished developmental project in the draft.

Most top junior scorers are turnover machines and are defensively challenged.....bit of a nothing burger to point it out.

Ok sure.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Musty could sneak into/around the top 10 and he could fall to the mid-late/end of the first round....this is the case with a surprising number of players this year.

I bet the internal debates among area scouts at NHL draft meetings are all over the map and as bipolar and heated as the debates on this board. This will be a very difficult draft to call due to such a range in opinion on so many top prospects.

Yup, a lot of talented kids, but with warts whether that's poor skating, lack of size, or a seemingly lack of competitiveness. Think teams will have large variations as well.

Someone like Gracyn Sawchyn could definitely find himself in 1st round. Maybe Oskar Fisker Molgaard too. Beau Akey & Tanner Molendyk could end up in 1st round. Dragicevic 2nd round.

In a lot of drafts, smaller guys & poor skaters fall.

Moore & Leonard will definitely go top 10. I would take either of them at #5.

Benson, Smith, Moore, Leonard & Reinbacher are my top choices at #5 or #6, so just need to stay in top 8. A bottom 6 finish guarantees that.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

Yup, a lot of talented kids, but with warts whether that's poor skating, lack of size, or a seemingly lack of competitiveness. Think teams will have large variations as well.

Someone like Gracyn Sawchyn could definitely find himself in 1st round. Maybe Oskar Fisker Molgaard too. Beau Akey & Tanner Molendyk could end up in 1st round. Dragicevic 2nd round.

In a lot of drafts, smaller guys & poor skaters fall.

Moore & Leonard will definitely go top 10. I would take either of them at #5.

Benson, Smith, Moore, Leonard & Reinbacher are my top choices at #5 or #6, so just need to stay in top 8. A bottom 6 finish guarantees that.

I am hesitant to declare Moore or Leonard as locks to go in the top 10. They shouldn't stray too far due to their high floors but even if there is a strong possibility that they go in the top 10 there is also a real possibility that they do not.

 

[admiralcadillac]

1000% different.

AK was a reach in one of the best drafts of all time.

Slafkovsky was one of the top4 questionable picks in a weak draft (top-end weak at least)

Kostitsyn was not a reach what are you talking about. He was meant to be picked even higher before his epilepsy diagnosis.

 

[MasterD]

Kostitsyn was not a reach what are you talking about. He was meant to be picked even higher before his epilepsy diagnosis.

And yet he got an epilepsy diagnosis, and became a reach.
Call it a big question mark if you prefer.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

How do we define bust potential? How do we measure it?

I think the team drafting 2nd overall that will have to choose between them. Its a question of preference at this point and i believe at this point the interview processes and knowing the player deeper is becoming very important.

I’d say you define it by the amount of question marks a player has. Every player has questions marks, but some more than others. Carlsson coming over and adjusting to NA hockey and rink sizes is a question mark any European will have for example. For Fantilli the only real question I have is can he limit the mistakes he makes? I think it will come with maturation but to me that will be the difference between him being great but inconsistent or elite.

 

[Vachon23]

Who has the bigger bust potential between Carlsson and Fantilli?

The bust potential is EXTREMELY low for both but If I need to choose one, I would say Carlsson

 

[Hope Of Glory]

Yup, a lot of talented kids, but with warts whether that's poor skating, lack of size, or a seemingly lack of competitiveness. Think teams will have large variations as well.

Someone like Gracyn Sawchyn could definitely find himself in 1st round. Maybe Oskar Fisker Molgaard too. Beau Akey & Tanner Molendyk could end up in 1st round. Dragicevic 2nd round.

In a lot of drafts, smaller guys & poor skaters fall.

Moore & Leonard will definitely go top 10. I would take either of them at #5.

Benson, Smith, Moore, Leonard & Reinbacher are my top choices at #5 or #6, so just need to stay in top 8. A bottom 6 finish guarantees that.

Yup, a lot of talented kids, but with warts whether that's poor skating, lack of size, or a seemingly lack of competitiveness. Think teams will have large variations as well.

Someone like Gracyn Sawchyn could definitely find himself in 1st round. Maybe Oskar Fisker Molgaard too. Beau Akey & Tanner Molendyk could end up in 1st round. Dragicevic 2nd round.

In a lot of drafts, smaller guys & poor skaters fall.

Moore & Leonard will definitely go top 10. I would take either of them at #5.

Benson, Smith, Moore, Leonard & Reinbacher are my top choices at #5 or #6, so just need to stay in top 8. A bottom 6 finish guarantees that.

Moore is getting more love lately on this board. Did something change? I thought his lack of creativity and high end tools (outside of skating) made him a bit ofa reach at 5.

 

[McGees]

I have a feeling Dvorsky is gonna have a big U18s

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

I have a feeling Dvorsky is gonna have a big U18s

Really hope he does. Right now there are like a half dozen guys all in the same tier for me beyond the big 4, but Dvorsky is the guy who has a chance to really separate himself from that group if he can dominate the U18s.

 

[le_sean]

Really hope he does. Right now there are like a half dozen guys all in the same tier for me beyond the big 4, but Dvorsky is the guy who has a chance to really separate himself from that group if he can dominate the U18s.

Benson and Smith are a tier above. Dvorsky is in a 3rd tier.

Not sure the U-18 will change much. He’s shown he does well against his age group with the J20 in Sweden. That’s never been the question with him.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Benson and Smith are a tier above. Dvorsky is in a 3rd tier.

Not sure the U-18 will change much. He’s shown he does well against his age group with the J20 in Sweden. That’s never been the question with him.

Maybe in consensus view, but I disagree with that clearly…

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Moore is getting more love lately on this board. Did something change? I thought his lack of creativity and high end tools (outside of skating) made him a bit ofa reach at 5.

Well, if you read my posts, you'll know I've been loving him since before Christmas. He & Leonard have been on my list all year if we didn't draft top 4. Leonard was a beaut at last year's u18, as an underager.

I was talking up Moore in October, and had him ranked above Smith. Smith's season this year definitely surprised me. He had issues with pace, low motor etc on u17 team, and he & Moore were fairly equal stats wise.

Then Smith absolutely took off this year offensively.

 

[SlafySZN]

Who has the bigger bust potential between Carlsson and Fantilli?

Carlsson even if i like him.

I don’t think he will though.

 

[ginomini]

One thing about this year's draft compared to many years is that there are so many players with unclear/unlimited ceilings. It's a game of indentifying who will overcome his limitations. I feel like a lot of that evaluation goes down to interviews and personal preferences tho.

Last year, past the top 3 forwards, no one had much potential of being more than 60/70 pts forwards (Gauthier, Kasper, Savoie, Nazar, etc.) They may however have had higher floors than many of this years forwards (minus Leonard, Moore, Barlow).

But I feel like this year, any of Benson, Smith, Cristall, even Dvorsky, Musty and others could realistically absolutely take off and become prime PPG+ forwards.

Anyways, exciting draft for sure! I'm predicting that the re-draft in 1 year will be wildly different than the draft day ranking, more so than many years!

 

[Mrb1p]

Moore is getting more love lately on this board. Did something change? I thought his lack of creativity and high end tools (outside of skating) made him a bit ofa reach at 5.

He's been getting love all year around here, I think Im alone in the camp that doesn't like him much. Certainly not top 6, that's very rich for a guy like him, in such a draft.

One thing about this year's draft compared to many years is that there are so many players with unclear/unlimited ceilings. It's a game of indentifying who will overcome his limitations. I feel like a lot of that evaluation goes down to interviews and personal preferences tho.

Last year, past the top 3 forwards, no one had much potential of being more than 60/70 pts forwards (Gauthier, Kasper, Savoie, Nazar, etc.) They may however have had higher floors than many of this years forwards (minus Leonard, Moore, Barlow).

But I feel like this year, any of Benson, Smith, Cristall, even Dvorsky, Musty and others could realistically absolutely take off and become prime PPG+ forwards.

Anyways, exciting draft for sure! I'm predicting that the re-draft in 1 year will be wildly different than the draft day ranking, more so than many years!

Nazar and Savoie do have very high ceiling IMO, but it's true that there's a lot of offensive power in this draft and were about to get a hell of a player, or two. Just like last year to be fair, Slaf is an insane prospect and the sky is the limit for him. It's just a bit disappointing when you see other rebuilds start with Dahlin, Power, Stutzle, McDavid, Hughes, Makar, Mackinnon, Draisaitl, etc.

 

[MasterMatt25]

Especially if Florida makes the playoffs, I'd be shocked if we pick twice in the 1st round

 

[WeThreeKings]

I'm definitely on the other side of the debate.

We've seen Carlsson do something in a professional men's league. The bust factor is pretty low with him.. Fantilli is still playing against college athletes.

Fantilli shows some decision making and IQ flags.. where Carlsson's IQ is probably his best asset.

Bust probability is insanely low on both because Fantilli simply has enough physical tools to be a NHL winger.

 

[River Meadow]

I'm definitely on the other side of the debate.

We've seen Carlsson do something in a professional men's league. The bust factor is pretty low with him.. Fantilli is still playing against college athletes.

Fantilli shows some decision making and IQ flags.. where Carlsson's IQ is probably his best asset.

Bust probability is insanely low on both because Fantilli simply has enough physical tools to be a NHL winger.

I wasn't impressed with Fantilli at the WJC, for whatever it's worth..