2023 NHL Entry Draft

[Mrb1p]

It's important to invest in and grow an homegrown starter. Look at what terrible goalies like Jack Campbell have gotten as a UFA and he hasn't even gotten passed round 1. He also started behind one of those solid teams who thought they could put any goalie in net and have success.

I'd rather avoid having to put 5m on our cap on mediocre goalies like Kuemper, Campbell, etc. 'Cause even if they can do fine one year, they are rarely consistent, and missing out on your window because your goaltending isn't consistent sucks.

Colorado was sunk by Grubauer multiple times. Toronto was sunk by Campbell. Yet Tampa Bay remains an incredibly tough out every year cause they have Vasy.

The goalie position is a graveyard of mediocrity right now. It isn't like before where a lot of starters were capable, we've got a bunch of back-up goalies starting for prominent contending teams.



He's gonna be a value grab for someone.. it's kind of like Matthew Knies who had a good D-1 but not a great D season, and didn't get taken as high as they should based on traits.

Simply put, after the Hlinka he hasn't produced.

Pick goaltenders, just not in the first. Skinner is the Oilers starter right now, hes fine-ish.

Hellebuyck, Shesterkin, Sorokin, Saros, Skinner, Binnington, Jarry, Hart, UPL, Swayman, Quick, Kochetkov, Gibson are all homegrown starter/close to be starter and none of them were picked in the first round.

Goaltenders are incredibly hard to predict and have incredibly volatile careers, its much better to take shots in the dark than waste a first on them.

Cossa couldve been Johnston.
Askarov couldve been Guhle.
Knight couldve been Caufield.
Oettinger couldve been Robertson.
Samsonov coulsve been Konecny.
Vasilevski hit but Subban couldve been Skjei. Andersen, Hellebuyck and Murray were all picked later thay draft.
Visentin couldve been Coyle
Price couldve been Kopitar.

Theres history and it doesnt look good for a 1st round selection.

 

[Playmaker09]

I'm no goalie evaluator, but Hrabal and Bjarnasson's numbers don't exactly jump off the page. Hrabal especially is putting a Cayden Primeau-like season in the USHL, and he was a 7th rounder. Are we sure they should have a top 40 grade?

 

[Vachon23]

Pick goaltenders, just not in the first. Skinner is the Oilers starter right now, hes fine-ish.

Hellebuyck, Shesterkin, Sorokin, Saros, Skinner, Binnington, Jarry, Hart, UPL, Swayman, Quick, Kochetkov, Gibson are all homegrown starter/close to be starter and none of them were picked in the first round.

Goaltenders are incredibly hard to predict and have incredibly volatile careers, its much better to take shots in the dark than waste a first on them.

Cossa couldve been Johnston.
Askarov couldve been Guhle.
Knight couldve been Caufield.
Oettinger couldve been Robertson.
Samsonov coulsve been Konecny.
Vasilevski hit but Subban couldve been Skjei. Andersen, Hellebuyck and Murray were all picked later thay draft.
Visentin couldve been Coyle
Price couldve been Kopitar.

Theres history and it doesnt look good for a 1st round selection.

or
Cossa could have been Samoskevich
Knight could have been Cam York
Ottenginer could have been Shane Bowers
Samsonov could have been Nick Merkley
Price could have been Gilbert Brule

Both case could be argue

 

[HuGort]

Here’s Pronman’s updated list

1-Bedard
2-Fantilli
3-Michkov
4-Carlson
5-Smith
6-Reinbacher
7-Sale
8-But
9-Danielson
10-Moore
11-Honzek
12-Benson
13-Dvorsky
14-Yager
15-Smishaev
16-Leonard
17-Wood
18-Barlow
19-Molendyk
20-Perrault
21-Musty
22-Ritchie
23-Stramel
24-Sandin-Pellika
25-Bonk
26-Gulyayev
27-Dragicevic
28-Criistall
29-Nadeau
30-Strabek
31-Dvorak
32-Stenberg

Holy crap, he certainly dumped on Benson and Barlow. In love with Reinbacher

 

[Mrb1p]

or
Cossa could have been Samoskevich
Knight could have been Cam York
Ottenginer could have been Shane Bowers
Samsonov could have been Nick Merkley
Price could have been Gilbert Brule

Both case could be argue

You gotta trust your scoutint staff (though I dont trust this one, lol.)

Its an investment youre making, youre just buying the much lower value bond if you pick a G in the first. Goaltenders just dont have good market value, in part because of the volatility of the position and the demand being lower. At worst you just trade that god damn top 6 forward for a goaltender and a pick, because god knows theres no value there. Whats the biggest goaltender trade in history? Schneider for a 9th?

 

[SwiftyHab]

Holy crap, he certainly dumped on Benson and Barlow. In love with Reinbacher

If this is an indication of what other scouts are thinking, it’ll make this draft extremely interesting for us. Especially if we have 3 picks

 

[Vachon23]

You gotta trust your scoutint staff (though I dont trust this one, lol.)

Its an investment youre making, youre just buying the much lower value bond if you pick a G in the first. Goaltenders just dont have good market value, in part because of the volatility of the position and the demand being lower. At worst you just trade that god damn top 6 forward for a goaltender and a pick, because god knows theres no value there. Whats the biggest goaltender trade in history? Schneider for a 9th?

Because the teams that have a solid #1 G are just keeping them because they are actually tough to find.

If you have a chance to grab your starting Goalie for the next 10 yrs in the late 1st round, you need to do it. Most of the prospect you can get at that rank are futur 2-3rd liner our bottom pair Dmen

 

[HuGort]

If this is an indication of what other scouts are thinking, it’ll make this draft extremely interesting for us. Especially if we have 3 picks

Can you imagine getting Smith and Benson first two picks?

 

[SwiftyHab]

Can you imagine getting Smith and Benson first two picks?

I can’t but if you bring the peyote, I’ll dream with you.

 

[Mrb1p]

Because the teams that have a solid #1 G are just keeping them because they are actually tough to find.

If you have a chance to grab your starting Goalie for the next 10 yrs in the late 1st round, you need to do it. Most of the prospect you can get at that rank are futur 2-3rd liner our bottom pair Dmen

What starting goaltenders have 10 years careers?

What about Markstrom, Andersen, Fleury, Ullmark, Vanecek, Georgiev, Samsonov, Varlamov, Georgiev and Husso?

The problem with that is that long starter careers are very rare.

 

[SOLR]

Doesn't have Hughes skating. In any case, Smith will definitely play NCAA next year, and won't jump directly into NHL like Hughes did. He'll have time to gain strength & improve skating.

Smith is 2 years away. No way I want him going pro after one year like Turcotte did.

I agree that Smith is our pick if he's there.

Don't think Turcotte's development decision mattered.

I'm no goalie evaluator, but Hrabal and Bjarnasson's numbers don't exactly jump off the page. Hrabal especially is putting a Cayden Primeau-like season in the USHL, and he was a 7th rounder. Are we sure they should have a top 40 grade?

Nope...I have him in the 3rd round, no sooner.

What starting goaltenders have 10 years careers?

What about Markstrom, Andersen, Fleury, Ullmark, Vanecek, Georgiev, Samsonov, Varlamov, Georgiev and Husso?

The problem with that is that long starter careers are very rare.

I don't disagree with you per say on this one, but we need a significant injection of talent in our current goaltender barn. Why I still spend a late first on Bjarnarson.

 

[Mrb1p]

Don't think Turcotte's development decision mattered.



Nope...I have him in the 3rd round, no sooner.



I don't disagree with you per say on this one, but we need a significant injection of talent in our current goaltender barn. Why I still spend a late first on Bjarnarson.

I dont disagree, I just disagree on what asset to use to do so. Quantity is better than quality on goaltenders.

 

[Mrb1p]

Anyone get the feeling that we trade up with the FLA pick to get Reinbacher? I'm REALLY liking his game and we desperately need RHD help because I'm not sold on Barron/Mailloux occupying the top 4.

Reinbachers my guy, I like him at 6.

 

[The Great Weal]

Reinbachers my guy, I like him at 6.

I think we have to take a forward with our own pick, but the Panthers one is a different story. Michkov and Reinbacher would be a massive W.

 

[Mrb1p]

I think we have to take a forward with our own pick, but the Panthers one is a different story. Michkov and Reinbacher would be a massive W.

Yeah, I mean I have him at 6 on my list. Id be sad if he was the big get though.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Honest question since I don't know how to scout/develop goalies, for the Bjarnason/Hrabal discussion.
Should we be worried about picking CHL goalies, considering they'll face nothing but junior players for the next 2-3 years?

If both guys were close enough, both good technically and high potential, I feel like I would want the European keeper that can build good habits against adults in Europe, or even jump in the AHL earlier. At some point there is so much a player can learn in the juniors in preparation for the pros, and a CHL goalie is stuck there even if he's looking ready for the next challenge. Even Jesus Price handled the CHL-to-pro technical transition with challenges.

There's also more flexibility on the contract/rights with a European goalie, no?

You should be worried about picking CHL goalies in general. The fact is, Canada has sucked at developing goalies for a long time. It's not necessarily because they are facing junior shooters.. it's just because Hockey Canada hasn't modernized goalie development at all. They are teaching outdated concepts, goalies are learning on their own in schools and camps, and during the season they are glorified shooter tutors for systems and skill work for defense and forwards.

I don't like spending late round picks on CHL goalies because you have to make a decision on them sooner (look at Vrbetic, for example). But when you see a talent like Bjarnason who is overcoming the shitty Hockey Canada goalie development system, you take him and you develop him every step of the way.

Hrabal is European but he's playing in the USHL. He'll be in the NCAA next year. If we want a European goalie, I'd recommend Clara, but I'd take him as a 2nd goalie (I want to take 2 this year, sue me).

The issue with European goalies is different. Look at Dichow, who is playing back-up in the SHL. They don't always get the chance to start a lot of games over in Europe.

I'm no goalie evaluator, but Hrabal and Bjarnasson's numbers don't exactly jump off the page. Hrabal especially is putting a Cayden Primeau-like season in the USHL, and he was a 7th rounder. Are we sure they should have a top 40 grade?

Can't really look at goalie stats for evaluation. You can find someone with good numbers and it's a product of their team. You just look at tools, temperament, athleticism, their tracking skills etc. and how they project. They take longer so you bet on tools and athleticism and teach them the technical side of things.

Hrabal is so athletic and competitive for a 6'6" goalie that once you coordinate and refine him, he could be one of the next best goalies in the world.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

McKeen's mid-season rankings:

2023 NHL DRAFT: MCKEEN’S MID-SEASON TOP 32 RANKING

McKeen's Hockey releases its Mid-Season Top 32 2023 NHL Draft Ranking.

www.mckeenshockey.com

 

[Mrb1p]

Yikes all these rankings are all over the place.

Heidt is notably very underrated for what hes doing compared to his peers and his skillset.

 

[JT3]

I'm on team no goalies in the 1st round personally. Historically it just isn't worth it, you're better off using it on a skater and rolling the dice in the 2nd round or beyond. I'd rather take a shot on Clara/Gajan in the 2nd/3rd than use a higher pick on Bjarnasson/Hrabal over a skater given the level of talent still available in the late 1st. And even if they do eventually become a starter, you're usually waiting 4-5 years for them to reach that level anyways, and that's basically at minimum. Just not worth it for me.

Assuming we pick 6-7 and all of Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli, Carlsson and Smith are gone, I'm nearing the point where I'd be comfortable picking Reinbacher there and trading Florida's pick for Dubois. Obviously the dream would be to get a top tier forward with our pick and get Reinbacher with Florida's, but it's getting harder to imagine him being available there.

 

[morhilane]

Yikes all these rankings are all over the place.

Heidt is notably very underrated for what hes doing compared to his peers and his skillset.

The only consensus seems to be Bedard at #1 with Carlsson/Fantalli/Michkov in different order to complete the top 4 (and even that 2-4 ranking sometimes have other guests in it). After that, it looks like people just used randomness to get the rest of their list.

This guarantee good forwards are going to drop, but also that the Ds and Gs are probably going to be taken fast since they will be rarer commodities.

 

[xposbrad]

The only consensus seems to be Bedard at #1 with Carlsson/Fantalli/Michkov in different order to complete the top 4 (and even that 2-4 ranking sometimes have other guests in it). After that, it looks like people just used randomness to get the rest of their list.

This guarantee good forwards are going to drop, but also that the Ds and Gs are probably going to be taken fast since they will be rarer commodities.

That's why the goal to start the season for fans was a top 4 pick. Just so much disparity 5-10. I know we will still get a decent player there but we need a home run this year.

 

[Doublechin]

I'm on team no goalies in the 1st round personally. Historically it just isn't worth it, you're better off using it on a skater and rolling the dice in the 2nd round or beyond. I'd rather take a shot on Clara/Gajan in the 2nd/3rd than use a higher pick on Bjarnasson/Hrabal over a skater given the level of talent still available in the late 1st. And even if they do eventually become a starter, you're usually waiting 4-5 years for them to reach that level anyways, and that's basically at minimum. Just not worth it for me.

Assuming we pick 6-7 and all of Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli, Carlsson and Smith are gone, I'm nearing the point where I'd be comfortable picking Reinbacher there and trading Florida's pick for Dubois. Obviously the dream would be to get a top tier forward with our pick and get Reinbacher with Florida's, but it's getting harder to imagine him being available there.

I like Reinbacher, just not enough to take him in the top 10, not this year at least.

 

[KevSkillz4]

I like Reinbacher, just not enough to take him in the top 10, not this year at least.

Agree with you. In top 10, Habs really need to take a forward, even it's not a top 4 pick, Habs have a chance to grab Benson, Smith, Dvorsky, Yager, Moore or Sale. Even Heidt, Leonard or Barlow that I really like aswell. With Florida pick, you can take a D.

 

[Team_Spirit]

I agree with goalies generally but some years there's an obvious goalie stud coming along. Askarov is legit no way they trade him.

I'm on the Bjarnason train if we can get a late 1st.

 

[JT3]

Agree with you. In top 10, Habs really need to take a forward, even it's not a top 4 pick, Habs have a chance to grab Benson, Smith, Dvorsky, Yager, Moore or Sale. Even Heidt, Leonard or Barlow that I really like aswell. With Florida pick, you can take a D.

Smith and Benson I think about, but for the most part if all the slam dunk C's are off the board I look long and hard at Reinbacher. A potential top pair RD is a much harder hole to fill and MUCH harder to acquire than a top 6 F/W. At this point unless Florida dips in the standings he won't be available there, and I think you still have good odds to add say a Moore or Heidt with the Florida pick instead.

But assuming we do take a forward with the 1st pick, I would rather punt the RD pick to a potential late 1st or our 2nd round pick as I'm not sold on any of the mid-range ranked dmen like ASP or Gulyayev or whoever. Would rather just take two high end forwards first and then swing on Dragicevic/Strbak/Bonk/Akey later on.

Just my 2c anyways. Still a lot of season left and a lot of time for evaluations and rankings to shift.