HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[Goldenhands]

I haven’t watched any this year but it is interesting that Slaf is supposed to be a scrub compared to these guys. I don’t buy it.

I heard many say at the time that Lafreniere was going to be the far better player than Jack Hughes. Hardly the case now.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Slaf compares very favourably to the top end guys in this draft.

Really really hope we go with Reinbacher. Our D will be in tremendous shape. Nice too hear he looked good. I don’t know enough about the team needs of the teams drafting above us but I honestly wouldn’t be too shocked if Reinbacher goes top 4. I think it pretty unlikely but I wouldn’t be shocked

So many dumb takes saying that Slaf wouldnt even be a top 10 pick in this draft... He would be right there with Carlsson and Fantilli.

 

[Kennerback]

So many dumb takes saying that Slaf wouldnt even be a top 10 pick in this draft... He would be right there with Carlsson and Fantilli.

Carlsson is killing it.

Slaf looked much better for Slovakia for the 2 games he played Vs Sweden and USA for the shortened U20 than Dvorsky this year who’s a much less flashy player. Both played on similar teams, similar systems, similar coaching staff. It doesn’t compute in my brain that Dvorsky would succeed better in the NHL than Slafkovsky.

As for Fantilli, he seems to have zero puck luck when playing international tournaments. It’s not that he isn’t getting opportunities. It’s not that he’s looking bad.

 

[SlafySZN]

So many dumb takes saying that Slaf wouldnt even be a top 10 pick in this draft... He would be right there with Carlsson and Fantilli.

I agree. At worst he would be picked 4 or 5.

 

[Goldenhands]

Carlsson is killing it.

Slaf looked much better for Slovakia for the 2 games he played Vs Sweden and USA for the shortened U20 than Dvorsky this year who’s a much less flashy player. Both played on similar teams, similar systems, similar coaching staff. It doesn’t compute in my brain that Dvorsky would succeed better in the NHL than Slafkovsky.

As for Fantilli, he seems to have zero puck luck when playing international tournaments. It’s not that he isn’t getting opportunities. It’s not that he’s looking bad.

Who said that? Dvorsky is a notch below the top tier of this draft, Slaf would slot in quite easily.

Reinbacher and Dvorsky top the 2nd tier as far as Im concerned, but I could see an argument for Smith, Leonard, Benson. That being said, I think Reinbacher has the biggest upside from that 2nd tier and could potentially be added to that top tier.

As for Fantilli, I was not sold on his IQ this year in the NCAA or WJC, but Im not saying he is a dumb player, just that his "average" IQ might prevent him from becoming a dominant top line center. His physical tools are great, so he will obviously become a very solid player, but IQ and finish arent his biggest strengths. Carlsson is better puck possession player and smarter puck manager, the reason Ive had him ranked over Fantilli for quite a while.

 

[Kennerback]

Who said that? Dvorsky is a notch below the top tier of this draft, Slaf would slot in quite easily.

Reinbacher and Dvorsky top the 2nd tier as far as Im concerned, but I could see an argument for Smith, Leonard, Benson. That being said, I think Reinbacher has the biggest upside from that 2nd tier and could potentially be added to that top tier.

As for Fantilli, I was not sold on his IQ this year in the NCAA or WJC, but Im not saying he is a dumb player, just that his "average" IQ might prevent him from becoming a dominant top line center. His physical tools are great, so he will obviously become a very solid player, but IQ and finish arent his biggest strengths. Carlsson is better puck possession player and smarter puck manager, the reason Ive had him ranked over Fantilli for quite a while.

Many earlier this season. And it’s not like Brad Lambert dropping in the rankings. Dvorsky stayed from beginning to the end around the same spot. Draft crop isn’t as good as expected? Dvorsky is way overvalued?

 

[Goldenhands]

Many earlier this season. And it’s not like Brad Lambert dropping in the rankings. Dvorsky stayed from beginning to the end around the same spot. Draft crop isn’t as good as expected? Dvorsky is way overvalued?

Thats awesome at the top, then you have a drop. Dvorsky remains a potential 70 pts center, 35 goals potential, strong 200 ft work and a solid inside game, he still is a very good prospect, but doesnt belong in that top tier of this draft.

 

[InAG-P]

If Smith and Benson are available at 5, who would you take? I know Smith is ranked higher but every time I read or see footage of Benson I can help but think he's the more solid pick?

 

[Mrb1p]

If Smith and Benson are available at 5, who would you take? I know Smith is ranked higher but every time I read or see footage of Benson I can help but think he's the more solid pick?

Benson was ranked ahead of Smith since 2020. Smith was ranked for the first time ahead of Benson, because he dominated a weak division in the u18s and Benson was injured.

My answer is Benson, but Smith is a hell of a prospect too. Hes my 8th prospect and the last one i want with the pick. As in, the last one ill be happy with.

 

[Hacketts]

If Smith and Benson are available at 5, who would you take? I know Smith is ranked higher but every time I read or see footage of Benson I can help but think he's the more solid pick?

You take Smith now, and regret it in a few years when Benson is your heart & soul player racking up points.

 

[Mrb1p]

Can someone give me a compelling argument as to why Smith doesn't turn into Drouin?

Can someone give me a compelling argument why Cristall does?

 

[NotProkofievian]

Can someone give me a compelling argument as to why Smith doesn't turn into Drouin?

Can someone give me a compelling argument why Cristall does?

Sure, Drouin is a talentless bum and neither Will Smith nor Andrew Cristall are.

 

[The Great Weal]

Can someone give me a compelling argument as to why Smith doesn't turn into Drouin?

Can someone give me a compelling argument why Cristall does?

Hockey IQ

 

[Mrb1p]

Sure, Drouin is a talentless bum and neither Will Smith nor Andrew Cristall are.

I mean, thats not very compelling.

Hockey IQ

Yes, but why? Who here said Drouin had IQ problems before he actually busted? Beside me, of course.

 

[NotProkofievian]

I mean, thats not very compelling.

However you project prospects, there has to be a range in your projection. Players aren't the same from year to year, they don't all develop the same way, and so on. Some guys just end up in the left side of that distribution. That's our boy Drou. He has everything except ''it.''

If you find another prospect doing the kinds of things Drouin was doing as a junior, I don't think the lesson to draw from it is ''don't draft him.''

 

[Kshahdoo]

If Michkov comes to the draft and be picked by Montreal one can only imagine what will happen next. Montreal journalists will probably eat him alive trying to get an interview...

 

[ChesterNimitz]

I would be horribly disappointed in this. Would rather take Michkov/Reinbacher at 5. Best scenario is trading up to 4 in this case.

I'd be happy with Cristall and Hrabal though.

Cristall was unimpressive at the recent U18 and was outplayed by a host of U.S. players who will all be there for the taking at 5OA. Frankly, I will be surprised if Cristall goes in the top 20.

 

[ReHabs]

So many dumb takes saying that Slaf wouldnt even be a top 10 pick in this draft... He would be right there with Carlsson and Fantilli.

... you sure about that?

 

[Rob Sense]

If Michkov comes to the draft and be picked by Montreal one can only imagine what will happen next. Montreal journalists will probably eat him alive trying to get an interview...

they do that to all high draft picks...its their thing.

 

[SOLR]

Carlsson is killing it.

Slaf looked much better for Slovakia for the 2 games he played Vs Sweden and USA for the shortened U20 than Dvorsky this year who’s a much less flashy player. Both played on similar teams, similar systems, similar coaching staff. It doesn’t compute in my brain that Dvorsky would succeed better in the NHL than Slafkovsky.

As for Fantilli, he seems to have zero puck luck when playing international tournaments. It’s not that he isn’t getting opportunities. It’s not that he’s looking bad.

Dvorsky was younger than Slaf for the same tournament, plays a harder role, has 2 way skills slaf doesn't even come close, lives on IQ vs. Slaf on athleticism. That's why Dvorsky is a better prospect than Slaf. They also played quite a bit together in these tournaments, at the U18 and when they played together, Dvorsky was the more important player on the line.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Dvorsky was younger than Slaf for the same tournament, plays a harder role, has 2 way skills slaf doesn't even come close, lives on IQ vs. Slaf on athleticism. That's why Dvorsky is a better prospect than Slaf. They also played quite a bit together in these tournaments, at the U18 and when they played together, Dvorsky was the more important player on the line.

Yet in their draft year, Dvorsky doesn't sniff Team Slovakia at the Worlds.. where Slafkovsky went as was one of their most important players.

 

[Vachon23]

He would be right there with Carlsson and Fantilli.

He’s after those guys.. I agree that I’m not sure Will Smith would be draft before Slaf but the top 4 has a step on Slaf

 

[SOLR]

Yet in their draft year, Dvorsky doesn't sniff Team Slovakia at the Worlds.. where Slafkovsky went as was one of their most important players.

You are equating two completely different things (potential vs. pro-readyness). It's not a "IF" "Then" situation at all. "If Slaf plays at the world and Dvorsky doesn't, then Slaf is a better prospect" <== plain no.

Slaf is a lot more pro-ready, it doesn't mean at all he will be the best player or athlete when they are both 23-25 years old. Dvorsky still needs 2-3 years to be at the level of physical development Slaf is now.

+Dvorsky is not 18 yet, don't you have to be 18 to play at the world? Wikipedia says you need a waiver if you are under 18. Maybe Slovakia just out of prudence didn't seek it for Dvorsky since U18 players at the worlds are extremely rare, the kid had 3 international tournaments this year already. Slaf was 18. Bedard is not at the worlds either, he's 17 too - would think he would be selected ahead of Fantilli... Fantilli is 18 1/2 - that's why he's there.

 

[Jaynki]

So many dumb takes saying that Slaf wouldnt even be a top 10 pick in this draft... He would be right there with Carlsson and Fantilli.

Could not agree more!

 

[Jaynki]

However you project prospects, there has to be a range in your projection. Players aren't the same from year to year, they don't all develop the same way, and so on. Some guys just end up in the left side of that distribution. That's our boy Drou. He has everything except ''it.''

If you find another prospect doing the kinds of things Drouin was doing as a junior, I don't think the lesson to draw from it is ''don't draft him.''

Man, its easy to say in hindsight but Sergachev for Drouin, at the time it was done, was a very nice trade for US.

Drouin was absolutely stellar in junior. He carried TBL to the ECF with a rookie Kucherov when stamkos was injured. He had 14 points in 17games as a 20yo, that was after his rant. He played absolutely electric hockey.

He then had 53 points in 73 games the season prior us trading for him.

He was outright a potential star player with an electric style, and at this time, the most promising Quebecois player even above Huberdeau. I think we had a good preview of that when he started a season with 15points in 18games before injuring himself.

I agree with you. Obviously he don't have the "it" or the mental skill necessary to assume his talent but any prospects with his level talent is worthy of a very high draft pick.

Btw, were you referring to Benson or Smith ?

 

[Jaynki]

... you sure about that?

I also think he would be right up there with Fantilli and Carlsson. Not saying he would be above them but in the debate with them.

We made a big deal of his dubious liiga production but he had very strong metrics, stronger than productive player like Kemell.

We wanted to diminish his olympic games and his world cup. But we can see with the current performance of Fantilli and Carlsson that what Slaf did was actually very, very impressive. And its not a knock on Carlsson or Fantilli, they are very good. Its really about what Slaf has done. Slaf had 9 points on 20 total team Slovakia goal.

When we combine Slafkovsky performance at the Hlinka, Olympic Games, World Cup, end of season and playoffs where he doubled his output per/60. I think we have something way more telling than his first half of season in the Liiga.

Its really all of this combined with the unique package of abnormal size, skills and power that made him a unique prospect. When he is stronger and faster, he will be very dangerous coming down the wing.

There are also red flags on Fantilli and Carlsson. (Which is normal). We are making a big deal of this draft but apart from Bedard and Michkov, the rest is pretty normal imo.