2023 NHL Entry Draft

[montreal]

I haven't really followed the 2023 class. If he were in next year's draft, where would Slafkovsky rank amongst the class? Would he be in or out of the top 5? Just trying to understand the perceived skill and depth of next year's draft.

I don't know about top 5, but it's too early to say as things often look very different 11-12 months later when it comes to talking about 16 year old prospects so guys that were sure fire top 5 or 10 picks now could be out of favor in say 10 months from now, or guys not on peoples radar as say a top 5 or 10 pick and in 10 months from now they are, etc....

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

I haven't really followed the 2023 class. If he were in next year's draft, where would Slafkovsky rank amongst the class? Would he be in or out of the top 5? Just trying to understand the perceived skill and depth of next year's draft.

Slafkovsky was always just a very unpredictable pick. That's why I personally didn't have him at 1, just because of the gap between floor and ceiling. Slafs ceiling was always known as one of if not the highest in 2022. If everyone reaches their potential (Slaf and the 2023 draft class), he'd be battling for 4 with Dvorsky imo. That's not a slight to Slaf. The top 4-5 of this draft are just insane. It's not just 2022 tho. The guys at the top of the draft would probably go 1 in every draft since 2010 besides 2013, 2015 and 2016. That's why the tank this year, as many of us have been saying for months, before and after Habs got the no.1 pick, is so important. If Habs draft top 4, that player will probably be the best player on the Habs roster moving forward

 

[SOLR]

We should only be so lucky to have to 'settle' for Fantilli. He would be our best forward prospect since I watched Stephane Richer skate through the Soviet team with ease at the 1985 WJC. Even Bedard was blown away with the speed, talent and physical presence Fantilli exhibited at this last U18. This kid reminds me of a young Mackinnon. And which team wouldn't want that that type of player? And if Fantilli's development continues at the NCAA level this year, there is little doubt in my mind who I would be drafting first overall next June. No doubt at all.

Yeah no, not at all. Fantilli has no shot vs. Bedard. We saw at the same U18 why: Fantilli hockey IQ is not that high. In fact, I think it's more likely Dvorsky and Carlsson overcome Fantilli who has been more physically mature until this point, the other two are catching up and right now I have Fantilli behind them, because of the hockey IQ factor. Edouard Sale is oozing with IQ as well.

It's also because Fantilli won't be a center in the NHL...Maxpac. That's very valuable, but Slafkovski and Fantilli on the same team would be quite useless drafting choices. We need high IQ players, they are what is missing to this team.

I haven't really followed the 2023 class. If he were in next year's draft, where would Slafkovsky rank amongst the class? Would he be in or out of the top 5? Just trying to understand the perceived skill and depth of next year's draft.

No one in the 2022 draft is top 9 in the 2023 draft, I have answered this already 3-4 times - you can search for my more detailed answers.

 

[SOLR]

Slafkovsky was always just a very unpredictable pick. That's why I personally didn't have him at 1, just because of the gap between floor and ceiling. Slafs ceiling was always known as one of if not the highest in 2022. If everyone reaches their potential (Slaf and the 2023 draft class), he'd be battling for 4 with Dvorsky imo. That's not a slight to Slaf. The top 4-5 of this draft are just insane. It's not just 2022 tho. The guys at the top of the draft would probably go 1 in every draft since 2010 besides 2013, 2015 and 2016. That's why the tank this year, as many of us have been saying for months, before and after Habs got the no.1 pick, is so important. If Habs draft top 4, that player will probably be the best player on the Habs roster moving forward

Unpredictable yes, unpredictable vs. his peers, no not at all. He's been in the top 3-5 for the 2022 draft for 3 years.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

Unpredictable yes, unpredictable vs. his peers, no not at all. He's been in the top 3-5 for the 2022 draft for 3 years.

No unpredictable vs wright and nemec imo. They are pretty close to sure things but I also think slafs ceiling is the highest along with cooley

 

[ChesterNimitz]

Yeah no, not at all. Fantilli has no shot vs. Bedard. We saw at the same U18 why: Fantilli hockey IQ is not that high. In fact, I think it's more likely Dvorsky and Carlsson overcome Fantilli who has been more physically mature until this point, the other two are catching up and right now I have Fantilli behind them, because of the hockey IQ factor. Edouard Sale is oozing with IQ as well.

It's also because Fantilli won't be a center in the NHL...Maxpac. That's very valuable, but Slafkovski and Fantilli on the same team would be quite useless drafting choices. We need high IQ players, they are what is missing to this team.
=====================================
Perhaps, but the development trajectory of teenagers is uncertain. Similarly to the initial concerns I had about Wright’s performance at the U18, I have some concerns about Bedard’s performance at this past U18. I just didn’t see him drive the play like he had at the previous U18. I thought that Fantilli was far more impactful. But let us see what happens this year. But above all, be wary of the consensus.

 

[Clearedwaivers]

We should only be so lucky to have to 'settle' for Fantilli. He would be our best forward prospect since I watched Stephane Richer skate through the Soviet team with ease at the 1985 WJC. Even Bedard was blown away with the speed, talent and physical presence Fantilli exhibited at this last U18. This kid reminds me of a young Mackinnon. And which team wouldn't want that that type of player? And if Fantilli's development continues at the NCAA level this year, there is little doubt in my mind who I would be drafting first overall next June. No doubt at all.

Wow. You’re really that high on him eh? I’ve seen a couple guys rank Michkov ahead of Bedard, but not Fantilli, although you do acknowledge that would only be the case if his development continues on the same curve this year. Thanks for your input. I like seeing individual takes on different players, that may not be the consensus feeling.

 

[Weber Fan]

There seems to have a consensus for the top 3 but who’s your number 4?

 

[Adam Michaels]

 

[SOLR]

@ChesterNimitz at the 2022 U18 a much bigger part of the team was 16 (normally half are 17, like Wright's team), what we saw is a Bedard left alone and if anything Fantilli was so underwhelming that Bedard could be vastly checked. Other countries did not have that issue, so it was pretty much a bunch of 17 years old teams (look at Sweden's roster, it's Lekkerimaki's gang) against Canada's U17. One could not expect that team Canada to do very well at the U18 with a U17 team + it's largely not our tournament because of the CHL's playoffs. Ie. I take Bedard's lack of dominance there that he's not superman - it's not a big revelation.

There seems to have a consensus for the top 3 but who’s your number 4?

There is no consensus for the top 3. There is a consensus for the top 2 (in terms of abilities). Bedard and Michkov are the best players.

It's a 5-7 players race for that number 3.

 

[Adam Michaels]

 

[WeThreeKings]

There seems to have a consensus for the top 3 but who’s your number 4?

I wouldn't be surprised if Leo Carlsson became my #2 by year-end. Michkov is better just that the KHL contract and Putin saga has to be weighed in.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

@ChesterNimitz at the 2022 U18 a much bigger part of the team was 16 (normally half are 17, like Wright's team), what we saw is a Bedard left alone and if anything Fantilli was so underwhelming that Bedard could be vastly checked. Other countries did not have that issue, so it was pretty much a bunch of 17 years old teams (look at Sweden's roster, it's Lekkerimaki's gang) against Canada's U17. One could not expect that team Canada to do very well at the U18 with a U17 team + it's largely not our tournament because of the CHL's playoffs. Ie. I take Bedard's lack of dominance there that he's not superman - it's not a big revelation.

Perhaps. But if in the coming year, Bedard fails to impress, I hope we are spared the litany of excuses that accompanied Wright's less than stellar year. I, for one, am not prepared to anoint Bedard as the next one at this time. Let's watch the progress of his game and see his game for what it is as opposed to the already established, all knowing, rigid assumptions of the consensus.

 

[crosbyshow]

I wouldn't be surprised if Leo Carlsson became my #2 by year-end. Michkov is better just that the KHL contract and Putin saga has to be weighed in.

Yep.

Michkov will not be draft Top 5 because of these 2 major reasons

 

[SOLR]

I wouldn't be surprised if Leo Carlsson became my #2 by year-end. Michkov is better just that the KHL contract and Putin saga has to be weighed in.

I think we'll need to separate the "best players list" from the "draft list" this year.

 

[Kent Nilsson]

Unfortunately it sounds like that Panthers pick is pegged for the Dubois trade

Dont be so pessimist bro. HuGo has not done anything that would come even close to be half as stupid as trading for PLD yet.

I’m sure they are well aware of the value of 2023 1sts. Actually, I would bet they pushed hard for 2023 picks in their deadline deals, Zito was just the only fish that was dumb enough to bite.

 

[Bee Holder]

So even if I give you 50% chance Gretzky comes into your club, you would take Joe Pavelski instead because he's guaranteed to come to your club?

Seriously, everyone is claiming that several players have the potential to become franchise players in the 2023 draft, but history begs to differ. Even assuming some drafts are better than others, an exceptional draft will have 2 or 3 franchise players in the Top 10 max.

Verify for yourself:

NHL and WHA Draft History at Hockeydb.com

If you get a chance at Michkov, you take him.

As for the pointlessness of this exercise, every single thing we discuss here is an exercise in futility.

You speak about that “50%” to get a Gretzky in such an optimistic way it makes you look 100% sure we win the 50% lottery.

(Using your own comparables) Imagine we draft Gretzky at 50% chance he comes to the NHL instead of a 100% chance Pavelsky. And then, 5 years later, the “next Gretzky” doesn’t come to play in the NHL while another team has a very effective Pavelsky. Wouldn’t you feel a bit stupid then?

 

[Mrb1p]

J. Fresh's bottom 5 in his projected standings for 2022-2023:

1. Arizona
2. Chicago
3. Montreal
3. Philadelphia
5. Anaheim

Montreal and Philadelphia are tied at 71 pts. That would actually be a 16 pt improvement for Montreal, as they only finished with 55 pts last season.

How the hell can the Habs go 16 pts more when they added nothing and lost their whole top 4 defense from september last year and two top 6 wingers

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

There seems to have a consensus for the top 3 but who’s your number 4?

...if we're outside the Top 3, I like Dvorsky...kid is talented, huge, and Slovakian...

Slafkovsky - Dvorsky - Mesar


THE SLOVAK SLAUGHTERHOUSE!!!!!!!!!

 

[Doublechin]

Yeah no, not at all. Fantilli has no shot vs. Bedard. We saw at the same U18 why: Fantilli hockey IQ is not that high. In fact, I think it's more likely Dvorsky and Carlsson overcome Fantilli who has been more physically mature until this point, the other two are catching up and right now I have Fantilli behind them, because of the hockey IQ factor. Edouard Sale is oozing with IQ as well.

It's also because Fantilli won't be a center in the NHL...Maxpac. That's very valuable, but Slafkovski and Fantilli on the same team would be quite useless drafting choices. We need high IQ players, they are what is missing to this team.



No one in the 2022 draft is top 9 in the 2023 draft, I have answered this already 3-4 times - you can search for my more detailed answers.

Everyone mentions Rantanen for Slafkovsky as a comparable but I remember watching Sale play at the U18s, having not seen him before and going boy does this kid play like a 17 year old Rantanen

 

[NotProkofievian]

 

[MarkovsKnee]

How the hell can the Habs go 16 pts more when they added nothing and lost their whole top 4 defense from september last year and two top 6 wingers

Less injuries, better seasons from players who all had mostly bad ones, a coach that plays a faster, more aggressive game, probably better goaltending.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

An Italian choosing hockey over football? Played all his hockey in Switzerland. 2023 draft eligible. Will be an interesting follow.

 

[NotProkofievian]

An Italian choosing hockey over football? Played all his hockey in Switzerland. 2023 draft eligible. Will be an interesting follow.

He looks like a pretty serious talent. With all the talent in the WHL this year I might actually buy a season's pass to WHL live.

 

[SOLR]

Perhaps. But if in the coming year, Bedard fails to impress, I hope we are spared the litany of excuses that accompanied Wright's less than stellar year. I, for one, am not prepared to anoint Bedard as the next one at this time. Let's watch the progress of his game and see his game for what it is as opposed to the already established, all knowing, rigid assumptions of the consensus.

It's not rigid or all-knowing, it's a projection on the data we have, Bedard already has shown much more advanced stuff than Wright and I'll include his personality. +An already vastly superior U20 performance to anyone else. There was always players close to Wright even at 15, Slaf was already there - the starting gap was not significant.

Wright's U18, Bedard was the team MVP. ie. in the tournament that sustained Wright's number 1 ranking, he was not even the best player in his team. The MVP of the tournament was Michkov, the other guy we are talking about, both of them in their 15 years old season. The guy who's had the best performance beside them at 15 is Dvorsky.

If I go back in 20 years of data it's very very very rare that 15 years old with such a gap vs. the rest of the field at least get drafted in the top 5. With Michkov *draft ranking* likely affected by the Russian factor - it's likely that Bedard will be alone at number 1 all year and will get drafted number 1.

I'm not predicting what will happen, I'm just conveying what the modelling shows for now.