2023 NHL Draft situation

[x Tame Impala]

Trading #3 for any two picks in the 5-14…

2020: no
2019: Definitely
2018: yes
2017: yes
2016: yes
2015: definitely
2014: not a chance
2013: yes
2012: yes
2011: maybe
2010: yes

Damn maybe it would be the better option

 

[Bubba88]

At 3, I honestly wouldn't be thrilled with Carlsson. It's a serviceable pick, but not one that'll make me jump for joy.

Honestly I would draft Cristall or Leonard at 3. Most people would call it a reach and scrutinize the pick, but I think when you fall in love with a prospect you just gotta go for it.

Could they both be available at 7 and 11? Maybe. But it's still a risk, and I'd probably just hold on to 3rd overall and get my guy.

Dach all over again?

Take the safe pick, take Carlsson at #3. He's that good.

 

[Roe Jaynick]

Take the safe pick, take Carlsson at #3. He's that good.

This. I don´t think there is no GM or scout who would take Cristall before Carlsson.

 

[dj Mahoney]

I think I'd sooner move down a bit and take assets, then grab either Will Smith or Zach Benson . Carlsson seems blah.

 

[BHFAN92]

I’d consider it for 5 and 14

I would then package 14 and Tampa 1st rd pick plus some 2nds to move back up into top 10. I would love to walk away with Will Smith & Cristall...I would even be willing to roll the dice on Michkov if somehow we could get 2 picks in top 10

 

[Roe Jaynick]

I think I'd sooner move down a bit and take assets, then grab either Will Smith or Zach Benson . Carlsson seems blah.

Care to elborate?

He is playing against men in one of the best pro leagues in Europe. In his last seven games with Orebro he is 5+2. He might be most promising Swedish forward since Niklas Backstrom.

 

[dj Mahoney]

Care to elborate?

He is playing against men in one of the best pro leagues in Europe. In his last seven games with Orebro he is 5+2. He might be most promising Swedish forward since Niklas Backstrom.

He looked okay at world jrs , I am probably wrong, just a feeling . Smith and Benson seem more of a sure thing , they probably a lower ceiling but higher floor.

 

[Putt Pirate]

28. Arizona, 52 pts, 63 GP, 23rd-toughest SOS remaining (via
@tankathon)
29. Anaheim, 50 pts, 63 GP, 26th SOS
30. San Jose, 48 pts, 63 GP, 17th SOS
31. Chicago, 47 pts, 62 GP, 13th SOS
32.Columbus, 46 pts, 63 GP, 12 SOS

Going to be tough to out tank Columbus to the bottom.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Take the safe pick, take Carlsson at #3. He's that good

He's a 2C.

At 3rd overall, I would hope for something more. It's nothing against Carlsson. He's a good prospect.

 

[BHawk21]

He's a 2C.

At 3rd overall, I would hope for something more. It's nothing against Carlsson. He's a good prospect.

you have no idea what he is

 

[Putt Pirate]

For some reason I cannot explain he seems a little Dach-ish with the pass first mentality. But that could be because he is a boy in a mens league too.

 

[Kevin Musto]

you have no idea what he is

I think NHL scouts would share that opinion.

Wasn't it Bob's list where he interviewed scouts that said Fantilli was a 2C? That was back in January, and I'm sure those guys have re-evaluated that ridiculous stance, but if they thought Fantilli was a 2C, they definitely thought that was Carlsson's ceiling.

 

[jls24]

#2 Adam Fantilli
#26.Quitin Musty
#34.Caden Price
#46.Gracyn Sawchyn
#58.William Whitelaw

That would be an absolute haul of talent.

 

[Sinbad]

He looked okay at world jrs , I am probably wrong, just a feeling . Smith and Benson seem more of a sure thing , they probably a lower ceiling but higher floor.

He was apparently also sick at the World Jrs.

 

[Bubba88]

He's a 2C.

At 3rd overall, I would hope for something more. It's nothing against Carlsson. He's a good prospect.

He has 1st line Potential. He is #3 or #4 with Michkov.

 

[Northernhawk]

That would be an absolute haul of talent.

Could happen!

 

[Kevin Musto]

He has 1st line Potential. He is #3 or #4 with Michkov.

That's what the media is saying, sure.

I have different opinions. So do NHL teams.

As the great Mike Doneghey once said: It’s not necessarily what The Athletic might have, what Craig Button might have or what Sam Cosentino might have, what Central Scouting might have. They’re not building the Blackhawks. They’re putting names on the board where they think those guys are gonna go.

 

[Roe Jaynick]

He's a 2C.

At 3rd overall, I would hope for something more. It's nothing against Carlsson. He's a good prospect.

With all due respect you are wrong. His upside is 1C and star player. It will remain to see if he ever reaches that upside but claiming that he will be 2C is way out of line atm.

 

[Roe Jaynick]

I have different opinions. So do NHL teams.

You are not building Blackhawks either. We can appreciate your opinions but just because you have opinions doesn´t automatically make them truth.

Mike Doneghy on Leo Carlsson:
"He’s been on the radar for over a year now, but his game continued to grow. And of course we saw Nik Blomgren and Mats Hallin a lot there in Sweden and (General Manager) Kyle (Davidson) obviously saw him in October when we were there. So we have a very good book about him and he’s another one, he’s a really good player. He has size. He has quick hands. His head is always up wherever he is in the zone. And I don’t think people in Halifax got a really real picture of him because he missed a game with the flu, he’s been sick all week and he’s been doing his best to play. So you know, the height, the skating, the chin up, the hockey IQ, he checks all the boxes."

 

[hawksfan50]

So I ran Tankathon NHL Draft Simulator this morning about 20 minutes apart in 2 sets of ten tries each...

CHI currently 2nd last pre-lotto ...CBJ in last..

First 10 tries: Hawks got 1st 2 times, held 2nd 3 times, and bumped to 3rd pick 5 times.

In the 2nd set of 10 tries Hawks got 1st 3 times(3 consecutive times on 1st 3 tries!),,held 2nd 2 times,got bumped to 3rd 5 times...

So unlike posted chance% ,Hawks won1st from 2nd worst pre-lotto spot at a 25% rate(5 firsts out 20 tries...

But this means a 75% rate of not gettibg first.
Now if I ran this 10 setscofc19 maybevtge %of success gets lowered to posted probability of winning 1st %...

But my small sample may indicate that maybe 2nd worst pre-lotto can be a bit luckier than probability odds state.

But CBJ akso got 1st 25% ofvthe tries...so maybevthis means 1st or 2nd worst finishes do nit make much difference for a shot at 1st..

Hawks also held 2nd 5 times in 20 tries...
Again that isa 25% rate of holding onto 2nd...
So that means a 59% chancexwe get 1st orc2ns...but also ac59% chance we get bumped to 3rd ..

Again if I ran this 100 times instead of just 20 ,it woukd probably reduce down to what posted probability rate is forctgex2nd worstvfinisher pre-lotto.

But of Course ...the NHL only does 2 actuak draws...thec1stvto determine thec1st pick and then with that team removed,they draw again for 2nd pick and then per seeding by reverse finish from the remainder of the trams after 1st and 2nd were determined.

Just to show how bad things can get, STL won't get 1st pick on the first draw I did out of the 20.
Luckily Hawks ddi not get bumped to 4th on this try ..only to3rd.
In fact in none of my 20 attempts did Hawks ever get bumped to4th...which shows how rare it it for 2 teams finishing with better records than the Hawks both winning and pushing CBJ and Chicago down 2 spots from last and 2nd last prior to lotto...thatcwiykd be a worst case scenario.

Bad enough IF hated Blues or Canucks got 1st ...but if either got 1stxand anotger team with more points than Hawks at finish bumps CHI down to4th ...that would be the greatest kick in the teeth ge hockey gods could foist on us..
So hope rare scenario like that does not happen.

Also if Hawjs get neither Bedard or Fantilli ...I hope they go to Eastern Conference teams and especially not to Central Division rival like STL ..Do you want them lighting it up against the Hawks in the CentralDivision 4 point swing games with our Division rivals? HELL NO!

 

[Kevin Musto]

You are not building Blackhawks either. We can appreciate your opinions but just because you have opinions doesn´t automatically make them truth.

Mike Doneghy on Leo Carlsson:
"He’s been on the radar for over a year now, but his game continued to grow. And of course we saw Nik Blomgren and Mats Hallin a lot there in Sweden and (General Manager) Kyle (Davidson) obviously saw him in October when we were there. So we have a very good book about him and he’s another one, he’s a really good player. He has size. He has quick hands. His head is always up wherever he is in the zone. And I don’t think people in Halifax got a really real picture of him because he missed a game with the flu, he’s been sick all week and he’s been doing his best to play. So you know, the height, the skating, the chin up, the hockey IQ, he checks all the boxes."

I'm familiar with his thoughts on Carlsson. Nothing there suggests that he's a 1C. If anything it's closer to 2C because he doesn't use words like elite or game breaking and whatnot. It's positive, but reserved. The kinds of things you'd say about a top 5, but not top 3 prospect.

And I don't claim to have the definitive truth. But those that claim what hockey media tells them to be the definitive truth are no better.

I've seen lots of tape on these guys. Most people haven't.

 

[Cubs2024wildcard]

So lemme get this straight…

NHL scouts who get paid money to scout say Carlsson is an elite talent and a consensus top five pick in a rather deep draft means nothing compared to “watching a lot of tape”…..

And for the record I think Michkov is the second best talent in this draft.

 

[Roe Jaynick]

I'm familiar with his thoughts on Carlsson. Nothing there suggests that he's a 1C. If anything it's closer to 2C because he doesn't use words like elite or game breaking and whatnot. It's positive, but reserved. The kinds of things you'd say about a top 5, but not top 3 prospect.

And I don't claim to have the definitive truth. But those that claim what hockey media tells them to be the definitive truth are no better.

I've seen lots of tape on these guys. Most people haven't.

Well what I´ve seen and heard of him he is the most promising forward talent from Sweden since Niklas Backstrom. Some see Mats Sundin on him. Some say he might be most promising forward talent from Sweden since Peter Forsberg. I´m not saying what he will be but he is elite prospect in draft that has a lot of elite prospects to be picked. And he is right there in the top 4 right now. You can say and think what you will.

 

[Cubs2024wildcard]

Well what I´ve seen and heard of him he is the most promising forward talent from Sweden since Niklas Backstrom. Some see Mats Sundin on him. Some say he might be most promising forward talent from Sweden since Peter Forsberg. I´m not saying what he will be but he is elite prospect in draft that has a lot of elite prospects to be picked. And he is right there in the top 4 right now. You can say and think what you will.

That’s funny you said this because the person who gets compared alot to Carlsson from the guys who watch him is Sundin and not too many in the media put them together.

I don’t think Sundin was a 2C outside of a stacked team, but that’s just me.

 

[Roe Jaynick]

Well I don´t claim anything that Carlsson will be but to say he isn´t elite talent or doesn´t have a first line potential is way out of line. I´m not going to pretend here to be smarter than everyone else but there is enough evidence that Carlsson has star potential. Just not the media hype.