2023 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

[oceanchild]

What team ever has traded players the calibre/age of Pettersson/Hughes/Demko to do a long-term rebuild?

Teams like Montreal don't behave like this because they don't have good players and are in year 2 of a 6+ year rebuild. It's a totally different thing. We aren't acting the same because we aren't in the same position as other teams. There's a thing called context. Actions are determined by the situation.

It's video game crap because it's absolutely clueless takes from fans who are playing EA Sports in their heads and not even remotely comprehending that there is money and people involved in professional sports and it isn't just pushing buttons on a controller in fantasyland. And I'll keep saying it.

And again : this team shut down multiple players, traded multiple key players, dressed a shell roster for the last couple months. The only thing they didn't do was cut the minutes of their star players who they want engaged and buying into the program here, which is totally reasonable. And unlike every other team around us in the standings, those players are going to win hockey games.

What team has had a group like that and continued to fail this consistently and badly. We also had Horvat as well until recently. This team needs to be gutted and we need entry level contracts.

 

[oceanchild]

I'm not saying anything remotely like that. I don't think the actual results right now even particular matter other than being an offshoot of the process.

They're trying to establish a process here and standards and a system of a winning team. They're trying to show these guys they're doing things the right way and that the things they're doing will turn this team around. And they're trying to show these players that they're 'the guys' here who will receive an opportunity to level up into superstar players for this franchise.

They're trying to show these guys a plan and a path where a Pettersson will say, 'yeah, I'm happy signing an 8-year deal this summer because I think we can turn things around'. If they did a Detroit and messaged that they don't care about next year and it's going to be another 2-3 years before doing anything of note, Pettersson is gone. 0

Didn’t we finish last year strong ? How did that carry over ?

 

[oceanchild]

Fair. but that 3% vs. 6% is pretty unlikely to come into play. And most people here seem more upset by the drop to 11th than the drop in lottery odds, and I'm responding to that.

6% is doubling your odds from 3%. That is a tangable improvement to the odds, the team does not benefit in anyway from overplaying the best players to make a run in garbage time. It does not carry over, as we can see from last season, and does not change the outcome of this season. So clearly the optimal solution is the improve odds as it provides the most benefit. If this had been done in conjunction with improving the cap space situation such as trading JT miller, we likely would have improved the lotto odds even more. It is possible if we had 4 first rounders that we could have traded OEL and two firsts to open even more cap space. This is optimal, because teams are up against the cap, and the opportunity to leverage that is better than the opportunity to trade contracts and have that align.

The point is we are making suboptimal decisions and it’s clearly measurable by what derives benefit and clearly moving up a couple spaces in the standings does not.

 

[ChilliBilly]

6% is doubling your odds from 3%. That is a tangable improvement to the odds, the team does not benefit in anyway from overplaying the best players to make a run in garbage time. It does not carry over, as we can see from last season, and does not change the outcome of this season. So clearly the optimal solution is the improve odds as it provides the most benefit. If this had been done in conjunction with improving the cap space situation such as trading JT miller, we likely would have improved the lotto odds even more. It is possible if we had 4 first rounders that we could have traded OEL and two firsts to open even more cap space. This is optimal, because teams are up against the cap, and the opportunity to leverage that is better than the opportunity to trade contracts and have that align.

The point is we are making suboptimal decisions and it’s clearly measurable by what derives benefit and clearly moving up a couple spaces in the standings does not.

People often don't understand what a difference this makes. Playing to win meaningless games at the expense of overplaying your key players is just stupid. If you don't understand the difference between a 3% chance and a 6% chance, I would like to play poker with those people.

Just a note, I kept track for 3 years of playing tournament poker in Seattle. For every dollar I spent I made a dollar fifty. People would say, why don't you do that for a living then? My reply - because then it would be work, not fun, and only was working out $15/hr, when I was making more than double that in my job. And to move up to more expensive games means tougher competition.

Edit - another note, basically every person playing in those games thought they were the best player in the room. A lot like HF Boards opinions.

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

"The point is we are making suboptimal decisions and it’s clearly measurable by what derives benefit and clearly moving up a couple spaces in the standings does not."


By "We", do you mean "You" actually own the team or is this Fan-speak?

 

[brock hughes007]

I think we will draft another European Winger that fell off the boards.

Yeah I'm thinking the same thing.

 

[JT Milker]

What team has had a group like that and continued to fail this consistently and badly. We also had Horvat as well until recently. This team needs to be gutted and we need entry level contracts.

This is

Didn’t we finish last year strong ? How did that carry over ?

How to

6% is doubling your odds from 3%. That is a tangable improvement to the odds, the team does not benefit in anyway from overplaying the best players to make a run in garbage time. It does not carry over, as we can see from last season, and does not change the outcome of this season. So clearly the optimal solution is the improve odds as it provides the most benefit. If this had been done in conjunction with improving the cap space situation such as trading JT miller, we likely would have improved the lotto odds even more. It is possible if we had 4 first rounders that we could have traded OEL and two firsts to open even more cap space. This is optimal, because teams are up against the cap, and the opportunity to leverage that is better than the opportunity to trade contracts and have that align.

The point is we are making suboptimal decisions and it’s clearly measurable by what derives benefit and clearly moving up a couple spaces in the standings does not.

Multi quote

 

[Szechwan]

"The point is we are making suboptimal decisions and it’s clearly measurable by what derives benefit and clearly moving up a couple spaces in the standings does not."


By "We", do you mean "You" actually own the team or is this Fan-speak?

Pointless non-sequitur, literally adds nothing to the conversation

 

[BerSTUzzi]

Any chance we can have discussions on a player in this draft vs Canucks General or Management chatter? Draft odds are set, get over it.

 

[Gstank]

Any chance we can have discussions on player in this draft vs Canucks General or Management chatter? Draft odds are set get over it.

Nope sorry, This fan base would rather debate over a 3% chance of Bedard then over anything actually productive or constructive

 

[clay]

Brayden Yager starting to heat up and play some of his best hockey in the playoffs. 10 points in 6 playoffs games and 17 points in his last 10 games overall. Has been very inconsistent this year but would not be surprised if he breaks out next year. His game Saturday against the Winnipeg Ice he looked like the best player on the ice. His decision making with and without the puck at times will drive you mad but after the top 5 you would be hard pressed to find a player with a better skill set and complete game.

This is the player I'm hoping we pick assuming Reinbacher is off the board. I think he'll pop off in the WHL next year after a fairly poor year relative to expectations.

 

[oceanchild]

"The point is we are making suboptimal decisions and it’s clearly measurable by what derives benefit and clearly moving up a couple spaces in the standings does not."


By "We", do you mean "You" actually own the team or is this Fan-speak?

As in the Canucks, we are all clearly rooting for the team and are tied to them. The pejorative we. If I owned the Canucks, we would have tanked hard for the generational player and not have traded for OEL and would not have passed on Mathew Tkachuk. But most of all, Jim Benning would never have been the GM as I strongly believe that Gillis was the best GM this franchise has every had and I would have let him rebuild when he wanted back in 2011/12

 

[Szechwan]

This is the player I'm hoping we pick assuming Reinbacher is off the board. I think he'll pop off in the WHL next year after a fairly poor year relative to expectations.

I don't know much about Yager, he hasn't been talked about a ton in our slot. What's the deal with him?

 

[clay]

I don't know much about Yager, he hasn't been talked about a ton in our slot. What's the deal with him?

Very strong skater with a lethal shot. Solid defensive game and a complete player. Has been referred to as a MacKinnon-lite (obviously doesn't have that kind of ceiling, but in terms of play style). If he was a 100 point player he would definitely be a top 5 pick - his lack of production this year has caused some to question his vision and use of his teammates. Some think he has just been snake bit and that the team hasn't jelled like it should.

 

[Just A Bit Outside]

Yager was very highly touted going into the season. Some even projected a potential Top 5 pick.

But he struggled and others excelled, so he has dropped down the list.

With a strong post season, he could climb back up some.

I'd 100% be onboard with selecting him if the Nucks select in the #11 range.

 

[Gstank]

Very strong skater with a lethal shot. Solid defensive game and a complete player. Has been referred to as a MacKinnon-lite (obviously doesn't have that kind of ceiling, but in terms of play style). If he was a 100 point player he would definitely be a top 5 pick - his lack of production this year has caused some to question his vision and use of his teammates. Some think he has just been snake bit and that the team hasn't jelled like it should.

Kind of reminds me of Barzal when he dropped because of lack of production. Im not saying this are the same player but it's an interesting comparsion. Barzal was also in a deep draft class

 

[Szechwan]

The Athletic has Yager listed at 5'10, 166lbs, which is quite a bit smaller than I would have expected based on that description of his play style.

Also interesting to see that Pronman has Danielson at 5, which is quite a bit higher than most IIRC. A few of the writeups I've read on him remind me of Scheifele.

 

[DFAC]

1. Bedard
2. Fantilli
3. Carlsson
4. Michkov
5. Smith
6. Benson
7. Reinbacher
8. Moore
9. Dvorsky
10. Yager
11. Barlow

Who do you guys pick?
-Leonard
-Sale
-ASP
-Cristall
-Danielson
-Honzek

This is assuming we drop a spot… Ive been saying how we need to draft an impact forward but this was before our late season pointless winning streak. I think I would actually pick ASP if this scenario played out

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

As in the Canucks, we are all clearly rooting for the team and are tied to them. The pejorative we. If I owned the Canucks, we would have tanked hard for the generational player and not have traded for OEL and would not have passed on Mathew Tkachuk. But most of all, Jim Benning would never have been the GM as I strongly believe that Gillis was the best GM this franchise has every had and I would have let him rebuild when he wanted back in 2011/12

So are you at least one of the Chairman's more rational younger brothers?

 

[Raistlin]

1. Bedard
2. Fantilli
3. Carlsson
4. Michkov
5. Smith
6. Benson
7. Reinbacher
8. Moore
9. Dvorsky
10. Yager
11. Barlow

Who do you guys pick?
-Leonard
-Sale
-ASP
-Cristall
-Danielson
-Honzek

This is assuming we drop a spot… Ive been saying how we need to draft an impact forward but this was before our late season pointless winning streak. I think I would actually pick ASP if this scenario played out

we have a 13% chance to drop a spot...... IF that happens, we need to trade that pick. That second group (minus Leonard... who is a winger) all have more notable flaws. Hoping one of Reinbacher, Yager or Moore falls to 11.

Optimal choice if keeping Miller. trade your 12th pick and find that young RHD in the trade market. Sign the 3C, pray for Gravikov not to cost you your left nut. Aim to make playoffs next year, prepare for being the new Flames for the forseeable future, Cap strapped, middling pipeline chasing playoffs every year.

Optimal choice if trading Miller. Dodge the latter half of Miller's albatross contract, draft one of the fallers... if not, ASP just for filling that organisational positional void. use one of the 1st rnd picks coming back to address a young center with a 2C ceiling (someone like Sillinger possibly) and the other on someone like Simashev. Aim to make playoffs in 2025. Obviously some of you will circle back to EP/Hughes wanting to win now. they wont get their wish in 2024, but there is a good chance that they will have a sustained window in 2025 onwards.... which covers the length of EP/Hughes 8 year contract anyways, their only way to consistently win over EP's career, not just prioritizing the short term.

 

[Gstank]

1. Bedard
2. Fantilli
3. Carlsson
4. Michkov
5. Smith
6. Benson
7. Reinbacher
8. Moore
9. Dvorsky
10. Yager
11. Barlow

Who do you guys pick?
-Leonard
-Sale
-ASP
-Cristall
-Danielson
-Honzek

This is assuming we drop a spot… Ive been saying how we need to draft an impact forward but this was before our late season pointless winning streak. I think I would actually pick ASP if this scenario played out

Danielsson and he is everything this team needs in a C and projects as a 3C at worse which is still something this team needs. To me he is the 4th best C available and I think he will be rising up draft boards closer to the draft.

My top 3 would be
Danielsson
Honzek, I really think this player will become a Rantanen or Hintez type of forwards which is something this team needs in its top 6
Leonard. I think if he sticks a C he will be a Boone Jenner type C and I love Boone Jenner as he is a unique type of C how's value is a lot more then what the scoresheet says

I dont really have a comparison for Sale as I havent seen him at all this year
Cristall seems like a Garland Floor, Gaudreau ceiling type of player. Which isnt a bad player but the type of player you can find in the mid to late rounds
ASP is simlar to Soderstrom and Heinola types of player and I dont see that being a fit for us at all

 

[MS]

I'm as shocked as you are.

Watching MS go from someone who only speaks what he believes to be true to the leader of the Rutherford Bro's and the biggest spin artist here with his catch phrase based posting, has been quite something.

It's absolutely incredible that you can read what I post and that's what you take from it. Holy shit, man.

Let me spell out for you what I'm actually posting :

We appear to have reasonably competent people making mostly reasonably competent decisions. The path/plan they've chosen is really the only thing they could realistically do given where the team was at in their competitive cycle and the quality of some of the young players here. I don't think they've been aggressive enough in enacting that plan, though, and they've also made some blunders - in particular the Boeser signing. The Boudreau situation was a disaster but that appears to be ownership's fault.

This was probably a bubble team last year (+/- 5 points from 8th seed) on merit, but were sunk by a generationally terrible goaltending event.

They might not be elite enough and the situation might be too f***ed by Benning to actually open a competing window here. If that's the case, we're looking at a full rebuild in 2 years. But until that point, pushing forward with some of the best players the franchise has ever had is the correct plan. And it's what literally any ownership/management group would be doing in the same situation.

But sure, 'Rutherford Bro'.

 

[Izzy Goodenough]

Allvin seemed less than enthralled about their draft pick. The most enthusiastic he got was when he said he could potentially use their thirds and fourths to move up.

It was as if he was trying to say, "So this is what the mushy middle feels like; being surrounded by a Sea of Granlunds."

 

[4Twenty]

It's absolutely incredible that you can read what I post and that's what you take from it. Holy shit, man.

Let me spell out for you what I'm actually posting :

We appear to have reasonably competent people making mostly reasonably competent decisions. The path/plan they've chosen is really the only thing they could realistically do given where the team was at in their competitive cycle and the quality of some of the young players here. I don't think they've been aggressive enough in enacting that plan, though, and they've also made some blunders - in particular the Boeser signing. The Boudreau situation was a disaster but that appears to be ownership's fault.

This was probably a bubble team last year (+/- 5 points from 8th seed) on merit, but were sunk by a generationally terrible goaltending event.

They might not be elite enough and the situation might be too f***ed by Benning to actually open a competing window here. If that's the case, we're looking at a full rebuild in 2 years. But until that point, pushing forward with some of the best players the franchise has ever had is the correct plan. And it's what literally any ownership/management group would be doing in the same situation.

But sure, 'Rutherford Bro'.

The real team is as you say still on the bubble. This is while going for it.

So the plan/path already wasted a season and as you say hasn’t been nearly aggressive enough. But it was the only way?

It certainly wasn’t the only way they could’ve handled things. This is where my beef is with the actual content of your posts (not the “nonsense this, video game that..” bs). You’re rigid in your belief this was the ONLY path forward. I think there were other paths. It’s ok to disagree but once you start with the borderline flaming of people disagreeing with something you’re being very absolutist….it’s come across as Rutherford bro-ish.

The rebuild is far past the point of no return now. The discussion that’s crossing multiple threads now is more philosophical and it’s looking back on the first season not looking forward. Forward is compete for Pete(rsson).

That’s why they need to trade this pick and any current prospect they have to get cap space to acquire now talent to be competing for the division next season.

 

[canuckfan75]

He sounds like a GM ready to draft away his 1st round pick then a guy excited to draft a new player