HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[An0n]

Man, its easy to say in hindsight but Sergachev for Drouin, at the time it was done, was a very nice trade for US.

Drouin was absolutely stellar in junior. He carried TBL to the ECF with a rookie Kucherov when stamkos was injured. He had 14 points in 17games as a 20yo, that was after his rant. He played absolutely electric hockey.

He then had 53 points in 73 games the season prior us trading for him.

He was outright a potential star player with an electric style, and at this time, the most promising Quebecois player even above Huberdeau. I think we had a good preview of that when he started a season with 15points in 18games before injuring himself.

I agree with you. Obviously he don't have the "it" or the mental skill necessary to assume his talent but any prospects with his level talent is worthy of a very high draft pick.

Btw, were you referring to Benson or Smith ?

Some players really aren’t made for the MTL market and it broke Drouin

 

[Jaynki]

Some players really aren’t made for the MTL market and it broke Drouin

I agree. I hope he will be able to have a couple of good years away and finally display all of his talent.

On the other hand, some thrive here like Subban and Kovalev.

Do you think someone like Wright would have thrived here ?

 

[An0n]

I agree. I hope he will be able to have a couple of good years away and finally display all of his talent.

On the other hand, some thrive here like Subban and Kovalev.

Do you think someone like Wright would have thrived here ?

No, even though I was on the Wright bandwagon all the way, with hindsight not picking him was the right thing to do.

Now, I’m not sold on Slaf either but I don’t criticize the pick anymore since my pick wouldn’t be better.

 

[WeThreeKings]

You are equating two completely different things (potential vs. pro-readyness). It's not a "IF" "Then" situation at all. "If Slaf plays at the world and Dvorsky doesn't, then Slaf is a better prospect" <== plain no.

Slaf is a lot more pro-ready, it doesn't mean at all he will be the best player or athlete when they are both 23-25 years old. Dvorsky still needs 2-3 years to be at the level of physical development Slaf is now.

+Dvorsky is not 18 yet, don't you have to be 18 to play at the world? Wikipedia says you need a waiver if you are under 18. Maybe Slovakia just out of prudence didn't seek it for Dvorsky since U18 players at the worlds are extremely rare, the kid had 3 international tournaments this year already. Slaf was 18. Bedard is not at the worlds either, he's 17 too - would think he would be selected ahead of Fantilli... Fantilli is 18 1/2 - that's why he's there.

Isn't that the argument for Dvorsky, though? His defensive and face-off game keeps getting called back to, as part of a reason to consider him. If those were his strengths, surely they would lend themselves to pro readiness and also make him an attractive option for the Worlds? It's clear that both scouts and Slovakia hockey think Slafkovsky was a better prospect at the same age than Dvorsky is.

Slafkovsky has a profile that continues to show more potential upside than Dvorsky. Just his sheer size and ability to skate at that size. The hands, the periodic dominance against NHL peers and pro hockey players that hint at something special and unique should he attain it.

Not sure about the age thing but Bedard declined to go to the Worlds. He wanted to prepare for the draft. I don't think a simple waiver is stopping player or country from using someone that they felt would improve their chances to win.

 

[le_sean]

You are equating two completely different things (potential vs. pro-readyness). It's not a "IF" "Then" situation at all. "If Slaf plays at the world and Dvorsky doesn't, then Slaf is a better prospect" <== plain no.

Slaf is a lot more pro-ready, it doesn't mean at all he will be the best player or athlete when they are both 23-25 years old. Dvorsky still needs 2-3 years to be at the level of physical development Slaf is now.

+Dvorsky is not 18 yet, don't you have to be 18 to play at the world? Wikipedia says you need a waiver if you are under 18. Maybe Slovakia just out of prudence didn't seek it for Dvorsky since U18 players at the worlds are extremely rare, the kid had 3 international tournaments this year already. Slaf was 18. Bedard is not at the worlds either, he's 17 too - would think he would be selected ahead of Fantilli... Fantilli is 18 1/2 - that's why he's there.

All Dvorsky has done is show he’s superior to children. Slaf showed he belonged with men and could stand out against them. The “Dvorsky needs 2-3 years to be at the physical level of Slafkovsky” is an argument founded upon nothing. Slafkovsky proved more at the same age and was a lot more raw than Dvorsky.

 

[Deam78]

Man, its easy to say in hindsight but Sergachev for Drouin, at the time it was done, was a very nice trade for US.

Drouin was absolutely stellar in junior. He carried TBL to the ECF with a rookie Kucherov when stamkos was injured. He had 14 points in 17games as a 20yo, that was after his rant. He played absolutely electric hockey.

He then had 53 points in 73 games the season prior us trading for him.

He was outright a potential star player with an electric style, and at this time, the most promising Quebecois player even above Huberdeau. I think we had a good preview of that when he started a season with 15points in 18games before injuring himself.

I agree with you. Obviously he don't have the "it" or the mental skill necessary to assume his talent but any prospects with his level talent is worthy of a very high draft pick.

Btw, were you referring to Benson or Smith ?

Every time I think of Drouin:

"If you are not careful, your talents will take you places your character can't keep you" - Eric Thomas

 

[SOLR]

All Dvorsky has done is show he’s superior to children. Slaf showed he belonged with men and could stand out against them. The “Dvorsky needs 2-3 years to be at the physical level of Slafkovsky” is an argument founded upon nothing. Slafkovsky proved more at the same age and was a lot more raw than Dvorsky.

It's based on nothing? How about 99% of prospects need 2-3 more years from the time they are 17. It's so big of a trend that you can't even see it. "It's based on nothing" ...this is probably the most ridiculous argument I have ever seen written anywhere.

Slaf is also more NHL ready at the same age than Pasta, Gaudreau, Kucherov, Forsberg, Sakic, St-Louis, etc X 1000.

 

[Jaynki]

It's based on nothing? How about 99% of prospects need 2-3 more years from the time they are 17. It's so big of a trend that you can't even see it. "It's based on nothing" ...this is probably the most ridiculous argument I have ever seen written anywhere.

Slaf is also more NHL ready at the same age than Pasta, Gaudreau, Kucherov, Forsberg, Sakic, St-Louis, etc X 1000.

Both can be true. He is more ready than those guy but like those guy, he is also very raw and may grow and get way faster and stronger in a 2-3 year spanm

 

[SOLR]

Isn't that the argument for Dvorsky, though? His defensive and face-off game keeps getting called back to, as part of a reason to consider him. If those were his strengths, surely they would lend themselves to pro readiness and also make him an attractive option for the Worlds? It's clear that both scouts and Slovakia hockey think Slafkovsky was a better prospect at the same age than Dvorsky is.

They are, Slaf struggled on these IQ tests with the habs this year. He's an athlete who needs to learn things.

Dvorksy knows things, but he needs to be stronger, faster etc. To put so much emphasis on a 17 years old going to the world or not is a bit weird.

 

[WeThreeKings]

They are, Slaf struggled on these IQ tests with the habs this year. He's an athlete who needs to learn things.

Dvorksy knows things, but he needs to be stronger, faster etc. To put so much emphasis on a 17 years old going to the world or not is a bit weird.

I'm not putting emphasis on it - I'm refuting the claim that Dvorsky is a better prospect than Slaf at the same age.

Nothing points to this being true.

 

[SOLR]

Both can be true. He is more ready than those guy but like those guy, he is also very raw and may grow and get way faster and stronger in a 2-3 year spanm

Granted, but if both were true, Slaf would have been blowing up the competition earlier. He's shown a long road of good IQ, good everything, but never great.

I'm not putting emphasis on it - I'm refuting the claim that Dvorsky is a better prospect than Slaf at the same age.

Nothing points to this being true.

As I said, I think a lot points to that being true. The NHL is mostly an IQ test. And Dvorsky's is way ahead of Slaf on a lot of these dimensions. He has some road to go physically, but when they will be more physically equals the difference will appear. Like when they were at that U18 tournament where Dvorsky was 15 and Slaf 17. Dvorsky was the more important player. I think by the time Dalibor will be 22, he will be considered to be a better player than Slaf (not in the meantime).

 

[WeThreeKings]

Granted, but if both were true, Slaf would have been blowing up the competition earlier. He's shown a long road of good IQ, good everything, but never great.


As I said, I think a lot points to that being true. The NHL is mostly an IQ test. And Dvorsky's is way ahead of Slaf on a lot of these dimensions. He has some road to go physically, but when they will be more physically equals the difference will appear. Like when they were at that U18 tournament where Dvorsky was 15 and Slaf 17. Dvorsky was the more important player. I think by the time Dalibor will be 22, he will be considered to be a better player than Slaf (not in the meantime).

I disagree that the NHL is mostly an IQ test.. we are seeing quite the opposite happening between our eyes. Dylan Cozens is getting paid and producing. That's one example of someone with subpar IQ but great physical tools and skills. Fantilli is going to go 2nd overall with similar IQ limitations and will be able to tools himself to a very productive and lucrative career.

The IQ is more of a necessity when you don't have athletic and physical advantages. Dvorsky is more of a victim to IQ than Slafkovsky because of his feet and a lack of stand-out skills outside of his shot. And we have seen that Dvorsky has struggled to use his IQ to his advantage against men to this point.

 

[Skip Bayless]

I disagree that the NHL is mostly an IQ test.. we are seeing quite the opposite happening between our eyes. Dylan Cozens is getting paid and producing. That's one example of someone with subpar IQ but great physical tools and skills. Fantilli is going to go 2nd overall with similar IQ limitations and will be able to tools himself to a very productive and lucrative career.

The IQ is more of a necessity when you don't have athletic and physical advantages. Dvorsky is more of a victim to IQ than Slafkovsky because of his feet and a lack of stand-out skills outside of his shot. And we have seen that Dvorsky has struggled to use his IQ to his advantage against men to this point.

Dylan Cozens and Slaf have low hockey IQ?

Dylan Cozens looked like one of the most well rounded prospects in junior, and Slaf was a puck magnet at the biggest stages before the NHL. He was literally playing god for Slovakia.

Am I missing something here?

 

[ReHabs]

I also think he would be right up there with Fantilli and Carlsson. Not saying he would be above them but in the debate with them.

We made a big deal of his dubious liiga production but he had very strong metrics, stronger than productive player like Kemell.

We wanted to diminish his olympic games and his world cup. But we can see with the current performance of Fantilli and Carlsson that what Slaf did was actually very, very impressive. And its not a knock on Carlsson or Fantilli, they are very good. Its really about what Slaf has done. Slaf had 9 points on 20 total team Slovakia goal.

When we combine Slafkovsky performance at the Hlinka, Olympic Games, World Cup, end of season and playoffs where he doubled his output per/60. I think we have something way more telling than his first half of season in the Liiga.

Its really all of this combined with the unique package of abnormal size, skills and power that made him a unique prospect. When he is stronger and faster, he will be very dangerous coming down the wing.

There are also red flags on Fantilli and Carlsson. (Which is normal). We are making a big deal of this draft but apart from Bedard and Michkov, the rest is pretty normal imo.

Compared to Carlsson especially I see the case you make but not Fantilli, his package is too good. Michkov I think is above him as well.

So then compared to Carlsson and Smith, I think there are interesting comparisons to make for sure. Slaf’s prospect profile isn’t to my tastes but I can see the argument that he would go somewhere in the 2023 5-10 range that isn’t desperately needy for a point producing forward (ie not the Habs).

Dylan Cozens and Slaf have low hockey IQ?

Dylan Cozens looked like one of the most well rounded prospects in junior, and Slaf was a puck magnet at the biggest stages before the NHL. He was literally playing god for Slovakia.

Am I missing something here?

Did you watch Slaf play in the NHL this year?

I appreciate you could rate him as a player or rate his potential but his hockey intelligence is lacking big time.

 

[Mrb1p]

I disagree that the NHL is mostly an IQ test.. we are seeing quite the opposite happening between our eyes. Dylan Cozens is getting paid and producing. That's one example of someone with subpar IQ but great physical tools and skills. Fantilli is going to go 2nd overall with similar IQ limitations and will be able to tools himself to a very productive and lucrative career.

The IQ is more of a necessity when you don't have athletic and physical advantages. Dvorsky is more of a victim to IQ than Slafkovsky because of his feet and a lack of stand-out skills outside of his shot. And we have seen that Dvorsky has struggled to use his IQ to his advantage against men to this point.

Cozens doesnt have low IQ, you just were wrong on him, its fine to admit so.

 

[SOLR]

I disagree that the NHL is mostly an IQ test.. we are seeing quite the opposite happening between our eyes. Dylan Cozens is getting paid and producing. That's one example of someone with subpar IQ but great physical tools and skills. Fantilli is going to go 2nd overall with similar IQ limitations and will be able to tools himself to a very productive and lucrative career.

The IQ is more of a necessity when you don't have athletic and physical advantages. Dvorsky is more of a victim to IQ than Slafkovsky because of his feet and a lack of stand-out skills outside of his shot. And we have seen that Dvorsky has struggled to use his IQ to his advantage against men to this point.

Slaf proved that you argument is wrong this year (mostly ineffective, slow learning, concussions issues caused by poor situational awareness), Byfield, Armia, etc. We've been around this question a lot. Cozens had the same issues early. When I say the NHL is an IQ test mostly, I don't mean it in the sense that's it damning players to low performance - physical attributes matter. But, it defines who is a core players. Cozens will never be a core player. Then you have guys like Bergeron, who doesn't have the physical attributes at 18 and make the league + contribute right away, learn the system in a week. They scale quickly. IQ is the super power.

Drai had similar skating challenges as Dvorsky needs to solve, but is IQ made everything work. If you are a low IQ you better have all the rest or you have no shot. If Cozens/Byfield were 5'10'' they would never make the NHL.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Man, its easy to say in hindsight but Sergachev for Drouin, at the time it was done, was a very nice trade for US.

Drouin was absolutely stellar in junior. He carried TBL to the ECF with a rookie Kucherov when stamkos was injured. He had 14 points in 17games as a 20yo, that was after his rant. He played absolutely electric hockey.

He then had 53 points in 73 games the season prior us trading for him.

He was outright a potential star player with an electric style, and at this time, the most promising Quebecois player even above Huberdeau. I think we had a good preview of that when he started a season with 15points in 18games before injuring himself.

I agree with you. Obviously he don't have the "it" or the mental skill necessary to assume his talent but any prospects with his level talent is worthy of a very high draft pick.

Btw, were you referring to Benson or Smith ?

Just prospects in general. I think the concern is more about Smith at this piont, but like some others I think people are just getting cold feet and overreacting a little bit.

People will say ''there are no perfect prospects'' about their guy's faults, and then drop another guy for not being perfect.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

I agree. I hope he will be able to have a couple of good years away and finally display all of his talent.

On the other hand, some thrive here like Subban and Kovalev.

Do you think someone like Wright would have thrived here ?

Frankly, due to the limitations in his game, I don't think Wright will 'thrive' anywhere.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Just prospects in general. I think the concern is more about Smith at this piont, but like some others I think people are just getting cold feet and overreacting a little bit.

People will say ''there are no perfect prospects'' about their guy's faults, and then drop another guy for not being perfect.

This is the time of the year where we get fixated on each prospects individual flaws.

 

[NotProkofievian]

I disagree that the NHL is mostly an IQ test.. we are seeing quite the opposite happening between our eyes. Dylan Cozens is getting paid and producing. That's one example of someone with subpar IQ but great physical tools and skills. Fantilli is going to go 2nd overall with similar IQ limitations and will be able to tools himself to a very productive and lucrative career.

The IQ is more of a necessity when you don't have athletic and physical advantages. Dvorsky is more of a victim to IQ than Slafkovsky because of his feet and a lack of stand-out skills outside of his shot. And we have seen that Dvorsky has struggled to use his IQ to his advantage against men to this point.

I agree. Overvaluing hockey IQ, and overdramatizing over a perceived lack of hockey IQ has been the cause of my worst misses. I mean, sure it seems like I was right about Broberg and Podkolzin, but I was wrong about K'Andre Miller and Cozens. IQ is important, and affects the outcome, the best players have the most of it, and the busts often lack it, but it's just a trait like all the others.

 

[NekkiChiconey]

How would you compare Dvorsky to Wright? Wright's pedigree is much more impressive at this point, but as he seems to plateau since his 15yo season, I'm not sure he's actually a better prospect. I think their traits are pretty similar: Wright's a better skater but not by much, probably has better vision as well, but Dvorsky is definitely more intense.

My point is, with 1 year of hindsight, do we really want a Wright 2.0? Obviously I'm oversymplifiying things here, and I know most of us wanted him last year, but aren't most of Wright's flaws also attributable to Dvorsky?

 

[SOLR]

How would you compare Dvorsky to Wright? Wright's pedigree is much more impressive at this point, but as he seems to plateau since his 15yo season, I'm not sure he's actually a better prospect. I think their traits are pretty similar: Wright's a better skater but not by much, probably has better vision as well, but Dvorsky is definitely more intense.

My point is, with 1 year of hindsight, do we really want a Wright 2.0? Obviously I'm oversymplifiying things here, and I know most of us wanted him last year, but aren't most of Wright's flaws also attributable to Dvorsky?

Dvorsky has nothing in common with Wright; not sure what you are talking about.

 

[NotProkofievian]

How would you compare Dvorsky to Wright? Wright's pedigree is much more impressive at this point, but as he seems to plateau since his 15yo season, I'm not sure he's actually a better prospect. I think their traits are pretty similar: Wright's a better skater but not by much, probably has better vision as well, but Dvorsky is definitely more intense.

My point is, with 1 year of hindsight, do we really want a Wright 2.0? Obviously I'm oversymplifiying things here, and I know most of us wanted him last year, but aren't most of Wright's flaws also attributable to Dvorsky?

He doesn't play like Wright at all. He carries the puck a lot more, and he's more physical. Both are great shooters.

 

[Skip Bayless]

Did you watch Slaf play in the NHL this year?

I appreciate you could rate him as a player or rate his potential but his hockey intelligence is lacking big time.

Just like you, I watched an 18 year old try to play in the best league in the world on small ice for the first time in his life. He played a game of reaction, which is what you always see with players who are not ready to play in the NHL. It doesn't mean he's that player.

There's a difference between lack of hockey IQ and lack of experience. Once Slaf gets used to the patterns of the pro game, he'll be much closer to the player we saw before he was drafted, which is a player who's always at the centre of the action...and that is one of the clearest signs of hockey IQ.

 

[Mrb1p]

How would you compare Dvorsky to Wright? Wright's pedigree is much more impressive at this point, but as he seems to plateau since his 15yo season, I'm not sure he's actually a better prospect. I think their traits are pretty similar: Wright's a better skater but not by much, probably has better vision as well, but Dvorsky is definitely more intense.

My point is, with 1 year of hindsight, do we really want a Wright 2.0? Obviously I'm oversymplifiying things here, and I know most of us wanted him last year, but aren't most of Wright's flaws also attributable to Dvorsky?

Wrights problem is between his ears. Its very tough to assess him as, tools wise, he should be a runaway here. Some people chose to ignore the skill and directly dismiss him, thats fine. Its very confusing how he acted for the past 24 months. I raised questions in late 2021, especially when Wright claimed he "deserved" to be drafted first. (Cringe.)

With all that said, I think 2022 was a gamblers draft, I gambled on the best raw skills, probably the worst draw backs of all (mental health/character) vs size (Cooley) and IQ (Slaf).

If Dvorsky interviews well, and from what weve seen of him playing in J20, Allsvenskan and WJCs, he is not a similar case to SW.

I dont think Dvorsky and Wrights skills are particularly similar, I guess how Wrights using them right now... but even so, Dvorsky is more intense and plays a lot more to the inside.