2023 NHL Entry Draft

[Pompeius Magnus]

There's zero reason for us not to finish in the bottom 5, especially with how some of the teams below us have been picking up points recently. TBH, I'd see it as a major blunder if we don't, with how good the top of the draft looks. You don't get a chance at a Bedard too often, even a low percentage chance is worth more than a few more wins.

 

[Doublechin]

There's zero reason for us not to finish in the bottom 5, especially with how some of the teams below us have been picking up points recently. TBH, I'd see it as a major blunder if we don't, with how good the top of the draft looks. You don't get a chance at a Bedard too often, even a low percentage chance is worth more than a few more wins.

The top 5 is almost set in stone and would be a huge miss to miss out on it

 

[WeThreeKings]

I can live with being at 6th.. you can just grab Smith or Benson there and be very happy about it. At 7 you have to hope someone reached on a non-consensus guy.

 

[Doublechin]

I can live with being at 6th.. you can just grab Smith or Benson there and be very happy about it. At 7 you have to hope someone reached on a non-consensus guy.

I'd rather land a Marchand/Marner type (Benson) over a JT Miller type (Smith)

 

[WeThreeKings]

I'd rather land a Marchand/Marner type (Benson) over a JT Miller type (Smith)

I don't see the similarities with Smith and JT Miller.

Smith with his otherwordly handles and playmaking is more Marner than anyone.

 

[Sterling Archer]

I’ll say it again and again. If Habs pass up Michkov, they’re passing on elite, tier one level talent. Something they can’t afford to do.

 

[BergevinBurner]

The fact that Michkov is likely to not go top 3 is insane.
I'm assuming Bedard goes 1st obviously and I can't see Chicago or Columbus passing on centers like Carlsson/Fantilli if they pick 2nd/3rd since they both really need to address that need going forward.

 

[Mrb1p]

The fact that Michkov is likely to not go top 3 is insane.
I'm assuming Bedard goes 1st obviously and I can't see Chicago or Columbus passing on centers like Carlsson/Fantilli if they pick 2nd/3rd since they both really need to address that need going forward.

The Hawks just won 3 cups with one top 6 center and their best player being a winger, itd be foolish to think they "need" a C.

 

[BergevinBurner]

The Hawks just won 3 cups with one top 6 center and their best player being a winger, itd be foolish to think they "need" a C.

Teams still tend to want to build around a 1C since they're so difficult to obtain outside of the draft.

I'm not saying passing on Michkov would be the right move for them, but I just can't see a rebuilding team that's strapped for centers passing on two likely #1 centers for a winger that's years and years out.

Even if the GM thinks it'll be best for the team in the long run, they know it's a results based industry and they're likely to be canned long before Michkov arrives if things aren't going good before then.

 

[MasterMatt25]

I can see the top 3 teams not going for Michkov, but 4th and lower? Should be all over that

 

[Mrb1p]

Teams still tend to want to build around a 1C since they're so difficult to obtain outside of the draft.

I'm not saying passing on Michkov would be the right move for them, but I just can't see a rebuilding team that's strapped for centers passing on two likely #1 centers for a winger that's years and years out.

Even if the GM thinks it'll be best for the team in the long run, they know it's a results based industry and they're likely to be canned long before Michkov arrives if things aren't going good before then.

Good players are hard to obtain.

Michkov has a chance to be a top 10 player in the league, thats much harder to obtain than the random "1C".

Position matters when its all equal, and as much as I liked Carlsson and to a lesser extent Fantilli, its not.

 

[jaffy27]

I’ll say it again and again. If Habs pass up Michkov, they’re passing on elite, tier one level talent. Something they can’t afford to do.

Bedard, Carlsson and Fantilli are your 1-2-3 picks in the draft, this is 99% gonna happen (you can flip flop 2-3)

but at 4, I"m picking Michkov all day long, but depending on the team, I can see him drop to 5 but no lower

 

[Sterling Archer]

Bedard, Carlsson and Fantilli are your 1-2-3 picks in the draft, this is 99% gonna happen (you can flip flop 2-3)

but at 4, I"m picking Michkov all day long, but depending on the team, I can see him drop to 5 but no lower

Fantilli before Carlsson, but whatever.

I'm thinking Habs will draft between 5-8. If Michkov is there, they HAVE to take him. I'm sorry, but it would be direliction of duty if they don't at that spot. No one there is in the same galazy as Michkov, who has generational talent written all over him.

 

[jaffy27]

Fantilli before Carlsson, but whatever.

I'm thinking Habs will draft between 5-8. If Michkov is there, they HAVE to take him. I'm sorry, but it would be direliction of duty if they don't at that spot. No one there is in the same galazy as Michkov, who has generational talent written all over him.

that's why I said you can flip flop 2 and 3

I can see a team being gun shy about Michkov, nerves set in and you like f*** it, let's go the safer route and draft Smith or Yager or Benson. Maybe the player is a tad lesser but you assured yourself of a win.

 

[Draft]

I have no statistics and haven't done any leg work to back up this claim , but it definitely feels like there's a theme or pattern this year with small players and a very weak crop of defenceman out of NA. Feels like half the guys are projected to be the next "insert name of small, soft, one-dimensional scorer that beat the odds here".

I've watched a handful of WHL games in person this year and it just isn't the same league as it was 3/4 years ago. Size, grind, and defensive structure are bordering QMJHL levels. I don't buy that Bedard, Cristall, and Benson (and Yager/Ziemmer) are scoring at eye-popping levels in the WHL in the same year and it just so happens that the four best draft eligible defenceman out of the WHL can't even play defence (Dragicevic, Price, Molendyk, Cagnoni).

I think we need to temper expectations with the crop coming out of the West and be a bit more critical of their ability to translate that success to the NHL.

 

[Mrb1p]

I have no statistics and haven't done any leg work to back up this claim , but it definitely feels like there's a theme or pattern this year with small players and a very weak crop of defenceman out of NA. Feels like half the guys are projected to be the next "insert name of small, soft, one-dimensional scorer that beat the odds here".

I've watched a handful of WHL games in person this year and it just isn't the same league as it was 3/4 years ago. Size, grind, and defensive structure are bordering QMJHL levels. I don't buy that Bedard, Cristall, and Benson (and Yager/Ziemmer) are scoring at eye-popping levels in the WHL in the same year and it just so happens that the four best draft eligible defenceman out of the WHL can't even play defence (Dragicevic, Price, Molendyk, Cagnoni).

I think we need to temper expectations with the crop coming out of the West and be a bit more critical of their ability to translate that success to the NHL.

There is truth in both statements. The league is weaker defensively and more offensive than it used to be and the current crop is amazing.

The first point is applicable to every league in the world, there is a shift in hockey and it has been happening for years. McDavid is producing 150 points a year but the difference between him and the field is still similar to what it was in prior years.

 

[RationalExpectations]

Bedard, Carlsson and Fantilli are your 1-2-3 picks in the draft, this is 99% gonna happen (you can flip flop 2-3)

but at 4, I"m picking Michkov all day long, but depending on the team, I can see him drop to 5 but no lower

I think it all comes down to Russian factor aversion. If you have no aversion Michkov could be 2, if you have high Russian aversion and value growing the player in the AHL or NHL then he may go much later. I believe he would be closer to Bedard if he had played in Sotchi all year

 

[Draft]

There is truth in both statements. The league is weaker defensively and more offensive than it used to be and the current crop is amazing.

The first point is applicable to every league in the world, there is a shift in hockey and it has been happening for years. McDavid is producing 150 points a year but the difference between him and the field is still similar to what it was in prior years.

No doubt and this year it's really showing. I think we have to be cognizant of how a systemic change like this should be applied to player evaluations. At the moment, I think this first round has become skewed in favour of smaller, skilled players on the basis of maintaining pre-existing beliefs/evaluations on structural dynamics and a handful of success stories for smaller players at the NHL level.

It'll be a fine line between staying relevant with current trends and overvaluing/overscouting trends. In five years, there will still be 6 defenceman on the ice and size, toughness, and two-way play will still hold significant value (or more considering the returns we see on these players in trades). We need to avoid the same mistake as we did with the over correction in the McCarron/Tinordi years - especially in the top ten. If this year is as good as advertised, we can find an elite, well-rounded player with our first pick. If what we're getting is a small, one-dimensional scorer with inflated stats and a playing style that won't translate to structured, physical hockey (Cristall?), then I'll be pretty disappointed even if they are fun to watch.

 

[Mrb1p]

No doubt and this year it's really showing. I think we have to be cognizant of how a systemic change like this should be applied to player evaluations. At the moment, I think this first round has become skewed in favour of smaller, skilled players on the basis of maintaining pre-existing beliefs/evaluations on structural dynamics and a handful of success stories for smaller players at the NHL level.

It'll be a fine line between staying relevant with current trends and overvaluing/overscouting trends. In five years, there will still be 6 defenceman on the ice and size, toughness, and two-way play will still hold significant value (or more considering the returns we see on these players in trades). We need to avoid the same mistake as we did with the over correction in the McCarron/Tinordi years - especially in the top ten. If this year is as good as advertised, we can find an elite, well-rounded player with our first pick. If what we're getting is a small, one-dimensional scorer with inflated stats and a playing style that won't translate to structured, physical hockey (Cristall?), then I'll be pretty disappointed even if they are fun to watch.

Yeah sounds like youre misinformed and just talking out of your hockeyDb page.

All due respect, of course.

 

[Draft]

Yeah sounds like youre misinformed and just talking out of your hockeyDb page.

All due respect, of course.

I admitted as much! I haven't had time to consistently watch amateur hockey this year to get a sense of much outside of the WHL.

However, when you're talking systemic factors, those trends do pop up in the data. I can't speak to what it looks like in other leagues, but this is an odd year for the WHL both statistically and for the way the game is played on the ice. Is the crop of outliers due to exceptionally skilled players or changes in the quality of competition and the way the game is being played? I'm prepared for it to be a yes for both parts of that question, but I think it's unlikely.

I'm specifically picking on Cristall because in a year/league with stronger defensive structure and lower numbers, I think his creativity and pure offensive focus gets framed in a very different light. Alternatively, and a good counter point for this just being an outstanding year, I'd take Benson over Savoie every day of the week and I've seen a ton of both players. I don't think this should mean a significant drop for any of these players, but I do think it should be taken into consideration. It's a very odd year.

 

[MonkeyBusiness]

I have no statistics and haven't done any leg work to back up this claim , but it definitely feels like there's a theme or pattern this year with small players and a very weak crop of defenceman out of NA. Feels like half the guys are projected to be the next "insert name of small, soft, one-dimensional scorer that beat the odds here".

I've watched a handful of WHL games in person this year and it just isn't the same league as it was 3/4 years ago. Size, grind, and defensive structure are bordering QMJHL levels. I don't buy that Bedard, Cristall, and Benson (and Yager/Ziemmer) are scoring at eye-popping levels in the WHL in the same year and it just so happens that the four best draft eligible defenceman out of the WHL can't even play defence (Dragicevic, Price, Molendyk, Cagnoni).

I think we need to temper expectations with the crop coming out of the West and be a bit more critical of their ability to translate that success to the NHL.

Teams in the dub scored an average of 3.26 goals a game in 2018-19, whereas they're scoring 3.43 goals a game this season. That's a very small difference. Plus, Yager and Ziemmer aren't exactly setting the world on fire.

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

that's why I said you can flip flop 2 and 3

I can see a team being gun shy about Michkov, nerves set in and you like f*** it, let's go the safer route and draft Smith or Yager or Benson. Maybe the player is a tad lesser but you assured yourself of a win.

If my team said nyet to Michkov for Smith or Yager, I'd be pretty peeved not gonna lie.

Benson.......I wouldn't do it, but I'd understand it, he's just a great hockey player. Whether his lack of next level skating ability (at this stage) proves to limit him in the NHL, that is the only question I have

 

[Draft]

Teams in the dub scored an average of 3.26 goals a game in 2018-19, whereas they're scoring 3.43 goals a game this season. That's a very small difference. Plus, Yager and Ziemmer aren't exactly setting the world on fire.

The top players in 2019 - Dach (1.17), Cozens (1.23), Byram, Krebs - were all below 1.24ppg.

While Ziemmer (1.3ppg) and Yager (1.13ppg) aren't setting the world on fire this year and will likely fall somewhere in the latter parts of the 1st, they'd be amongst the top producers of 2019. That seems odd to me. But the next year you have Jarvis at the top around 1.7 so I'm not sure if 2019 is a good year to compare.

I think the trend could be highlighting the way goals are scored - less of focus on team play/structure and more of a focus on individual play - than it is on overall scoring. You see it on the ice for sure.

If someone is really bored and wants to find data to support/disprove the premise of this year being a bit of a statistical anomaly for top players in the WHL, that would be an interesting analysis.

 

[MonkeyBusiness]

The top players in 2019 - Dach (1.17), Cozens (1.23), Byram, Krebs - were all below 1.24ppg.

While Ziemmer (1.3ppg) and Yager (1.13ppg) aren't setting the world on fire this year and will likely fall somewhere in the latter parts of the 1st, they'd be amongst the top producers of 2019. That seems odd to me. But the next year you have Jarvis at the top around 1.7 so I'm not sure if 2019 is a good year to compare.

I think the trend could be highlighting the way goals are scored - less of focus on team play/structure and more of a focus on individual play - than it is on overall scoring. You see it on the ice for sure.

If someone is really bored and wants to find data to support/disprove the premise of this year being a bit of a statistical anomaly for top players in the WHL, that would be an interesting analysis.

Bedard is definitely on a different level than anyone who's played in the WHL in a while. While his numbers may be inflated by certain factors, I do believe he's in the same tier of prospects as Crosby and McDavid. Regarding this in bold, I don't really think there is a way to prove without a doubt that there is a statistical anomaly per se. What you can do is study how certain variables (time on ice, league-wide scoring, PP efficiency, etc.) could correlate with scoring. There are statistical tools to study the correlation between multiple variables and another. Even then I don't think this season is that big of an anomaly. I am also too lazy to do any type of meaningful inquiry.

I would apply Occam's razor in this situation, and just find one logical assumption as to why Dach and Cozens scored less. Like you say, the year after that Jarvis was at around 1.7 PPG, just like Benson. You do bring up good points, though, and it certainly is an interesting discussion.

Edit: If you look at the PPG for all non draft eligible players in 2018-19, there's not really a huge difference. It seems to be mostly with draft eligible prospects. Maybe it was a bad year for them? Anyhow, it could be caused by a plethora of reasons. But I strongly doubt that the difference lies in the league having changed drastically.

 

[1000eeer]

I can live with being at 6th.. you can just grab Smith or Benson there and be very happy about it. At 7 you have to hope someone reached on a non-consensus guy.

I can live with being at 7th or even 8th (Moore or Leonard)...

They are really really good players

We'd be lucky to add one of these players.