HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[26Mats]

He's looked better recently than when he first came back from injury & still looked hurt. He's a player, who usually makes the right play at the right time, offensively & defensively. He processes the game quickly at WHL level for sure. His compete at both ends is excellent.

The biggest concern with him is that he's had an injury the last 2 years now, so I wonder about his durability once he hits the NHL where players are faster, stronger & more physical.

Smith is definitely more offensively dynamic, and is much more of find soft ice & exploit it type player. He can sometimes force plays too much, and needs to work on his defensive game, but he's not completely incompetent there. He did well against a heavy forechecking Swedish team.

I wouldn't be surprised if Montreal picks neither. Lol

so if Michkov's on their do not draft list, or the big 4 go 1 through 4, who do they take?

 

[Hannibal]

Looks like Reinbacher avoided the worst. He's out tomorrow but might return later. The exact term used is "comeback later is possible"

The knee? Austria worried about youngster David Reinbacher

The 18-year-old draft prospect from EHC Kloten left the game against Sweden early. But, apparently, it is nothing too serious.

www.swisshockeynews.ch

Just let him heal properly and don’t risk anything stupid long term for 1-2 or 3 draft ranks.

 

[WeThreeKings]

so if Michkov's on their do not draft list, or the big 4 go 1 through 4, who do they take?

Probably looking at Reinbacher, Dvorsky and Leonard.

Benson and Wood should be in the conversation.

Will Smith is the likely pick if Michkov goes top 4 since I just don't see anyone passing on Carlsson.

 

[26Mats]

Probably looking at Reinbacher, Dvorsky and Leonard.

Benson and Wood should be in the conversation.

Will Smith is the likely pick if Michkov goes top 4 since I just don't see anyone passing on Carlsson.

I think it will be Smith but Markovsknee was wondering if both he and Benson wouldn't be the pick, evem if the big 4 go top 4.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I think it will be Smith but Markovsknee was wondering if both he and Benson wouldn't be the pick, evem if the big 4 go top 4.

If it's not Smith or Benson, then we can assume they are looking for size as part of the skill package.

Probably Dvorsky or Reinbacher. Leonard is shorter than Smith, in actuality.

 

[ReHabs]

What are you talking about. Suzuki was on pace for over 100 pts at one point this year but that's unreasonable. But I'm 95% sure if Suzuki played with Dach and Caufield the whole season, he would averaged at least a PPG and Caufield would gotten 40-50 Gs probably.

Well, until they do it — they’re not PPG.

Pacioretty tried very hard to score 40 and never managed it, even if he took as many empty netters as he could.

In any case, more PPG players is better. We have zero. Let’s start with one.

 

[SlafySZN]

Really warming up to the idea of Leonard…

 

[Egresch]

Suzuki, CC, and Dach are not PPG and have never even flirted with it. It is not right to place such expectations on these otherwise very good and important players.

Suzuki had 66 points under terrible circumstances in 2 half of the season. Give him CC, Dach (or PLD) and Matheson for full season and I definitely expect him to be PPG player.
Just slightly improve our PP and he will be PPG. Michkov, Benson or Smith are not even NHL ready and you alredy see them as PPG. Does not make any sense.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

I watched some playoff footage from Extraliga recently and it changed my opinion on him. I actually didn't like him at all from watching the international games.

He gives me career Euro Leaguer vibes after an unsuccessful stint in the NHL but he has the talent to make such a prediction look asinine a decade from now. I wouldn't have considered him if we still had the 17th pick but would definitely roll the dice if he fell to 29.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

delete

 

[MarkovsKnee]

so if Michkov's on their do not draft list, or the big 4 go 1 through 4, who do they take?

I don't think that Michkov is on their DND list.

Hughes has said 2 things about this draft:

1. If there is a talent equal to Michkov, Michkov will lose that competition.

2. They'll take the BPA.

Both can be true. Say Columbus takes Will Smith, and San Jose decides they want Reinbacher or ASP at #4 for some reason

Montreal takes Carlsson over Michkov according to #1. Carlsson has #1 elite center upside.

But, if all of Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, & Smith are gone in top 4 then I believe Montreal takes Michkov. He's BPA at that point - particularly for forwards. They'd have to believe that Reinbacher or ASP are equal to not select him.

However, I also think Michkov gets drafted by San Jose leaving Smith, Leonard, Reinbacher as my favorites at the #5 spot.

All 3 I have slightly favored over Benson.

It should be noted that Benson himself has said that he's had a number of conversations already with Montreal's WHL scout over the last 2 years. So while people might be getting pissy over Benson's drop in rankings and overall lack of attention recently that is not reflective of Montreal's dealings with him. I wouldn't be disappointed at all if he was our pick. It's not an easy choice. You're essentially nitpicking each player's shortcomings as they're all really close in skill level.

 

[SlafySZN]

I like him alot but prefer both of his linemates, I would even entertain the thought of taking Perreault ahead of Smith as I think Perreault's intangibles are much better. I feel like Perreault is the real creator on that line as he just has NHL level vision/instincts that open up many of the lines chances.

I think all 3 are future NHLers but I think Leonard is significantly less of an offensive catalyst than Smith or Perreault and I question how effective he will be with his style of play against much bigger NHLers who he can't easily bully off the puck like he has been able to do so far. He is still avery good prospect but he is not at all what I want HuGo to be aiming for with the 5th OA selection. I want a player that has the potential to produce at a high level in the NHL and not an entirely complimentary piece.

I take all of Michkov, Smith, Dvorsky, Perreault, Wood and Reinbacher ahead of Leonard but I do agree that I would love to have him in the system if we were outside of the top 10.

I don’t see Dvorsky having the same or better offensive projection than Leonard.

Perreault is good but Leonard has more tools to produce in the NHL in my opinion.

He is not the ‘’sexy’’ pick but i think he has a higher offensive ceiling than people think.

 

[Mrb1p]

I just don't get the hype with But.

Hes big and has great hands but theres nothing there aside from that. Mid 2nd for me.

I'm not exactly Grant with him but he's a big toolsy guy with soft hands, a good shot, and good vision. If you believe in the ability of your development team to get the most out of him, he's a pretty obvious pick in the late 1st.

But has nowhere near a good shot.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I don’t see Dvorsky having the same or better offensive projection than Leonard.

Perreault is good but Leonard has more tools to produce in the NHL in my opinion.

He is not the ‘’sexy’’ pick but i think he has a higher offensive ceiling than people think.

They are different.

Skating goes to Leonard
Hands goes to Leonard
Shooting goes to Dvorsky
Playmaking is a wash, neither are all that impressive.
Puck protection goes to Dvorsky.

Then Dvorsky has the better defensive game, is a center, etc.

I have Leonard slightly ahead because I think he can get himself open a bit more, but the margin is razor thin.

 

[ReHabs]

Suzuki had 66 points under terrible circumstances in 2 half of the season. Give him CC, Dach (or PLD) and Matheson for full season and I definitely expect him to be PPG player.
Just slightly improve our PP and he will be PPG. Michkov, Benson or Smith are not even NHL ready and you alredy see them as PPG. Does not make any sense.

We are in the thread about the entry draft, everything we say about the prospects refers to their upside in an ideal or optimal world.

It’s perfectly clear to me that the Habs need to draft prospects with attainable PPG+ upside in addition to the continued growth of Suzuki, Caufield, and Dach. Those high skill prospects tend to appear most consistently in the top10 or top5 of the entry draft.

Good teams have scoring depth and we do not have a good team. I am not sure why you wanted to needle me for something so straightforward. I don’t think this 5OA draft pick should be spent on a prospect with middle6 upside no matter what his intangibles feel like.

 

[26Mats]

I don't think that Michkov is on their DND list.

Hughes has said 2 things about this draft:

1. If there is a talent equal to Michkov, Michkov will lose that competition.

2. They'll take the BPA.

Both can be true. Say Columbus takes Will Smith, and San Jose decides they want Reinbacher or ASP at #4 for some reason

Montreal takes Carlsson over Michkov according to #1. Carlsson has #1 elite center upside.

But, if all of Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson, & Smith are gone in top 4 then I believe Montreal takes Michkov. He's BPA at that point - particularly for forwards. They'd have to believe that Reinbacher or ASP are equal to not select him.

However, I also think Michkov gets drafted by San Jose leaving Smith, Leonard, Reinbacher as my favorites at the #5 spot.

All 3 I have slightly favored over Benson.

It should be noted that Benson himself has said that he's had a number of conversations already with Montreal's WHL scout over the last 2 years. So while people might be getting pissy over Benson's drop in rankings and overall lack of attention recently that is not reflective of Montreal's dealings with him. I wouldn't be disappointed at all if he was our pick. It's not an easy choice. You're essentially nitpicking each player's shortcomings as they're all really close in skill level.

Note: Hughes said at this point if there's a talent equal to Michkov Michkov will lose that competition, but that they still haven't completed their investigation into the Russian factor. He said they wanted to wait until after the lottery, because if they won the lottery, there would be no need to spend such time, because they'd be picking Bedard.

I also think San Jose or Anaheim pick Michkov, and he's not available at 5.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Note: Hughes said at this point if there's a talent equal to Michkov Michkov will lose that competition, but that they still haven't completed their investigation into the Russian factor. He said they wanted to wait until after the lottery, because if they won the lottery, there would be no need to spend such time, because they'd be picking Bedard.

I also think San Jose or Anaheim pick Michkov, and he's not available at 5.

I can't see Anaheim at 2 picking Michkov. There's 2 other prospects in Fantilli/Carlsson who would go 1OA in a lot of years without any risk profile.

 

[26Mats]

I can't see Anaheim at 2 picking Michkov. There's 2 other prospects in Fantilli/Carlsson who would go 1OA in a lot of years without any risk profile.

I don't think it's probable, but I'm not in Anaheim's war room. So I just mention it since I can't for sure exclude the possibility. But I can exclude the possibility of Chicago or Columbus taking him.

But yeah, highly probable that whether Michkov is available at 5 only comes down to whether or not San Jose want him.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I don't think it's probable, but I'm not in Anaheim's war room. So I just mention it since I can't for sure exclude the possibility. But I can exclude the possibility of Chicago or Columbus taking him.

But yeah, highly probable that whether Michkov is available at 5 only comes down to whether or not San Jose want him.

That's really all I see..

Anaheim has #2 and can get Fantilli or Carlsson.
Columbus has already excluded Michkov.

We sit at 5 and if we aren't gonna take Michkov in any circumstance, hope they take him and we get Smith. If they don't, then things get shitty for us.

But if Anaheim goes Fantilli at 2
and Columbus takes Smith at 3

We need to blow up San Jose's phone for Carlsson.

 

[26Mats]

That's really all I see..

Anaheim has #2 and can get Fantilli or Carlsson.
Columbus has already excluded Michkov.

We sit at 5 and if we aren't gonna take Michkov in any circumstance, hope they take him and we get Smith. If they don't, then things get shitty for us.

But if Anaheim goes Fantilli at 2
and Columbus takes Smith at 3

We need to blow up San Jose's phone for Carlsson.

Yeah, you're a big Carlsson guy. I'm a big Michkov guy.

So the same reasons you would blow up San Jose's phone for Carlsson are those I would for Michkov.

 

[Vachon23]

I do like Danny Nelson's profile as a pick at 37.

Good size/skating/shot, very young (August birthday), switched from defenseman to winger to center in the past two years, stuck on the bottom 6 on a loaded USNTDP team.

That's a potenital breakout if I've ever seen one.

I’m intrigue about that profil. Being able to switch position like that show me a good hockey IQ

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

I don’t see Dvorsky having the same or better offensive projection than Leonard.

Perreault is good but Leonard has more tools to produce in the NHL in my opinion.

He is not the ‘’sexy’’ pick but i think he has a higher offensive ceiling than people think.

Very strongly disagree on the first two but you could be right on the third.

The most important tools for offensive production imo are hockey IQ and puck skill and if a player can shoot the puck then you have the potential for a superstar. I see Perreault's offensive upside being similar to typical Claude Giroux production and Leonard closer to typical Zach Hyman/Bo Horvat production. All 3 of Smith, Perreault and Leonard can shoot and Leonard is both the fastest and strongest of the trio but both Smith and Perreault exhibit higher hockey IQ and better puck skills and I value both of these over speed and strength when evaluating offensive potential. If Leonard was taller I would like his game alot more but he is on the small side for the play style that he is looking to take to the NHL.

Perhaps Leonard ends up as the best offensive player of the three but I really don't see it....... I have been wrong before and just may be again as there is so much development still ahead for all three..

 

[WeThreeKings]

There's enough intriguing options in round 2.. that we need to find a way to turn Allen and Edmundson into some 2nd round picks.

 

[Skip Bayless]

There's enough intriguing options in round 2.. that we need to find a way to turn Allen and Edmundson into some 2nd round picks.

Could see Edmonton finally biting.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

There's enough intriguing options in round 2.. that we need to find a way to turn Allen and Edmundson into some 2nd round picks.

That would be incredible but I don't think Allen has any chance of fetching that and Udmundson's stock has plummeted since last season. Agreed though, if someone is willing to pay that price then Hughes has to jump all over it.