2023 NHL Entry Draft Discussion

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All the complaining over 3% better lottery odds is hilarious. I understand this is a “Hockey Futures” board and Prospects are more important than the team success, but come on. We are still in the Bedard lottery until May 8th and still have a chance to win it.

MS the poster understands and a few others but wanting your team to lose and the culture to be damaged beyond repair is not the right way of thinking. We already have a 1C, 1D and franchise Goaltender on the team that are all on the younger side. We are the 5th youngest team in the league and top 10 for goals and need to fix our Defence (Hronek trade) along with Demko playing like he has before this year.

The pieces are already there, Petey and Hughes aren’t 20 anymore and they are ready to take the next step as they are Superstars in the league.
 
Anyone have an opinion on Tom Willander? He is ranked low 1st/2nd round by many but Button has him 15th on his list and he's been climbing. Swedish, RHD, 6'1, 161 lbs according to HockeyDB (which incorrectly lists him as a winger) but looks like he has a frame that can fill out, very good skater. Doesn't have the flashy stats and stayed in the Swedish junior league to preserve his eligibility for US college hockey (he is committed to Boston U for next season).

Here's Button's comment from January:

Joining Sandin-Pellikka as a big riser is fellow Swedish defenceman Tom Willander, who leaps into the No. 15 spot from 26. Willander did not make the Swedish World Juniors roster but has four goals and 16 points in 25 games with Rogle BK J20.

“I think [they] are the two best defencemen in the draft,” said Button. “The combination of skating, brains, playmaking ability, poise, they got it.

“Obviously, if I would have had reason to believe that earlier I would have had them higher, but those two kids are big time difference-makers.”
 
All the complaining over 3% better lottery odds is hilarious. I understand this is a “Hockey Futures” board and Prospects are more important than the team success, but come on. We are still in the Bedard lottery until May 8th and still have a chance to win it.

MS the poster understands and a few others but wanting your team to lose and the culture to be damaged beyond repair is not the right way of thinking. We already have a 1C, 1D and franchise Goaltender on the team that are all on the younger side.
Demko will be 28 this year, he is not young.
 
Anyone have an opinion on Tom Willander? He is ranked low 1st/2nd round by many but Button has him 15th on his list and he's been climbing. Swedish, RHD, 6'1, 161 lbs according to HockeyDB (which incorrectly lists him as a winger) but looks like he has a frame that can fill out, very good skater. Doesn't have the flashy stats and stayed in the Swedish junior league to preserve his eligibility for US college hockey (he is committed to Boston U for next season).

Here's Button's comment from January:

Very interesting to see him say ASP and Wallinder are the top 2 dmen from this draft year. He has Reinbacher ranked 26

Hes also very high on Sale - says he sees a lot of Pastrnak in him
 
All the complaining over 3% better lottery odds is hilarious. I understand this is a “Hockey Futures” board and Prospects are more important than the team success, but come on. We are still in the Bedard lottery until May 8th and still have a chance to win it.

MS the poster understands and a few others but wanting your team to lose and the culture to be damaged beyond repair is not the right way of thinking. We already have a 1C, 1D and franchise Goaltender on the team that are all on the younger side. We are the 5th youngest team in the league and top 10 for goals and need to fix our Defence (Hronek trade) along with Demko playing like he has before this year.

The pieces are already there, Petey and Hughes aren’t 20 anymore and they are ready to take the next step as they are Superstars in the league.
already commented on a similar post, but do you not understand the difference between 6.5% and 3% is major. Big difference between one in fifteen, and one in thirty. Which is why I love playing poker with people like you.

I have posted that I think we make a step forward next year, and obviously unless we win in the lottery, our pick will do nothing for years. But I am sick of the Benning "trade the pick to make us marginally better, even though we are crap" attitude .... a team that is not in the playoffs should not keep making dumbass trades to hope to suck into the playoffs. This is the foundation of mediocrity that is epitome of life under FA.
 
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It's absolutely incredible that you can read what I post and that's what you take from it. Holy shit, man.

Let me spell out for you what I'm actually posting :

We appear to have reasonably competent people making mostly reasonably competent decisions. The path/plan they've chosen is really the only thing they could realistically do given where the team was at in their competitive cycle and the quality of some of the young players here. I don't think they've been aggressive enough in enacting that plan, though, and they've also made some blunders - in particular the Boeser signing. The Boudreau situation was a disaster but that appears to be ownership's fault.

This was probably a bubble team last year (+/- 5 points from 8th seed) on merit, but were sunk by a generationally terrible goaltending event.

They might not be elite enough and the situation might be too f***ed by Benning to actually open a competing window here. If that's the case, we're looking at a full rebuild in 2 years. But until that point, pushing forward with some of the best players the franchise has ever had is the correct plan. And it's what literally any ownership/management group would be doing in the same situation.

But sure, 'Rutherford Bro'.

If Peter and Hughes are really worthy, then we wouldn’t suck so bad.

Peter and Hughes sunk our season last year with their poor starts. Goalies sunk it this year.

That’s the problem when you have a poorly constructed team with no depth.
 
already commented on a similar post, but do you not understand the difference between 6.5% and 3% is major. Big difference between one in fifteen, and one in thirty. Which is why I love playing poker with people like you.

I have posted that I think we make a step forward next year, and obviously unless we win in the lottery, our pick will do nothing for years. But I am sick of the Benning "trade the pick to make us marginally better, even though we are crap" attitude .... a team that is not in the playoffs should not keep making dumbass trades to hope to suck into the playoffs. This is the foundation of mediocrity that is epitome of life under FA.
Some people dont understand that a 6.5% chance from 3% is more than doubling your odds.

Its like some people saying “nah I dont want more lottery tickets for free thank you - 1 is enough, theres not much difference anyways. You can keep the extra 100 lottery tickets”
 
already commented on a similar post, but do you not understand the difference between 6.5% and 3% is major. Big difference between one in fifteen, and one in thirty. Which is why I love playing poker with people like you.

I have posted that I think we make a step forward next year, and obviously unless we win in the lottery, our pick will do nothing for years. But I am sick of the Benning "trade the pick to make us marginally better, even though we are crap" attitude .... a team that is not in the playoffs should not keep making dumbass trades to hope to suck into the playoffs. This is the foundation of mediocrity that is epitome of life under FA.
it's a good thing that the negative outcome of a poker hand is getting nothing, which is completely the same as losing the nhl draft lottery
 
It's absolutely incredible that you can read what I post and that's what you take from it. Holy shit, man.

Let me spell out for you what I'm actually posting :

Its sometimes a good idea to actually spell out what you are posting.
We appear to have reasonably competent people making mostly reasonably competent decisions. The path/plan they've chosen is really the only thing they could realistically do given where the team was at in their competitive cycle and the quality of some of the young players here. I don't think they've been aggressive enough in enacting that plan, though, and they've also made some blunders - in particular the Boeser signing. The Boudreau situation was a disaster but that appears to be ownership's fault.
I would agree that they are a far more competent group than the previous one. This is one of the reasons I am scared for the plan they have chosen. I think they will be and should be fired after this plan fails. And who knows what idiots we get to have in charge of the rebuild... Then again... This year has been filled with mismanagement. Maybe they are not that big of a loss.

The bolded part; The state of the team was so devoid of assets and cap space, the things you use to add and improve any team, while being saddled with awful contracts that makes the team less likely to make the playoffs than not. They should have identified this to be the case and worked on this timeline instead of the one they went with.

The Miller extension is really the one that has the most dire long-term implications. Just as our cap situation will start to sort it self out he is going to be declining. He had the worst 30-40 game stretch I've seen a star player have here. Just like with Demko, if he played like a NHL center those games we are a bubble team.

Its the "oh you disagree with where I think this team is, you are a f***in idiot" talk that you repeat over and over and over and over and over and over that has brought me to the conclusion that you find absolutely incredible. Add to that how at every turn this year, that has been filled with office issues at the management level, you have defended or downplayed those issues.

The issues I remember you trying to spin:

- Health department. Especially the Mikheyev ACL situation...
- Boudreau handling was appalling. I don't really understand how you think the owner forced Rutherford to look like a bully on tv...
- Doerrie handling
- Boeser & cancer awareness night just shows how disjointed the management and coaching staff were, there should have been communication from the higher ups
- Hronek trade... I don't think people quite understand what kind of player we actually got here. This trade makes zero sense, even before his current contract runs out.

Im an old man. I am sorry if my memory serves me incorrectly.

This was probably a bubble team last year (+/- 5 points from 8th seed) on merit, but were sunk by a generationally terrible goaltending event.
I'll give you that Martin was horrible. With how many points they were able to get at the latter end of the season and with AHL / NCAA talent out performing Myers & OEL. Replacing those two with... two lukewarm bodies, and having Demko playing at league average level could have been enough.

I would still argue that goaltending is a position that deteriorates behind this kind of historically horrific defense. Only very few elite goaltenders are able to keep their form and wont start to cheat behind this level of horrific defensive play. We were comparable to the Anaheim Ducks defensively when Quinn Hughes was not on the ice.

I feel like you are trying to use the goalie situation as a get out of jail free card to justify your other takes for the state of the team. The quality of the team is that of a bubble team, if every single key player is healthy and having a career year...

They might not be elite enough and the situation might be too f***ed by Benning to actually open a competing window here. If that's the case, we're looking at a full rebuild in 2 years. But until that point, pushing forward with some of the best players the franchise has ever had is the correct plan. And it's what literally any ownership/management group would be doing in the same situation.

But sure, 'Rutherford Bro'.
I disagree that no manager would have taken the longer view here. First 2 years accumulate assets and sort the cap out, using some of those assets to rid us of a bad contract etc, work towards a contention window 2-3 years from when they joined. That would be 1-2 years from today. Having Demko go down was found money in year one of this plan. Having a top 10 even top 8 or 7 pick would have been an incredibly valuable piece, and lets just say right away and trade it for something immediate since you don't feel comfortable with the uncertainty of draft picks.

Instead they deployed their hockey club like a team competing for a playoff spot. Like a normal team. Unfortunately Jim Benning did not leave us a normal team. He left us a team with the cap structure and prospect pool of a team exiting its contention window.

#VideoGameLogic
 
it's a good thing that the negative outcome of a poker hand is getting nothing, which is completely the same as losing the nhl draft lottery
This is a great point in favor of tanking.

Even if you don't win, having the best possible hand gets you more.
 
we have a 13% chance to drop a spot...... IF that happens, we need to trade that pick. That second group (minus Leonard... who is a winger) all have more notable flaws. Hoping one of Reinbacher, Yager or Moore falls to 11.

Optimal choice if keeping Miller. trade your 12th pick and find that young RHD in the trade market. Sign the 3C, pray for Gravikov not to cost you your left nut. Aim to make playoffs next year, prepare for being the new Flames for the forseeable future, Cap strapped, middling pipeline chasing playoffs every year.

Optimal choice if trading Miller. Dodge the latter half of Miller's albatross contract, draft one of the fallers... if not, ASP just for filling that organisational positional void. use one of the 1st rnd picks coming back to address a young center with a 2C ceiling (someone like Sillinger possibly) and the other on someone like Simashev. Aim to make playoffs in 2025. Obviously some of you will circle back to EP/Hughes wanting to win now. they wont get their wish in 2024, but there is a good chance that they will have a sustained window in 2025 onwards.... which covers the length of EP/Hughes 8 year contract anyways, their only way to consistently win over EP's career, not just prioritizing the short term.
No, we do not "need to". Once again, it depends on what is available at that pick, and also what is to be gained by trading that pick.
 
In poker if you lose you get nothing, no matter how good a hand you held before you lost.

In the NHL draft even if you lose the lottery, the lower your pick was the better.
yes, if the stanley cup is awarded to the team with the highest draft picks, that would be correct.
 
already commented on a similar post, but do you not understand the difference between 6.5% and 3% is major. Big difference between one in fifteen, and one in thirty. Which is why I love playing poker with people like you.

I have posted that I think we make a step forward next year, and obviously unless we win in the lottery, our pick will do nothing for years. But I am sick of the Benning "trade the pick to make us marginally better, even though we are crap" attitude .... a team that is not in the playoffs should not keep making dumbass trades to hope to suck into the playoffs. This is the foundation of mediocrity that is epitome of life under FA.

Except it's not poker. In poker you are playing multiple hands in a short period of time. The odds mean something.

The draft is a one of. Odds aren't meaningless, but they don't matter. You're talking about having a 97% chance of not winning vs a 93.5% chance. Winning from either spot is a "miracle" but it's also beating the odds for whomever wins so just be in the lottery and see what happens.

Lottery odds and draft position at the expense of developing out superstars is short sighted.

Wherever we end up drafting, I want a D or C, even if it means losing "value" on the pick. If there's a winger that falls, look to trade back, but draft a D or C.
 
Benson went #9 to Detroit in the mock. Yea dropping a few spots for totally meaningless garbage time wins doesn't matter, or so I was told.
Yah but, if we didn't have those garbage time wins Petey and Hughes and Demko would have left, like right away, even though all are under contract, if we didn't play the crap out of them they would have bailed. EP especially, no chance he resigns if this team doesn't have a strong ending to the season, and even though this team has been pulling this crap for years with no success, this year is (somehow...) different. Nope our young players prefer medicore seasons and just missing the playoffs over building long term........

No team (cough, cough AV's) has ever built around players and collected prospects and won a cup before, no team (again, cough, cough the av's) has even been able to keep their young star players around during a rebuild...............
 
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I wonder if the Canucks would attempt to trade this pick for a young defenseman.

For example, the 11th overall pick to the Rangers for Braden Schneider.
I don't think New York has any interest in dealing Schneider. Lindgren on the other hand might be available as they'll be in a cap crunch crunch with Miller to re-sign for big bucks. Lindgren would be an excellent partner for Hronek.
 
Except it's not poker. In poker you are playing multiple hands in a short period of time. The odds mean something.

The draft is a one of. Odds aren't meaningless, but they don't matter. You're talking about having a 97% chance of not winning vs a 93.5% chance. Winning from either spot is a "miracle" but it's also beating the odds for whomever wins so just be in the lottery and see what happens.

Lottery odds and draft position at the expense of developing out superstars is short sighted.

Wherever we end up drafting, I want a D or C, even if it means losing "value" on the pick. If there's a winger that falls, look to trade back, but draft a D or C.

what is this nonsense.

odds are odds. 6% is twice as good as 3%. neither is "a miracle". they are just odds.

(also, "developing out superstars" is an awfully silly narrative.)
 
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