HF Habs: 2023 NHL Draft part 2

[Playmaker09]

Even above Michkov or Smith?

Absolutely over Smith. Not that I'd be too upset with him either, mind you.

So long as it's not Dvorsky or Reinbacher I'm good.

 

[bcv]

Nay...Matthew Wood could easily turn out to be a slightly better version of Michael McCarron.

lmao

 

[WeThreeKings]

That might be the worst Matthew Wood take I've seen.

 

[Andrei79]

Matthew Wood will be a poor man's Hugh Jessiman, on his best days.

 

[SOLR]

Matthew Wood, will be a poor man Tiger Woods, very good on Sunday, good in the bunker (front of the net) and with a lot of mental toughness!

 

[JoelWarlord]

I don't understand why people are so down on Reinbacher, people are acting like he projects as a Brandon Carlo or something. There's only a handful of guys in the world that can skate/handle the puck like Makar, we can't just like...write off any defenceman that doesn't skate like one of the 10 best skaters in the history of the sport forever. Even the most basic lazy statwatching hockeydb scouting shows 22P in 46 games as a draft eligible 6'2 defenceman playing top pair minutes in a legitimate good pro league, how are people spinning that as somehow a low upside pick?

Should he have just played shit defence to put up 4 more points or gone to the CHL and done a bunch of spinoramas and dipsy doodles against 16 year olds to assuage fears that a prospect with great numbers (literally the 2nd best draft year Swiss league point total behind only Matthews as a DEFENCEMAN) but not video game numbers isn't some untalented slug? Bizzare. This isn't even like Slafkovsky where you have to look deeper at the tournament numbers and the timing of his season or anything to get why he's valued, he had 22 points in the same league where Roman Josi had 8 points in his draft year, just the most basic statwatching makes him a reasonable pick at 5 if we're not taking Michkov.

I get preferring a forward and it's fine if people would rather Smith/Benson or whoever over Reinbacher, I definitely won't be upset with either of those guys (or even Wood for that matter) but I really do not understand all these "as long as it's not Reinbacher" takes as if he's some plug with hands of stone.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Ok boys..

Matthew Mania is him.

 

[SOLR]

I don't understand why people are so down on Reinbacher, people are acting like he projects as a Brandon Carlo or something. There's only a handful of guys in the world that can skate/handle the puck like Makar, we can't just like...write off any defenceman that doesn't skate like one of the 10 best skaters in the history of the sport forever. Even the most basic lazy statwatching hockeydb scouting shows 22P in 46 games as a draft eligible 6'2 defenceman in a legitimate good pro league, how are people spinning that as somehow a low upside pick?

Should he have just played shit defence to put up 4 more points or gone to the CHL and done a bunch of spinoramas and dipsy doodles against 16 year olds to assuage fears that a prospect with great numbers but not video game numbers isn't some untalented slug? Bizzare.

I get preferring a forward and it's fine if people would rather Smith/Benson or whoever over Reinbacher, I definitely won't be upset with either of those guys (or even Wood for that matter) but I really do not understand all these "as long as it's not Reinbacher" takes as if he's some plug with hands of stone.

Youuu youuu I like your style youuu

 

[JoelWarlord]

Matthew Wood, will be a poor man Tiger Woods, very good on Sunday, good in the bunker (front of the net) and with a lot of mental toughness!

Will he be as good as Tiger was when wearing red? Would be a good pick for us in that case.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Ok boys..

Matthew Mania is him.

But why...

 

[WeThreeKings]

But why...

Feel like he is being slept on because he doesn't have the production but if you compare him to someone like Luca Cagnoni who has way more production (where a lot is PP production), you can see there's a lot more to that tool kit.

He's a bit of a jitterbug out there, some easy shift and power in his skating with some creative hands and plays. Likes to deceive with his puck control.

Yeah there's work to do defensively, but he may actually have the highest offensive upside of any CHL defenseman not named Lukas Dragicevic but he has way better feet.

 

[Takeru]

I don't understand why people are so down on Reinbacher, people are acting like he projects as a Brandon Carlo or something. There's only a handful of guys in the world that can skate/handle the puck like Makar, we can't just like...write off any defenceman that doesn't skate like one of the 10 best skaters in the history of the sport forever. Even the most basic lazy statwatching hockeydb scouting shows 22P in 46 games as a draft eligible 6'2 defenceman playing top pair minutes in a legitimate good pro league, how are people spinning that as somehow a low upside pick?

Should he have just played shit defence to put up 4 more points or gone to the CHL and done a bunch of spinoramas and dipsy doodles against 16 year olds to assuage fears that a prospect with great numbers (literally the 2nd best draft year Swiss league point total behind only Matthews as a DEFENCEMAN) but not video game numbers isn't some untalented slug? Bizzare. This isn't even like Slafkovsky where you have to look deeper at the tournament numbers and the timing of his season or anything to get why he's valued, he had 22 points in the same league where Roman Josi had 8 points in his draft year, just the most basic statwatching makes him a reasonable pick at 5 if we're not taking Michkov.

I get preferring a forward and it's fine if people would rather Smith/Benson or whoever over Reinbacher, I definitely won't be upset with either of those guys (or even Wood for that matter) but I really do not understand all these "as long as it's not Reinbacher" takes as if he's some plug with hands of stone.

I haven't read all the threads but I don't see that many people being down on Reinbacher or expecting such disappointment if we were to draft him as much as you see for Dvorsky for instance.

He's probably not getting as much attention as he could due to rising throughout the year + this year being advertised as a strong forward crop draft.

Given nothing changes in the top 4, I'd be ok with either him or Smith at 5 above the other available options.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Feel like he is being slept on because he doesn't have the production but if you compare him to someone like Luca Cagnoni who has way more production (where a lot is PP production), you can see there's a lot more to that tool kit.

He's a bit of a jitterbug out there, some easy shift and power in his skating with some creative hands and plays. Likes to deceive with his puck control.

Yeah there's work to do defensively, but he may actually have the highest offensive upside of any CHL defenseman not named Lukas Dragicevic but he has way better feet.

Yeah we can pick him. That's what I mean when I say a ''sleeper pick.'' Someone with an awesome tool or two that just hasn't put things together yet.

 

[Jaynki]

Absolutely over Smith. Not that I'd be too upset with him either, mind you.

So long as it's not Dvorsky or Reinbacher I'm good.

Above Michkov?

Personally, if we skip Michkov, i would not have no problem with either of Benson, Dvorsky and Reinbacher but i would not understand it and if they fail their shot man will it look bad.

 

[Jaynki]

I don't understand why people are so down on Reinbacher, people are acting like he projects as a Brandon Carlo or something. There's only a handful of guys in the world that can skate/handle the puck like Makar, we can't just like...write off any defenceman that doesn't skate like one of the 10 best skaters in the history of the sport forever. Even the most basic lazy statwatching hockeydb scouting shows 22P in 46 games as a draft eligible 6'2 defenceman playing top pair minutes in a legitimate good pro league, how are people spinning that as somehow a low upside pick?

Should he have just played shit defence to put up 4 more points or gone to the CHL and done a bunch of spinoramas and dipsy doodles against 16 year olds to assuage fears that a prospect with great numbers (literally the 2nd best draft year Swiss league point total behind only Matthews as a DEFENCEMAN) but not video game numbers isn't some untalented slug? Bizzare. This isn't even like Slafkovsky where you have to look deeper at the tournament numbers and the timing of his season or anything to get why he's valued, he had 22 points in the same league where Roman Josi had 8 points in his draft year, just the most basic statwatching makes him a reasonable pick at 5 if we're not taking Michkov.

I get preferring a forward and it's fine if people would rather Smith/Benson or whoever over Reinbacher, I definitely won't be upset with either of those guys (or even Wood for that matter) but I really do not understand all these "as long as it's not Reinbacher" takes as if he's some plug with hands of stone.

You are making very valuable point and i do believe Reinbacher has legitimate top pairing upside. He would be a terrific fit with Guhle.

Problem is, it is tough to see the big offfense in him and i don't see him running a PP. Hence is why he os probably a "disappointing pick" at 5, especially above Michkov. But yeah, he ia definitely a very solid prospect

 

[WeThreeKings]

Yeah we can pick him. That's what I mean when I say a ''sleeper pick.'' Someone with an awesome tool or two that just hasn't put things together yet.

Yeah he's definitely one of them. I just punched him up my board with a rocket while I'm doing some final viewings.

 

[Playmaker09]

Above Michkov?

Personally, if we skip Michkov, i would not have no problem with either of Benson, Dvorsky and Reinbacher but i would not understand it and if they fail their shot man will it look bad.

No, the top 4 are set in stone.

Here's to hoping Carlsson has the worst World Championships possible so that SJS/CBJ galaxy brain a Smith pick.

 

[willzyix]

I’m no scout but watching some tape on Smith and he reminds me a lot of Kovalev lol. Might be a weird comparable but his combo of hands, shot, and underrated passing had me think of Kovy.

Doesn’t have the size and hopefully has better compete though. Wouldn’t be mad if we picked him up at 5.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Problem is, it is tough to see the big offfense in him and i don't see him running a PP.

I get this, but I guess my rebuttal would be "I disagree" to the first part, and "who cares?" to the 2nd part. I don't think he ever projects as a guy that will put up 60+ points but I don't think that means he isn't going to be really effective offensively. Reinbacher to me looks like the kind of guy that can put up 30-40 points on a matchup pair and that's absolutely big offence to me. I also think points vs actual offence is a bit fuzzy for a defenceman and they aren't always the same thing.

For example, Chris Wideman had 27P in 64 games in 21-22, and Shea Weber had 19P in 48 games in the 20-21 season, which is about a 25P pace. Would anyone ever possibly argue that 21-22 Chris Wideman was somehow more effective at creating offence than 20-21 Weber was? I certainly wouldn't, and there are a ton of defencemen who create lots of offence without necessarily having video game point totals. Does Tyson Barrie create more offence than prime Shea Weber did? etc.

As for the PP side of things, I agree he also doesn't project as a great PP1 guy, but once again my response would just be...who cares? The Canes have been highly successful splitting the role in two with Slavin as their actual #1D and rotating Hamilton/DeAngelo/Burns into their PP1 slot and basically just min-maxing both parts of the role. Montreal has Matheson in place now, and Hutson on the way, plus Mailloux as a guy who potentially has that PP1 profile. If Reinbacher projected as a legit PP1 stud he'd be in discussion with Fantilli to go #2 and likely not available to us in the first place as well.

To be clear I get that you're saying that Reinbacher is good and you're not trying to rag on him, I just wanted to use your post as a broader jumping off point for a discussion.

 

[Jaynki]

I get this, but I guess my rebuttal would be "I disagree" to the first part, and "who cares?" to the 2nd part. I don't think he ever projects as a guy that will put up 60+ points but I don't think that means he isn't going to be really effective offensively. Reinbacher to me looks like the kind of guy that can put up 30-40 points on a matchup pair and that's absolutely big offence to me. I also think points vs actual offence is a bit fuzzy for a defenceman and they aren't always the same thing.

For example, Chris Wideman had 27P in 64 games in 21-22, and Shea Weber had 19P in 48 games in the 20-21 season, which is about a 25P pace. Would anyone ever possibly argue that 21-22 Chris Wideman was somehow more effective at creating offence than 20-21 Weber was? I certainly wouldn't, and there are a ton of defencemen who create lots of offence without necessarily having video game point totals. Does Tyson Barrie create more offence than prime Shea Weber did? etc.

As for the PP side of things, I agree he also doesn't project as a great PP1 guy, but once again my response would just be...who cares? The Canes have been highly successful splitting the role in two with Slavin as their actual #1D and rotating Hamilton/DeAngelo/Burns into their PP1 slot and basically just min-maxing both parts of the role. Montreal has Matheson in place now, and Hutson on the way, plus Mailloux as a guy who potentially has that PP1 profile. If Reinbacher projected as a legit PP1 stud he'd be in discussion with Fantilli to go #2 and likely not available to us in the first place as well.

To be clear I get that you're saying that Reinbacher is good and you're not trying to rag on him, I just wanted to use your post as a broader jumping off point for a discussion.

Again, you are making very valid points. I think we are pretty much saying the same things but disagreeing on a single point.

Reinbacher is a solid prospects and i agree with you that he projects as a top pairing 30-40 points defenseman, which is a very good player and a rare commodity.

The thing is, a lot of people cares about high end offense because it is the hardest things to find in hockey. In fact, we haven't had a PPG player since Kovalev.

So since we have a shot at a potential all octane offense PPG player at 5 overall, whomever it is between Fantiili, Carlsson, Smith or Michkov, even Benson. It would be ''disappointing'' to draft Reinbacher above one of them. Disappointing here being very, very relative.

 

[MtlSars]

I don't understand why people are so down on Reinbacher, people are acting like he projects as a Brandon Carlo or something. There's only a handful of guys in the world that can skate/handle the puck like Makar, we can't just like...write off any defenceman that doesn't skate like one of the 10 best skaters in the history of the sport forever. Even the most basic lazy statwatching hockeydb scouting shows 22P in 46 games as a draft eligible 6'2 defenceman playing top pair minutes in a legitimate good pro league, how are people spinning that as somehow a low upside pick?

Should he have just played shit defence to put up 4 more points or gone to the CHL and done a bunch of spinoramas and dipsy doodles against 16 year olds to assuage fears that a prospect with great numbers (literally the 2nd best draft year Swiss league point total behind only Matthews as a DEFENCEMAN) but not video game numbers isn't some untalented slug? Bizzare. This isn't even like Slafkovsky where you have to look deeper at the tournament numbers and the timing of his season or anything to get why he's valued, he had 22 points in the same league where Roman Josi had 8 points in his draft year, just the most basic statwatching makes him a reasonable pick at 5 if we're not taking Michkov.

I get preferring a forward and it's fine if people would rather Smith/Benson or whoever over Reinbacher, I definitely won't be upset with either of those guys (or even Wood for that matter) but I really do not understand all these "as long as it's not Reinbacher" takes as if he's some plug with hands of stone.

He doesn't have clear number 1D written all over him.

He might be the best Defensemen out of the 2023 class but that's not saying much.
He doesn't even have the pedigree of a Jake Sanderson or a Mintyukov,Korchinski Mateychuk.

With the available offense potential available with a Top 5 pick in this draft, if you walk away with a top 4D then shame on us. I keep seeing the Moritz Seider comparison but I doubt he lives up to that as well.

You draft Kaiden Ghule and Justin Barron at 16 and 23 ..not 5th Overall...

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

He doesn't have clear number 1D written all over him.

He might be the best Defensemen out of the 2023 class but that's not saying much.
He doesn't even have the pedigree of a Jake Sanderson or a Mintyukov,Korchinski Mateychuk.

With the available offense potential available with a Top 5 pick in this draft, if you walk away with a top 4D then shame on us. I keep seeing the Moritz Seider comparison but I doubt he lives up to that as well.

You draft Kaiden Ghule and Justin Barron at 16 and 23 ..not 5th Overall...

2024 draft looks to be loaded on elite RD so taking Reinbacher for me is a no go unless Habs are actively trading down the draft for him and another asset. Also put some respect on Guhles name. In 5 years, he'll be a definite top 8 in a redraft

 

[JoelWarlord]

He doesn't have clear number 1D written all over him.

Didn't say that he did, but nobody else in consideration after Michkov has clear first-line forward written all over them either. I've used this comparison before but what if Reinbacher is an Ekholm level player and Benson/Smith top out as a Filip Forsberg level 1st line but non-elite forward? Is that really some horrible outcome? Just because we want there to be an elite 1st line forward talent available at 5 doesn't mean there actually is (excluding Michkov of course, who is my preferred pick by far).

He might be the best Defensemen out of the 2023 class but that's not saying much.
He doesn't even have the pedigree of a Jake Sanderson or a Mintyukov,Korchinski Mateychuk.

Sanderson sure, but what have Korchinski or Mateychuk done to prove they have a higher pedigree? Junior points? I like both of those guys just fine, but I don't find PPG in the CHL from a D+1 player to be more impressive than 22P in 46 games from a draft age right shot D with size and good skating ability in a legitimate pro league playing top pair minutes.

Once again, Reinbacher just had the 2nd best draft-year production in the Swiss league ever, and 1st place was Auston Matthews. He put up nearly 3x the 8 points that Josi managed in the same league in his draft year. 22P in a legit Euro league for a draft-age player is not small potatoes for a defenceman, particularly when they have a well-rounded game and aren't cheating to put up points.

With the available offense potential available with a Top 5 pick in this draft, if you walk away with a top 4D then shame on us. I keep seeing the Moritz Seider comparison but I doubt he lives up to that as well.

You draft Kaiden Ghule and Justin Barron at 16 and 23 ..not 5th Overall...

Would you trade Kaiden Guhle for Alex Lafreniere, Lucas Raymond, or Quinton Byfield right now? Every draft has a different internal tier list and you can't just typecast players to box them in or out of a particular range. Draft year Guhle went 16th because draft year Guhle didn't show anything near draft year Reinbacher's offensive upside.

He's had outstanding development since that time but he was not the same type of prospect in 2020. It doesn't make much sense to punish Reinbacher at the 2023 draft for showing that offensive skill at 18 instead of needing 2 post-draft years to develop that offensive touch the way Guhle did. It's also a weird argument because you can easily put Guhle in the top 8 or even as high as 4 in a 2020 redraft, only Stutzle, Mercer, and Sanderson are definitively 100% ahead right now.

I get it, you want a forward and I understand that. I have no problem with Smith or Benson being our pick, but this idea that Reinbacher is some huge reach and in the same tier as Justin Barron and not in the same tier as Benson/Smith is a real stretch for me.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

You see more of his inside game with a some of these highlights. If we pass on Michkov, I think I could live with Dalibor as our pick. One of the youngest kids in the draft, and already has such a solid toolkit. Give him time with our development staff and I think this kid could be an absolute force in a few years.

I might take him over Smith

 

[Vachon23]

Mintyukov,Korchinski Mateychuk.

I’m taking Reinbacher before those guys