I kinda want Vegas to draft Bonk if only so they can flash this photo from his dad playing for the Vegas IHL team as a teenager.
Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft Thread
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I kinda want Vegas to draft Bonk if only so they can flash this photo from his dad playing for the Vegas IHL team as a teenager.
Lou Bloom
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They're not as easily projectable but that doesn't mean you pass on the position entirely in the 1st round no matter what.
In the 2016 draft Carter Hart was the consensus best goalie and went 48th overall and while he's had some up and downs outside of Tage Thompson there's nobody else I'd take over him that was drafted between 17-30.
In the 2017 draft Jake Oettinger was the consensus best goalie and went 26th overall and he's easily one of, if not the best picks in the back half of the 1st round.
2018 draft was a very weak goalie class and you were definitely better off waiting till late.
2019 draft Spencer Knight was the consensus best goalie and went 13th overall and outside of Cole Caufield there isn't anyone taken after him in the 1st round that is an obviously better pick at this stage.
2020 and 2021 drafts are too recent at this moment but the early returns of Askarov and Wallstedt had some great D+1 seasons and are performing adequately in the AHL currently, while Cossa has been much rougher by comparison.
It's not an easy position to evaluate but you certainly have a better chance at getting it right with higher end goalie prospects vs goalies selected later in the draft.
As for the Brennan pick, he's currently putting up an .883 sv% in the WHL, not sure that's the type of performance that should be used as a reason for drafting goalies late.
i kind of struggle to motivate myself for the 2023 draft. if the team doesn't fold, they will pick late in the first round (25+) and most of the really sexy picks will be gone by then.
the team doesn't need more enforcements on the d and picking a defenseman in one of the first two rounds would be a real luxury pick and only makes sense, if the team feels a very intriguing prospect really fell. i stated before that centre with size is, where i would put the need. the team also has no definite nhl level starting goaltender in the pipeline. schmid, daws and brennan are all hopefuls, but nothing, what encourage massive confidence. getting schmid (and maybe also daws) some more reps at the nhl level could help to evaluate, what we have in the farm system. i wouldn't mind to go goalie in one of the first two rounds, if the team feels the prospect has a higher ceiling or probability to become an nhl starter.
the team doesn't need more enforcements on the d and picking a defenseman in one of the first two rounds would be a real luxury pick and only makes sense, if the team feels a very intriguing prospect really fell. i stated before that centre with size is, where i would put the need. the team also has no definite nhl level starting goaltender in the pipeline. schmid, daws and brennan are all hopefuls, but nothing, what encourage massive confidence. getting schmid (and maybe also daws) some more reps at the nhl level could help to evaluate, what we have in the farm system. i wouldn't mind to go goalie in one of the first two rounds, if the team feels the prospect has a higher ceiling or probability to become an nhl starter.
With the Cal Petersen news yesterday, I was tempted to bump a 2019 draft thread on the Kings board. LA had pick #22 in 2019 and somebody suggested Knight as a possibility but most of the Kings fans were vehemently against that.
On one hand, that was the season where they had rehabilitated Jack Campbell (.928) and Cal Petersen (.924) had a nice cameo. Since they had hit on Jonathan Quick as a mid-round pick in 2005 (and to a lesser degree they got Martin Jones as an undrafted free agent in 2008), most of them were convinced that they could develop their next starter without expending a top pick. They had taken Jonathan Bernier in the 1st round in 2006 and most acted like the Kings passed on a treasure trove of perennial All-Stars; The guys taken between Bernier and the Kings next pick: Bryan Little, Jiri Tlusty, Michael Grabner, Ty Wishart.
Although I remember arguing with one poster who used the logic that all of the top scorers in the league were first rounders, so it would be foolish to use #22 on a goalie. I had to point out that most of the top scorers were blue chip guys who went in the top 5 if not top 3. It's hard to convince people that the F/D talent tends to drop off in the back end of the first round and you might be happy if you land an NHL regular. But some expect that they'll definitely land a David Pastrnak, John Carlson, or Corey Perry.
LA ended up taking Tobias Bjornfot. If he pans out, he'll probably be more of a depth defender.
I also remember Montreal fans stat watching to "prove" that they got a better goalie in the 7th round (Cayden Primeau) than Dallas got in the 1st round (Jake Oettinger). Aka further "proof" why taking a goalie in the 1st is a bad idea.
AfroThunder396
[citation needed]
Could this be a cautionary tale regarding Vanacek, Schmid and Daws?
We will continue to draft goaltenders if they are available, and should. Ari Ahonen was supposed to be the second coming. You don't count your chickens before they're hatched. Insert other saying here.
AfroThunder396
[citation needed]
You can never have enough goalies, stock the cupboard as often as you can. I think every year you take a goaltender sometime after pick ~50 overall, and statistically speaking you have to hit on one of them eventually.
I don't think I could ever justify taking a goalie in the top-15 right now, the skater talent in this generation is just phenomenal and generally far superior to the goalie talent. In the past 4 years we've seen guys like Boldy, Caufield, Mercer, Heinola, Lundell, Jarvis, etc be drafted in the 10-20 range. The risk/reward is just to high.
But when we get into the 20s-40s....I could be persuaded to take a bluechip goalie that high.
I don't think I could ever justify taking a goalie in the top-15 right now, the skater talent in this generation is just phenomenal and generally far superior to the goalie talent. In the past 4 years we've seen guys like Boldy, Caufield, Mercer, Heinola, Lundell, Jarvis, etc be drafted in the 10-20 range. The risk/reward is just to high.
But when we get into the 20s-40s....I could be persuaded to take a bluechip goalie that high.
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Classic Devil
Spirit of 1988
One goalie every draft.
Lou Bloom
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Yeah, most fans don't seem to realize that the back half of the 1st round tends to be very underwhelming in terms of talent compared to the top half. Goalies may not be the easiest projection but the same could be said for any player selected after the 15th pick in most draft classes, considering the probability of hitting on an impact player becomes increasingly slim the further you move back in the 1st round.
Now I will say that this draft class is trending to be a big exception in terms of it's depth of talent. We're still over half a year away from the draft but the amount of top end talent in this class is going to push a lot of really good prospects well into the back half of the 1st round and even into the 2nd round.
Radek Bonk is still my favorite all-time hockey player name.
Is that really true though? How accurate is it really that a draft is a deep draft? I feel like 2017 was played down as a poor draft. Not deep and not a lot of really high end talent. Looking at that draft now, it looks like that was the wrong evaluation on both fronts.
Lou Bloom
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It's pacing to be an exceptional draft class, easily the best since since 2015 and I think it could end up being even better. The forward class in particular is loaded with talent and there's going to be very highly thought of prospects getting pushed down into the latter portions of the 1st round just due to the depth of the class.
As for 2017 class it certainly is much better than most expected, with that said the depth of the class outside the 1st round is still not looking all that great. You have Robertson in the 2nd, Batherson in the 4th and a couple of goalies trending well in Swayman, Skinner and Tarasov but outside that there's not too many surefire NHL regulars outside the 1st round. And even inside the 1st round you have plenty of misses in the class, especially between 6-10 and towards the back half.
and brennan
it isn't wrong to spend a first or second round pick once every 5 years on a goalie.
Guadana
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There were sexy picks after 25 even in second round in 2020 draft, same picture in 2021, same picture in 2022. 2023 is the deepest draft, there are a lot of good and interesting players with first or second line potential in this range.
Great post.
I'm going to defend Bjornfot. I felt the Kings 2019 draft was spectacular at the time but, in retrospect, I (along with everyone else) overvalued Alex Turcotte, who looks like a bottom-6 type forward right now. There are some players who just baffle the draft community and Turcotte is one of them. There were no red flags with him coming out of the US-NTDP in 2018-19, his development curve kind of just leveled off.
After taking Turcotte at #5, the Kings had 3 other high picks at #22, #33 and #50. I felt they hit on them all -- Bjornfot at #22 was coming off a couple of outstanding tournaments for Sweden where he was the team's best defender, much better than Philip Broberg who Edmonton painfully reached on at #8. You knew Bjornfot's offensive ability was limited, but I still feel he has the ability to become a Siegenthaler-like shut-down type.
I loved -- just loved -- LA's pick of Arthur Kaliyev at #33. I had Kaliyev ranked just outside of the top 10, and I'd say with his wicked shot it would not be a stretch to think he might score 40 goals in the NHL some day. I'd be shocked if he didn't hit 30, which makes him an outstanding pick outside the 1st round even if there are some kinks with his 200-foot game.
I felt Fagemo was a solid pick at #50. I would have been more impressed had LA taken a higher-upside guy like Nick Robertson, Pavel Dorofeyev or Adam Beckman but it's not a stretch to envision Fagemo as a good middle-6 NHL-er, so a very good pick in the mid-2nd round.
I suppose the Kings 2019 draft will always be seen negatively because Turcotte at #5 with several future stars available, but I'm trying to learn from it because I remember being quite excited about what LA did at the time.
Kings did an interesting bit of poker with #22 and #33. They preordained that they wanted to end up with a forward and a D with those two picks but they didn't feel confident in the couple D that they liked would be available at #33. So they went with Bjornfot with the implication that Kaliyev was actually higher on their list. They tried to get Ottawa to swap #32 and #33 for Kaliyev but the Senators decided not to chance it (they took Shane Pinto).
I was not aware LA tried to move up. As it happened, both Pinto and Kaliyev look like great picks at the top of the 2nd round. Both of those guys very likely go top 20 in a 2019 re-draft.
Bob McKenzie's midseason rankings: Connor Bedard locked in at No. 1 in Bob McKenzie's mid-season NHL Draft Ranking | TSN
Lou Bloom
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I know we're loaded with defensive prospects, but Gulyayev or Simashev would be massive steals as late 1st/early 2nd rounders.
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Looks like all the top centers are in the 1st round. Hardly any centers ranked in the projected 2nd round.
I do feel strongly that we are very thin at C in the organization. We have two of the league's best in the NHL, but after that it's depth players on the NHL team and not a whole lot in the prospect pool. While I want a goal scorer on our top 6 wing, I don't really want to part with this draft's 1st.
The Devils first round pick in 2023 is actually quite important. The Devils have only just turned the corner, and though I'd certainly consider the NJ prospect pool in the top 3 in the NHL, they have two pressing needs -- at center and with interior/power forwards. It just so happens that not only is the 2023 class the strongest in almost a decade, but it is also particularly stocked at center and with power/interior forwards.
The fact is the Devils are currently not only a playoff team, but they're a team poised to remain one for a very long time and get even better, with a stunningly talented young core and some top end talent on the way. Though the front office would be wise to be willing to part with some future pieces in a trade for -- my guess is Timo Meier, but certainly a top-6 scoring wing -- we would have to guess that Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec are off the table and not going anywhere.
The likely centerpiece of a trade would have to be Holtz, in my opinion. I've almost resigned myself to the fact that he's gone, but the emergence of Arseni Gritsyuk and his likely move to North America next year makes Holtz pretty expendable. I'd also have to think that Kevin Bahl would be attractive to other teams, and I can't see him with a future in a future Devils LD depth chart stacked with Siegenthaler, Luke Hughes, Mukhamadullin and Okhotiuk etc.
Still, Tom Fitzgerald would and should be very reticent to give away the 2023 first round pick. As deep as the Devils are at both LD and RD, there are still major needs in the system which can turn into gaping holes pretty quick if not addressed, much like NJ realized in the 2022 draft with Right-Defensemen. At a glance, one would assume the Devils are set at center forever with a stunningly talented duo of Hughes and Hischier, but there are questions in the bottom 6 both now and in the future. Mikey McLeod and Jesper Boqvist are decent 4th liners, but McLeod's future is clouded by off-ice issues and Boqvist, though decent, is not a player you build around. Dawson Mercer is a very good bottom 6 center, but he's probably best utilized as a top 6 wing. It's tough to see Eric Haula having a long stay in New Jersey and, in recent NHL history, high-end 3Cs do not exactly come easily or cheaply.
The Devils are suffering a bit for poor decisions made in the 2020 and 2021 drafts. They basically burned picks on low-upside centers like Benjamin Baumgartner and Samu Salminen and, though I liked the Jaromir Pytlik pick at the time, injuries and the speed of higher levels have clearly stalled his development arc. Taking Chase Stillman was quite controversial at the time, and seems even moreso now with how good snubbed C Aatu Raty looks for the division-rival Islanders.
Ultimately, I think the Devils are going to try very hard not to include the 2023 1st rounder in a deal, because I agree with you that -- in this draft in particular -- the Devils will be really in position to hit a home run with the pick.
I think we have a couple players players like Haula, Boqvist, Mercer, and Sharangovich who can step in to a top 6 C role in case of injury. What we really need are depth C, and they aren't THAT hard to get via trade. That being said, I would really like to refill the C pipeline, but I think getting a stud winger takes priority at the moment.
I absolutely agree that any trade for Meier (or another top 6 forward) would likely revolve around Holtz. I also think Shara could very well be a casualty as I just don't see where he fits anymore. I didn't think of it but Grits is definitely expendable in a trade too. He looks promising, but he's more of the same of what we have. I'd have to consider him in a trade for a power/scoring winger if the other team asked.
BTW, have you watch Filmon at all? What do you think of him? Does he have a shot at the team, and/or could he be a trade chip. He seems more like what we need if he were to pan out.
The team clearly needs a fourth horseman to ride with Jack, Nico, and Jesper. If they can manage to swing a trade for an extended Meier with any prospects not named Hughes or Nemec you presume they would do that. I expect that SJ will want Mercer and that's where it might break down. I don't doubt NJ would offer Shara but who knows what the other competing offers might be? It seems logical and straight forward but apparently SJ has not let anyone talk to Lemieux about a new deal for Meier? If not it's hard to know if it's worthwhile since if you are NJ he has limited appeal as a rental. Of course if NJ cannot settle up with Bratt the whole thing takes on a different look. I am not thrilled that the open window hasn't led to anything with Bratt and I won't say I'm discouraged but this isn't that tricky based on the comps. Somebody is probably overplaying their hand. I hope they can hash it out.
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