Prospect Info: 2023 NHL Draft Thread

[DevilsHughes86]

So rigged, happy we weren't involved this year, we would have been screwed!! Actually feel bad for the Ducks

 

[Hisch13r]

So rigged, happy we weren't involved this year, we would have been screwed!! Actually feel bad for the Ducks

Yes the team that won 4 lotteries in an 11 year span would've been screwed. Yes the league that let Connor McDavid go to Edmonton and let Edmonton and NJ win the majority of lotteries for a decade rigs lotteries. Get a grip.

 

[Alex NJD]

Maybe I'm misremembering but aren't external lawyers or auditors or someone present at the live draw too?

 

[Satans Hockey]

Maybe I'm misremembering but aren't external lawyers or auditors or someone present at the live draw too?

Yeah they bring in some outside company to do the whole process and each team has a witness there for it as well.

 

[Hisch13r]

Maybe I'm misremembering but aren't external lawyers or auditors or someone present at the live draw too?

Yes. I believe it's Ernst and Young that conducts the lottery

 

[Guadana]

So they don't care they didn’t get Bedard ... they looked awful passed to me especially JD

everybody will be upset to lose Bedard. I mean. cmon. He is special guy. Even Blues and Cunacks should be upset, no matter how small their chances were.

 

[Brodeur]

Maybe I'm misremembering but aren't external lawyers or auditors or someone present at the live draw too?

Here's last years drawing. And here's an article from when we won in 2019: BLOG: Hugh Weber was the first to know

TL;DR - Drawing is done ~90 minutes before the TV reveal. Gives TV production time to get graphics/etc ready, unfortunately NBCSN screwed up in 2019 and leaked part of the order before the reveal. Teams send reps to witness and they have to surrender their cell phones so they don't leak results. Ernst & Young operates the ping pong machine.

Here's the 2019 drawing for fun:

 

[JrFischer54]

They really should show the balls getting picked. Like release all the sequences and let the fans track along make it a big deal where everyone finds out at the same time. Would be way more interesting then now

 

[NjDevsRR]

Hats off to Torts and Hart for doing the Lawd’s work and playing that bottom 3 team into purgatory this season.

 

[Alex NJD]

Had the lottos actually been rigged Arizona and Detroit would have definitely won one or two. If it were rigged I'd wager some of the changes would go something like

2015 Toronto/Arizona
2016 3rd would have gone to like Vancouver/Arizona and not Columbus
2017 Vancouver/Arizona/Vegas over us maybe? They were probably pretty happy with this one tbh
2018 DEFINITELY NOT Carolina with like 3% chance to move up to 2nd overall. They'd have preferred any other team in the bottom 10
2019 Detroit or LA over us. NYR and CHI tho made them happy
2020 They LOVED this one LOL
2021 Not awful for the NHL either
2022 Not us for sure, they'd probably have preferred any other team near the bottom of the league
2023 Again really good for them

Honestly more league favored one's then I thought

 

[None Shall Pass]

Yeah I mean it's bullshit that they let Chicago even have a pick, but Ernst & Young audits the whole process.

The NHL had around $5 billion in revenue last year. E&Y had like $45 billion.

If it was proven to be rigged, E&Y would lose unfathomable amounts of money due to a loss of trust, which is vital in the audit field.

There's no way the NHL lottery is rigged.

 

[Brodeur]

They really should show the balls getting picked. Like release all the sequences and let the fans track along make it a big deal where everyone finds out at the same time. Would be way more interesting then now

I wouldn't be opposed to that, but the tin foil hat crowd would still find a way to claim it was fishy.

I should stay out of the main board threads, it's unbearable. After we won in 2019, I had some very well-educated buddies who were complaining to me about things being rigged. Somehow my friend with two PhDs didn't understand that Colorado with the "best" odds with 18.5% also meant they had an 81.5% chance of not getting #1. Or a 50.6% chance of getting bumped down to #4. Instead he claimed the league was somehow against Colorado and I had to remind him that they won the MacKinnon lottery in recent memory.

But I suppose casinos exist because people don't understand math.

 

[Rhodes 81]

Yeah, it's not rigged, it's just bullshit

 

[Bcap88]

Maybe I'm misremembering but aren't external lawyers or auditors or someone present at the live draw too?

Goes through an accounting firm

 

[JrFischer54]

Yeah I mean it's bullshit that they let Chicago even have a pick, but Ernst & Young audits the whole process.

The NHL had around $5 billion in revenue last year. E&Y had like $45 billion.

If it was proven to be rigged, E&Y would lose unfathomable amounts of money due to a loss of trust, which is vital in the audit field.

There's no way the NHL lottery is rigged.

I’m not saying it’s rigged or anything but using the “system” as proof that it’s not rigged isn’t a good argument imo. Billionaires being checked by the companies that deals with billionaires isn’t really the rock solid trust factor that it used to be.

Has the nhl ever come out and say why they don’t broadcast this live? Like they make a video as proof but only release it after?

 

[Dylan9z9]

Oilers don't look so good tonight

 

[Brodeur]

I’m not saying it’s rigged or anything but using the “system” as proof that it’s not rigged isn’t a good argument imo. Billionaires being checked by the companies that deals with billionaires isn’t really the rock solid trust factor that it used to be.

Has the nhl ever come out and say why they don’t broadcast this live? Like they make a video as proof but only release it after?

Presumably they don't do it live because it's not great television. I'd imagine they have to dumb it down to the lowest common denominator who can understand a reveal with logos rather than a drawing of "8-2-3-11" and wondering if that's good or not.

I couldn't help myself. I had to explain on the main boards how choosing 4 balls out of 14 yields 1,001 combinations. Always funny when people complain about the process but don't understand how it works.

 

[Captain3rdLine]

I’m not saying it’s rigged or anything but using the “system” as proof that it’s not rigged isn’t a good argument imo. Billionaires being checked by the companies that deals with billionaires isn’t really the rock solid trust factor that it used to be.

Has the nhl ever come out and say why they don’t broadcast this live? Like they make a video as proof but only release it after?

I mean doing so would be a little more complicated and I think they like to make more of a show out of it.

But by all means EY is an extremely trustworthy company. Their entire business is built on trust and the repercussions for being involved in a scandal would be enormous. The chances of that are very slim to none. That along with the fact that all the teams have representatives in there is more than enough to provide a rock solid trust factor.

Unless you think all the organizations in the league are in on it which wouldn’t make sense, then only possible way the lottery could be rigged is if they do something with the machine and balls which is also extremely difficult and unlikely and having it on live tv would have absolutely no bearing on this.

 

[Guadana]

So rigged, happy we weren't involved this year, we would have been screwed!! Actually feel bad for the Ducks

They got Fantilli to add to their offensive line. They will be okay.

 

[Brodeur]

Trying to talk my Ducks friend off a ledge. He knows nothing of prospects, but he had convinced himself that Bedard to the next pick was like LeBron to Darko or something.

San Jose may have an interesting dilemma at #4 though.

 

[Guadana]

Trying to talk my Ducks friend off a ledge. He knows nothing of prospects, but he had convinced himself that Bedard to the next pick was like LeBron to Darko or something.

San Jose may have an interesting dilemma at #4 though.

They have not so well center prospects. Columbus have better young centers. If they will draft Carlsson than SJ should think twice. Because Smith is fun but he will start his nhl career after a year. And he isn't the type of a player who will start right from the day one. But he is a center. On the other hand Michkov is really wanting to play in nhl and will be a star. And he can carry/drive a line. Interesting choice.

 

[Guttersniped]

I wouldn't be opposed to that, but the tin foil hat crowd would still find a way to claim it was fishy.

I should stay out of the main board threads, it's unbearable. After we won in 2019, I had some very well-educated buddies who were complaining to me about things being rigged. Somehow my friend with two PhDs didn't understand that Colorado with the "best" odds with 18.5% also meant they had an 81.5% chance of not getting #1. Or a 50.6% chance of getting bumped down to #4. Instead he claimed the league was somehow against Colorado and I had to remind him that they won the MacKinnon lottery in recent memory.

But I suppose casinos exist because people don't understand math.

Devils fans, of all people, raging about it being rigged should tell you how pointless it is to try explain how randomness explains what happens.

For some people, I don’t like the results = fixed. The 3rd place team jumping up isn’t even that shocking but people are still barking about this. (Vs just saying you don’t like Chicago winning. You can just say that sucks if that’s what you feel, no need to be irrational or weird about it.)

And anyone who says “rigged”, just to be clear, the four years when we won weren’t rigged, right? Or does the NHL love the Devils in particular too?

Our lottery luck was phenomenal:
2011 New Jersey 1st (8th Seed > moved to 4th)
2017 New Jersey 1st (5th Seed)
2019 New Jersey 1st (3rd Seed)
2022 New Jersey 2nd (5th Seed)

And Chicago’s luck is eerily similar:
1999 Chicago 1st (8th Seed > moved to 4th)
2007 Chicago 1st (5th Seed)
2019 Chicago 3rd (12th Seed)
2023 Chicago 1st (3rd Seed)

Edmonton got their four 1OAs mostly by just outsucking everyone.

2010 Edmonton 1st (1st Seed)
2011 Edmonton 1st (1st Seed, didn’t win but when we won they stayed in 1st)
2012 Edmonton 1st (2nd Seed)*
2015 Edmonton 1st (3rd Seed)**

*Columbus was 1st Seed in 2012 and have had terrible lottery luck. (Including the terrible luck of having the 2OA in 2012 lol.)

**The NHL changed the odds because they were tired of the Oilers sucking their way to 1OAs over and over again.
Of course a slightly better Edmonton wins the new lottery in 2015. So they were lucky here. (FIXED! RIGGED!)

Buffalo of course didn’t f*** around and managed to be the worst team in the NHL two more times (so they did it an impressive 4 times) to get their two 1OA picks. That’s called putting in work.

Spoiler: The change in odds (2001-14 vs 2015)

2014 (Florida won)

2015 New Fun! Odds

 

[JrFischer54]

Presumably they don't do it live because it's not great television. I'd imagine they have to dumb it down to the lowest common denominator who can understand a reveal with logos rather than a drawing of "8-2-3-11" and wondering if that's good or not.

I couldn't help myself. I had to explain on the main boards how choosing 4 balls out of 14 yields 1,001 combinations. Always funny when people complain about the process but don't understand how it works.

People eat that shit up now it would be a massive draw and way better then the tv fiascos when they showed the winners a couple years ago weekes tonight and last year knowing the order before it was done.

 

[jkrdevil]

Here is the actual drawing.



As you can see there is a legalese they have to go through and a specific procedure (drawing a number every 20 seconds) that doesn’t make it tv friendly. Bettman even holds up the Bergen Record as proof of life.

Btw, the NBA doesn’t televise the actual drawing either.

 

[My3Sons]

Here is the actual drawing.



As you can see there is a legalese they have to go through and a specific procedure (drawing a number every 20 seconds) that doesn’t make it tv friendly. Bettman even holds up the Bergen Record as proof of life.

Btw, the NBA doesn’t televise the actual drawing either.

My college frat brother is with thr accounting firm that does thr NBA drawing. Not sure if it is the same one that does thr NHL? He was on the NBA show a couple of years ago and admitted he knew the winners before they were revealed on tv. I recall joking with him that I’d know the NBA draft lottery was rigged if the Mets won it.